Ray_T

Cobb never got that much love in Green Bay. hes there for comfort more than anything. Lazard will likely be the #2. and Rodgers is capable of supporting more than one relevant fantasy WR. this doesnt worry me.

If these were the only options then Ekeler is my choice. but Like Gobbledog who posted above me, I do think I prefer to draft Jefferson to both of these guys.

I have not run the stats, but I'd guess if running a regression to find out, the results would indicate that usage and age are both related to each other. most of your older backs have more touches. so we are likely looking at a chicken and egg thing. In the past RB's with high usage expired at age 30 with very few notable exceptions. in recent times some pass catching RB's have been able to stay relevant beyond the age of 30 but thats also likely due to taking less hits as they dont actually run the ball between the tackles all that often (which is likely where most of your big hits take place) anyhow just some food for your thoughts.

Well, thats just probably where he should have been in the first place. I'd argue hes in a far better situation with better talent on offense than what he was dealing with in Green Bay. The biggest challenge would be for him to get onto the same page as everyone in the offense. for that reason I think he does better in the second half of the season than he does in the first half.

I like the signing. well, I think that because of teams need to stack the box to stop Henry, Hopkins will have less double coverage than hes ever seen. I think it will open things up for him in a way that he never had elsewhere. I think it could be good for Henry's game too. I think Burks takes a step forward. he likely is taking on #2 corners at least some of the time, and that should help him get open more often. I'm expecting higher efficiency for Burks at the very least. from a quality standpoint Hopkins still gets separation on a lot of his routes. for me the big question is whether he can remain healthy as this starts to become an issue for WR at this age. But I think he performs at least at a WR2 level. he got 80 yards per game last year and 4 of those games were without Kyler Murray who was out(5 if you count the one game he took himself out of after throwing only 1 pass) . that pro rates to over 1300 yards. I am not projecting 1300 yards. but I do think to be on the cusp of WR1 he needs 1100 yards(or close to it). I think Tannehill is good enough to get him that. At this point I'm not exactly sure where I'm ranking him but it is likely in the WR10 to WR15 range. with the likely end point being around WR12 or WR13. That said given his ADP I'd probably draft him at around WR 15 or WR16. Thats early enough to make sure I get him but late enough that hes a bargain. I do expect his ADP will rise as we get closer to week 1 (unless he or Tannehill gets hurt or something) but I think this Tennessee Offense will be better than it was last year. I'll say that much for sure.

sounds like fun. Looking forward to seeing all of you again.

for me, the issue is that he was playing with a bunch of #2/3 WR last year. he did not have a true #1. Now he does. so I do think he does better than last year (assuming good health) the real puzzle is figuring out how much better he will actually be.

well, it sounds like Arizona has been a train Wreck the last couple years. I think Hopkins can be a top 10 WR in this offense but the top 3 upside is likely not there anymore. WR 19- 23 seems a bit late to me. I think hes better than that in this offense.

honestly there are so many factors at play that its really tough to predict. but you bring a guy like Rodgers and his huge cap hit, I have to think money plays into this decision in some way. I suspect Cook is asking too much cash for them to bite. he also likely wants term. tough to say what Hunt wants, but hes likely a good candidate as well. Though some GM's may not like him due to his incident that led to his departure from KC in the first place. thus the suggestion of Zeke. In terms of what he can deliver, Hunt may be the better player today. but if you also want to move back towards Hall next season, Zeke is the one most likely to sign a one year deal. Hunt would likely be gunning for the permanent starting job which could be undesireable if Breece Hall is your guy.

That feels low to me as well. I'm in a one league that starts 2 QB and this feels like he could be a nice buy. especially if what you say is right at QB17. keep in mind he is in New York. if he looks great in pre season it will be tough to contain the hype on him. he probably should be between QB 8 and QB 15 but I say this tongue in cheek as I have yet to run my projections. QB 11 or 12 feels close to right for me but you wont find too many QB's with that type of ADP that has the potential upside he has.

Rodgers? tough to say. I have not done a whole lot of research on QB's. but plan to do some soon. my gut tells me he will produce better in New York than he did last season in Green Bay just simply because they have more high end talent at WR. the question I have is by how much? I probably draft him as a low end QB1. but hes treading very close to that QB1/QB2 border. he could have another big bounceback year. its certainly possible.... but thats probably where I'd draft him.

yeah, in the end, if he asks for something they will likely try to give it to him.

Tanehill is good enough to get him the ball. not sure what they paid hopkins, but if they paid top dollar, they probably should have kept AJ Brown. though the advantage with Hopkins is its only a 2 year deal. I suspect AJ was wanting a long term deal

true. but this may be about pleasing Aaron Rodgers. that said, the best move is to sign a one year deal to one of the Free Agents on the market. personally I'd pick Zeke. he catches, he runs, and he blocks. might be a good mentor for a young Breece Hall on a one year deal.

lots of nonsense is to be expected in the offseason. My lord and savior the Flying Spaghetti Monster has redeemed me for another season of Fantasy Football. Good luck everyone.

thats ok I am sure a link will be posted at some point. 4 mil IS a significant haircut I must say. thanks for posting.

Well, if Cook is signed, I think that tells you all you need to know about Hall's recovery from this injury. at worst this would be a committee situation if they sign Cook.

ever since Adrian Peterson came back from an ACL in less than a year and was a stud upon return everyone has underestimated how an ACL tear will affect production and often will site this example and say that modern medicine is better. I agree it is better but not as much as everyone thinks. The process of healing still takes significant time and I truly think Peterson was the exception and not the rule. though how a player performs returning from ACL surgery largely depends on a number of things. 1) the line. if the line opens up a giant hole, it likely does not matter if you have an ACL tear or not. You run through the hole and get a bunch of yards. 2) playcalling. this goes hand in hand with #1. if its the right ACL thats injured but most of your runs are to the left side of the line, its your good (left)leg that is doing the plant for the cut. so if the line does its job on that side of the field, the ACL shouldn't affect that play. also draw plays tend to put less pressure on the knee joint because of the way the play is designed. so you can scheme for this to some degree but the defense knows what you are doing so its not necessarily as easy as you would think. 3) the obvious one.... healing ability and working hard in rehab/phisio. so a good line will indeed help the situation and a good coach who knows how to scheme things to minimize the effect of that ACL tear can go a long ways. Peterson also had Elite vision so he could see the hole forming before it even opened up. this was one part of his game that gave him an advantage to allow him to overcome some of this short term disability associated with the injury. this vision allowed him to play past the age of 30 as well.

I still have yet to see the size of the pay cut. any links?

less than 30% for sure. more like 10 tops. the only guy I can actually think of who did was ADP. super talented guy, and a bit of a freak in terms of how he came back from the injury so quick and still performed as well as he did before the injury. I am sure that there are others but hes the only guy I can think of who has. And most RB who have a career longer than 8 years have an ACL surgery so the sample size is pretty good.

if hes not able to start the season, the odds of him having a good season go down significantly. if this happens it means he has missed camp. he wont have time to get aligned with his QB and his O line and it will take time for him to get into game shape. at this point I'd say the odds of him performing at his ADP are not nearly as good. not to mention most players coming back the first year off an ACL surgery seem to have subpar seasons. to me, this all adds up to too much risk and all the signs are there. certainly a good season isnt impossible as each person heals differently from surgery but given hes now looking like he may miss the start of the season I'd now say it is highly unlikely that he performs this season.

yeah but if you look at the RB numbers for the team as a whole, usually your starter gets the vast majority of the rushing yards. there is another player who gets the vast majority of the receiving yards. and a third player gets a lot of the short yardage carries (and TD) it doesnt always work out this way. the combination often will change from year to year (and even game to game) which is why I really dont like RB's from the pats. While Brady was there, the pass catcher is more reliable from week to week than anyone else most years. thats really the issue. last years starter could be this years bum. and some years there isnt really one person you can pin down as their starter.

honestly the more relevant question is how susceptible is the starter to getting hurt. Cuz thats likely what needs to happen for either of these guys to get significant playing time. Strong already has a role as part of a committee but that role needs to expand if hes gonna have significant value (RB2)in my opinion. same situation applies to Moss. Strong takes a bit more value in a PPR format. I dont like him much in standard leagues.

This may actually be a fair bet. he played with a lis franc injury last year and it showed. no burst whatsoever in the second half. these injuries tend to be career enders if surgery is done (more often than not) but if rehab without surgery, it is possible to bounce back, but the injury is the type where the recovery can be very slow. a smart team would be very scared of that injury but I'm sure some teams will do their homework and do a very thorough medical exam of that injury to make sure. I dont recall hearing about a surgery, so there is the chance he can come back and be productive. but there is also the chance the injury lingers and if that happens, hes a backup at best. I have not heard much. but maybe TBay may be able to chime in. the guy was a Buc so chances are good that TBay knows what the deal is with the injury.

you know, I'm looking and I see a handful of guys on the cusp of RB2/3 rankings (assuming 12 teamer) based on fftoday rankings that I dont mind at their ADP. any of these players I'd be happy to have as a RB3 if they fall that far (and chances are good that at least one of them will) James Connor ranked #20 in fftodays RB rankings actually was having a subpar season but came alive after Kyler Murray got hurt and those last few weeks of the season were very good. Hes not a glamourous name and I wouldnt even be surprised if his ADP is lower than fftodays ranking. and if that is the case, hes a guy you target as your RB3 Dameon Pierce (fftoday rank #21) got 900 yards rushing as a rookie and the offense is more potent with the addition of Stroud. I see a small bump in yards, but the larger bump should be in TD. Pacheco (fftoday rank #24) got 830 yards rushing as a rookie and 130 yards receiving. pretty good rookie season. and the RB room looks to be less crowded than it was this time last year. he doesnt even have to improve to hit 1000 yards as the shorter bench likely means more touches even if he plays to the same level. if he takes a step forward, he could have a real nice season. I love this kid and if the ADP resembles the fftoday ranking hes a reasonable RB2 selection when the talent thins out and if you can get him as your RB3 you're in great shape. Dobbins (fftoday rank #25)- this is an Axe Elf Special. he took him in nearly every draft I saw him post last year, but due to the ACL injury and recovery, he may have jumped the gun, but I do like him a lot this year if his health holds up. if the ADP on this guy matches the fftoday rank, hes likely a buy at this point in the draft. Miles Sanders (fftoday rank #27)-I also like this guy a lot. it looks like hes gonna be the bell cow in carolina. yes, I know they are not a great team, but neither was philly until last season. they were absolutely terrible. while Chubba Hubbard has a cool name, hes not a RB who has passed the eye test for me. I dont think hes anything other than a backup and will go in when Sanders needs a rest. fftodays current projection is pretty similar (slightly higher)to the numbers Sanders got in Philly the 2 years prior to his breakout last year. but Sanders only played in 12 games to get those stats on a very bad Philly squad. so I think there is some upside here as well. any of these guys I'd be extremely happy to get as my RB3 and a couple I'd be willing to settle as an RB2 (especially in a best ball format where you took a lot of WR early or did a zero RB strategy) I think all of them have a decent chance of outperforming this ranking. I dont know their respective ADP's. I find ADP data this early in the year is sketchy at best. so I'd rely more on the fftoday rankings (or whatever other rankings you like to use)