Wildman's Wednesday Session--Projection Questions

[Wildman 0]

This is a little experiment that I'm hoping to develop into something regular. Obviously the FFToday Board discourages who should I start, drop, keep, questions but the Help Board has a small (but dedicated) group of people. The problem is it's small, which means too much time before a question is answered.

 

I'm probably not going to give you the best advice every time. But hopefully we'll get enough participation that you'll get even better viewpoints. I just want to take a little ownership of this board and see what we can do to develop it into something more substantial and helpful to owners.

 

If you are thinking about doing your own projections and want some advice or just want to bounce some ideas about projecting a specific player(s) off someone with experience doing projections, post a question here for my response by next Wednesday. For a more helpful answer, post your scoring system, starting lineup rules, roster size, and applicable information about your team along with your question. Otherwise I'll have to preface every answer or give you either or scenarios that take more time to write and prevent me from answering as many questions as possible.

[Terrorazer 0]

How about some projections on

- Reggie Wayne

- Todd Heap

- Domanick Davis

- Matt Jones

 

Thanks

[Wildman 0]

How about some projections on

- Reggie Wayne

- Todd Heap

- Domanick Davis

- Matt Jones

 

Thanks

 

I guess I wasn't clear enough, but this thread isn't designed to just simply provide projections. If you want to list your league's scoring rules and where you picture them being ranked as a starting point and what you think that means statistically then I don't mind going through the process of projecting numbers to give you another point of view.

 

I get into conversations with people that sounds like this:

 

Fantasy football owner: "Matt Jones is going to be a top 15 receiver."

 

Me: "Really? How many yards/tds do you think that will be?"

 

Owner: "1400 yards and 10 scores," they reply.

 

Me: "Matt Jones would have been the highest scoring receiver over a 16-game season in fantasy football last year with that total. Do you think he'll be that good?"

 

Owner: "No..."

 

Me: "So how did you come up with that number?"

 

Owner: "Well, 85-90 yards per game receiving seemed reasonable and I just guesstimated the TDs."

 

 

People either don't consider stats, don't have them available, or know how to manipulate them in a way that can truly help them make better projections. I'm trying to help owners explore various ways to project players, not simply provide projections for them.

 

Thanks

[keeptwo 0]

Wildman,

Keep up all the good work your doing!

[Wildman 0]

Thanks

[Second Place Don't Pay 0]

Thanks

 

Alright, I like this a lot.

 

Let's do a Byron Leftwich projection vs. Eli Manning. 12-team keeper, 4 keepers per team, 8 restricted players (when one is drafted, the owner pulls one from his list back to his team), 1 pt per 50-yards passing, 1-point bonus at 300 yards, 4-pt passing TD, 6-pt rushing TD, -1-pt per INT.

 

BL's started 38 games and averaged 30 attempts and 207 yds per contest. I wouldn't expect significant differences in those numbers, nor would I expect more than 14 games from him this year. I am curious about your thoughts on his TD production with the addition of Lewis, the possible emergence of Jones and Wilford, but the loss of Smith. Each receiving target is tall and big-bodied, making them all significant scoring threats. My projection: 420 att, 248 comp, 2980 yds, 20 TD, 11 INT.

 

Manning's a mystery to me. His division is extremely difficult, as he'll face 2 killer Defenses and a good one (Dallas) twice each. He's not quite to that magic "32 games played", his OL was not his friend last year...but his jersey still says Manning on the back. Is he at least going to be competitive this year with Leftwich? I think he's a better long-term prospect than Lefty, but I'd need a few good games from him this year.

[Wildman 0]

Awesome, I've been waiting for one of these. Let's start with your league. I'm going to provide a starting point for us to consider, ask you some questions, and see where we should go from there, sound good?

 

First, I think it makes sense to look at their career stats then Manning's performance last year with your scoring rules and Leftwich's past two seasons.

 

Last Name	Year	G	Pct	Pass Yds	Pass Tds	INT	RYds	RAtt	RTds
Leftwich	2003	15	57.18%	2819	14	16	108	25	2
Leftwich	2004	14	60.54%	2941	15	10	148	39	2
Leftwich	2005	11	57.95%	2123	15	5	67	31	2

Last Name	Year	G	Pct	Pass Yds	Pass Tds	INT	RYds	RAtt	RTds
Manning	2004	9	48.22%	1043	6	9	35	6	0
Manning	2005	16	52.78%	3762	24	17	80	29	1

 

On the surface, Manning looks a lot more prolific a scorer with more yds and tds. But Leftwich has been the more precise passer with a 5%-8% higher completion percentage--even as a rookie. Then another thing to note is Jacksonville's receivers actually led the league in drops in 2004 and were pretty up there in 2005. They were the AFC's version of the Seattle Seahawks...Why do I bring this up? Let's take a closer look at their game by game performances. Points for Rushing Yds/Tds are included in the Fpts scores, but I didn't list them for sake of space:

 

Last Name	Year	Fpts	Week	Comp	Att	Pass Yd	Pass Td	Int
Leftwich	2004	4.94	1	18	36	147	1	2
Leftwich	2004	6.40	2	8	16	120	1	0
Leftwich	2004	6.48	3	14	20	124	1	0
Leftwich	2004	10.36	4	29	41	318	1	0
Leftwich	2004	15.14	5	36	54	357	1	2
Leftwich	2004	19.96	6	24	36	298	2	0
Leftwich	2004	13.00	7	23	30	300	2	1
Leftwich	2004	2.54	8	25	40	227	0	2
Leftwich	2004	8.70	12	19	34	235	1	0
Leftwich	2004	9.36	13	16	27	268	1	0
Leftwich	2004	11.84	14	25	45	242	2	1
Leftwich	2004	10.42	15	9	20	121	2	0
Leftwich	2004	-0.30	16	6	14	35	0	1
Leftwich	2004	1.98	17	15	28	149	0	1
Avg	8.63			19	32	210	1	1	

Totals														267 	441	2941	15	10
Projected 16 Gms						305	504	3361	17	11	


Last Name	Year	Fpts	Week	Comp	Att	Pass Yd	Pass Td	Int
Leftwich	2005	13.04	1	17	31	252	2	0
Leftwich	2005	3.96	2	16	29	198	0	0
Leftwich	2005	10.54	3	16	23	177	2	1
Leftwich	2005	6.80	4	20	34	240	1	2
Leftwich	2005	11.22	5	10	24	161	2	0
Leftwich	2005	6.54	6	19	35	177	1	1
Leftwich	2005	11.26	8	18	31	213	2	1
Leftwich	2005	14.36	9	19	25	218	1	0
Leftwich	2005	8.22	10	16	30	211	1	0
Leftwich	2005	23.16	11	22	38	258	3	0
Leftwich	2005	0.36	12	2	2	18	0	0
Avg.  10.91			17	30	211	2	1
16 Gm Projection	   185.28		277	480	3368	24	8
14 Gm Projection	   162.12		242	420	2947	21	7



Last Name	Year	Fpts	Week	Comp	Att	Pass Yd	Pass Td	Int
Manning	2005	9.44	1	10	23	172	2	2
Manning	2005	7.30	2	13	24	165	1	0
Manning	2005	15.04	3	24	41	352	2	0
Manning	2005	21.92	4	19	35	296	4	0
Manning	2005	7.30	6	14	29	215	1	1
Manning	2005	11.28	7	23	42	214	2	1
Manning	2005	5.92	8	12	31	146	1	1
Manning	2005	9.02	9	18	33	251	1	0
Manning	2005	5.82	10	23	48	291	1	4
Manning	2005	16.36	11	17	26	218	3	0
Manning	2005	13.88	12	29	53	344	2	1
Manning	2005	1.04	13	12	31	152	0	2
Manning	2005	13.24	14	28	44	312	1	3
Manning	2005	6.72	15	17	32	186	1	1
Manning	2005	7.88	16	23	41	244	1	1
Manning	2005	8.08	17	12	24	204	1	0
Avg	10.02	Totals	294	557	3762	24	17
 Total Pts   160.24

 

Okay, so what we have in your scoring system are two relatively even players based on last year's performance (in terms of points per game), Leftwich getting the slight edge in per game performance but Manning favored by you due to promise, pedigree, and durability--all pretty good reasons (even for a Leftwich sympathizer like myself).

 

But here are some things to consider. When you look at Lefty's projected totals for a 14 and 16-game season, he outscores Manning last year either way. Now playing a full 16 games has been a big if for Leftwich, but you get my point: He's not a bad QB--in fact, his stats show he's more accurate and prone to less mistakes (see the INTs and completion pct.). He and Manning in their second seasons had roughly the same 300 yard games as well. There was stretch in 2004 where Leftwich (week 4-7) look like he was about to take over the Dan Fouts role of gunslinger. Jacksonville did improve their rate of drops to the point that they were 11th (29 drops) overall instead of in the top 3 (2004). NYG were actually 4th in drops(37)...not a good stat at all. Yet even if you make those drops completions and create an adjusted completion percentage it doesn't make Manning as accurate as Leftwich.

 

So the questions we need to answer after looking at these stats (from what I can see) are:

 

1. Considering Leftwich has played at least 11 games in the past two years, should we project his stats for 16 games? One might argue he hasn't missed enough games. Not sure I agree but just a point to consider.

 

2. If we do take into account his missed games, should we consider a method of noting what his potential 16-game season might look like. This way, if you project him with 12-14 games total and he falls to a #2 QB status, do you want to see what he potential should do at 16 games to rank his and other QBs values at the #2 spot to see which might have more upside? Or should we argue a #2 QB should be more durable...

 

3. Each player should see a rate of improvement from their 2nd to 3rd or 3rd to 4th season. From what I can recall it's not nearly as signficant as year 1 to year 2, but it might be worth exploring.

 

4. Should we project the receiver's stats and work backwards to the QBs stats? This might help us see how much of an impact Lewis, Wilford, Jones, Jones-Drew/Taylor make in this offense and whether it's realistic. Same with Manning and his group--an aging Toomer, Burress, Shockey, Barber, and rookie Moss.

 

Let me know what other questions we need to consider and we'll look at those as well.

 

For those of you reading this thread and considering offering projection suggestions. You can see that this one will be more time intensive. I won't get a ton of these done, but I think the time and effort to do some for each position will be worthwhile when you're consider the ones I can't get to...

[Second Place Don't Pay 0]

He's not a bad QB--in fact, his stats show he's more accurate and prone to less mistakes (see the INTs and completion pct.). He and Manning in their second seasons had roughly the same 300 yard games as well. There was stretch in 2004 where Leftwich (week 4-7) look like he was about to take over the Dan Fouts role of gunslinger.

I remember well that streak...it's part of what makes it hard to part with him. And it's what makes me think he won't make it through 16 games, cause when he throws it 35 times or more, that means 8 QB hits. He's accurate, talented, and I love the throwing motion. Drop back, plant, rock and fire...puts his whole body into it.

1. Considering Leftwich has played at least 11 games in the past two years, should we project his stats for 16 games? One might argue he hasn't missed enough games. Not sure I agree but just a point to consider.

 

2. If we do take into account his missed games, should we consider a method of noting what his potential 16-game season might look like. This way, if you project him with 12-14 games total and he falls to a #2 QB status, do you want to see what he potential should do at 16 games to rank his and other QBs values at the #2 spot to see which might have more upside? Or should we argue a #2 QB should be more durable...

I see this as a sort of "floor-ceiling" projection. Project his stats for 12 starts (floor), 14 (realistic), and 16 (ceiling). I'd love my #2 to be durable, but it's hard to give up a talented, intermittently excellent QB in Lefty.

3. Each player should see a rate of improvement from their 2nd to 3rd or 3rd to 4th season. From what I can recall it's not nearly as signficant as year 1 to year 2, but it might be worth exploring.

I still won't draft Alex Smith no matter how big the 1-2 jump is.

4. Should we project the receiver's stats and work backwards to the QBs stats? This might help us see how much of an impact Lewis, Wilford, Jones, Jones-Drew/Taylor make in this offense and whether it's realistic. Same with Manning and his group--an aging Toomer, Burress, Shockey, Barber, and rookie Moss.

You like the extra work, don't you?

I think projecting the skill players and backing into the QB may be a bit misleading for Leftwich. Will Leftwich distribute to more targets than Manning? I think he will...so how many players do you include in the skill projections? I think that the trends with Leftwich are strong enough (and his offense and coaching staff are consistent enough) that you let the numbers speak for themselves.

 

For Manning, I'd love to see a backward projection. In year 2.5, I think it may be very effective.

[Wildman 0]

Okay...I'll look into this tonight.

[Wildman 0]

Okay...I'll look into this tonight.

 

Alright, I didn't get to this as early as I thought, so I'll have something by tomorrow night...

[Second Place Don't Pay 0]

Alright, I didn't get to this as early as I thought, so I'll have something by tomorrow night...

Oh, the humanity! I came all the way to this board...uphill, both ways, in 100-degree heat...and no post. That's it, I'm on a hunger strike

 

I'm looking forward to seeing what you come up with.

[Wildman 0]

Alright here's a the process I'll take with a floor-to-ceiling projection on Leftwich. I kept the 16-game projection I used from the previous response as the ceiling. I created this projection by taking the totals in each category from his game by game stats with the exception of the Cardinals game where he got hurt and multiplied that adjusted average by 16 games. I thought this artificially deflated his ceiling because it's going to be vitually impossible for Lefty to have a 2- attempt game if he finishes the season....

 

But with the 14 and 12-game projections I included that clunker effort into the average score and then multiplied those average game totals by the amount of games. This gives these projections in what I'll consider a raw state:

 

Fpts	Gms	Comp	Att	Yds	PTd	Int	Ratt	Ryd	RTd
185.28	16	277	480	3368	24	8	50	107	3
147.84	14	223	384	2702	19	6	39	85	3
126.72	12	191	329	2316	16	5	34	73	2

 

Pretty wide range here. The thing that troubles me is the low interception totals, and probably what many people would question as a relatively high rush TD total for a stocky QB that looks plain awkward when he breaks the pocket.

 

Honestly, I think the Ints need adjusting because in my day job it's better to project numbers that help you expect the worst within a reasonable cost/expectation and hope for the best rather than project with little room for a pleasant surprise. At the same time, I think the rushing TDs can be kept:

 

1. Lefty has gotten in shape this year. I think it's a shocker, but they say he looks downright lean

2. The presence of Lewis in the redzone and those other two tall guys are going to distract the defense enough for Byron to sneak a few of these scores in there. I believe it's quite reasonable he'll have 2-3 and unofficially believe 4-5 is likely.

 

Personally I like how the rest of the stats look because the loss of Jimmy Smith as a reliable target should be made up for with a decent receiver at TE that will make enough catches to keep Lefty's percentage above 60%. That's my take anway.

 

So from looking at these preliminary stats, do you think we're heading in the right direction? What do you think about the rushing totals and ints? Too little, just right, too much? Why?

 

I think adding 2-4 INTs to these projections "looks right." This is why projecting is probably more craft than science. If I were to attempt a better explanation, I'd say Leftwich will still have some rapport to develop with Lewis and Matt Jones which might create crossed signals resulting in balls thrown right to a DB.

 

After I get your answers, we'll make some final projections with these numbers.

 

As for Eli...let's take a similar approach by removing his worst game from the average we take of last year's totals. His worst game is one of 3 choices.

 

a. His week 13, 12 for 31, 153 yard, 0 score, 2 int effort.

b. His week 10, 23 for 48, 291 yard, 0 score, 4 int effort

c. His week 8, 12 for 31, 146, 1 score, 1 int effort.

 

Personally, I'd choose the 4 int effort because I believe Eli will be less likely to throw 4 picks than throw for less than 200 yards and no scores. Especially in the NFC east and with a good running game that could help him out.

 

Tell me whether you agree or disagree than then we'll move forward with some preliminary projections on Eli then work backwards with the skill players to see whether we should make adjustments to his totals.

 

Sound good?

[Second Place Don't Pay 0]

Fpts	Gms	Comp	Att	Yds	PTd	Int	Ratt	Ryd	RTd
185.28	16	277	480	3368	24	8	50	107	3
147.84	14	223	384	2702	19	6	39	85	3
126.72	12	191	329	2316	16	5	34	73	2

 

Pretty wide range here. The thing that troubles me is the low interception totals, and probably what many people would question as a relatively high rush TD total for a stocky QB that looks plain awkward when he breaks the pocket.

 

So from looking at these preliminary stats, do you think we're heading in the right direction? What do you think about the rushing totals and ints? Too little, just right, too much? Why?

 

I think you're spot on. I'd adjust the INTs higher - maybe to 11/12 at 16 games - only because of the youth of the receivers. They may be good, tall targets with mounds of potential, but I bet they run the wrong route or mistime a jump or don't have good body position a couple of times. As for the rushing totals, he'll get his 3-5 TDs from 1-6 yards out (no goalline back, good decision-making), so I'm alright with that.

 

I don't know that the passing yardage (or attempts) will be quite as high. With the defense as good as it is getting back Darius and Drew returning punts, I expect them to play a little more clock-control ball and have shorter fields to play on...so fewer yards. Maybe 45-50 fewer attempts, so approx. 3050 yards...

 

As for Eli...let's take a similar approach by removing his worst game from the average we take of last year's totals. His worst game is one of 3 choices.

a. His week 13, 12 for 31, 153 yard, 0 score, 2 int effort.

b. His week 10, 23 for 48, 291 yard, 0 score, 4 int effort

c. His week 8, 12 for 31, 146, 1 score, 1 int effort.

Personally, I'd choose the 4 int effort because I believe Eli will be less likely to throw 4 picks than throw for less than 200 yards and no scores. Especially in the NFC east and with a good running game that could help him out.

Agreed - though I initially wanted to toss out game a. Your reasoning is solid enough (notwithstanding the playoff game against Carolina).

 

I'm without access from tomorrow until June 21st - I apologize in advance for my delay in responding to your next level of projections...

 

Thanks! This is an absolute blast.

[ellisonb11 0]

im in a tough situation in my current draft, and i need to grab a qb in this round if i want an elite one. im one pick away, and my position is at 5.08. mcnabb, bulger, and hasselbeck are all available. which do u believe will be the best QB for me this year?

 

im leaning towards hass because of the easy schedule and efficient offense. he has better weapons than mcnabb, but SA steals some TDs. Mcnabb is sort of a risk. please help.

[Wildman 0]

im in a tough situation in my current draft, and i need to grab a qb in this round if i want an elite one. im one pick away, and my position is at 5.08. mcnabb, bulger, and hasselbeck are all available. which do u believe will be the best QB for me this year?

 

im leaning towards hass because of the easy schedule and efficient offense. he has better weapons than mcnabb, but SA steals some TDs. Mcnabb is sort of a risk. please help.

 

I put your answer on a different thread.

 

I promise I look at the threads below the pinned areas, so please try to post these away from the themed topics...thanks!

[Wildman 0]

I think you're spot on. I'd adjust the INTs higher - maybe to 11/12 at 16 games - only because of the youth of the receivers. They may be good, tall targets with mounds of potential, but I bet they run the wrong route or mistime a jump or don't have good body position a couple of times. As for the rushing totals, he'll get his 3-5 TDs from 1-6 yards out (no goalline back, good decision-making), so I'm alright with that.

 

I don't know that the passing yardage (or attempts) will be quite as high. With the defense as good as it is getting back Darius and Drew returning punts, I expect them to play a little more clock-control ball and have shorter fields to play on...so fewer yards. Maybe 45-50 fewer attempts, so approx. 3050 yards...

Agreed - though I initially wanted to toss out game a. Your reasoning is solid enough (notwithstanding the playoff game against Carolina).

 

I'm without access from tomorrow until June 21st - I apologize in advance for my delay in responding to your next level of projections...

 

Thanks! This is an absolute blast.

 

Going out of town today, will be back by the 23rd to wrap this up, promise!

[Wildman 0]

Going out of town today, will be back by the 23rd to wrap this up, promise!

 

Broke my promise, but let's just say I had some life changing events occur on the 23rd that took precedence...

 

 

Here's some preliminary projections for Eli Manning taking away that one clunker of a game. I put it in a table compared to the Leftwich projections:

 

		 Fpts Gms	Comp	Att	Yds	PTd	Int	Ratt	Ryd	RTd
Lefty  185	16	277	480	3368	24	8	50	107	3
Lefty  148	14	223	384	2702	19	6	39	85	3
Lefty  127	12	191	329	2316	16	5	34	73	2
Mann. 165	16	289	543	3702	25	14	30	60	1

 

Manning's numbers really don't look much different from last season--fewer yards, 1 more td, and fewer ints. I agree with the tds--to project anything more is very optimistic. I think the numbers of ints are correct as well--Eli is a bit of a risktaker and will try too hard to force it. Still 14 Ints aren't bad if the TD figures work out. I'd think Manning's projected completion percentage should be more than 53%. Let's say he improves 5% in this department and his yards per completion remain the same. I believe this is a reasonable jump in percentage based on eyeballing the improvement of some name starters. I'm working on a some database queries to verify this, but I've been late enough on answering this question.

 

So a 5% increase in completion percetnage would mean Eli would have 315 completions instead of 289. Let's see how this would impact his yards, Tds, and ints.

 

1. Yards--if we use yards per completion (12.8) then 12.8 x 315 = 4032 yards. I think that's rather high, but possible.

2. TDs/completion: .086 TDs/completion so .086 x 315 = 27 Tds

3. Ints/completion: .048 ints/completion based on 289 completions a 5% increase in completion percentage should result in a 5% decrease in int rate, you think? Seems logical to me. So 5% of .048 is .002. That means the rate would be .046. Multiply .046 x our adjusted 315 and you get 14.49 ints--we'll round down to 14...same amount of ints despite more completions.

 

So I think the acceptable range without doing a backwards projection is

 

3702 yards 25 tds and 14 ints at worst and 4032 yards, 27 Tds, and 14 Ints at best. Which ever way you dice it, in most cases Manning looks like a safer bet than Leftwich by the numbers. This is really conflicting with the old gut feeling, but that's why numbers are good. I'm torn because I think the Jags receivers have more talent, but the Giants have a more veteran skill set of players so I think Eli's prospects make more sense to be higher than Lord Byron.

 

Backward projection?

 

Let me know if you still want to see this...I think adjusting Eli's completion percentage may be more worth while than trying to figure how much better each receiver will be...the reason is you can really over project totals if you try to get Eli's numbers from several different receivers.

 

Hope this helps.

[Super Cubs 151]

TD/bonus for 100 yard games

 

D Jax

T Glenn

[Wildman 0]

TD/bonus for 100 yard games

 

D Jax

T Glenn

 

Are you looking for projections or a preference of player?

 

Preference of player? DJax...

 

If you are looking for projection help, tell me where you see their stats to be ball park, and we;ll break them down to see if that makes sense...

[Shockey fan 0]

Ben Watson vs. Tony Gonzalez

 

Watson - overhyped, too many receivers to cacth the ball in New England?

 

Gonzalez - aging, last year a mirage or returnt o glory this year, Roaf retiring hurt him?

 

 

Be interested to hear your breakdown of the two

[Wildman 0]

Ben Watson vs. Tony Gonzalez

 

Watson - overhyped, too many receivers to cacth the ball in New England?

 

Gonzalez - aging, last year a mirage or returnt o glory this year, Roaf retiring hurt him?

Be interested to hear your breakdown of the two

 

Okay sounds like a fun one, since I was trying to acquire Watson from Mike MacGregor all spring until I finally compromised and landed McMichael (he had Gates, Watson, and McMichael--and he wouldn't part with Watson unless he got more in value than what the Pats TE has proven to do--can you believe that? Hehe...actually I understand)

 

 

So Watson vs. Gonzalez.

 

Watson shares time with Graham and possibly 1 of 2 other rookies. He'll still likely see more time and maybe in a slot role to gain matchup advantages. Brady is throwing it to him a ton in training camp. All looks very promising. I'm buying the hype to an extent because Watson was a first round pick in 2004 that was lost early in his rookie season. Therefore 2005 was essentially his rookie year. I believe if Watson were healthy in 2004, Graham would have been second fiddle last year. This year, I believe that will be the case.

 

I would suggest we start by looking at Graham's 2004 season--when he split time with Fauria.

Last Name	Year	Team	G	GS	Rush Tds	Rec	Rec Yd	Rec Td	Fpts
Graham	2004	new	14	0	0	30	364	7	78.4

 

Not bad, but his consitency score was ninth among TEs...nothing special. In fact disappointing when you consider he scored most of his Tds early in the year.

 

What did Watson do last year?

Last Name	Year	Team	G	GS	Rush Tds	Rec	Rec Yd	Rec Td	Fpts
Watson	2005	new	15	0	0	29	441	4	68.1

 

Even as he split time, he was nearly as good as Graham in 2004. One approach might be to look at the best case scenario and then pair it down accordingly. To me, the best case scenario is to double Watson's production if he's going to be the top TE:

 

58 receptions 882 yards and 8 scores--pretty nice--that's about Todd Heap/Gonzalez territory for TEs. That would certainly make him better than Gonzalez last year (because of the TD count).

 

So do I feel comfortable with the 58, 882, 8 projection? As where I truly think what he can do--yes. But is it realistic?

 

1. David Givens is gone and there's really no solid replacement at WR.

2. Jackson is a rookie

3. Caldwell? Maybe but he's a different receiver than Givens. I don't think he's the answer.

 

So yes, I believe the projection should be closer to the best case scenario because after Branch what does Tom Brady really have as a redzone/intermediate option in the passing game? Vrabel? Sure, I know...still, you get the picture.

 

Since Watson won't be getting 100% of the TE looks, let's pair down the projections just by taking percentage points away from his plays seen. Let's say Watson gets 70% of the starting chores:

 

70%- 41 rec, 617 yards, 6 scores. (I think that's something I'm very comfortable using)

 

So that's my approach to a player in Watson's situation...you can adjust to the percentage to see if there's another number you find more comfortable for your projections.

 

How about Tony G? You asked about Roaf? I'm not buying the o-lineman goes down and suddenly the best weapon in their passing game is stuck on the line. If that were the case we would have seen depressed totals from Heap, Crumpler, or McMichael. My guess is Gonzalez got fewer scores because LJ is a less versatile back than Holmes. This to me is why Gonzo had more of an off-year--LBs and safeties didn't worry about LJ as a receiver out of the backfield as Holmes. Yes LJ had some nice plays in the passing game, but that was often a result of Tony G getting the attention.

 

What does that mean for Gonzo this year? I think he'll remain a top 5 TE this year but I don't see a huge comeback season.

 

Last few years:

Last Name	Year	Team	G	GS	Rush Tds	Rec	Rec Yd	Rec Td	Fpts
Gonzalez	2003	kan	16	0	0	71	916	10	151.6
Gonzalez	2004	kan	16	0	0	102	1258	7	167.8
Gonzalez	2005	kan	16	0	0	78	905	2	102.5

 

I think I'd throw out the 2004 season and use 2003 and 2005 as a basis for his 2006 projections. So at best Gonzo would be at 74 receptions, 910 yards and 6 scores if I were to average these two years I mentioned. That's about 24-25 fpts better than last year. He's just be a closer 5th to Heap last year with that total. I like using that projection.

 

So comparing the two?

 

Watson best case--136 fpts to Gonzo's 127.5

Watson @70%--98 to Gonzo's 127.5...

 

While I see people reaching for Watson in drafts, I don't see him going less than 1-2 rounds after Gonzo, do you? Right now, it's morel like 4-5 rounds later!

[Beef Ravioli 0]

Hey Wildman - I'm new to this so I need some help! My league scoring is like this:

 

Rushing Every 10 rushing yards 1 TD Rush 6

40+ yard TD rush bonus 2 2pt Rushing Conversion 2

 

Receiving Every 10 receiving yards 1 TD Reception 6

40+ yard TD rec bonus 2 2pt Receiving Conversion 2

 

I don't have very good RB's - C. Taylor, KJ, D. McCallister, L. Maroney, D. Williams, C. Benson

But my Wr's I think have some hope - TO, R. Williams, A. Boldin, D. Mason, M. Clayton

 

I can start two RB's or three WR's. What do you think? Should I try and make a trade with some WR's for a RB? I also have for QB's - P. Manning and S. McNair. Thanks for your help!!

[JREarly 0]

Wildman, I have been reading some of these and you are providing a very nice service. I will definately be back to this thread in the coming days. Keep it up.

[Wildman 0]

Hey Wildman - I'm new to this so I need some help! My league scoring is like this:

 

Rushing Every 10 rushing yards 1 TD Rush 6

40+ yard TD rush bonus 2 2pt Rushing Conversion 2

 

Receiving Every 10 receiving yards 1 TD Reception 6

40+ yard TD rec bonus 2 2pt Receiving Conversion 2

 

I don't have very good RB's - C. Taylor, KJ, D. McCallister, L. Maroney, D. Williams, C. Benson

But my Wr's I think have some hope - TO, R. Williams, A. Boldin, D. Mason, M. Clayton

 

I can start two RB's or three WR's. What do you think? Should I try and make a trade with some WR's for a RB? I also have for QB's - P. Manning and S. McNair. Thanks for your help!!

 

Beef, glad to help you (just a sidenote, you got the wrong place to post this question--no big deal, your new)

 

I like your team from top to bottom. I think between Taylor, KJ, and Benson you should have two starting quality RBs and if you don't like how they look after 2-3 weeks, thne you can deal 2-3 of those Wrs for an RB. I think that your rookie backs could easily surprise if they get a shot so you can afford to wait a bit.

 

Still if you want to go into the season with a better RB--then I think if you try to deal T.O. and Maroney or T.O. and Benson you might get an upgrade at Rb.

 

Now your scoring system looks fairly even, but it's more likely you'll have a top WR get 40+ TDs more often than a back. T.O. is good at this, but I think between Williams, Boldin, and Mason you are doing well without him. Is M. Clayton the Buc or the Raven? If the Buc, then definitely consider trading T.O. for a top back.

 

Hope that helps!

 

Wildman, I have been reading some of these and you are providing a very nice service. I will definately be back to this thread in the coming days. Keep it up.

 

Glad you like it. We had a guy do this last year that wasn't a part of the staff but he's now staffed elsewhere. he's a good guy and I thought I'd try to continue the service. So far, I think it's pretty good. I'd like to get more time to answer the Q's on the threads not posted, but time doesn't usually permit. Occassionally I can...

[Were-Gopher 0]

do i keep mcallister or frank gore?

[Wildman 0]

do i keep mcallister or frank gore?

 

Try the right thread topic next time to keep it orderly...

 

Clearly keep Gore. McAllister has less upside with this rehabbing knee. Gore is the undisputed starter on his team with no injuries that should limit him.

[mainone 0]

Could you please rate my team. Also when do you know when to go to the bench, trade and pick up free agents?

 

M.Hasselback

R.Wayne

J.Horn

R.Smith

R.Johnson

C.Williams

T.Gonzalez

S.Graham

Tampa Bay

 

Bench

D.McAllister

B.Lloyd

K.Warner

T.Duckett

 

Roster Positions: QB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, K, DEF, BN, BN, BN, BN

Stat Categories: Completions (.5)

Passing Yards (30 yards per point)

Passing Touchdowns (6)

Interceptions (-2)

Sacks (-1)

Rushing Attempts (.33)

Rushing Yards (10 yards per point)

Rushing Touchdowns (6)

Receptions (1)

Reception Yards (10 yards per point)

Reception Touchdowns (6)

Return Touchdowns (6)

2-Point Conversions (2)

Fumbles Lost (-2)

Offensive Fumble Return TD (6)

Field Goals 0-19 Yards (3)

Field Goals 20-29 Yards (3)

Field Goals 30-39 Yards (3)

Field Goals 40-49 Yards (4)

Field Goals 50+ Yards (5)

Point After Attempt Made (1)

Sack (1)

Interception (2)

Fumble Recovery (2)

Touchdown (6)

Safety (2)

Block Kick (2)

Points Allowed 0 points (12)

Points Allowed 1-6 points (10)

Points Allowed 7-13 points (8)

Points Allowed 14-20 points (4)

Points Allowed 21-27 points (0)

Points Allowed 28-34 points (-4)

Points Allowed 35+ points (-8)

[Jerod 0]

I am very new to this forum and I'm not sure if I should post this here or not. I posted it in the regular "a little help" forum but didn't think that was appropriate either. Anyhow, I'm looking for statistical breakdown on my team and whether I should trade for T. Green or stand pat with what I have and just adjust my flex player strategy.

 

In my league we start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 Wrs, 1 k, 1 def, and 1 bonus player that can be any of the above but defense. Usually bonus is QB but sometimes RB. I currently have on my roster:

 

Last Years Total Points

Byron Leftwich JAC QB 205.85

Jake Plummer DEN QB 292.50

Frank Gore SFO RB 101.30

LaMont Jordan OAK RB 233.80

LenDale White TEN RB 0.00

Mike Bell DEN RB 0.00

Tiki Barber NYG RB 340.00

Wali Lundy HOU RB 0.00

Andre Johnson HOU WR 91.20

Drew Bennett TEN WR 103.10

Hines Ward PIT WR 184.60

Larry Fitzgerald ARI WR 229.70

Mark Clayton BAL WR 77.60

Muhsin Muhammad CHI WR 99.00

John Kasay CAR K 107.00

Tampa Bay Buccaneers TAM Def/ST 187.00

 

Anyhow, I am thin at QB and want to know if I can stand pat starting Plummer and Lefty(bonus) with Tiki and Lamont or go with Plummer or Lefty with Tiki, Lamont, and Gore or Bell (bonus) for my third back. I am also considering trading one of my RBs to a team that's really thin at RB for Trent Green. He has D. Davis and Dillon. Statistically what would be my best option here? Is a 2nd QB or a 3rd RB more valuable to start?

 

League point system:

 

Rushing Rule

Scores 1 rule defined:

 

# 6.0 point(s) for each touchdown.

 

Length of Rushing Touchdowns 1 rule defined:

For position: QBs, RBs, WRs

# 3.0 bonus point(s) for scores from 30 to 49 yards.

# 5.0 bonus point(s) for scores from 50 to 99 yards.

Total Rushing Yardage 2 rules defined:

For position: QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs

# 0.1 bonus point(s) each 1 total yards, starting with 1 yard(s).

# 3.0 bonus point(s) for 100 or more yard(s).

 

Passing Rule

Scores 1 rule defined:

For position: QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs, Def/STs

# 6.0 point(s) for each touchdown.

# 2.0 point(s) for each 2-point conversion.

Length of Passing Touchdowns 1 rule defined:

For position: QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs

# 3.0 bonus point(s) for scores from 30 to 49 yards.

# 5.0 bonus point(s) for scores from 50 to 99 yards.

Total Passing Yardage 2 rules defined:

For position: QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs

# 0.05 bonus point(s) each 1 total yards, starting with 1 yard(s).

# 3.0 bonus point(s) for 300 or more yard(s).

 

Thanks!

[Beef Ravioli 0]

Break down SJax and Lamont for me. I have Lamont and am kind of afraid of him (got him in the 2nd). I am kind of high on SJax and would like ot get him from this guy. I have some depth at WR(Boldin, Driver, A. Bryant, Michael Clayton) and know I would have to give up one of them with Lamont to even have a chance to get him. Is to much to give for what I will get back? Will they be comparable this season? Thanks for your help - hope this is the right forum for this!

[Wildman 0]

Sorry guys, the purpose of this thread was to help you with projecting players in various ways, not to do the job for you or do some sort of vague stat breakdown of the team (not sure what that means anyhow).

 

If you would like me to help you project a players performance that's fine...see the first posts from this thread that asks for that kind of comparison between Leftwich and Eli Manning as an example.

 

 

 

I am very new to this forum and I'm not sure if I should post this here or not. I posted it in the regular "a little help" forum but didn't think that was appropriate either. Anyhow, I'm looking for statistical breakdown on my team and whether I should trade for T. Green or stand pat with what I have and just adjust my flex player strategy.

 

In my league we start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 Wrs, 1 k, 1 def, and 1 bonus player that can be any of the above but defense. Usually bonus is QB but sometimes RB. I currently have on my roster:

 

Last Years Total Points

Byron Leftwich JAC QB 205.85

Jake Plummer DEN QB 292.50

Frank Gore SFO RB 101.30

LaMont Jordan OAK RB 233.80

LenDale White TEN RB 0.00

Mike Bell DEN RB 0.00

Tiki Barber NYG RB 340.00

Wali Lundy HOU RB 0.00

Andre Johnson HOU WR 91.20

Drew Bennett TEN WR 103.10

Hines Ward PIT WR 184.60

Larry Fitzgerald ARI WR 229.70

Mark Clayton BAL WR 77.60

Muhsin Muhammad CHI WR 99.00

John Kasay CAR K 107.00

Tampa Bay Buccaneers TAM Def/ST 187.00

 

Anyhow, I am thin at QB and want to know if I can stand pat starting Plummer and Lefty(bonus) with Tiki and Lamont or go with Plummer or Lefty with Tiki, Lamont, and Gore or Bell (bonus) for my third back. I am also considering trading one of my RBs to a team that's really thin at RB for Trent Green. He has D. Davis and Dillon. Statistically what would be my best option here? Is a 2nd QB or a 3rd RB more valuable to start?

 

League point system:

 

Rushing Rule

Scores 1 rule defined:

 

# 6.0 point(s) for each touchdown.

 

Length of Rushing Touchdowns 1 rule defined:

For position: QBs, RBs, WRs

# 3.0 bonus point(s) for scores from 30 to 49 yards.

# 5.0 bonus point(s) for scores from 50 to 99 yards.

Total Rushing Yardage 2 rules defined:

For position: QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs

# 0.1 bonus point(s) each 1 total yards, starting with 1 yard(s).

# 3.0 bonus point(s) for 100 or more yard(s).

 

Passing Rule

Scores 1 rule defined:

For position: QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs, Def/STs

# 6.0 point(s) for each touchdown.

# 2.0 point(s) for each 2-point conversion.

Length of Passing Touchdowns 1 rule defined:

For position: QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs

# 3.0 bonus point(s) for scores from 30 to 49 yards.

# 5.0 bonus point(s) for scores from 50 to 99 yards.

Total Passing Yardage 2 rules defined:

For position: QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs

# 0.05 bonus point(s) each 1 total yards, starting with 1 yard(s).

# 3.0 bonus point(s) for 300 or more yard(s).

 

Thanks!

 

You're more likely to get bonus points for passing scores from how you explain it so go with the QB. I'm not sure I'd rather have Green over those other two QBs, although he's rated higher. I think if this is the only trade you have available, I wouldn't do it. I'd rather go with your 3 RBs or those 2 QBs than give up what you have for Green...

 

What you are asking for from me at the top is a little vague and possibly way too much. It sounds like you want me to project the performance for every player on your team...Like you said, you're not sure where to post this...If you want to really break down your team, I'd suggest buying the Cheatsheet Compiler and Draft Buddy. You can use a variety of projections with your league rules to see this for yourself.

 

Break down SJax and Lamont for me. I have Lamont and am kind of afraid of him (got him in the 2nd). I am kind of high on SJax and would like ot get him from this guy. I have some depth at WR(Boldin, Driver, A. Bryant, Michael Clayton) and know I would have to give up one of them with Lamont to even have a chance to get him. Is to much to give for what I will get back? Will they be comparable this season? Thanks for your help - hope this is the right forum for this!

 

 

See above, but I think if you refine your question I might be able to give you some sort of answer. Frist, what are your scoring rules. Second if you got Lamont what did you project him to do and why? This thread is more about you bringing some work to the table and me helping you refine it. This is a new type of thread so I know only the first few guys that posted to it actually got the right idea. It's no big deal that you asked, just telling you what I'm expecting on this thread as opposed to the others.

 

You should also tell me how many receivers/backs you can start. That will help me give you a better answer too.

 

Thanks!

[Beef Ravioli 0]

Thanks Wildman!

 

I hope this helps. We must start two RB's and two WR's.

 

I copied and pasted the scoring from my league I hope that's what you wanted. Your dealing with a real rookie here - sorry!

 

My main concern is for what I have to give up, I would get not as good but comparable numbers with Lamont, and loose Driver. I need an experts opinion.

 

 

Number of Rushing TDs 0-99 6 points each

Length of Rushing TD 0-20 1

Length of Rushing TD 21-49 2

Length of Rushing TD 50-74 3

Length of Rushing TD 75-110 4

 

Number of Receiving TDs 0-99 6 points each

Length of Receiving TD 0-20 1

Length of Receiving TD 21-49 2

Length of Receiving TD 50-74 3

Length of Receiving TD 75-110 4

Receptions 0-99 .5 points each

 

Total Yards from Scrimmage 25-49 1

Total Yards from Scrimmage 50-74 3

Total Yards from Scrimmage 75-99 6

Total Yards from Scrimmage 100-124 9

Total Yards from Scrimmage 125-149 12

Total Yards from Scrimmage 150-174 15

Total Yards from Scrimmage 175-199 18

Total Yards from Scrimmage 200-224 21

Total Yards from Scrimmage 225-249 24

Total Yards from Scrimmage 250-274 27

Total Yards from Scrimmage 275-299 30

Total Yards from Scrimmage 300-324 33

Total Yards from Scrimmage 325-349 36

Total Yards from Scrimmage 350-374 39

Total Yards from Scrimmage 375-399 42

[Wildman 0]

Thanks Wildman!

 

I hope this helps. We must start two RB's and two WR's.

 

I copied and pasted the scoring from my league I hope that's what you wanted. Your dealing with a real rookie here - sorry!

 

My main concern is for what I have to give up, I would get not as good but comparable numbers with Lamont, and loose Driver. I need an experts opinion.

Number of Rushing TDs 0-99 6 points each

Length of Rushing TD 0-20 1

Length of Rushing TD 21-49 2

Length of Rushing TD 50-74 3

Length of Rushing TD 75-110 4

 

Number of Receiving TDs 0-99 6 points each

Length of Receiving TD 0-20 1

Length of Receiving TD 21-49 2

Length of Receiving TD 50-74 3

Length of Receiving TD 75-110 4

Receptions 0-99 .5 points each

 

Total Yards from Scrimmage 25-49 1

Total Yards from Scrimmage 50-74 3

Total Yards from Scrimmage 75-99 6

Total Yards from Scrimmage 100-124 9

Total Yards from Scrimmage 125-149 12

Total Yards from Scrimmage 150-174 15

Total Yards from Scrimmage 175-199 18

Total Yards from Scrimmage 200-224 21

Total Yards from Scrimmage 225-249 24

Total Yards from Scrimmage 250-274 27

Total Yards from Scrimmage 275-299 30

Total Yards from Scrimmage 300-324 33

Total Yards from Scrimmage 325-349 36

Total Yards from Scrimmage 350-374 39

Total Yards from Scrimmage 375-399 42

 

 

Keep Jordan. Think about it this way...Jax could wind up better, but how much more? Not enough to lose Driver and Jordan, IMO. Plus Jordan had a good season on a team that was worse than this year's version. Shell will have this team playing good football in the second half of the season. Even during the first half, anticipate Jordan to get the lion share of the carries and be productive like he was last year. A healthy Moss will stretch the field enough for Jordan to work underneath as a receiver or deal with defensive fronts that provide less pressure on the run game. Jordan has good breakaway speed--better than Jackson and your points system favors a what Jordan will bring to the table--total yards from scrimmage, which will be his specialty.

 

Although the preseason didn't look great for the Raiders, don't worry too much about it. Look at the last Raider game and you'll see Brooks and Moss got on the right track, which also means the line improved enough to give them time.

[mainone 0]

Who should do better in week 1?

 

Hasselbeck vs. Det @ Det

 

or

 

Warner vs. SF @ Ari

 

Any thoughts?

[mike06 0]

Who will do better in week 1 i have a tough RB decision

 

Mike Bell vs STL or Chris Brown vs NYJ or Chester Taylor vs WAS

 

thanks wildman

[richeyjason 0]

Is this a good trade?

 

McGahee for Hasselback. My QB's are Culpepper and Brees. My RB's are C. Williams, McGahee, Gore and C. Taylor.

 

Who should I start this week at RB? I need two.

 

thanks

[Ray_T 718]

Alright here's a the process I'll take with a floor-to-ceiling projection on Leftwich. I kept the 16-game projection I used from the previous response as the ceiling. I created this projection by taking the totals in each category from his game by game stats with the exception of the Cardinals game where he got hurt and multiplied that adjusted average by 16 games. I thought this artificially deflated his ceiling because it's going to be vitually impossible for Lefty to have a 2- attempt game if he finishes the season....

 

But with the 14 and 12-game projections I included that clunker effort into the average score and then multiplied those average game totals by the amount of games. This gives these projections in what I'll consider a raw state:

 

Fpts	Gms	Comp	Att	Yds	PTd	Int	Ratt	Ryd	RTd
185.28	16	277	480	3368	24	8	50	107	3
147.84	14	223	384	2702	19	6	39	85	3
126.72	12	191	329	2316	16	5	34	73	2

 

Pretty wide range here. The thing that troubles me is the low interception totals, and probably what many people would question as a relatively high rush TD total for a stocky QB that looks plain awkward when he breaks the pocket.

 

Honestly, I think the Ints need adjusting because in my day job it's better to project numbers that help you expect the worst within a reasonable cost/expectation and hope for the best rather than project with little room for a pleasant surprise. At the same time, I think the rushing TDs can be kept:

 

1. Lefty has gotten in shape this year. I think it's a shocker, but they say he looks downright lean

2. The presence of Lewis in the redzone and those other two tall guys are going to distract the defense enough for Byron to sneak a few of these scores in there. I believe it's quite reasonable he'll have 2-3 and unofficially believe 4-5 is likely.

 

Personally I like how the rest of the stats look because the loss of Jimmy Smith as a reliable target should be made up for with a decent receiver at TE that will make enough catches to keep Lefty's percentage above 60%. That's my take anway.

 

So from looking at these preliminary stats, do you think we're heading in the right direction? What do you think about the rushing totals and ints? Too little, just right, too much? Why?

 

I think adding 2-4 INTs to these projections "looks right." This is why projecting is probably more craft than science. If I were to attempt a better explanation, I'd say Leftwich will still have some rapport to develop with Lewis and Matt Jones which might create crossed signals resulting in balls thrown right to a DB.

 

After I get your answers, we'll make some final projections with these numbers.

 

As for Eli...let's take a similar approach by removing his worst game from the average we take of last year's totals. His worst game is one of 3 choices.

 

a. His week 13, 12 for 31, 153 yard, 0 score, 2 int effort.

b. His week 10, 23 for 48, 291 yard, 0 score, 4 int effort

c. His week 8, 12 for 31, 146, 1 score, 1 int effort.

 

Personally, I'd choose the 4 int effort because I believe Eli will be less likely to throw 4 picks than throw for less than 200 yards and no scores. Especially in the NFC east and with a good running game that could help him out.

 

Tell me whether you agree or disagree than then we'll move forward with some preliminary projections on Eli then work backwards with the skill players to see whether we should make adjustments to his totals.

 

Sound good?

 

 

Why dont you take the average of those 3 games and remove it from the average instead.

 

This way you get a better Weighted average.

[jetman 0]

Project who will have the best year of the big 3 RBs.

[Ray_T 718]

okay, I'm going to try a projection on Alex Smith.

 

I noticed something very interesting that is worth making note of that made me think I could do this, so I'm going to use some things from your technique to do a projection here.

 

Let me know what you think.

 

First, I'm going to compare Eli Manning #1 pick overall in 2004 and his rookie season to Alex Smith #1 overall in 2005's rookie year (numbers rounded to make reading & calculations easier)

 

 

Manning 2004 9 GP 95/197 (48% comp pct) 1043 yds 6 TD 9 Int Yards per completion 11

Smith 2005 9 GP 84/165 (50.9 comp pct) 875 yds 1 TD 9 int Yards per completion 10.5

 

I notice a VERY close correlation in the numbers. completion % a little higher for Smith, but he had less TD's. (no surprise given the weaker supporting cast and less talented receivers with less experience)

 

now, look at Mannings 2005 numbers:

 

Manning 2005 16 GP 294/557 (52.8 comp pct) 3762 yards 24 TD 17 INT

 

completions and attempts roughly tripled from the rookie year completion percentage went up by 4.5% TD's Quadrupled and Interceptions doubled.

 

While this was an exceptional turnaround, Manning got a new top end receiver (Burress) and a very good coach Coughlin and a very good defense to give him lots of chances to do something with the football. Not to mention a top end TE and a very good set of Receivers (toomer and burress)

 

Well I'm gonna surprise you.

 

Alex Smith has a new receiver (Bryant) a new TE that is projected to become a stud (Davis) and a new RB (gore) that has some good skills.

 

now, if we Triple the number of pass attempts that Smith gets he would end up with 495 attempts for the year. I think this number is a little high because he doesnt have the kind of defense that will keep opposing offenses off the field. Lets downgrade that to about 460.

 

if we assume his completion percentage goes up by 5% we are looking at roughly 56%. I think this is also reasonable. this means he should complete 257 passes out of the 460 we project for him.

 

Mannings yards per completion went up from 11 to 12.3. Let us do two calculations for smith. one if this number stays the same, and one if it goes up to 12.5 yards/completion. This will give us a best and a worst case scenario. Best case is 257 * 12.5=3212 yards Worst case: 257 * 10.5=2698 yards.

 

So taking an average of the two, I project (2698 + 3212)/2=2955 yards projected for the year.

 

this may seem high, but this stud QB has 2 new receivers who are solid and a new offensive Co-ordinator(Turner) who really knows what he is doing.

 

to project interceptions, I double what he had (like what happened with manning) so he gets 22 projected interceptions.

 

because he only threw one TD last season, I cant really do a proper projection, but I will do an interesting calculation.... Manning had one TD for every 15.8 completions as a rookie, and one for every 12.25 completions in his second year.

 

I dont expect Smith will do this well cuz he doesnt have the ground game or a Tiki Barber/Brandon Jacobs. so lets assume one for every 14 completions. Based on this, I'm looking at 18 TD's

 

Final projection: 257/460, 2950 yards, 18 TD's 22 int.

 

The number seems a little high, but I dont think this number is unreachable... and surely if he is a first overall selection, you would like to think he has talent that is at least close to that of Eli manning.

 

His pathetic rookie year was definitely a result of a weak team, horrible O-Line & poor receivers.

 

This organization has given the kid some players that can do things and a proven coach who knows what hes doing.

 

I drafted this kid to be my #4 QB, but I think he has some potential.

 

so Matt, I'd like to have some insight from you to see what you think of all of this.

[JustDon'tKnow 0]

hey which defense would you start between panthers or bengals

[ricanrockers 39]

Who should do better in week 1?

 

Hasselbeck vs. Det @ Det

 

or

 

Warner vs. SF @ Ari

 

Any thoughts?

 

Start Warner...I think he's going to have a great game....