Wildman's Wednesday Session--Projection Questions

[JoseyWales 0]

Anyone want to take a crack getting an Alex Smith vs. Rex Grossman comparison started now that we have two weeks of data?

 

For a scoring system:

 

6 points for all TDs

-1 point for interceptions

1 point per 25 passing yards

1 point per 10 rushing yards

[ruthless 0]

Wildman,

 

Who has the better week - McNair @ Cleveland or Brady @ Denver?

[lguero1 4]

Wildman,

 

Who has the better week - McNair @ Cleveland or Brady @ Denver?

Brady is at home vs. DEN.

[ruthless 0]

Brady is at home vs. DEN.

 

Very true. My bad - the downside of multi-tasking!

[Than 0]

ok i need help with my RB's and WR's League rules are as follows, RB's: 1 point for every 10 yards and 6 per TD WR's: 1 point for every 25 yds and 6 per TD. RB's I have rudi, Dunn, Maroney and Gore need to play 2 just curious in your opinion which 2 will have the better week for week 9, have Rudi vs Baltimore ranked #1 against the rush Gore against the Vikes ranked #2, Dunn against Detroit ranked 16th and Maroney against Indy ranked 32nd ( I'm sure you know the rankings just trying to be as helpful as possible)

Ok Now on my receivers which I need to start 2 of also, I have Steve Smith on a by so it leaves me to pick from M. Muhammad, Rod Smith or Doug Gabriel. Ty in advance for any insight you may give me.

[jbizzle06 2]

my lineup is:

 

QB: D. Brees

RB: S. Alexander

RB: F. Gore

WR: D. Jackson

WR: C. Johnson

WR: T. Houshz

Flex:???

 

Who should I go with at flex?

T. Henry (TEN) vs IND

B. Jacons (NYG) vs DAL

D. Williams (CAR) @PHI

D. Foster (CAR) @PHI

[Ray_T 718]

okay, I'm going to try a projection on Alex Smith.

 

I noticed something very interesting that is worth making note of that made me think I could do this, so I'm going to use some things from your technique to do a projection here.

 

Let me know what you think.

 

First, I'm going to compare Eli Manning #1 pick overall in 2004 and his rookie season to Alex Smith #1 overall in 2005's rookie year (numbers rounded to make reading & calculations easier)

Manning 2004 9 GP 95/197 (48% comp pct) 1043 yds 6 TD 9 Int Yards per completion 11

Smith 2005 9 GP 84/165 (50.9 comp pct) 875 yds 1 TD 9 int Yards per completion 10.5

 

I notice a VERY close correlation in the numbers. completion % a little higher for Smith, but he had less TD's. (no surprise given the weaker supporting cast and less talented receivers with less experience)

 

now, look at Mannings 2005 numbers:

 

Manning 2005 16 GP 294/557 (52.8 comp pct) 3762 yards 24 TD 17 INT

 

completions and attempts roughly tripled from the rookie year completion percentage went up by 4.5% TD's Quadrupled and Interceptions doubled.

 

While this was an exceptional turnaround, Manning got a new top end receiver (Burress) and a very good coach Coughlin and a very good defense to give him lots of chances to do something with the football. Not to mention a top end TE and a very good set of Receivers (toomer and burress)

 

Well I'm gonna surprise you.

 

Alex Smith has a new receiver (Bryant) a new TE that is projected to become a stud (Davis) and a new RB (gore) that has some good skills.

 

now, if we Triple the number of pass attempts that Smith gets he would end up with 495 attempts for the year. I think this number is a little high because he doesnt have the kind of defense that will keep opposing offenses off the field. Lets downgrade that to about 460.

 

if we assume his completion percentage goes up by 5% we are looking at roughly 56%. I think this is also reasonable. this means he should complete 257 passes out of the 460 we project for him.

 

Mannings yards per completion went up from 11 to 12.3. Let us do two calculations for smith. one if this number stays the same, and one if it goes up to 12.5 yards/completion. This will give us a best and a worst case scenario. Best case is 257 * 12.5=3212 yards Worst case: 257 * 10.5=2698 yards.

 

So taking an average of the two, I project (2698 + 3212)/2=2955 yards projected for the year.

 

this may seem high, but this stud QB has 2 new receivers who are solid and a new offensive Co-ordinator(Turner) who really knows what he is doing.

 

to project interceptions, I double what he had (like what happened with manning) so he gets 22 projected interceptions.

 

because he only threw one TD last season, I cant really do a proper projection, but I will do an interesting calculation.... Manning had one TD for every 15.8 completions as a rookie, and one for every 12.25 completions in his second year.

 

I dont expect Smith will do this well cuz he doesnt have the ground game or a Tiki Barber/Brandon Jacobs. so lets assume one for every 14 completions. Based on this, I'm looking at 18 TD's

 

Final projection: 257/460, 2950 yards, 18 TD's 22 int.

 

The number seems a little high, but I dont think this number is unreachable... and surely if he is a first overall selection, you would like to think he has talent that is at least close to that of Eli manning.

 

His pathetic rookie year was definitely a result of a weak team, horrible O-Line & poor receivers.

 

This organization has given the kid some players that can do things and a proven coach who knows what hes doing.

 

I drafted this kid to be my #4 QB, but I think he has some potential.

 

so Matt, I'd like to have some insight from you to see what you think of all of this.

 

 

I had hoped that Matt would reply to this at the time I did it, but from the look of it, my projection isnt too far offbase

 

he is on pace to get 2857 yards, 16 TD's and 16 INT's. although it is worth noting that Smith has a fairly favourable schedule and may actually meet or exceed my projection. So I dont think this turned out too bad at all.

[Were-Gopher 0]

Help please, I made it to the finals IN our league this year and 1st place pays $245,2nd place is a mere $75.

Big Ben is my qb but i picked up Rattay of of waivers and am seriously thinking of starting him vs Clevelland this week.

Also I have 3 defences: Denver,Bengals, and the Titans- I don't have a clue who to start???????