***Official NFL Week 9 Betting Thread***

[swirvenirvin 25]

NFL - Week 9

 

Sunday, Nov. 5

 

ST. LOUIS 2 Kansas City

 

BALTIMORE 3 Cincinnati

 

N.Y. GIANTS 13 Houston

 

JACKSONVILLE 10 Tennessee

 

Dallas 3 WASHINGTON

 

BUFFALO 3½ Green Bay

 

New Orleans 1 TAMPA BAY

 

Atlanta 4½ DETROIT

 

CHICAGO 13 Miami

 

Minnesota 5 SAN FRANCISCO

 

SAN DIEGO 12½ Cleveland

 

PITTSBURGH 2½ Denver

 

NEW ENGLAND 3 Indianapolis

 

Monday, Nov. 6

 

SEATTLE 7½ Oakland

[swirvenirvin 25]

Minnesota is going to rebound after getting their ass kicked last week..

 

Take Minny giving 5

 

Really dont undersatnd the Denver game, everyone is going to be picking Denver here

[GobbleDog 919]

I did really well picking NFL games last week ATS. Picking upsets correctly, got my gauranteed-can't-miss game of the week, etc... But this week - I just don't feel as confident about any of these games.

 

The only one that jumps out at me is IND +3. Anytime you can get the Peyton Manning Show plus a field goal, you take it and don't over-analyze.

[edjr 6,384]

Minnesota is going to rebound after getting their ass kicked last week..

 

Take Minny giving 5

 

Really dont undersatnd the Denver game, everyone is going to be picking Denver here

 

you know what happens when everyone takes one team? it just happens to go the other way.

 

Remember KC being favored against Pitt earlier in the year?

 

I like Pitt to turn it around at home.

 

I did really well picking NFL games last week ATS. Picking upsets correctly, got my gauranteed-can't-miss game of the week, etc... But this week - I just don't feel as confident about any of these games.

 

The only one that jumps out at me is IND +3. Anytime you can get the Peyton Manning Show plus a field goal, you take it and don't over-analyze.

 

The same Peyton Manning show that beat the Titans 14 to 13 at home?

[GobbleDog 919]

The same Peyton Manning show that beat the Titans 14 to 13 at home?

 

Yes. It's the same Peyton Manning show that hung 34 points on DEN - in DEN. The same one that's currently 7-0 and has only lost 2 regular season games over the past 2 seasons (both of which were meaningless end of the season games).

[PriestAlone 0]

Yes. It's the same Peyton Manning show that hung 34 points on DEN - in DEN. The same one that's currently 7-0 and has only lost 2 regular season games over the past 2 seasons (both of which were meaningless end of the season games).

 

Actually, those are different Mannings.

 

If it stays at 3 or goes up, I'll take the dog. I can't imagine this game not being extremely close.

[Ambroc 0]

Give me GREEN BAY and the 3 1/2.

 

This year the Packers are a bad team feasting on terrible teams. Although the Pack give up oodles of yards in the air (270.3/g!!!), they are playing a team w/ a quarterback -Lman- who does not seem to have the ability to take advantage (27th ranked pass offense.) And despite the terrible pass defense on a yardage basis, the Pack have 7 INT and 22 Sacks -- much of that against Joey Harrington, a Losman clone.

 

The Bills are searching for an identity (and a quarterback.); the Packers are gaining confidence.

 

It's hard to know if the Packers can really stop the run (94.9/g) because teams prefer to toss the ball over their heads. (Side note: For whatever reasons, they keep LB AJ Hawk in dime package situations, leaving him to cover small fast wrs. Dedication to stop the run?) That said, if they game plan to stop McGahee and let Losman throw interceptions, I see a close game.

 

I say it's 50/50 the Packers win this one. If I could bet 1000 times, the 3 1/2 points would come in handy.

 

Final score: Packers 17, Bills 14. As you can see, I love 3 1/2. I would walk away from 2 1/2 or lower.

[PriestAlone 0]

Final score: Packers 17, Bills 14. As you can see, I love 3 1/2. I would walk away from 2 1/2 or lower.

 

What does the 3 1/2 have to do with the Packers winning by 3? They're a dog.

[GobbleDog 919]

Actually, those are different Mannings.

 

By "different" I assume you mean last season vs this season. Nope, it's the same dude with the same team minus Edgerrin James. Starting out 7-0 just like last season. And putting up phenomenal stats, just like last season.

[Ambroc 0]

What does the 3 1/2 have to do with the Packers winning by 3? They're a dog.

 

 

My predicted score is just that. Clearly, I'd like Green Bay to be handed 3 1/2 points instead of 2 1/2. Say, for example, the actual score in what I think will be a close game is Bills 17, Packers 14. I want the extra point.

 

I have no crystal ball, I just play the percentages. If I could have the Bills and Packers play a million times under the same circumstances, I think I'd make a ton of money betting the Packers this week. That said, they Pack could lose 34-10.

 

If I'm going to lay down a one time $1000 with all the uncertainty involved, I want 3 1/2, not less.

 

 

Let me know your best pick.

[PriestAlone 0]

By "different" I assume you mean last season vs this season. Nope, it's the same dude with the same team minus Edgerrin James. Starting out 7-0 just like last season. And putting up phenomenal stats, just like last season.

 

I think the point originally made is that Manning hasn't been that brilliant every game. Actually, not even close. This is not a knock on him in general, it just means he was out of his mind (even by his standards) against Denver. Some people are calling it the best game he's ever played (which also speaks to his postseason history). The Manning who led the Colts to 14 total points against the Titans is not the same Manning from this past Sunday, so to speak. Ditto Brady against the Broncos compared to Brady on Monday night.

 

My predicted score is just that. Clearly, I'd like Green Bay to be handed 3 1/2 points instead of 2 1/2. Say, for example, the actual score in what I think will be a close game is Bills 17, Packers 14. I want the extra point.

 

I have no crystal ball, I just play the percentages. If I could have the Bills and Packers play a million times under the same circumstances, I think I'd make a ton of money betting the Packers this week. That said, they Pack could lose 34-10.

 

If I'm going to lay down a one time $1000 with all the uncertainty involved, I want 3 1/2, not less.

Let me know your best pick.

 

Guess I was just confused, as you predicted a score then said you wouldn't play the game if the line moved a point the wrong way, even though that had no bearing on your predicted score.

 

I don't have a crystal ball either. I have a dwindling bank account.

 

I like the Bears if it stays under two touchdowns, but I'll play it anyway.

[R8dr Fan 87 0]

Does this atlanta line -4.5 stick out at anyone? Im thinking ATL lays a whooping on DET

[swirvenirvin 25]

Does this atlanta line -4.5 stick out at anyone? Im thinking ATL lays a whooping on DET

 

 

who knows with detroit at home

 

 

having said that a lot of these seemed really easy for me

 

at leats 8 of them seemed like locks I'm sure ill suck it up

[Ambroc 0]

Does this atlanta line -4.5 stick out at anyone? Im thinking ATL lays a whooping on DET

 

 

Seems too good to be true. Will the Detroit Defense be the force that shut down SEA or will they be the swiss cheese the Packers ate up? I believe the later to be true.

 

Problem is...will ATL's defense show up on the road?

 

 

I'm with you. I'll give 4 1/2 and take ATL.

 

 

I don't have a crystal ball either. I have a dwindling bank account.

 

I like the Bears if it stays under two touchdowns, but I'll play it anyway.

 

I agree with you. The worry that the Dolphins Defense will shut down CHI seems far-fetched after what Green Bay did to them. Joey Harrington is a turnover machine. If this was a college game the spread would be 20.

[VaTerp 0]

bump

[EAwer 1]

dont bet against the Lions this week. I wouldnt bet on them either, but i suggest you stay away. Id be shcoked if ATL wins by more than 7, and they could easily win by 3, or even lose by 3. it will be a good shootout.

[$epphori$ 118]

I did horrible last week. So looking to bounce backin week 9.

 

 

 

ST. LOUIS -2 ($50)

 

+13 Houston ($50)

 

BUFFALO -3½ ($100)

 

+1 TAMPA BAY ($100)

 

+4½ DETROIT ($100)

 

+13 Miami ($50)

 

SAN DIEGO -12½ ($50)

 

+2½ Denver ($100)

 

NEW ENGLAND -3 ($100)

 

+7½ Oakland ($50)

 

[PriestAlone 0]

I did horrible last week. So looking to bounce backin week 9.

ST. LOUIS -2 ($50)

 

+13 Houston ($50)

 

BUFFALO -3½ ($100)

 

+1 TAMPA BAY ($100)

 

+4½ DETROIT ($100)

 

+13 Miami ($50)

 

SAN DIEGO -12½ ($50)

 

+2½ Denver ($100)

 

NEW ENGLAND -3 ($100)

 

+7½ Oakland ($50)

 

 

We think alike. Which explains why I lost my a*s last week, too.

[GobbleDog 919]

I did horrible last week. So looking to bounce backin week 9.

 

Prepare for another horrible week.

 

ST. LOUIS -2 ($50) - WIN. Bulger and Holt are hitting mid-season stride.

 

+13 Houston ($50) - LOSS. The Giants at home... against the lowely Texans = blowout.

 

BUFFALO -3½ ($100) - LOSS. The Pack is Back. If Buffalo wins, it won't be by more than a field goal.

 

+1 TAMPA BAY ($100) - LOSS. Tampa's offense is a joke. NO's offense is the real deal.

 

+4½ DETROIT ($100) - LOSS. Vick is good. Vick with passing confidence is downright scary.

 

+13 Miami ($50) - WIN. MIA's worst loss this season was only by 11 points. And Rex ain't as good as he thinks.

 

SAN DIEGO -12½ ($50) - WIN. Always bet against CLE. Always.

 

+2½ Denver ($100) - WIN. PIT's offense thought it had problems last week, wait til they meet DEN's D.

 

NEW ENGLAND -3 ($100) - LOSS. Never bet against Peyton Manning, especially when the Colts are getting points.

 

+7½ Oakland ($50) - LOSS. The worst team in the league, on the road, against last year's NFC champs. Blowout.

 

 

Better luck next week.

[vlade117 0]

Pitt

NE

TB

 

3 team parlay

[$epphori$ 118]

Prepare for another horrible week.

 

ST. LOUIS -2 ($50) - WIN. Bulger and Holt are hitting mid-season stride.

 

+13 Houston ($50) - LOSS. The Giants at home... against the lowely Texans = blowout.

 

BUFFALO -3½ ($100) - LOSS. The Pack is Back. If Buffalo wins, it won't be by more than a field goal.

 

+1 TAMPA BAY ($100) - LOSS. Tampa's offense is a joke. NO's offense is the real deal.

 

+4½ DETROIT ($100) - LOSS. Vick is good. Vick with passing confidence is downright scary.

 

+13 Miami ($50) - WIN. MIA's worst loss this season was only by 11 points. And Rex ain't as good as he thinks.

 

SAN DIEGO -12½ ($50) - WIN. Always bet against CLE. Always.

 

+2½ Denver ($100) - WIN. PIT's offense thought it had problems last week, wait til they meet DEN's D.

 

NEW ENGLAND -3 ($100) - LOSS. Never bet against Peyton Manning, especially when the Colts are getting points.

 

+7½ Oakland ($50) - LOSS. The worst team in the league, on the road, against last year's NFC champs. Blowout.

Better luck next week.

 

 

What is up with you gobblekok? You have already marked down the games I will win and loose. LMAO The only posts by you are ones of you picking on other posters. We are not worthy. Indy has not looked to spectacular this year at times. Like the other poster said,Houston hung with them. Indy's defense sux. You need to stop gobbleing on Mannings C()CK. The pack is back???? your crazy...Buffalo coming off a bye,,,that is a good pick....As far as San Diego goes,,ohh yeah I was right on that, well soYOU say I will,, But never bet on Cleveland,,,well I tookem last week andWON..Go check last weeks thread. Vick has been good the last few weeks, actually he's been great, not this week...again another team coming off a bye will be the side to pick. NYG are playing great, but their pass defence sux' Houston can throw the ball pretty good, Andoohhh yeah they hung with INdy 14-13 weeks ago. You can only pick one game this week, MY PAts loosing to Indyyou have the balls to dog my picks but no balls to riskany more.

[GobbleDog 919]

What is up with you gobblekok?

 

Just figured you wanted some feedback. Sorry. I won't comment on your picks anymore.

[$epphori$ 118]

Just figured you wanted some feedback. Sorry. I won't comment on your picks anymore.

 

 

Well you probably can tel lI am pissed over last weeks losses. I apologize for dogging you a bit. But you did dog my picks

 

So anyways...my picks are going to put me in the +$ this week. I'll come looking for you on Monday so you can give me a pat on the back.

 

 

I am an old school gambler, and I used to be a regular on this site as Sepphoris, but I lost my password.

So I am not tagged a geek no more.

 

So to those who remember me...Hello long time no read...to those who I have not met...Hello, listen you canlearn a lot from a dummy.

[swirvenirvin 25]

Go Favorites

 

 

6 Point Teaser (2 Teams) 11/03/06 16:21 ET

Result: Pending

Falcons(Atlanta)

Lions(Detroit) 11/05/06 (13:05 ET)

Falcons(Atlanta) +0.5 (-105)

 

Vikings(Minnesota)

49ers(SanFrancisco) 11/05/06 (16:10 ET)

Vikings(Minnesota) +1 (-105)

 

 

Straight Wager 11/03/06 16:16 ET

Result: Pending

Bengals(Cincinnati)

Ravens(Baltimore) 11/05/06 (13:05 ET)

Bengals(Cincinnati) +145

 

 

 

10 Point Teaser (3 Teams) 11/03/06 16:14 ET

Result: Pending

Browns(Cleveland)

Chargers(SanDiego) 11/05/06 (16:20 ET)

Chargers(SanDiego) -2.5 (-105)

 

Dolphins(Miami)

Bears(Chicago) 11/05/06 (13:05 ET)

Bears(Chicago) -3.5 (-115)

 

Texans(Houston)

Giants(NewYork) 11/05/06 (13:05 ET)

Giants(NewYork) -3 (-105

[GiantsRule 0]

Fantastic college football day and as usual, a horrendous evening pressing plays I had no right taking. Eccch.

 

Not much that looks good, even from the props front. Here's my early card (may add a few halftime plays if something jumps out at me):

 

Chiefs-Rams Over 47.5

 

Willis McGahee Over 12.5 rushing yards more than Ahman Green (+160)

 

Instant Gratification Early Game First Half Unders parlay (hit it last week so I'm not expecting miracles):

 

Titans-Jags Under 18.5

Cowboys-Redskins Under 21.5 (-120)

Texans-G-MEN Under 21.5

 

I'll see what Ditka/Yer Mom have in mind, but this should be it.

 

Good luck to all!

[thekris 0]

My picks were awful last week so I'm very glad I accidently slept til 2:30pm and missed the chance to call in my 1 right and 4 wrong picks. Too many look too good to be true but here's my picks for anyone that cares:

 

Cin +3 - I know Baltimore's leading the division but I really think Cincinnati's gonna take the AFC North when it's all done. See them beating Baltimore straight up but like the insurance of 3 pts.

 

Dal -3 - I've been on the Romo bandwagon since I picked him up in week 3 for a backup knowing that he'd be starting over Bledsoe soon enough. Sure he's new but I think the O-line is more motivated when he's in there and he gets the ball to T.O. and they should beat Wash by more than a FG.

 

N.O. -1.5 - Tampa Bay is garbage

 

Atl -6 - Atlanta's a bit unpredictable and it'll be hard for Michael Vick to stay on pace with how great he's done the past 2 weeks but I still see them beating Detroit by at least a TD.

 

Minn -5.5 - They're not as bad as I thought they'd be and I think it's the line's pretty good considering they're playing S.F. Not totally confident in this pick though.

 

Den +2.5 - I've been going crazy the past few hours (bored at work) trying to understand why Pitt is favored here. Ben R is starting which I think is a mistake. He can't seem to throw lately and I think Denver's D will shut down Willie Parker very easily. Last week Pitt lost to the worst of the AFC West and now they're going against the best in AFC West. I realize that they're playing in Pitt and I know it's tough to think that Pitt will lose 3 games in a row but I just can't see them beating Denver here. But there's a reason the line is the way it is. Line's aren't set for bookies to lose their a$$es and if something's too good to be true, it usually is. But I'll learn my lesson tonight I guess if Pitt ends up winning it.

 

Indy +3 - I know Manning's record facing Brady is pretty rough but I just don't see Indy's first loss coming here. I think they'll lose to a team that they underestimate, like almost losing to Tenn earlier this season, not a team they've been gearing up for. Not too confident here either but if I had to make a move, I'll take the points.

 

Oak/Sea over 37. I have Seattle's D in fantasy and they kill me every week by letting their opponent score a ton whether they win or lose. I know Hassleback and Alexander aren't there but I still see them going over 37.

 

There's my picks if anyone cares. I honestly don't know my W-L for the season but I think I'm about 50%. Feel free to critique my thoughts. I could use the advice before I call these in.

[art schlichter's bookie 0]

Gents:

 

UP and down day in college.

 

Back at em today with the Falcons, Bengals and Chargers so far. Like SD OVER too.

 

Like NE late.

 

Gl to all

[phillybear 366]

Overall College YTD: 198-167-4; +37.07 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 94-69; +48.72 units

CFL: 19-13; +11.95 units

Overall NBA: 11-8-1; +6.85 units

Subset: NBA 2 unit plays or higher: 2-0; +5.0 units

NHL: 2-1; -.6 units

NFL (Reset, last two weeks): 17-12-1; +6.65 units

 

All for 1 unit unless indicated otherwise.

 

NFL Early

 

St Louis (-2.5) for 2 units LOSER

Cincinnati (Moneyline@+150) for 2 units LOSER

Houston (+13) WINNER

Tennessee (+9.5) LOSER

Washington (+3)@Even WINNER

Green Bay (+3)@+105 LOSER

New Orleans (-1) for 2 units WINNER

Atlanta (-5) LOSER

Miami (+13.5) WINNER

 

Sunday Later

 

San Francisco (+4.5) for 2 units WINNER

Pittsburgh (-3)@-105 for 2 units LOSER

 

Sunday Night

 

New England (-3)@-115 for 2 units

 

CFL

 

Toronto (-3.5) for 2 units WINNER

Saskatchewan (+6.5) for 2 units WINNER

 

Good luck to all.

[swirvenirvin 25]

Cincy moneyline seems like a popular pick for us

[BREWSTER_MIL 0]

here's my 4 teamer

 

St. Louis -2

Baltimore -3

Green Bay +3.5

Indy +3

 

GL and good betting

[JT 137]

Does this atlanta line -4.5 stick out at anyone? Im thinking ATL lays a whooping on DET

 

Scary game. Detroit is middle of the pack defending the ru8n, the Falcons bread & butter. Atlanta's pass defense is awful (Detroit's not much better).

 

Guess I'm still not completely sold on the ability of Atlanta's passing game to carry them to victory if they can't run the ball. If this game were to deviate from the spread much, I'd be more inclined to look for an outright Detroit win than a Falcon rout.

[art schlichter's bookie 0]

I watched the ATL game last week and Michael Vick is throwing the ball really well.

 

I know it sounds crazy.

[JT 137]

NYG are playing great, but their pass defence sux' Houston can throw the ball pretty good, Andoohhh yeah they hung with INdy 14-13 weeks ago.

 

Houston lost to Indy by around 20 points. Tennessee played them to a 14-13 final.

[Oredigger 0]

Didn't do too well yesterday - down 5 units.

 

Here is what I am going with today. I see I may be against the majority on Den and Ind - oops

 

Denver (ML +120 ) for 2 units

St Louis -2 for 2 units

St Louis over 48 for 2 units

Cin (ML +140) 2 units

Ind +3 for 1 unit

 

Parlay

NO/TB ov 38.5

GB/Buf ov 40.5 for 1 unit (pays 3.6 units)

 

Parlay

GB +3

Wash +3

NO +1 for 1 unit (pays 7.7 units)

 

Good luck everyone!!

[GiantsRule 0]

Didn't do too well yesterday - down 5 units.

 

Here is what I am going with today. I see I may be against the majority on Den and Ind - oops

 

Denver (ML +120 ) for 2 units

St Louis -2 for 2 units

St Louis over 48 for 2 units

Cin (ML +140) 2 units

Ind +3 for 1 unit

 

Parlay

NO/TB ov 38.5

GB/Buf ov 40.5 for 1 unit (pays 3.6 units)

 

Parlay

GB +3

Wash +3

NO +1 for 1 unit (pays 7.7 units)

 

Good luck everyone!!

 

I think your parlay payouts might be off. 2-teamers are 2.6 to 1 odds and parlays are 5.5 to 1 or 6 to 1 odds. Are you including your original bet as part of the payout?

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

Early Picks Week 9:

KC+2.5 ( Larry Johnson will be hard to contain. I'll take Johnson over Holt.)

Cin +3( But Charles Robinson on yahoo locks says Ravens in a blowout. I think Cin is due, so gut pick.)

Houston +13 ( Andre, Daniels, and Lundy should put up some points)

Titans +9.5 (Jags aren't sure which quarterback will go.)

Skins +3 (2 weeks to prepare for a home field battle with their biggest rival.)

Buf -3.5 (Ambroc gave good reasons and Ahman found his stride, but Woodson is hurt and no backups.)

TB -1 (Home field and Cadilac should run fairly well here.)

Det +5 ( 2 weeks preparation to heal and prepare with home field against a team off emotional win.)

Miami +13.5 ( I kind of like Chambers over Tillman here. Miami had 2 weeks to find a game plan. )

 

later games:

Min -5 ( I agree with earlier analysis in thread by Swirven Irven. )

Chargers -12.5 ( Charlie Frye hurt in practice? It doesn't matter, Tomlinson is too much to contain.)

Broncos +3 ( Steelers looked bad. Show me they aren't.)

 

 

Late Sunday game:

 

Still comparing this thread notes to yahoo experts to others to my own. Also looking for others to post analysis on this game. I know Rocket said he likes NE , but that was over a week ago. I'll try to weigh it all out and come up with a pick.

 

All picks one unit unless otherwise noted.

[GobbleDog 919]

I think your parlay payouts might be off. 2-teamers are 2.6 to 1 odds

 

Yep. If he's getting 3.6 to 1 odds on two team parlays, I'm using the wrong sportsbook.

[Oredigger 0]

I think your parlay payouts might be off. 2-teamers are 2.6 to 1 odds and parlays are 5.5 to 1 or 6 to 1 odds. Are you including your original bet as part of the payout?

 

Yes, you are right, good catch. I goofed and was just reading the "collect" column from my submitted bets.

 

The 2 teamer is 2.6 and the 3 teamer is 6.7 becuase Wash +3 was +110

 

Selection Price

New Orleans at Tampa Bay

New Orleans + 1.0 -115

Green Bay at Buffalo

Green Bay + 3.0 -105

Dallas at Washington

Washington + 3.0 +110

Bet Type: selections Bet Price: +667

 

thanks for noticing! Good luck to you today

[GiantsRule 0]

Yes, you are right, good catch. I goofed and was just reading the "collect" column from my submitted bets.

 

The 2 teamer is 2.6 and the 3 teamer is 6.7 becuase Wash +3 was +110

 

Selection Price

New Orleans at Tampa Bay

New Orleans + 1.0 -115

Green Bay at Buffalo

Green Bay + 3.0 -105

Dallas at Washington

Washington + 3.0 +110

Bet Type: selections Bet Price: +667

 

thanks for noticing! Good luck to you today

 

No problem. It's a pet peeve of mine when sportsbooks do that (Sports Interaction and Dimeline are key offenders). Bettors want to know what they will make if they win; I'd like to think that in a game of numbers we could figure out how much we get back if we add our winnings to our original bet.

[Oredigger 0]

No problem. It's a pet peeve of mine when sportsbooks do that (Sports Interaction and Dimeline are key offenders). Bettors want to know what they will make if they win; I'd like to think that in a game of numbers we could figure out how much we get back if we add our winnings to our original bet.

 

Yeah, it bugs me too. I usually am on top of it but still need my coffee this morning. You guessed it right again, these bets are at Sports Interaction.