ckleinhe

the trouble with predicting NE backfield has one benefit: lowers the ADP of its running backs. Ridley is actually a decent target this year. A successful runner, and NE has trended towards being a run-heavy team.

i love MFL10s. the only problem with using them as a gauge for ADP is that the strategy is different: no trades, waivers, or lineup decisions means different players and positions have much more or less value than they do in a normal redraft league. still it's lots of fun and a valuable exercise. several sites have tools that help you gauge adp. i think fantasy pros has one for example, not sure of others. unless you can adjust the scoring/lineup settings to match your league, the value of mock drafts is questionable.

1. drafting gronk doesn't hinder you at any other position. the dropoff in point production at TE is much steeper than at WR or RB, so replacing wr/rb production later in the draft is much more feasible. 2. real beneficiaries are probably brady and aaron dobson, who can thrive downfield if gronk commands middle of the field attention. 3. might hurt ridley/running backs, as some red zone/goal line runs likely become gronk targets instead. 4. risk of re-injury and missed time is real, so adjust accordingly.

there's a good case for patterson's breakout, but it's still just potential. some thoughts: his total production last year was pretty comparable to tavon austin. anybody excited about tavon? he has either a sub-par or rookie qb his upside is priced in to his adp: no margin for error

lots of good points, but look at Cam's passer rating or adjusted yards/attempt when targeting specific receivers: it's pretty much the same no matter who the receiver is/was. what that suggests is that his passing success belongs to him, not the receivers. in other words, steve smith and brandon lafell didn't 'make' cam, cam did. so swapping out an aging, decling smiff and underwhelming lafell shouldn't really matter. no reason to expect a dropoff, imo.

devonta freeman, cj anderson, and lorenzo taliaferro might the criteria. not impressed with freeman's talent but a good offense if he gets playing time. ditto anderson. taliaferro i think has talent and probably opportunity at least early on if ray rice is suspended. another may be andre williams in new york. not a pass catcher, but a good runner. rashad jennings probably has the job locked down, but if he goes down williams is a better "lead" back than any of their other backs. not sure they're sleepers any more but terrance west and jeremy hill in cle/cin should both play right away too.

i like terrance williams better than sanders. first, t-will is clearly the #2 wr on a good offense, and the #3 target after Dez/Witten, that can probably improve under scott linehan. i can definitely see him having a great season. as for sanders, he hasn't impressed so far, including last year when he had lots of opportunity with no mike wallace or markus wheaton around. roethlisberger definitely < manning, but he is a decent qb. that's a red flag to me. then in denver, which i know can support a lot of players from a fantasy perspective, you've got plenty of other established targets in demaryius, julius, and welker. sanders starts off as the fourth target probably, plus denver drafted cody latimer. sanders basically has to be good enough to keep latimer off the field and siphon targets away from welker. i do think he'll have a solid season but maybe not top 25.

ahmad bradshaw is a decent play. if healthy he'll have a substantial role in a good offense. charles johnson is good too, and meets the "deep sleeper" idea pretty well. jarvis landry i agree with also. production don't lie. ditto josh huff. i actually like albert wilson in kansas city more than aj jenkins. if jenkins were going to do something he'd have done it by now. plus he wasn't picked by this front office. i know wilson is an UDFA but he's a very good player. lorenzo taliaferro may not be "deep" anymore but with rice facing suspension and possibly declining, and pierce coming off injury and underwhelming, he has a shot to play early in a kubiak (i.e. made arian foster a star) offense.

DT is absolutely worth keeping, IMO. He might make it back to you at pick 13, buy why chance it? For fantasy purposes he's right there with Calvin Johnson for top prospect. I wouldn't bother keeping Sproles at all. First, if Shady McCoy gets injured, it's probably Chris Polk who takes over, not Sproles. Second, Philly has a lot of mouths to feed. Third, he's a 30+ year old player at an oft-injured position whose old team was happy to part with.

i think either way you go is fine.

the other thing to consider is volatility, of two sorts. first is health volatility: RBs get injured more than other positions do. second is scoring volatility: RB scoring is more volatile than any other position. so after the "safe" RBs (btw, remember that half of the "safe round 1 RBs" last year busted), these two factors really favor the other positions. if you accept that a big portion of which RBs produce each year is chance, then the best strategy is to acquire as many as possible, as cheaply as possible. i'm not saying "don't take a RB in round one or two". there are definitely guys worthy of being picked there. but i am saying i've got no problem waiting until round 3, 4, 5, or later to start acquiring RBs. you could get joique bell, fred jackson, stevan ridley, terrance west, bernard pierce, etc. all in fifth round or later. sexy? no. but the first three are 1000 total yard types if they stay healthy, and the second two are likely timeshare minimum/starter potential types. so by round 5 i could have 2 WR1s, a top TE and a top QB. just sayin.

this is true. Toilolo was a good TD producer in college and while he won't make you forget Jimmy Graham, he has potential to be pretty valuable in the red zone. when you think about that part of the field, none of the Falcons' other receiving options stand out as really exceptional. put it this way, inside the red zone i'd rather throw to the massive Toilolo than to Douglas, Freeman, SJax, etc.

jeffery sticks out as the most irreplaceable player at his valuation.

unanimous. Ball.

* bishop sankey: best rb in the class, good offensive line, really no competition on roster w shonn greene injured/roster spot in jeopardy * terrance west is a good call too, as is jeremy hill: i think he could take away BJGEs role in Cincinnati * brandin cooks. rookie wideouts don't often overachieve, but remember sproles is gone, colston is aging, lance moore/robert meachem are gone too. he'll have scads of opportunity. as for carlos hyde, i just don't trust the situation at all. look at san fran's recent drafts: - glen coffee - anthony dixon - kendall hunter - lamichael james - marcus lattimore - carlos hyde they take a RB every year. why is hyde going to succeed where the others haven't, short of complete collapse by frank gore?