Forte will be a bust for where he's drafted

[#1LionFan 0]

You're making a projection based on last year's stats. Why would Forte get 300 carries? Why would he get 60 receptions? Where is the upside?? He put up those numbers last year because he was almost the ENTIRE offense. This year Cutler, Olsen, and Hester will be expected to make significant contributions.

 

One thing that i am certain of is that he will not be Top 3 RB by the end of the year, which was what the OP originally set out to discuss!

 

Conclusion: Mid-first round to Early-second round, depending on your propensity to risk.

 

Who is to think he will not be the entire O again this year. You say Hester will be a major contributor, but as every year, he never is. What makes you think, other than Olson, Cutler is going to have any reliable targets. Forte will continue to be the centerpiece. While I do see his rushes and reception totals going down slightly, I think it is resonable to think that he is going to make more out of his attempts. 300 carries and 50-60 receptions are not out of the question. And IMO his TD totals will definately go up. What do you mean upside!!!! Do you need more??? Do you like Portis' or Westbrook's or even LT's upside more???? If so, good luck. It could be argued that Slaton, who you probably have ahead of him already hit his ceiling - everything fell into place for him this past season. Same with C. Johnson. They also have risk. Young backs who rely on speed are always one injury away from never being the same. Forte has much more to offer and I would take hime #4 behind AP, Turner, and MJD anyday!

[karmarooster 0]

Who is to think he will not be the entire O again this year. You say Hester will be a major contributor, but as every year, he never is. What makes you think, other than Olson, Cutler is going to have any reliable targets. Forte will continue to be the centerpiece. While I do see his rushes and reception totals going down slightly, I think it is resonable to think that he is going to make more out of his attempts. 300 carries and 50-60 receptions are not out of the question. And IMO his TD totals will definately go up. What do you mean upside!!!! Do you need more??? Do you like Portis' or Westbrook's or even LT's upside more???? If so, good luck. It could be argued that Slaton, who you probably have ahead of him already hit his ceiling - everything fell into place for him this past season. Same with C. Johnson. They also have risk. Young backs who rely on speed are always one injury away from never being the same. Forte has much more to offer and I would take hime #4 behind AP, Turner, and MJD anyday!

 

it looks like we're never going to agree on this, so we can just agree to disagree. we'll see how the season plays out. you may be right about the TDs, but i'm pretty sure i'm right about yardage and receptions.

 

to respond to your post.... this is hester's third year playing WR and now he's got a QB who can take advantage of his main talent, ie going deep. also the afforementioned Kevin Jones won't be a RBBC, but he will serve as a backup and take some rushes. i don't like portis, westbrook, or LT over Forte but i do like CJ and Slaton about the same as Forte. The thing about Forte is that he is not an exceptionally talented back... he does many things well but does not do anything exceptionally well. that, in addition to the quality of the o-line, limits his upside.

 

but you lose all credibility with the fact that you have Turner at #2 overall in PPR rankings. even I would take Forte over Turner in PPR!

[eagles115 23]

If your talkin upside.....Then why not S-jax over Forte. If S-jax stays healthy which we all know is a big IF, he could easily post the best numbers out of all th rb's this year. Remember in 06 Jax caught 90 balls, which forte wont come close to this year. And now jackson has a beefed up line.. In a ppr I have the 6 pick, if forte and jackson are both there I am going jackson all the way

[Cara 0]

Hey Cara.......I have recently been thinking about Kevin Jones (yeah, that ex-Lion Kevin Jones). His numbers have never been stellar, although he did put up 1,200/8 yards from scrimmage in 06. He is reportedly finally healthy, is only 26 years old, and weighs 228. Are you predicting that Forte will lose carries and goal lines to Jones? He's got to be better than Garret Wolfe or Adrian Peterson Jr.

 

 

I'm not really thinking he will lose the GL carries to Jones so much as losing overall carries to a combo of Jones and Wolfe. Lovie Smith has said numerous times he will rest Forte much more than last season. I think he will lose several carries per game.

[Cara 0]

I don't think Kevin Jones will see many goal line carries instead of Forte, but he should be used in some kind of time share (although not a full blown RBBC).

There's no reason to assume Forte will get more than 300 carries again. 280ish is a more reasonable, safe-conservative estimate for projections.

You're making a projection based on last year's stats. Why would Forte get 300 carries? Why would he get 60 receptions? Where is the upside?? He put up those numbers last year because he was almost the ENTIRE offense. This year Cutler, Olsen, and Hester will be expected to make significant contributions.

 

Last year's RB rush totals:

Forte 316

KJones 34

Peterson 20

Wolfe 15

McKie 11

 

That's 386 total rushes by all RBs. Forte's 316 is about 82% of the total. That has to come down if the Bears are interested in keeping Forte as a franchise RB for a number of years. 70-75% is more reasonable. Cutler should convert more 3rd downs than Orton and keep more drives alive, resulting in more offensive plays and thus more rushes.

 

Projections:

400 total rushes by RBs

Forte 280 (70%)

Jones 80 (20%)

Others 40 (10%)

 

You could argue that Forte's YPC will increase because Cutler will stretch the field more and keep the safeties farther away from the LOS, but you could also argue that the offensive line (including old man Pace) will prevent the YPC from increasing too much. 4.0 to 4.1 is reasonable (as i said in my previous post).

 

280 x 4.0 or 4.1 = 1120 to 1148 yards rushing

 

There's also little reason to assume Forte will have 60 receptions again. While he is an a polished receiver out of the backfield, Orton had a propensity to throw the check down. He's not a gunslinger like Cutler. I see more Grossman than Orton in Cutler, although he is much more talented than Grossman... he has the same mentality. More passes deep, more passes squeezed into tight windows, possibly more INTs than Orton. Forte's receptions should go down....

 

40-45 receptions x 7.6 YPC (no reason to assume this will change) = 304 to 345 yards receiving

 

TDs are notoriously hard to predict but i'll give him 10 combined.

 

1148 rushing + 345 receiving + 45 receptions + 10TDs = 254.3 points

1120 + 304 +40 + 10 TDs = 242 points

 

~245-255 points PPR

 

Is that really what you're looking for from a first rounder? Is that what you want in a top 3 pick?? It depends on what you're looking for. I'm looking for 300 points in the first round. But his floor is pretty high and that's not a bad thing for a safe, low risk first rounder. Or you could swing for the fences. He is consistent as hell and that's always a plus when you go head to head... put him in the line up and put around 15-20 points in the bank. Personally i won't be considering him until around 1.06-1.08 (MJD, AP, Gore, SJax, CJ4.24, Fitz, Calvin, AJ).

 

One thing that i am certain of is that he will not be Top 3 RB by the end of the year, which was what the OP originally set out to discuss!

 

Conclusion: Mid-first round to Early-second round, depending on your propensity to risk.

 

Excellent post.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

You expect me to give you my "can size" when you cannot even use the English language properly. When you learn to spell, or graduate the 2nd grade, I'll consider it.

 

Oh, so grammar is the holdup huh? Ok, Let's rock it old english style.

 

My lady Cara, wilt thou be so kind as to provide our humble board with an approximation of the dimensions of thy bosom? We shall be ever so appreciative.

 

Cheers.

[stonewall 647]

Oh, so grammar is the holdup huh? Ok, Let's rock it old english style.

 

My lady Cara, wilt thou be so kind as to provide our humble board with an approximation of the dimensions of thy bosom? We shall be ever so appreciative.

 

Cheers.

 

 

The man is no quitter.....I'll give him that.

 

Perhaps his persistence will pay.

[karmarooster 0]

Excellent post.

 

and rooster gets the girl!

 

Oh, so grammar is the holdup huh? Ok, Let's rock it old english style.

 

My lady Cara, wilt thou be so kind as to provide our humble board with an approximation of the dimensions of thy bosom? We shall be ever so appreciative.

 

Cheers.

 

don't you get it? the way to her heart (thus, bosom) is not via can-queries, but with sound fantasy analysis.

 

Cara, you could possibly be my dream woman. please check all that apply:

 

likes:

fantasy football

golf

tennis

video games

travel

 

dislikes:

all other fantasy sports

light beer

republicans

matt forte in early-to-mid-1st round

[#1LionFan 0]

it looks like we're never going to agree on this, so we can just agree to disagree. we'll see how the season plays out. you may be right about the TDs, but i'm pretty sure i'm right about yardage and receptions.

 

to respond to your post.... this is hester's third year playing WR and now he's got a QB who can take advantage of his main talent, ie going deep. also the afforementioned Kevin Jones won't be a RBBC, but he will serve as a backup and take some rushes. i don't like portis, westbrook, or LT over Forte but i do like CJ and Slaton about the same as Forte. The thing about Forte is that he is not an exceptionally talented back... he does many things well but does not do anything exceptionally well. that, in addition to the quality of the o-line, limits his upside.

 

but you lose all credibility with the fact that you have Turner at #2 overall in PPR rankings. even I would take Forte over Turner in PPR!

 

We can agree to disagree, I do not think K. Jones, other than a breather here and there, will cut into Forte's workload at all. An improved pass attack may limit his receptions as compared to last year but not much else.

 

I never ranked my PPR RBs. When I said I would gladly take Forte #4 behind the payers I mentioned, I was more talking generally. Forgot this thread was PPR, etc. And no, I probably would not draft Turner this high in a PPR. But then again I would also drop AP a spot or two also. Did I get my credibility back bro???

[stonewall 647]

and rooster gets the girl!

 

 

Cara, you could possibly be my dream woman.

 

Of course you realize that you are very likely talking to a dude.........

[mggoilers 0]

I believe Forte is overvalued. I believe I am in the minority. I don't believe he has elite talent, which should be the reason he is being drafted so high. I believe he is a safe option.

 

On his best day, he couldn't carry AD, Westy, LT, Portis, S-Jax, and a handful of other guys jocks.

 

One year skews his value. Good luck drafting him top 5. he won't lose you a championship, but he won't carry your team. just my take.

[#1LionFan 0]

If your talkin upside.....Then why not S-jax over Forte. If S-jax stays healthy which we all know is a big IF, he could easily post the best numbers out of all th rb's this year. Remember in 06 Jax caught 90 balls, which forte wont come close to this year. And now jackson has a beefed up line.. In a ppr I have the 6 pick, if forte and jackson are both there I am going jackson all the way

 

That I could see, I would have a difficult time deciding between Forte and Jackson too. But to say Forte should drop until early second round or 12 backs should be taken before him - as some posters have wrote - is insane.

[Dawgoneit2 6]

One year skews his value.

 

 

You're right. However, all things being equal ('equal', as in the same as last year; competition, O-line, etc); you'd have just as good a chance of being right about him as those who say he'll do just as well, or better. Because you just don't have any other years to compare him by. But, IMHO, at least you can look at the improvements the Bears made and say the edge goes to those who think he'll do better just because of that.

[Cara 0]

Good luck to everyone this season. I'm logging out of FFToday for good. I think this site needs some serious moderation or you will get exactly what you have here right now..... A fantasy message board where 80% of the posts are totally useless. This isn't the only fantasy message board and I am now sorry I wasted my time here.

 

FFToday should be more careful in the future as it would not take much to have certain Women's Groups all over this board. I have seriously considered that already as what has been posted here is nothing short of sexual harassment. I went so far as trying to prove who I am, but that post was deleted..... Hmmm... Yeah, this site isn't biased. I highly doubt this site can afford a lawsuit. Instead of being a witch, I will simply leave. I'm thinking the cavemen here need to wake up and realize the 1970's are long gone. "Free" website or not, a person can sue for harassment any time they are asked to sign up for something. Mod Mike should REALLY look into that as I see a lawsuit in his future. It may not be from me, but I promise it will come from someone as this is the most disparaging site to women I have seen in quite some time. And for the record.... I was smart enough to print out all the forum comments pertaining to me before I leave. : )

[VaTerp 0]

Good luck to everyone this season. I'm logging out of FFToday for good. I think this site needs some serious moderation or you will get exactly what you have here right now..... A fantasy message board where 80% of the posts are totally useless. This isn't the only fantasy message board and I am now sorry I wasted my time here.

 

FFToday should be more careful in the future as it would not take much to have certain Women's Groups all over this board. I have seriously considered that already as what has been posted here is nothing short of sexual harassment. I went so far as trying to prove who I am, but that post was deleted..... Hmmm... Yeah, this site isn't biased. I highly doubt this site can afford a lawsuit. Instead of being a witch, I will simply leave. I'm thinking the cavemen here need to wake up and realize the 1970's are long gone. "Free" website or not, a person can sue for harassment any time they are asked to sign up for something. Mod Mike should REALLY look into that as I see a lawsuit in his future. It may not be from me, but I promise it will come from someone as this is the most disparaging site to women I have seen in quite some time. And for the record.... I was smart enough to print out all the forum comments pertaining to me before I leave. : )

 

Good luck with the lawsuit TOOTS! And please send the women's groups this way. I could use the entertainment.

 

I know a number of lawyers, including my wife, and am sure I could convince a few of them to help Mike out pro-bono. But they really wouldnt need them b/c your frivolous suit would get laughed out of court.

 

I'm all for thoughtful discussion but this is a message board for fantasy football. There are gonna be some jokes and ruffled feathers as there well should be. Way too many people taking themselves too seriously on here lately. Why on earth would you feel the need to "prove" yourself on an internet forum? That shows you are not really a well adjusted person and have a lot of personal development to do.

 

This board was fine before you and will be fine after you and all of the other pathetic crybabies leave.

 

[Bishop82 61]

Good luck to everyone this season. I'm logging out of FFToday for good. I think this site needs some serious moderation or you will get exactly what you have here right now..... A fantasy message board where 80% of the posts are totally useless. This isn't the only fantasy message board and I am now sorry I wasted my time here.

 

FFToday should be more careful in the future as it would not take much to have certain Women's Groups all over this board. I have seriously considered that already as what has been posted here is nothing short of sexual harassment. I went so far as trying to prove who I am, but that post was deleted..... Hmmm... Yeah, this site isn't biased. I highly doubt this site can afford a lawsuit. Instead of being a witch, I will simply leave. I'm thinking the cavemen here need to wake up and realize the 1970's are long gone. "Free" website or not, a person can sue for harassment any time they are asked to sign up for something. Mod Mike should REALLY look into that as I see a lawsuit in his future. It may not be from me, but I promise it will come from someone as this is the most disparaging site to women I have seen in quite some time. And for the record.... I was smart enough to print out all the forum comments pertaining to me before I leave. : )

 

Guessing she got her monthly visit from her aunt Flow;

[Gladiators 1,960]

Good luck to everyone this season. I'm logging out of FFToday for good. I think this site needs some serious moderation or you will get exactly what you have here right now..... A fantasy message board where 80% of the posts are totally useless. This isn't the only fantasy message board and I am now sorry I wasted my time here.

 

FFToday should be more careful in the future as it would not take much to have certain Women's Groups all over this board. I have seriously considered that already as what has been posted here is nothing short of sexual harassment. I went so far as trying to prove who I am, but that post was deleted..... Hmmm... Yeah, this site isn't biased. I highly doubt this site can afford a lawsuit. Instead of being a witch, I will simply leave. I'm thinking the cavemen here need to wake up and realize the 1970's are long gone. "Free" website or not, a person can sue for harassment any time they are asked to sign up for something. Mod Mike should REALLY look into that as I see a lawsuit in his future. It may not be from me, but I promise it will come from someone as this is the most disparaging site to women I have seen in quite some time. And for the record.... I was smart enough to print out all the forum comments pertaining to me before I leave. : )

 

Wow...It's not worth my time to type the lengthy/detailed post I was going to write. To sum up what I was going to write - Good luck! If you would like to waste tens of thousands of dollars on an attorney, yes there will be some moron that would take a case like this just to bill the chit out of you, go ahead and try. But, you'd be much better off putting that money into more $1,000 FF leagues. This is the internet...People are going to say things you don't like and some of those things may even be offensive. However, our legal system is already backed up with so many other slightly more important claims/cases that they couldn't handle the millions of cases that could be brough on from internet discussions. If your feelings were hurt by others, I'm sorry, but the legal system doesn't have the time to shut down all the interent forums, blogs, or other means of communcation out there where people's feelings are hurt.

 

We all wish you the best...

[heavy-set 39]

FF101

 

last year doesnt = this year.

 

There is always big time turnover in the top 10 rbs from year to year and he is a prime canidate. He wont be a total bust, but i dont see him repeating his #s. in ppr leagues it will be harder for him to bust, as he catches too many balls to bust.

 

I just dont see him as an anchor rb