do rag 0 Posted August 27, 2009 Our league is a 12-team league going to the "3rd round reversal" format this year essentially, the 3rd round drafting order is reversed, all other rounds remain the same. In this format, where is the best drafting position? Would you rather be drafting at the end of the first round? Anybody have any experience with this format? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KSB2424 3,148 Posted August 27, 2009 12th pick gets a huge advantage. That method is dumb. It overcompensates for a perceived advantage that isn't really there (fallacy). It's overcompensation at it's finest. The standard snake draft is the fairest to all (if you aren't doing an auction). Your league is trying to fix something that isn't broke. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
do rag 0 Posted August 27, 2009 I tend to agree...it is what it is, however...I have to deal with it I think this year, there are so many question marks at the top of the board, that this method isn't really fair Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KSB2424 3,148 Posted August 27, 2009 I tend to agree...it is what it is, however...I have to deal with it I think this year, there are so many question marks at the top of the board, that this method isn't really fair It's never really fair because we can't predict the future, so changing a perfectly fair system based on 'projections' is dumb. It's dumb every year, even when you think that the number one pick is a lock. But since there is nothing you can do about it then I would try my damndest to get at the back of the order. Starting with 12. You get picks 12,13, 25 for crying out loud. Compare that to the first pick 1,24,36. It's a joke. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
illest 0 Posted August 27, 2009 wow what a joke. I'd quit that league immediately. The top few picks really get hosed in that system. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KSB2424 3,148 Posted August 27, 2009 wow what a joke. I'd quit that league immediately. The top few picks really get hosed in that system. It came about because of Faulk and then LT2. Everybody in the fantasy football land thought that the first pick had some huge advantage. When in fact they didn't. People were winning fantasy titles from the one postion, form the 6 postion, and from the 12 hole. Always have been. Just look at last year. How did the people that drafted Brady, LT2 do? I mean D-Will, AJ, and Brees led their postions in scoring and wern't drafted in the top half of the first round. ADP didn't finish in top 3 of RB's. Screwing around with the draft order just messes up something that is perfectly, mathmatically, fair. All because people 'think' something that is a fallacy. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
shutdown 40 Posted August 27, 2009 Our league is a 12-team league going to the "3rd round reversal" format this year essentially, the 3rd round drafting order is reversed, all other rounds remain the same. In this format, where is the best drafting position? Would you rather be drafting at the end of the first round? Anybody have any experience with this format? Not to beat a dead horse, but isn't the theory behind 3rd round reversal to not have an advantage at any drafting position? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
do rag 0 Posted August 27, 2009 I'm stuck at # 3......#12 guy wants to flip flop 4th round picks in exchange for changing draft spots meaning, if I would change, I'd have 12-13-25-46-60-61 he'd have 3-22-34-37-51-70 do it?? I don't think I have a choice... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
illest 0 Posted August 27, 2009 how is it not so obvious how stupid a 3rd round reversal is to your league? Can't you just easily talk some sense in to them? Or get new friends? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
do rag 0 Posted August 27, 2009 not much I can do about it at this point....it's going to happen regardless...that's not the issue now... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paucm0 0 Posted August 27, 2009 12th pick gets a huge advantage. That method is dumb. It overcompensates for a perceived advantage that isn't really there (fallacy). It's overcompensation at it's finest. The standard snake draft is the fairest to all (if you aren't doing an auction). Your league is trying to fix something that isn't broke. Not true at all. Read this: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2007/0...quino_trr12.php The 3rd round reversal is actually the MOST FAIR. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
illest 0 Posted August 27, 2009 Then yes, I'd probably change with him...but it is real close. Only 59% of me thinks that. Others may disagree. Man, you should point out how sad it is to your leage that someone who is trading down on draft day is having to give up a concession in order to trade down. Nutty. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KSB2424 3,148 Posted August 28, 2009 Not true at all. Read this: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2007/0...quino_trr12.php The 3rd round reversal is actually the MOST FAIR. X You're wrong and so is the chump that wrote that. All you have to do is read this from the article you linked: In order to see how balanced each of these approaches are, we first need to define a value for each pick. There's no better way around that I've found than just plugging each pick into a Pick Value Calculator, such as the one found at Footballguys. Of course everyone's opinion on what each pick is really worth can vary from year to year, but the calculator value method at least gives us an idea of a typical value for each pick The guy says it himself. Gives us an idea? What does that mean? You guess at what somebody will do and that is what you use as a variable? How stupid is this guy? All that calculation is based on opinion, projection, and speculation. All those numbers he plugged in, are what HE thinks (footballguys) the pick value is worth. So that right there makes his ananlysis simply HIS guess. We don't have a crystal ball and actually know what the picks are really valued before the season starts. Nobody knows. We only guess. So this whole article is based on a wild speculation, which makes it a fallacy. I'll break it down for you without magic made up numbers like this guy. We create cheatsheets and draft players based on the only information we can. Projections of the future season. That's all we got and those change from person to person. HOWEVER, to change a perfectly mathmatical draft template (as the serpentine is) based on that guesswork is simply wrong. You are changing a fair mehtod because you 'think' a certain pick is worth more based on what you GUESS a player will do. Since no of us has a crystal ball then it is dumb, unfair, and this guy is an idiot. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KSB2424 3,148 Posted August 28, 2009 I'm stuck at # 3......#12 guy wants to flip flop 4th round picks in exchange for changing draft spots meaning, if I would change, I'd have 12-13-25-46-60-61 he'd have 3-22-34-37-51-70 do it?? I don't think I have a choice... All you are doing by swapping 4th round picks is "re-leveling" the playing feild back to a regular draft. So just pick the draft position you like better in a normal serpentine draft and take that. 3 or 12. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
do rag 0 Posted August 28, 2009 guy changed his mind and flat turned it down....I'm stuck at # 3 in this screwy format...I'm screwed... that being said, how do I approach the draft...the strategy I wanted to employ which worked great last year (WR-WR), seems like it's out the window, since my 3rd round pick isn't until pick # 34, and I don't think I can wait that long on a RB. Now I have to do what I don't want to do...pick one of these RBs that seem like they are all the same.... its yardage/distance with 0.5 pt PPR I'm looking at MJD, Forte, Peterson, D Williams....leaning toward either MJD or Forte...(it sucks that I won't have a stud WR...do I dare draft Moss at #3) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KSB2424 3,148 Posted August 28, 2009 guy changed his mind and flat turned it down....I'm stuck at # 3 in this screwy format...I'm screwed... that being said, how do I approach the draft...the strategy I wanted to employ which worked great last year (WR-WR), seems like it's out the window, since my 3rd round pick isn't until pick # 34, and I don't think I can wait that long on a RB. Now I have to do what I don't want to do...pick one of these RBs that seem like they are all the same.... its yardage/distance with 0.5 pt PPR I'm looking at MJD, Forte, Peterson, D Williams....leaning toward either MJD or Forte...(it sucks that I won't have a stud WR...do I dare draft Moss at #3) It's not THAT bad, you just get shafted in the third round by about 8 spots, but it's sitll okay. Unfair? Yes, but it's not the end of the world. I think you go with either ADP, MJD, or Forte. Then you play it by ear. Teir up your cheatsheet and draft the best available. Hopefully a Roddy White, Steve Smith, Jennings, Colsten, o Bouldin might fall to #34. I doubt it, but you never know. If not then just grab a RB or QB. How high are you on Wes Welker at .5 PPR? He should be there along with Bowe. Not sure your feelings on those guys. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
do rag 0 Posted August 28, 2009 It's not THAT bad, you just get shafted in the third round by about 8 spots, but it's sitll okay. Unfair? Yes, but it's not the end of the world. I think you go with either ADP, MJD, or Forte. Then you play it by ear. Teir up your cheatsheet and draft the best available. Hopefully a Roddy White, Steve Smith, Jennings, Colsten, o Bouldin might fall to #34. I doubt it, but you never know. If not then just grab a RB or QB. How high are you on Wes Welker at .5 PPR? He should be there along with Bowe. Not sure your feelings on those guys. Thanks for the input man... I think your right on...however, I probably would try to wait on a QB...Rodgers, Rivers, Warner are the 3 guys I like...maybe 5th round on Warner would be ideal... I like Welker a lot...if he's there in the 3rd, I'd probably take him, unless one of the other guys you mentioned is there, which I highly doubt I really don't want Peterson...I know that he's #1 on most boards, but I see him a little lower than that, probably #4 or 5...I don't know, just me...the guy catches hardly any passes... I'd probably draft MJD or Forte and be happy about it... Thanks again for the input.. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
illest 0 Posted August 28, 2009 don't want Peterson...I know that he's #1 on most boards, but I see him a little lower than that, probably #4 or 5...I don't know, just me...the guy catches hardly any passes... Catching passes isn't as important when your rushing for 1800 yards. Also keep in mind with Favre as his QB and Peterson's desire and focus to get more involved in the passing game this year he will catch more passes. Peterson could post 2200-2400 rushing & receiving yards this year along with significantly more touchdowns than last year. There is no reason to think he couldn't have a monster year, LT style. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
do rag 0 Posted August 28, 2009 Catching passes isn't as important when your rushing for 1800 yards. Also keep in mind with Favre as his QB and Peterson's desire and focus to get more involved in the passing game this year he will catch more passes. Peterson could post 2200-2400 rushing & receiving yards this year along with significantly more touchdowns than last year. There is no reason to think he couldn't have a monster year, LT style. AP had 1882 total yards last year...I could see him having maybe 2100 max...just because he has desire, doesn't change his ablility to catch passes...he is a runner, he doesn't have great hands...I don't think he will ever put up LT #s....just my opinion however... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paucm0 0 Posted August 28, 2009 XSince no of us has a crystal ball then it is dumb, unfair, and this guy is an idiot. So by definition, I can call you an idiot too because you have nothing to backup your reasoning for thinking that a 3rd round reversal is stupid? I'll hang up and wait for that proof. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WhiteWonder 2,673 Posted August 28, 2009 guy changed his mind and flat turned it down....I'm stuck at # 3 in this screwy format...I'm screwed... that being said, how do I approach the draft...the strategy I wanted to employ which worked great last year (WR-WR), seems like it's out the window, since my 3rd round pick isn't until pick # 34, and I don't think I can wait that long on a RB. Now I have to do what I don't want to do...pick one of these RBs that seem like they are all the same.... its yardage/distance with 0.5 pt PPR I'm looking at MJD, Forte, Peterson, D Williams....leaning toward either MJD or Forte...(it sucks that I won't have a stud WR...do I dare draft Moss at #3) Is it a big money league? If not, take Stephen Gostkowski in round 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WhiteWonder 2,673 Posted August 28, 2009 So by definition, I can call you an idiot too because you have nothing to backup your reasoning for thinking that a 3rd round reversal is stupid? I'll hang up and wait for that proof. WHAT?!?!?! his reasoning was pretty clear. A serpentine draft is the most fair way to run things because no one can predict for certain that the first pick or first few picks will end up being the best player or players. A third round reversal draft is an idea thought up under the assumption that the people in the early draft spots are automatically getting the best players. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KSB2424 3,148 Posted August 29, 2009 So by definition, I can call you an idiot too because you have nothing to backup your reasoning for thinking that a 3rd round reversal is stupid? I'll hang up and wait for that proof. It's called common sense. Those numbers that he is making a case for in that article are based on his PROJECTIONS. Then he makes a case that we should change a perfectly mathmatical drafting template based on his GUESSWORK. Stop right there. No need to go further. Let that soak in. We cannot truely predict that MJD will score X number of points in the future. We cannot turely predict that Andre Johnson will score X number of points. So to give a pick slot a 'value' is dumb and idiotic. The reason is because it's based on guesswork. He doesn't have a crystal ball. This really isn't that hard. Sure we use that guesswork to pick our players because that is all we can do, but to change a perfectily mathmatical drafting method based on that guesswork is dumb. It just is. That would be like the commish of your league setting the divisions up, then after the draft saying he is going to change up the divisions because HE thinks one division has to many good teams. He doesn't know that. He can't predict what will happen, so it is wrong for him to go back and change the divisions based on his guesswork. People get hurt, there are busts, and not to mention the top 3 or4 players usually don't even finish in the top 3 anyway. All that work is in that article is based on footballguys projections (which is where they derive the pick value), therefore because it's based on guesswork it means nothing and they wasted their time, not to mention brainwashed everybody that read it. Obviously the guy that wrote that likes fantasy football and is an accountant or something in his spare time, because he sure doesn't have a major in statistics. If he did he would know that deriving a proof based on data that is guessed at out of thin air only produces a statistical fallacy and is invalid. We project future stats on ball players to help draft them, trade for them (or picks), and pick them up off waivers. We should not use anyones projections to change divisions, redo schedules, or change draft orders. Those things are fair as is and changing them based on projections is wrong. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
illest 0 Posted August 29, 2009 Bottom line is in a standard serpine draft getting picks 12 & 13 compensate equally in terms of the quality of team you can draft with the person who picks 1 & 24. #1 is obviously a better player than #12 but #13 is also alot better than #24. Serpentine already compensates, third round reversal is overkill. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
