On the Clock! (the polls return!)

[football_scooter 0]

Std scoring, PPR, 12 team league, all TDs 6 pts. Starting roster = 1 QB, 2 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D/ST

 

It's early 4th round. You took Ronnie Brown at 1.09, then followed it up with a WR pick in Steve Smith in the 2nd at 2.04 - after that, though you were looking to go RB in the 3rd, you couldn't pass up on Hines Ward at 3.09 - a stronger play than most RBs on the board in a PPR league with so many options left at RB.

 

You've targeted both Willie Parker and Warrick Dunn for the return trip at 4.04 and they both make it to you. Corey Dillon, CMart, Reuben Droughns and Kevin Jones were all taken between 3.09 and here, so this is it.

 

Who do you take, FWParker or Dunn?

 

You're on the clock!

[9-Route 0]

i picked parker.

 

he had a great breakout season last yr. i expect him to be more polished at reading holes; in addition, i liked his incorporation into the pass game/screen game during the playoffs---i think he'll get some nice receiving numbers this season. i also expect more than the 5-6 tds he had (~8-10 this yr).

 

dunn is still a very good, underrated hb, lining up in a run-first falcon attack; but, his tds numbers sagged badly and his receiving status has plummeted.

 

they are very similar players, but i feel parker's star is rising while dunn's has plateaued/straightened.

[football_scooter 0]

no concerns about the presence of Staley and Haynes?

[wizbang 10]

I also picked Parker because I think he has more upside. Dunn is more solid. You know what you're going to get: a mid to bottom tier #2 RB. Parker has more downside but he's also younger. Both are small backs but Dunn is 31 (maybe still 30 but close?). To me that raises a flag. The big concern with Parker is that he'll continue to lose red zone touches and might only get 5-7 TDs. Well, that's about what Dunn typically get anyway (though his yardage has been much better).

 

Parker seems like more of a risk but also has the upside.

 

I think Parker will definitely be better than last year. Peoplen know Bettis took away carries in the red zone but it was more than that. Bettis carried the ball 110 times last season and that was after missing the first 3 games. That equates to just under 10/game and Haynes still had 74 carries along with 38 for Deuce. I highly doubt that Haynes and Deuce (or Humes) will combine for over 200 carries. IMO Parker will get 300+ this season (which is only up 45 from last year when he missed one game so I don't buy the durability or wearing down arguments). At 4.7/carry that puts him at 1410 yards.

 

In the first 8 games Parker had a total of 6 receptions. In the last 7 (he missed one) he caught 13 and then in four playoff games he caught 13 for 81 and a TD. Project his playoff games over a season and it equals 52 catches for 324 yards and 4 TDs.

 

That may seem overly optimistic for Parker and it probably is but it's not unrealistic. I peg him as a decent #2 RB. Middle of the pack or around 18-20 overall RB. That is right about where Dunn usually is so the two are close. IMO upside goes to Parker though.

 

His TD run in the superbowl was absolutely HUGE for Parker. First, it gives him some confidence and momentum heading into this season. Second (and most importantly) it gave the coaching staff enough confidence to keep from signing an FA or spending a high draft pick on insurance. I wonder, would Pitts have drafted a LenDale White in the first had Parker ended the superbowl with 9 carries for 18 yards?

[9-Route 0]

no concerns about the presence of Staley and Haynes?

 

i think staley is done. he held up for like 2 decent games last yr (i recall at least one 75yd effort), but he is at best a 4th qtr player for 2 final drives.

 

haynes will be used more often, but i dont see him gouging as many tds or yds as bettis did because he is not yet as polished a runner as even parker. i still see a balanced attack in pitt, but parker will get significantly enough gravy to produce a fine yr (~1300-8/10).

[Fumbleweed 479]

I chose Dunn, who I have the utmost respect for as a player and a fantasy prospect. It's close, however, as Parker is going to get plenty of touches. I just think the Duckett experiment in Atlanta is basically over and with Alex Gibbs still in charge of the offensive line, Dunn is going to have some running lanes and will produce big yardage numbers.

 

Both players drop significantly obviously in TD-only leagues (if those still exist).

[ShaneFalco 0]

Dunn will probably be underrated again this year.

 

Also. I feel as if Parker is going to be overvalued this year. He probably isn't going to be getting many goalline carries, so I don't forsee a very high TD total. I think 7 TDs is his ceiling, with a more likely total of 4 or 5. I say Dunn will outproduce Parker this year...

 

Anyone know the ADP for these guys?

[wizbang 10]

Dunn will probably be underrated again this year.

 

Also. I feel as if Parker is going to be overvalued this year. He probably isn't going to be getting many goalline carries, so I don't forsee a very high TD total. I think 7 TDs is his ceiling, with a more likely total of 4 or 5. I say Dunn will outproduce Parker this year...

 

Anyone know the ADP for these guys?

 

I don't know about this. Parker had 5 last year with both Bettis and Haynes stealing touches. I don't see how we should expect that number to go down. I think 7-10 total TDs is a reasonable expectation. Dunn only scored 4 last season and while I think that will definitely go up, I don't think it's any more likely than it is for Parker. (of course, opinions and a-0's and all that jazz).

[hipcheck 0]

Overall, I think I've enjoyed' having DUNN on my Team the last two years. I give him the slight edge here over PARKER. Sure he's had some disappointing weeks, and a couple of injuries. But, Who hasn't ? -- Also, I know its crazy, but DUNN & The ATLANTA Offense have been really fun to watch on Directv the past 2 seasons. .. Not a reason to draft him, ... but DUNN is an exciting player, that is capable of taking screen passes to the house in an instant' !!!

[football_scooter 0]

Anyone know the ADP for these guys?

 

At present on Antsports:

Dunn 4.03

Parker 4.01

 

 

Interesting side note:

In 5 of the 7 $ leagues I've been in over the last 3 years, the league champion took Dunn in the early 4th round, maximizing value on his 1st 3 picks.

 

I imagine this is possible with FWP too, as he seems like "the new Dunn", but IMO the old Dunn isn't quite through yet...

 

Follow up question: What happens to Dunn's value if, as rumored, Duckett gets dealt?

 

but DUNN is an exciting player, that is capable of taking screen passes to the house in an instant' !!!

 

too bad Vick appears incapable of throwing a screen pass...."touch" is not his game.

 

FWP seems capable of taking screen passes to the house too, IMO.

 

This one's very close. I'd give the nod to FWP, but one of Haynes or Staley is going to be in there, an more heavily than people are speculating here IMO.

[fantasytool 0]

Warrick Dunn is a solid, though not spectacular, #2 RB. Though Parker certainly has more upside (Bettis retiring, younger, a year of experience under his belt), I would rather go with the safe pick in Warrick Dunn. Dunn puts up about the same stats every year. I also feel that Dunn is probably going to have more than the 2 TDs he posted last year. Either way, in the end, I doubt there will be much variance between these two guys, they should put up similar stats.

[TD Ryan2 316]

Std scoring, PPR

 

 

Dunn.

[ellisonb11 0]

no concerns about the presence of Staley and Haynes?

 

no concern for duckett??

[football_scooter 0]

no concern for duckett??

 

Why would Duckett concern me when talking about Fast Willie?

[ellisonb11 0]

Why would Duckett concern me when talking about Fast Willie?

 

because your talking about being concern about FWP with Duce and Haynes. Theres also concern about Dunn and Duckett. both have the same situation. what were u thinking i meant?

[football_scooter 0]

because your talking about being concern about FWP with Duce and Haynes. Theres also concern about Dunn and Duckett. both have the same situation. what were u thinking i meant?

 

Since I already mentioned my concern (or lack thereof) about Dunn, I had no idea.

[Jackson Biggs 0]

FWP....an owner last year so i'm biased, but more TD opportunities give Fast Willie the ede

[Yippie Skippy 0]

no concerns about the presence of Staley and Haynes?

 

If not for this concern, FWParker would be a first round pick. He was really in Bettis' shadow last year. Undervalued is how much Jerome mentored the kid.

 

Does Staley and Haynes roles = Duckett?? Maybe, but both Dunn and Parker will likely have the best ff stats of RBs for their teams. The Steelers and Falcons should both finish in the top 7 in rushing.

 

I'd be happy to get either at the 4.04, but it would be hard for either to make my squad before then.

 

I'm a Steeler fan and that is the only reason I'd choose FWParker on this very close call.

[Phurfur 70]

FWP....an owner last year so i'm biased, but more TD opportunities give Fast Willie the ede

 

 

 

Only I was a Dunn owner last year, not enough TD's

[bgard72 10]

I'd go with Dunn...he's solid.

[Steel City Blues 0]

Willie Parker for me.

 

Can you say HOMER? He should get decent yardage even though the scores will go to Staley or Haynes.

 

Caveat: Dunn usually out produces several players drafted ahead of him. Could happen again if the TDs bounce his way.

[football_scooter 0]

FWP....an owner last year so i'm biased, but more TD opportunities give Fast Willie the ede

 

See, here's where I have a hard time. I keep seeing this, yet Pittsburgh showed no hesitation in giving someone else the rock at the stripe. last year it was Betis, and IMO, it will be either Staley or Haynes in '06.

 

I think either of these RBs could have the highest TD totals - with these guys, it's who breaks the long run and scores...because if either are brought down at the 5, it's going to go to someone else.

 

The downside to Dunn that hasn't ben mentioned yet is Michael Vick, going round the outside, round the outside, round the outside (thank you, M&M) - so even if Duckett gets dealt, Dunn will lose 3-5 TDs to his QB. That's a bit annoying when you're a Dunn owner.

 

But I think either FWP or DUnn could have the TD lead between them. Both score on kinda flukish plays, so it's a matter of who breaks the most without getting taken down at the 2.

 

 

 

 

ETA, I'm shocked that this isn't closer - the FWP hype machine must be rollin'. When I created this OTC, I was kind of laughing, as I see them as nearly identical players/value.

[whoisjgalt 0]

Std scoring, PPR

Dunn.

 

Not so fast. Dunn's only caught 29 each of the last two seasons (with 16 starts each year). FWP had 18 last year in 15 games. Is that approximate ten point difference substantial enough to sway your opinion? It isn't for me.

[whoisjgalt 0]

The Steelers seemed to make a pretty big committment to FWP this past offseason. Knowing that Bettis was done, they made no move to grab a significant free agent RB nor did they draft one 'til very late. That's an important statement about FWP's value to them, IMO.

 

I won a redraft title last year taking Dunn in a PPR league (of course he wasn't the only reason). But I didn't pick him 'til the early 5th. He's great value there and still good value in the 4th. I just see more from FWP this year.

[TD Ryan2 316]

Dunn.

 

Not so fast. Dunn's only caught 29 each of the last two seasons (with 16 starts each year). FWP had 18 last year in 15 games. Is that approximate ten point difference substantial enough to sway your opinion? It isn't for me.

 

yes, but those back to back 29's are the lowest of Dunn's career.

Over his 9 seasons, he's averaged 44 catches per season with highs of 64 and 68... that's enough to prove to me that Dunn is an elite pass catcher out of the backfield.

 

In a close call this tight, that IS enough to sway my opinion. I KNOW Dunn's an elite pass catcher... Willie's fast but I'm not sure that I'm ready to call him "elite" as a receiver.

[football_scooter 0]

The Steelers seemed to make a pretty big committment to FWP this past offseason. Knowing that Bettis was done, they made no move to grab a significant free agent RB nor did they draft one 'til very late. That's an important statement about FWP's value to them, IMO.

Yeah - the statement was, "we have Haynes and Staley on the roster."

 

Duce Staley was to be the heir apparent to Bettis when they signed him.

[Dr. Octopus 0]

Everyone seems to be forgetting Duce Staley was the pre-season starting RB in Pittsburgh coming off of a very successful 2004 season before getting injured that season and in the 2005 pre-season. Staley was injured and then basically asked to sacrifice for the team by being inactive once he was healthy since he didn't play special teams and Parker/Bettis/Haynes were already in swing and doing fine. They repaid him for his loyalty by bringing him back, so those saying the Steelers not obtaining a back via FA or draft shows their faith in FWP are not seeing the whole picture. They have Staley and Haynes and did draft Humes another big Pittsburgh type RB.

 

The Steelers are a power running team. Parker will get carries, but will likely be pulled at the goal-line and may find himself on the sideline during the second half when the Steelers have the lead and Staley and Haynes grind the ball.

 

Dunn is a good gl back despite his small stature, although Vick will take alot of his opportunities. He is up there in age, but likely still has another season left in him. He doesn't have the carries of a back his age as he split with Alstott early and Ducket later.

[mgs316 14]

Round 1: Stud RB

Round 2: Stud WR

Round 3: Stud WR

Round 4 : Parker/Dunn

 

Works for me.

 

As of right now, they are the same exact player, but Willie has the potential to be better.

 

I'll take FWP.

[Kilroy 0]

I'd take my chances on Parker coming through with a career year rather then expect Dunn to repeat last seasons performance. No one knows what to expect from Haynes and i don't see Duce as much of a threat because when he gets overused he always gets injured. He should steal receptions out of the backfield though on both 3rd downs and some other situations.

[Lionsjunkie 1]

You guys are focken nuts...FWP stunk last year other than a few big games.

 

The smurf Dunn has proven over time that he is a capable back...albeit one that does not put up great numbers year after year, but he is consistent.

 

Dunn has B2B 1000 yard seasons and a total of 4 in his career.

 

FWP has 5 100 yard games in his career and when it counted most (Superbowl run...he SUCKED)

47 rushes....132 yards (whopping 2.8 avg) in 3 playoff games

 

Let's take a look a little deeper into FWP 100 yard games.

Week 1....vs TENN....22nd ranked run D

Week 2....at HOU...WORST RUN D IN NFL LAST YEAR

Week 7....at CIN.... 20th in league...but I'll give it to him...division foe on the road

Week 16...at CLEV....30th ranked run D

Week 17....vs DET....23rd ranked run D

 

So, in a nutshell he STUNK it up for the better part of last season but all you FWP ball lickers remmeber games 1 & 2 & 16 & 17.

 

In his 5 "big" games, he went 108-668 (6.18 avg)

In the other 14 games.....196-666 (3.4 avg)...did I just add that right...hang tight....YES I DID ...he is far WORSE than I thought.

 

So many of you guys are fooled by the most over-rated back in the game...he is a home run threat with dynamite speed...when he gets a monster hole, but other than that....HE STINKS

 

Don't be the fool that drafts him...he won't be the starter there by week 4.....bank it

[Steel City Blues 0]

Everyone seems to be forgetting Duce Staley was the pre-season starting RB in Pittsburgh coming off of a very successful 2004 season before getting injured that season and in the 2005 pre-season. Staley was injured and then basically asked to sacrifice for the team by being inactive once he was healthy since he didn't play special teams and Parker/Bettis/Haynes were already in swing and doing fine. They repaid him for his loyalty by bringing him back, so those saying the Steelers not obtaining a back via FA or draft shows their faith in FWP are not seeing the whole picture. They have Staley and Haynes and did draft Humes another big Pittsburgh type RB.

 

The Steelers are a power running team. Parker will get carries, but will likely be pulled at the goal-line and may find himself on the sideline during the second half when the Steelers have the lead and Staley and Haynes grind the ball.

 

I don't think anyone missed the Staley factor. It was strongly reinforced in the NFL draft when Pittsburgh didn't even sniff at Lendale White.

 

Haynes fills the 3rd down role nicely. Staley will likely find himself in goal line/short yardage duty. FWP will be the yardage/big play back. Easily a 3 headed monster RBBC. Biggest change will happen when Staley (whomever) gets injured at some point. Another guy will have to step into the role.

[Da Bomb 0]

im sorry, but how did curtis martin and corey dillon both go before 4.4? and how did this supposed drafter pass up on kevin jones when he slid all the way to 3.9?

 

i voted for willie parker, since he seems to be making pretty crappy decisions thus far, so im guessing he'll take the guy with "upside" when dunn is available, and he already IS parkers upside.

[football_scooter 0]

im sorry, but how did curtis martin and corey dillon both go before 4.4? and how did this supposed drafter pass up on kevin jones when he slid all the way to 3.9?

 

i voted for willie parker, since he seems to be making pretty crappy decisions thus far, so im guessing he'll take the guy with "upside" when dunn is available, and he already IS parkers upside.

 

lol

 

thanks for the reality check...that's fine. It's a hypothetical - maybe it's a league made up of former KJones owners from 2005.

 

but since it is just a hypothetical to get you to this point, there ya go. I went by ADP in most cases. Run with it dude.

[TD Ryan2 316]

You guys are focken nuts...FWP stunk last year other than a few big games.

 

The smurf Dunn has proven over time that he is a capable back...albeit one that does not put up great numbers year after year, but he is consistent.

 

 

yeah, I don't quite share your fervor but I do agree in general and did vote for Dunn.

 

I'd be curious to see how the Crank Scores of these 2 guys compare?

The idea of Dunn being more proven, more consistent, and a better pass catcher are the reasons I favor him (I believe his pass catching ability is what allows him to pad the numbers and be consistent).

[wizbang 10]

FWP has 5 100 yard games in his career and when it counted most (Superbowl run...he SUCKED)

47 rushes....132 yards (whopping 2.8 avg) in 3 playoff games

 

Let's take a look a little deeper into FWP 100 yard games.

Week 1....vs TENN....22nd ranked run D

Week 2....at HOU...WORST RUN D IN NFL LAST YEAR

Week 7....at CIN.... 20th in league...but I'll give it to him...division foe on the road

Week 16...at CLEV....30th ranked run D

Week 17....vs DET....23rd ranked run D

 

So, in a nutshell he STUNK it up for the better part of last season but all you FWP ball lickers remmeber games 1 & 2 & 16 & 17.

 

In his 5 "big" games, he went 108-668 (6.18 avg)

In the other 14 games.....196-666 (3.4 avg)...did I just add that right...hang tight....YES I DID ...he is far WORSE than I thought.

 

So many of you guys are fooled by the most over-rated back in the game...he is a home run threat with dynamite speed...when he gets a monster hole, but other than that....HE STINKS

 

Don't be the fool that drafts him...he won't be the starter there by week 4.....bank it

 

Conversely, Warrick Dunn also had 5 big 100 yard games

 

Week 1 v. PHI (#21 in the NFL runD)

Week 4 v. Min (#19 in the NFL runD)

Week 6 v. NO (#27 in the NFL runD)

Week 7 v. NYJ (#29 in the NFL runD)

Week 12 v. Det (#24 in the NFL runD)

 

In his 5 "big" games, he went 102-614 (6.02 avg)

In the other 11 games.....178-802 (4.5 avg)

 

Yes, Dunn was better in his non-big games but not nearly as much as your distorted analysis depicts it to be. There are three factors that give legitimate reason to believe that Parker could overtake Dunn in FFL. 1. Bettis is gone so Parker can reasonably be expected to get a few extra carries per game, perhaps even inside the 20. 2. Parker's receiving stats went up consistently throughout the season (6 in the first 8, 12 in the last 7 and 10 in 4 playoff games). 3. Parker is 25 while Dunn is 31, an age where RBs have statistically been shown to begin their rapid decline.

 

Like I said previously, I completely understand anyone taking Dunn over Parker but it IS a close call when you look at the numbers objectively. In my league Dunn averaged 2 more points per week than Parker in 2005. Could the reasons I listed above make up that distance? Well, maybe. It's at least reasonable.

 

For some reason, people just don't like Willie Parker and tend to manipulate his stats in comparison to other NFL RBs and previous Pittsburgh RBs to make their points. It's an odd phenomenon.

[Jeremy 0]

FWP = Napoleon Kaufman. I'll take the proven commodity here: Dunn.

[football_scooter 0]

For some reason, people just don't like Willie Parker and tend to manipulate his stats in comparison to other NFL RBs and previous Pittsburgh RBs to make their points. It's an odd phenomenon.

 

Not me - I just think Staley and Haynes will be playing a far greater role in PIT than TJ Duckett in ATL.

[wizbang 10]

Not me - I just think Staley and Haynes will be playing a far greater role in PIT than TJ Duckett in ATL.

 

and that is perfectly reasonable which is why this makes for a good "On the Clock" poll. It's when people start dismissing a player's best games and using that to declare that said player sucks that someone has to call BS.

[Lionsjunkie 1]

Conversely, Warrick Dunn also had 5 big 100 yard games

 

Week 1 v. PHI (#21 in the NFL runD)

Week 4 v. Min (#19 in the NFL runD)

Week 6 v. NO (#27 in the NFL runD)

Week 7 v. NYJ (#29 in the NFL runD)

Week 12 v. Det (#24 in the NFL runD)

 

In his 5 "big" games, he went 102-614 (6.02 avg)

In the other 11 games.....178-802 (4.5 avg)

 

Yes, Dunn was better in his non-big games but not nearly as much as your distorted analysis depicts it to be. There are three factors that give legitimate reason to believe that Parker could overtake Dunn in FFL. 1. Bettis is gone so Parker can reasonably be expected to get a few extra carries per game, perhaps even inside the 20. 2. Parker's receiving stats went up consistently throughout the season (6 in the first 8, 12 in the last 7 and 10 in 4 playoff games). 3. Parker is 25 while Dunn is 31, an age where RBs have statistically been shown to begin their rapid decline.

 

Like I said previously, I completely understand anyone taking Dunn over Parker but it IS a close call when you look at the numbers objectively. In my league Dunn averaged 2 more points per week than Parker in 2005. Could the reasons I listed above make up that distance? Well, maybe. It's at least reasonable.

 

For some reason, people just don't like Willie Parker and tend to manipulate his stats in comparison to other NFL RBs and previous Pittsburgh RBs to make their points. It's an odd phenomenon.

 

I'm glad somebody else took the time to compare Dunn in his games last season. In all honesty, I will NEVER draft FWP and would only draft Dunn if he really fell. I have never in 6-7 years have had DUnn on my team and will probably not start now.

 

Dunn's averages are still nice (4.5 ypc) in his other games where FWP drops significantly...especially getting worse in the PLAYOFFS where much better D's are playing. How do you explain his horrible playoffs other than he is average AT BEST....

[wizbang 10]

I'm glad somebody else took the time to compare Dunn in his games last season. In all honesty, I will NEVER draft FWP and would only draft Dunn if he really fell. I have never in 6-7 years have had DUnn on my team and will probably not start now.

 

Dunn's averages are still nice (4.5 ypc) in his other games where FWP drops significantly...especially getting worse in the PLAYOFFS where much better D's are playing. How do you explain his horrible playoffs other than he is average AT BEST....

 

My main point is that outside of the 5-7 elite RBs, you have to expect numbers to drop against the better defenses. Denver and Seattle were both in the top 5 in rush defense and Indy was 16th. I personally expect FWPs numbers to drop so I wasn't surprised. 1360 yards equates to an average of 80 yards/game. That is pretty good for most RBs but only equates to 80 yards per game. With 5 games of 100+ any RB is going to have a good number of 50-60 yard games. Despite what most believe that is NORMAL for all but a select few RBs. Those RBs all go in the first round. We're talking early fourth. Don't draft FWP there and expect 100 and a score every game. Get what you pay for but the same goes for Dunn (which is the point of this thread).

 

An average back (Samkon Gado) in the right situation can still produce impressive numbers. Pitts is a pretty good situation.