**Round Nine/Ten Draft Commentary**

[JScott 20]

Email sent to FK

 

There is a lot of love in the mock today

Speaking of love, isn't it about time you took that certain DST

[RLLD 3,928]

 

 

What are my chances if you talky-talk about it

[JScott 20]

What are my chances if you talky-talk about it

[Captain Lou 0]

Hey guys. I see great progress is being made. Better than two thirds complete in about four days.

Thanks once again Bomb. You landed two of my guys in what appers to be the correct order. How could anyone not like Kevin Jones as a number 3/4 tailback who could post 1/2 numbers any given week. The re-hab was a concern of mine in putting together my rankings as well as Tatum Bell. I go on record stating

that Kevin Jones is a better running back and has plenty of time to heal for my team.

 

I think many are underestimating Kevin Curtis this year. He along with Hackett (whom I wanted in the 8th)

are my sleepers and I expect solid fantasy numbers from them.I think both guys are in systems that can really exploit their speed and talents. Hackett has picked up where he left off and catching everything in sight at mini camp, and I believe that Curtis will be a huge downfield threat for McNabb each and everytime he leaves the pocket. He also has great speed after the catch. He is the perfect broken play weapon as well.

As a number 3/4, he should produce large numbers on any given week. I am really pleased with Kevin Jones and Kevin Curtis landing at my 8th and 9th round selections and I really could not have done any of this without my friend DaBomb. I do not feel too guilty about asking him to draft because deep down inside he really really loves this stuff.

[ICEMAN 41]

Is Derrick Mason still alive?

 

[Da Bomb 0]

jscott, i get your stats argument. actually thats about the same argument i would make in return. i just think theres a much higher likelihood of injury to lt2, based on pretty strong statistical arguments made by nan regarding RBs over the 400 touch mark. im not saying injury is inevitable but you seem to make it a severely small possibility. i also think turner's upshot is extremely high with his talent, OL, and system if he got a shot, whereas with jordan and his good ole 3.8 and a cloud of dust, even if he somehow got a whole slew of carries (and his career high is 272), i dont see a huge potential.

 

if i go by 10s.... heres about how i would rank it.

chance of turner full load for significant length = 3/10

potential performance of turner = 8/10

chance of jordan full load for significant length = 5/10

potential performane of jordan = 5/10

 

that comes out to almost exactly even of course.

 

however, i would argue that at this point in the draft (and especially in a best ball format with no later pickups or trades allowed), that potential is the weightier factor. my formula in my head, if i think about it, probably looks more like...

 

value = (chance of full load) x (potential performance) ^2

 

i value potential much much more this late, especially in this performance.

 

i *might* have been a math major

[RLLD 3,928]

 

i *might* have been a math major

 

Wow, what branch of the service were you in

[Da Bomb 0]

honestly no idea what that means.

 

also, ted just had an AMAZING turn at the 9/10 spot. mike bell and matt jones? wow, i wouldve guessed that would be a pretty nice 7/8 turn, and i wouldnt have been shocked to see it as a 6/7 turn. great value on both of those picks. he had travis henry too, didnt he?

[remote controller 143]

remote wanted me to also remind Ray that he's an @ss for taking Foster

I have been miss quoted.......er.......uh.....at least taken out of context. I clearly told JScott to tell Ray he was a pr!ck for grabbing Foster.

[remote controller 143]

Thanks for the help today JScott, and we'd love to go to Vegas with you and the Mrs.!! It's so nice of you to make such a generous offer.

[Captain Lou 0]

Has anyone seen Dan tonight? I would love to type a players name or two.

 

Hey Bomb, could you please resend your last e mail? I think I trashed everything at Yahoo by accident and it is gone forever.Thanks.

[Da Bomb 0]

Hey Bomb, could you please resend your last e mail? I think I trashed everything at Yahoo by accident and it is gone forever.Thanks.

 

done.

[JScott 20]

Thanks for the help today JScott, and we'd love to go to Vegas with you and the Mrs.!! It's so nice of you to make such a generous offer.

Sure, we could use some babysitters. You don't mind, right

[remote controller 143]

Sure, we could use some babysitters. You don't mind, right

As long as you're payin'!

[remote controller 143]

I really like what Ray, J, and Clash have done with their last two picks. I've read the whole Jordan/Turner thing and can see to completely different styles that accomplish stability. Jordan offers a chance for more upside, if he steps up and LT stays healthy. Turner becomes a Burner if LT goes down, but you only stay even with a slight dip. I think the starter trumps the backup, unless you are a handcuff guy. All this being said, and being the conservative drafter I am, I would have covered my investment with Turner. How's that for straddling the fence. Ray really beefed up his rb's with Morency and Foster. Great picks for his squad. Clash landed an up and coming QB, and a potential game breaker in Turner.

 

This is not to say tht there were bad picks made. I just thought these 6 picks stood out.

[Captain Lou 0]

done.

 

 

Thanks. I will shoot an e mail to you shortly.

[Fumbleweed 485]

honestly no idea what that means.

 

also, ted just had an AMAZING turn at the 9/10 spot. mike bell and matt jones? wow, i wouldve guessed that would be a pretty nice 7/8 turn, and i wouldnt have been shocked to see it as a 6/7 turn. great value on both of those picks. he had travis henry too, didnt he?

 

No, I have Henry. I was going to get Bell at 10.02.....gambled just a bit and ted burned me.

 

Here I got on to JScott for not grabbing Turner and then I get cute and miss out on Bell as my handcuff. I think I'll just shut up and eat some humble pie.

[Captain Lou 0]

No, I have Henry. I was going to get Bell at 10.02.....gambled just a bit and ted burned me.

 

Here I got on to JScott for not grabbing Turner and then I get cute and miss out on Bell as my handcuff. I think I'll just shut up and eat some humble pie.

 

 

I do that all of the time.

[gratefulted 14]

ted burned me.

 

 

Ha! Nothing personal, I'd much rather have Betts but I got burned too.

 

Its a dog eat dog world out there.

[JScott 20]

jscott, i get your stats argument. actually thats about the same argument i would make in return. i just think theres a much higher likelihood of injury to lt2, based on pretty strong statistical arguments made by nan regarding RBs over the 400 touch mark. im not saying injury is inevitable but you seem to make it a severely small possibility. i also think turner's upshot is extremely high with his talent, OL, and system if he got a shot, whereas with jordan and his good ole 3.8 and a cloud of dust, even if he somehow got a whole slew of carries (and his career high is 272), i dont see a huge potential.

 

if i go by 10s.... heres about how i would rank it.

chance of turner full load for significant length = 3/10

potential performance of turner = 8/10

chance of jordan full load for significant length = 5/10

potential performane of jordan = 5/10

 

that comes out to almost exactly even of course.

 

however, i would argue that at this point in the draft (and especially in a best ball format with no later pickups or trades allowed), that potential is the weightier factor. my formula in my head, if i think about it, probably looks more like...

 

value = (chance of full load) x (potential performance) ^2

 

i value potential much much more this late, especially in this performance.

 

i *might* have been a math major

Got to love statistics, we can pretty much bend them any way we want (I have a BA in Math too, plus a focus on statistical analysis in my graduate program )

 

As for my analysis, I should have clarified that I was just using the card scenario as an example, 1/52 roughly .05% is not the actual percentage I feel of the chance that LT2 gets hurt. IMO it's more like 15%. But in looking at your full load numbers, IMHO they are pretty stretched (Turner's 30% being high, and Jordan's 50% being low) and even with that you barely broke even. And I could balance the weighting you assigned by the loss in value for subsequent draft picks.

 

But regardless, I understand that there are 2 distinct points of view about this. And that each side can be backed with stats. But it still comes down to each of our own opinions about the values we assign to the potentials we discussed above.

 

I respect your opinion/insight on this and I hope I gave you enough of a counter-point just for something to think about.

[Dan 62]

Sorry guys. When the activity died out, I got going. There were other things that needed to be accomplished, and I had to roll. I'm back and ready to go and have the morning moving along, bright and early.

 

I'll tell you this . . . this has been something of a learning experience. I tend to use mock drafts to experiment, and so I tried a couple of things that were out of my norm, and out of my comfort zone. A couple of them worked satisfactorily, and a couple things did not go my way. Good information moving forward closer to the season and the real drafts that are quickly coming.

 

Thanks for having me along in this.

[RLLD 3,928]

The Horn pick was top notch for this spot. I was watching that cat fall, actually considered him a top choice at 10.07, but once Dan snatched him, it was time for me to secure the best defense in the land

[The Soloist 0]

The Horn pick was top notch for this spot. I was watching that cat fall, actually considered him a top choice at 10.07, but once Dan snatched him, it was time for me to secure the best defense in the land

 

 

HOMER PICK!

[RLLD 3,928]

HOMER PICK!

 

Don't hate....

[remote controller 143]

10th round kinda takes the gamble out of Vick.

[Da Bomb 0]

dont like taking a defense already in this almost no-scoring format. i know you might argue that youd take them here in a normal draft, but in a normal draft they would already be gone. i digress.

 

i absolutely love this pick for lou though. i know that will get a rise out of the jetdoc crowd, where i ripped on the vick pick. but its true that he was a definite top 5 player in this scoring last year. yeah with all the allegations it will make things interesting. maybe he misses some games, maybe a lot, and he is sitll an injury risk too. and hes also very spot, huge week one week, bum the next. but isnt that the definition of an awesome late pick in a best ball league? if vick is playing, you KNOW the huge weeks will come at least once a month. and with lou's other QB being brady, i can think of no qb in the league other than peyton who is as much of a sure thing to be out there healthy every week with at least 200/1. its a perfect match. im actually going to go out on a limb and say that if vick plays at least 10 games this year, lou just secured himself the #1 qb duo / points in the entire league imo. and with a late 10th!

[RLLD 3,928]

dont like taking a defense already in this almost no-scoring format. i know you might argue that youd take them here in a normal draft, but in a normal draft they would already be gone. i digress.

 

i absolutely love this pick for lou though. i know that will get a rise out of the jetdoc crowd, where i ripped on the vick pick. but its true that he was a definite top 5 player in this scoring last year. yeah with all the allegations it will make things interesting. maybe he misses some games, maybe a lot, and he is sitll an injury risk too. and hes also very spot, huge week one week, bum the next. but isnt that the definition of an awesome late pick in a best ball league? if vick is playing, you KNOW the huge weeks will come at least once a month. and with lou's other QB being brady, i can think of no qb in the league other than peyton who is as much of a sure thing to be out there healthy every week with at least 200/1. its a perfect match. im actually going to go out on a limb and say that if vick plays at least 10 games this year, lou just secured himself the #1 qb duo / points in the entire league imo. and with a late 10th!

 

You and I always differ on the value of the DEF. Last year in the IBL you tried to dissuade me from taking the Ravens D at about the same spot, and all they did was drop RB numbers for me each week.

 

In the case of forcing me to start a Def or a TE, I would like to reach up and get the best at those positions, primarily because the best in these two categories typically produces considerably better points the the 3rd, 4th or 5th entry. If you have Gates, and your competitor has Heap, you have a considerable leg up, by the same token if I hold the Ravens andyou come in with the Cowboys, I am already up by 10 points right there. ~ JMHO

 

I guess what I am saying is that perhaps you need to reconsider your defensive decision-making paradyne.

[Fumbleweed 485]

I think what he's saying is the scoring system for D/ST in this league/draft makes every D/ST practically useless. Go take a look at the scoring system Mike has us use for this draft and you'll see......

 

No points for turnovers, sacks, low points, low yardage.......

[Da Bomb 0]

im totally with you on D scoring and getting a leg up at any position. no question, thats something you want to do. i dont remember questioning taking baltimores D in the 10th in IBL last year. they were my #1 D in my rankings i think, and defenses score a lot in the IBL system, so i wouldnt fault that pick at all.

 

problem is that in this scoring, the only defensive points are TDs. and imo that is a completely unpredicable stat. i believe chicago had the most ever last year, and that was like not even double digits. and pretty much any standard team (esp when only 12 will be picked) will get you at least 3-5. now i agree that 10 TDs compared to 5 is a significant advantage, but who predicted that hester outburst from chicago, or who can predict accurately what defense/st is going to score the most TDs this year? its a pretty far out gamble imo, just way too many variables to have any sort of good predicter. i think its something that should be done away with in this mock, or changed so the scoring matters. baltimore's defense will probably end up scoring you about 36 to 48 points. most defenses will probably be in about the same area. the only way i see taking defenses mattering is if you took a second defense next round like (deleted) and then hoped to get a TD a week. imo that might actually be a good way to get a leg up somewhere, though it obviously costs you depth elsewhere.

[Fumbleweed 485]

Anybody know who led the NFL in receptions last year during the final month/four weeks of the season?

[RLLD 3,928]

I think what he's saying is the scoring system for D/ST in this league/draft makes every D/ST practically useless. Go take a look at the scoring system Mike has us use for this draft and you'll see......

 

No points for turnovers, sacks, low points, low yardage.......

 

Exactly. In a system where big plays favor the Def, i think the distinction is even more important.

 

Imagine the value of a Def in this system where every week each team is getting perhaps 5-10 points (just making that up), but instead I managed to grab the one capable of putting up 10-15 points.

 

I could have taken Horn here, or some other 3rd/4th WR, and perhaps they could get spot-duty for me on bye weeks, or force me to make tough decisions among the starters. Or i can get that over the top Def, and opt to find the same kind of potential production a round later, in players as yet to be named.

 

WR/RB's in rounds 10/11/12 are not that stark in their potential production, I submit that I have just as much a chance of securing Horn-like production next round, but the Raven's def is a big differrence maker because of this scoring system

 

I know few will agree, but i firmly believe this to be true.

[Dan 62]

I think what he's saying is the scoring system for D/ST in this league/draft makes every D/ST practically useless. Go take a look at the scoring system Mike has us use for this draft and you'll see......

 

No points for turnovers, sacks, low points, low yardage.......

 

This was my concern. It's the true disappointment of this scoring system. The defense has zero strategic value to the draft.

[remote controller 143]

Anybody know who led the NFL in receptions last year during the final month/four weeks of the season?

Furrey

 

8 of us on...........lets roll!

[Fumbleweed 485]

Furrey

 

8 of us on...........lets roll!

 

No....Ronald Curry

[remote controller 143]

No....Ronald Curry

I almost said that because it was obvious which pick prompted it. I was about to post that i felt Curry was a better selection than Porter. I went with Furrey cuz he just seemed to get stronger as the year went on, and I am a UNI alumnist!!! Go Panthers!!!

[Da Bomb 0]

No....Ronald Curry

 

holy cow. now that is a stat i definitely was completely unaware of.

 

also jscott, that wasnt nice taking ben watson. you already have a TE, you were supposed to leave him be so lou could get him. the cap'n is NOT gonna be happy!

[remote controller 143]

Mr. Magoo leaves the building!!

 

holy cow. now that is a stat i definitely was completely unaware of.

 

also jscott, that wasnt nice taking ben watson. you already have a TE, you were supposed to leave him be so lou could get him. the cap'n is NOT gonna be happy!

 

Though I like Curry better than Porter, mainly because of work ethic and professionalism, this stat doesn't mean that much given the change at QB. That is a whole new ballgame in Oakland this year. It wasn't Brooks who threw those passes either

[JScott 20]

also jscott, that wasnt nice taking ben watson. you already have a TE, you were supposed to leave him be so lou could get him. the cap'n is NOT gonna be happy!

He can make the homer DST pick

 

Actually, I'll admit I let the No Hassle format influence this pick a bit. Some might not even take a second TE, but since Witten was so far down my list of starting TEs I felt it was necessary to get a good backup as early as possible. Plus with Watson it's feast or famine, which is a perfect compliment to Wittens level production.

 

Watson's production going into this season is a big ? to me. Yes, the Pats added a lot of other targets for Brady, but they also lost Graham. Will the likes of Moss, Stallworth, ~other NE WRs~ make more space on the field for Watson or will they bogart all the passes

[Fumbleweed 485]

He can make the homer DST pick

 

Actually, I'll admit I let the No Hassle format influence this pick a bit. Some might not even take a second TE, but since Witten was so far down my list of starting TEs I felt it was necessary to get a good backup as early as possible. Plus with Watson it's feast or famine, which is a perfect compliment to Wittens level production.

 

Watson's production going into this season is a big ? to me. Yes, the Pats added a lot of other targets for Brady, but they also lost Graham. Will the likes of Moss, Stallworth, ~other NE WRs~ make more space on the field for Watson or will they bogart all the passes

 

I always take two TEs because of our No-Hassle format. It's a smart play.

[Da Bomb 0]

depth at any position in this draft is a good play. having a pair of good kickers, for instance, coudl be a huge boon for you cuz you could get a 10 point game every week. its just you only have a few extra picks. in this case since you got a lower tier TE, adding a second is a good idea.

 

cap'n wouldve liked watson as his starting TE after waiting so long, but all 3 picks in between lou's picks had a starting TE already while all 3 of you (i think?) needed a backup QB. watson is nice but passing on vick and dropping to his next highest ranked qb wouldve been a big hit, so that was the issue.