Mark Davis

Slight further shift in odds, it's now 3:2. Pricing is getting pretty handsome even with the vig at +140 if you really think Harris is a coin flip.

Nevada and Arizona seem to have normalized to what I’d expect. I didn’t expect a world where Trump could win blue wall states and possibly not GA or NC but that possibility seems to exist. I have no idea what to expect out of NC due to the storm damage. GA is polling well for Trump but early turnout may be bad for him depending on if this is new vote that wouldn’t have otherwise voted or is just a change of type of vote. I think you can probably put NV blue in the map and possibly AZ red. Was listening to a podcast this morning where strategists from both sides suggested the time investment to compete in those two western states given they probably are each candidates strongest/weakest state means the other 5 may see more visits and almost be worth punting more visits. Especially given the relative number of EVs in NV. NV likely comes into play only in scenarios where Trump trades off NC or GA for blue wall states not named PA

Updated Bovada odds: Trump -160 Harris +135 Vig adjusted pretty much 3:2 now. Nevada has gone blue in latest Trafalgar poll and GA first early vote day I didn’t like for Trump. But someone thinks he’s leading, money keeps coming in. I’ve learned in the past to listen to the money. Arizona does look good for Trump though.

Now are these $20K forgiveable loans, handouts, separate from the reparations she wants to look at or in addition to? I mean this is going to be a windfall for some folks. That "fair share" is getting bigger by the day.

That's not exactly what happened. He answered questions, I was watching it. There were some medical emergencies, caused a long pause. He basically ended it early and it was awkward for sure, but not what some have played it up to be.

Trump has eased up to implied odds of -135 at Bovada. This equates to roughly 4:3 or about 57%. The highest either side has been in awhile. Time will tell if he can grow this out to 60% or even 2:1 odds.

If this thing goes through, Rachel Dolezal is leaving a fortune on the table if she doesn't open up her own consulting business.

Also for every one of these spots taken by a biological man, a girl loses her scholarship or opportunity to play.

Happy Columbus Day guys! Well, for all of you that don't have a self loathing mental illness.

Daphne, but I was a fan of the neighbor Regan

I think 4 she wins, 3 is iffy likely a degree of is it 3.4 or 2.5, 2 or less is Trump. I’m not sure where the line is and how much shifts in states already decided will change that overall number. While Trump has taken the slight lead in all the upper Midwest state betting markets, they are all correlated so it’s not like she has to win 3 individual coin flips to win them all. If the vote moves 2 points in one, it likely lock steps in the others pretty closely. I’ll be interested to see polling in the next week or so to see if what’s being discussed online comes to pass on the shifts. Not just in the rust belt but in NC and GA. Also I’d guess NC has gotten much harder to poll now.

One last post and then I'll get off the side track. It's also MUCH harder to do in current days because unless you are in a high limit room, most casinos especially in Las Vegas are 6:5 payouts on blackjack. If you do that and restrict what I can split and double, they'll let me count all day because I can't beat that game. You have to find a 3:2 table. The tourists have no idea how much that change made to their odds. At first it was single deck games that went to 6:5, now you just can't find any game other than high limit double deck. And of course in the high limit game you have all eyes on you and every move. So if you want to count today, best of luck. Harder odds, and as you said earlier, watchful eyes.

Yes. I can count cards. If a casino hired me in security, I could watch the camera and count the table. If every time I would increase my bet I see that you do, every time I would lower my bet I see that you do, I know what you are doing. It has nothing to do with whether you are winning or losing at that moment in time. For me the math was always the easy part. The hardest learning curve was carrying on conversations with others at the table, the dealer, the waitress, and not appearing focused on the cards, all the while having a meticulous count. It also is MUCH easier to do as a younger person. I try it now and then now when I am around it, and I lose focus at 50 much easier than in my 20's where I could count all night without sleep.

It was all good with me. I wasn't making crazy money at it, just trying to pay for trips and pick up a little cash. My couple run ins with casinos weren't of the particularly aggressive ones. That's not to say it didn't shake me a bit the first time it happened. When someone approaches you from behind and stands you up from a stool and calls you by your name, you spin around and some big dude in a suit is there flanked by security guards, it's a little unnerving.

I managed to do it for about 10 years before ever having an issue. I personally don't know of any private blackjack games.

In a one run scenario, kind of. However if you could give me a 52/48 edge, I'd do nothing but play that hand of cards every waking hour for the rest of my life. I used to be a card counter so even 55/45 feels significant. I've bet a lot on much less. But for sure we are talking about a one time event so these are minute shifts. The question is does the movement continue in the direction it's going or does it stop? Harris had it for a long time after the Biden withdrawal, but it feels like she's peaked and it's drifting back. Statistically so at least. But really all that matters are those 7 states, and moreso 6 states because the way the math works in most scenarios NV is never a tipping point state.

You can dismiss him. Feel like Cook Political is in the bag for the Rs as well?

I'm getting some of mine from what Mark Halperin is writing. He was pretty tied in on the timing of Biden's withdrawal. If Halperin's comments on momentum aren't clear or you discount him for some reason, Cook Political has made some shifts, most notably WI Senate. These things don't occur in a vacuum. Harris may well still win, probably 10 days ago I'd have said slightly more likely than not to win. Today I think momentum has shifted and now Trump is slightly more likely than not based on the direction of things.

Nevada finally reverting to normal. I had a hard time believing it was as likely R as it was polling. Of the seven swing states, NV is the one I think Harris is strongest in.

Sure, but people see those polls before they get public. It's like a line moving a bit before an injury gets released for a football game. It explains a lot of what happened that didn't correlate with the polls. Now all of a sudden, it lines up.

Seems like some of the betting market shifts came from some internal polling. The one bit of news that got me to looking deeper into that was Cook Political shifting the WI Senate race from Lean D to Toss Up. I had written that off for Baldwin, and she still appears ahead, but what appeared to be an easy blue seat is getting tight. Apparently from some of the notes there are internal polls among the 3 critical MW states that are trending Trump's way as of late. That doesn't mean the momentum stays, but both sides internals seem to suggest he has gained ground in all 3 in the recent internals.

Trump isn't going to run to the left of Harris on Israel, ever. He would lose many more votes than he could ever gain, maybe in Michigan itself alone. Besides, most of that constituency wants Harris to be further left. Trump won't gain from getting their votes, he gains from them voting 3rd party or not at all.

This hasn’t been true back to when I was a child. I grew up in a rural Alabama county and my mom was the principal at a small school out in the county. The county had to hire ESL teachers for the kids of the migrant workers. If any county didn’t have the money, it was ours. It was a big thing back then when that order came down that they had to do it. It certainly wasn’t always that way back to the origins of our country. I’m not saying it’s good or bad that they did so, just saying it’s not true that the government doesn’t provide services and have significant expenses when it comes to specifically illegal immigrants. This is just one example. We’ve gone round and round on the financial impact of this so neither of us will convince the other, but I feel like you have some blind spots when it comes to the costs.

Vance has done a decent job of looking more human and empathetic than the narrative that the media has put out there of him. Not everyone will agree with his policies, but if there are any undecideds watching who are willing to consider his ticket, he's not been the monster he was portrayed to be.

I think you're wrong here. I doubt this debate makes a difference, but Walz has stumbled multiple times and got caught in a lie looking very awkward. Vance whether you like him or not is quite smooth and intelligent. You can dislike his views, but he's winning this debate so far. I have to admit Harris won the other debate, but Vance is winning this one quite handily so far.