"Fantasy football is 90% luck!"

[RoadLizard 73]

ok, so infoi is available to the masses. How someone interprets and acts on that info is also luck?

 

Another example: you and a lifelong carpenter. Both of you build a house - the info is out there on how to do it. His ends up better than yours. Is he just lucky?

 

Skill, experience, preparedness, effort - call it what you want. There are difference makers that extend beyond the ebb and flow of good and bad luck in FF.

 

Totally not the same thing but a cool analogy nontheless. You CAN increase you chances at having things go your way but there is simply too much out of your control with FF. Thats what people are getting at. Just look around at the crazy things that happen in FF year to year. Just injuries alone are impopssible to "skill" your way out of. Sure, if you owned Gore and Addai you could have drafted Westy and Brown but that would have come at the expense of other positions and depth.

 

I still think the word "skill" is used incorrectly here. It takes little skill to log onto the internet or watch football games on TV. Planning, making some key trades or FA signings, and keeping up on NFL news and trends is what you can do to help yourself. After that you are at the mercy of the fantasy gods. Or, just call it luck.

 

If it was just skill or mostly skill then they same guy would win the SB every year, wouldnt they? For those in leagues with retarded 7 year olds that win every year, you dont count.

[Frank M 181]

Are drafts luck? Well yes and no. Yes, I can employ a strategy and put my self in postion to draft the best players, but in the end, how those players perform is pure luck. If my first round pick blows out his knee on the first play of the season bad luck. If my late round lottery ticket, ala Peyton Hillis this year or say a Marques Colston in his rookie year, blows up, that is good luck. But it is luck pure and simple.

 

Injuries are bad luck. How players play is not luck. You drafted them, picked them up, traded for them because there was a probability that they would perform. If you picked up Peyton Hillis in the late rounds, you likely did it with the thought that there was a chance that he could do something. Exceeding expectations isn't luck. Neither is underperforming.

[Laurence Maroney's Nuts 2]

You know you've lost the argument when you have to resort to typo smack.

 

You've been epically pwnd in this thread.

 

You are making an argument that this activity (ffb) in which you participate is completely pointless. So why bother participating? Just play the lotto instead, and use your time for something more beneficial -- Perhaps some classes on grammar and comprehension.

 

I bet you're one of those people who's developed this defeatist attitude ("nothing is under my control / it's all luck / other people's fault / etc) after repeated failures in other arenas of life... and deny any responsibility for what happens in your life. I mean... It's all luck, right?

[FlaHawker 24]

Injuries are bad luck. How players play is not luck. You drafted them, picked them up, traded for them because there was a probability that they would perform. If you picked up Peyton Hillis in the late rounds, you likely did it with the thought that there was a chance that he could do something. Exceeding expectations isn't luck. Neither is underperforming.

Yes it is luck because Hillis doesn't go off without a Hardesty injury or a Harrison trade. But for argument's sake, then, what is the actual skill you employed in picking Hillis late?

[FlaHawker 24]

You've been epically pwnd in this thread.

 

You are making an argument that this activity (ffb) in which you participate is completely pointless. So why bother participating? Just play the lotto instead, and use your time for something more beneficial -- Perhaps some classes on grammar and comprehension.

 

I bet you're one of those people who's developed this defeatist attitude ("nothing is under my control / it's all luck / other people's fault / etc) after repeated failures in other arenas of life... and deny any responsibility for what happens in your life. I mean... It's all luck, right?

First typo smack and now you roll out the old and tired pwned

 

I never said FF was pointless? I just said whether you win or not is mostly due to the luck factor. Why bother than? Because it is fun! I get much more enjoyment playing FF than simply playing the lotto and in a league of 12 players, I have better odds of winning a title than hitting a lotto jackpot.

 

So you are really comparing FF to life? You take this shite way too seriously. You are probably like that other clown who makes himself puke after he loses.

 

FF is about having fun. I just don't delude myself that I some how have a skill that no others have. But you keep kidding yourself. Oh and if you have such tremendous skill, why don't you apply that skill to a real high stakes league instead of that little $10 family league where you, and I'll make you feel warm and fuzzy here, pwn grandma every year! Show us all how your skill can bag the WCOFF $300,000 grand prize!

[Walter34 3]

First typo smack and now you roll out the old and tired pwned

 

I never said FF was pointless? I just said whether you win or not is mostly due to the luck factor. Why bother than? Because it is fun! I get much more enjoyment playing FF than simply playing the lotto and in a league of 12 players, I have better odds of winning a title than hitting a lotto jackpot.

 

So you are really comparing FF to life? You take this shite way too seriously. You are probably like that other clown who makes himself puke after he loses.

 

FF is about having fun. I just don't delude myself that I some how have a skill that no others have. But you keep kidding yourself. Oh and if you have such tremendous skill, why don't you apply that skill to a real high stakes league instead of that little $10 family league where you, and I'll make you feel warm and fuzzy here, pwn grandma every year! Show us all how your skill can bag the WCOFF $300,000 grand prize!

 

So you have come down from 100% luck to mostly due to luck. Cool. The word skill is likely inappropriate as well and seems to be what you and others take umbrage with. Call it what you will, but strategy, preparation, attention, interpretation and effort are all things that we can do to become luckier. is that fair?

 

At this point in the season, when trade deadlines have passed and many rosters are locked down, its just watching and hoping, but it is part luck and all of the things you did up to this point that has you in the position you are in.

[Frank M 181]

Yes it is luck because Hillis doesn't go off without a Hardesty injury or a Harrison trade. But for argument's sake, then, what is the actual skill you employed in picking Hillis late?

 

I did the research on him and made an evaluation as to how he might do given the opportunity.

 

If at the point he was picked, I had no idea who he was or I just threw a dart at a board and it hit his name, yeah, I'd say it was luck. But at least a modicum of planning should go into every pick you make or every waiver move you make.

[FlaHawker 24]

I did the research on him and made an evaluation as to how he might do given the opportunity.

 

If at the point he was picked, I had no idea who he was or I just threw a dart at a board and it hit his name, yeah, I'd say it was luck. But at least a modicum of planning should go into every pick you make or every waiver move you make.

Ok so you did research and then picked Hillis. Then what happened? Hardesty gets hurt; Harrison gets traded. That has nothing to do with skill; that is luck. Props for picking him but luck played a huge factor in his breakout season.

[FlaHawker 24]

So you have come down from 100% luck to mostly due to luck. Cool. The word skill is likely inappropriate as well and seems to be what you and others take umbrage with. Call it what you will, but strategy, preparation, attention, interpretation and effort are all things that we can do to become luckier. is that fair?

 

At this point in the season, when trade deadlines have passed and many rosters are locked down, its just watching and hoping, but it is part luck and all of the things you did up to this point that has you in the position you are in.

True to a point. All the strategy, preparation, attention, and intepretation and effort means nothing when that key player blows out his knee, or when the Pats decide to trade Randy Moss in season, etc.... I do think that doing all that does increase one's abiltiy to get lucky but at the same time, I have seen leagues where guys simply draft out of magazine and perform pretty damn well and those other guys who eat this stuff like there is no tomorrow have crashed and burned.

[madd futher mucker 36]

I've just about completed an exhaustive and definitive two year study of luck versus skill in significantly competitive leagues. This objective study showed conclusively that in these type of leagues, fantasy football is just about exactly 70% skill and 30% luck.

 

Just coincidently, my two-year fantasy football record is 98 wins and 42 losses.

[stonewall 647]

I've just about completed an exhaustive and definitive two year study of luck versus skill in significantly competitive leagues. This objective study showed conclusively that in these type of leagues, fantasy football is just about exactly 70% skill and 30% luck.

 

 

 

 

 

nuff' said.

[VinAZ 0]

I see FF as being very similar to poker, in that the skilled and knowledgeable have an edge that enables them to win over the long run, but the inherent luck of the game gives anybody a chance to win in the short term. You can assign whatever percentage you want to it, but those who put their time into studying FF will almost certainly win more than they lose over time...

[jerryskids 6,095]

I've just about completed an exhaustive and definitive two year study of luck versus skill in significantly competitive leagues. This objective study showed conclusively that in these type of leagues, fantasy football is just about exactly 70% skill and 30% luck.

 

Just coincidently, my two-year fantasy football record is 98 wins and 42 losses.

Sorry, but in a significantly competitive league, there wouldn't be much difference in skill level. Hence it would be close to 100% luck. HTH.

[FlaHawker 24]

I've just about completed an exhaustive and definitive two year study of luck versus skill in significantly competitive leagues. This objective study showed conclusively that in these type of leagues, fantasy football is just about exactly 70% skill and 30% luck.

 

Just coincidently, my two-year fantasy football record is 98 wins and 42 losses.

Really? Care to actually give some specifics. What variables did you use? What data analysis methods did you use?

[FlaHawker 24]

 

 

nuff' said.

Glad to see you have a high threshold for actual proof I have some cheap land I could sell you too!

[MDC 6,659]

F@ghawker got pwned hard in this thread.

[TV's Frank 0]

I did the research on him and made an evaluation as to how he might do given the opportunity.

 

If at the point he was picked, I had no idea who he was or I just threw a dart at a board and it hit his name, yeah, I'd say it was luck. But at least a modicum of planning should go into every pick you make or every waiver move you make.

 

But the luck factor is that things that were completely random allowed Hillis to have the opportunity. Yes, it takes knowledge and preparation to pluck a guy like Hillis at the tail end of a draft. But it's a complete crap shoot as to whether or not that guy actually gets a chance to play.

 

I took Tashard Choice with the last pick in my draft for exactly the same reason. Guy has a ton of upside if someone gets hurt or something else happens that gives him the opportunity. Obviously, that didn't happen. If Felix Jones had gotten hurt instead of Hardesty, Choice could have easily been the surprise RB of the year while Hillis spent the season as a FB throwing blocks for Hardesty.

[Frank M 181]

But the luck factor is that things that were completely random allowed Hillis to have the opportunity. Yes, it takes knowledge and preparation to pluck a guy like Hillis at the tail end of a draft. But it's a complete crap shoot as to whether or not that guy actually gets a chance to play.

 

I took Tashard Choice with the last pick in my draft for exactly the same reason. Guy has a ton of upside if someone gets hurt or something else happens that gives him the opportunity. Obviously, that didn't happen. If Felix Jones had gotten hurt instead of Hardesty, Choice could have easily been the surprise RB of the year while Hillis spent the season as a FB throwing blocks for Hardesty.

 

There is a luck factor. It's not all luck, that's the point. Your fourth running back getting the chance to start due to injury may be luck, but how he performs after that is not. You picked him thinking he might do something. So when he does do something, that's luck?

[p00h 85]

repetitious conversation is repeating itself!

 

*yawn*

[FlaHawker 24]

F@ghawker got pwned hard in this thread.

How would you know? You have me blocked. Or did you welch on that promise too?

[lexdizzle 1]

Im not here to brag, but I find it hard to believe that its 90% luck.

 

In one league i have won the last 2 years and am in the championship this year.(hoping for 3 in a row.)

 

I dont play alot of leagues but i joined 2 different ones last year in addition to the one above. (Won both of those)

 

This year i played three leagues and am out of the playoffs in one(ill credit that to wierd scoring and never played in that league before, but am very confident that i could win that league next year now i know how to adapt to it)

 

Im in a good position to win both of the others this year. had most points in one 2nd best record, and best record 2nd most points(they are money leagues).

 

Is that luck that many times in a row?

 

"Fantasy football is 90% luck!" Alex I'll take what do losers say for $100...

[PATSSOX 22]

In my semi finals my opponent went of for season best 142 and i had 110. The other semi final was 98-80

[Tusekan Raiders 0]

Until you develop the powers to discourage a player from juicing and getting a four game suspension, intervene in an arguement with his baby momma and showing up for work any given Sunday without his head screwed on right, stop him from staying up until 4am at a strip club and spend more time on game film, prevent him from getting injured, improve his rehab with your medical techniques, decide playing time and call the plays for every team in the league, force a GM to tell a coach to play a guy more and make his draft decisions, referee the game, manipulate the standings to dictate which players need to play all out at the end of the season, do all this for all the players in the league and control the weather and edit the waiver wire in your league every week to get the top pick, the game is mostly luck. Just like many forms of gambling, there's a certain amount of skill that can improve your chances for success, but most of the result is dictated by events completely out of your control, aka luck.

 

Two things aren't luck or skill and don't belong in this thread are the example of bad record and high points scored. That's poor league design. There's all kinds of leagues with double-headers, power standings or points-based leagues, leagues with playoff spots allocated to points leaders, etc. to mitigate match-up luck. If you play in a league where you think you got screwed by the design, blame your decision to play in the league, not luck. The second is quality of opposition. All the guys pointing to skill in their consistent success, honestly evaluate the quality of your leagues. That probably explains your success more than some imagined higher level of "skill". Which leads to not confusing skill with effort. The exact same information and exposure (i.e. ability to watch any games and highlights) are available to everyone and finite. Those who spend more time utilizing it will have an advantage. If you take 12 guys of similar mental capacity who put in the exact same amount of effort, the results would be consistently random, as somewhat demonstrated by the so-called expert leagues (although commenting on alleged experts is a whole 'nother topic of nonsense).

[Gsizzle 0]

its prob more like 60 percent luck! but if ur in a league where its not 12 to 14 teams and transaction fees are 5$ or less and the waiver wire stays open DURING the playoffs, then yeah its more like 97 percent luck!

[ChiTownKev 0]

Well, to be fair, there's always an element of luck in just about everything, fantasy football included. Is it 90% luck? Hell, no. But every now and then even the most prepared owner can get screwed over by luck, thereby exacerbating our impression of its impact. Case in point...I was the number one team this season, hardly lost, and heavily favored to win it all. Then in the playoffs, I'm up against an owner who barely followed things all season long, and fell ass-backward into the postseason. What happens? Peyton Hillis, DeSean Jackson, and Wes Welker do squat. AP gets hurt. Suddenly my team isn't looking like the force it once was.

 

It happens. We all get screwed by luck. I tend to have hardly any good luck, ever. Mostly bad luck, most of the time. Some people are more fortunate. But here's the deal...if fantasy football was mostly about luck and not about research, planning, watching games, and strategy, I never would have been in that position to begin with. Sucks how it ended, but I just have to prepare again next time, and hope that things don't fall that way again.

[5-Points 3,163]

Okay, so two months ago, yahoo terminated my account. I've had absolutely no control of my team since then. My lineup has been the same for 8 weeks. My team went 6-2 over that time and I'm in the championship game this weekend. Was that pure dumb luck or was there some skill involved in putting together a team that could go 6-2 down the stretch without the need for any changes?

[MedStudent 56]

I am in the championship game and led my league in points.

 

I was skilled in drafting a good receiving corps (I specifically targeted Nicks and Bryant because I felt they would be surprises):

 

Marshall

Jennings

Nicks

Bryant

 

I was skilled in drafting a good d:

 

Pittsburgh

 

I was skilled in punting on my qb and drafting two late:

 

Kolb

E. Manning

 

I was being logical with the number 1 pick in the draft:

 

C. Johnson

 

I was unlucky with 2 picks

 

J. Best (i think he would have been a good pick without the turf toe injury)

J. Findley ( I think he would have been a stud if not injured)

 

I was lucky with one pick:

 

D. McFadden (picked him real late without thinking. Figured he would be dropped eventually)

 

I was extremely lucky with one waiver wire pickup:

 

Vick (picked him up when Kolb went down)

 

 

Starting lineup for the big game next week:

 

QB-Vick

RB-C. Johnson

RB-McFadden

WR-Jennings

WR-Marshall

WR-Nicks

TE-Pettigrew (may get Hernandez off the wire for this game)

D- Pittsburgh (different d without polamalu but facing carolina this week)

K- Josh Brown

[MedStudent 56]

Sorry, but in a significantly competitive league, there wouldn't be much difference in skill level. Hence it would be close to 100% luck. HTH.

 

don't go using logic on the mange bored.

[FlaHawker 24]

Until you develop the powers to discourage a player from juicing and getting a four game suspension, intervene in an arguement with his baby momma and showing up for work any given Sunday without his head screwed on right, stop him from staying up until 4am at a strip club and spend more time on game film, prevent him from getting injured, improve his rehab with your medical techniques, decide playing time and call the plays for every team in the league, force a GM to tell a coach to play a guy more and make his draft decisions, referee the game, manipulate the standings to dictate which players need to play all out at the end of the season, do all this for all the players in the league and control the weather and edit the waiver wire in your league every week to get the top pick, the game is mostly luck. Just like many forms of gambling, there's a certain amount of skill that can improve your chances for success, but most of the result is dictated by events completely out of your control, aka luck.

This

[FlaHawker 24]

Im not here to brag, but I find it hard to believe that its 90% luck.

 

In one league i have won the last 2 years and am in the championship this year.(hoping for 3 in a row.)

 

I dont play alot of leagues but i joined 2 different ones last year in addition to the one above. (Won both of those)

 

This year i played three leagues and am out of the playoffs in one(ill credit that to wierd scoring and never played in that league before, but am very confident that i could win that league next year now i know how to adapt to it)

 

Im in a good position to win both of the others this year. had most points in one 2nd best record, and best record 2nd most points(they are money leagues).

 

Is that luck that many times in a row?

 

"Fantasy football is 90% luck!" Alex I'll take what do losers say for $100...

You keep saying that and one day you'll actually believe it!

[crackills 19]

I think fantasy football is educated gambling.. like the stock market.

Football knowledge, ability to predict trends/ matchups and picking the right people off of waivers all give you a higher chance of success. Injuries happen just like they do in the NFL and you can lose a star at any time. You might find a great replacement or not.. that's based on your trading skills/ waivers knowledge.

I find that in my competitive money leagues, the same several players are usually the ones at the top of the league at the end of each season.

So regular season is 30-40% luck. Even if you lose a few games that you "shouldn't", overall if you have a good team you'll win more then you'll lose and get to the playoffs.

 

playoffs:

any given Sunday.. so if in one week some of your stars don't show up and some scrubs on the opponents team do, you can lose and be out of the playoffs. 70% luck due to single elimination format.

 

This just happened to me as i lost to guy with an a moslty scrub team that just happened to have a huge week. Sh!t happens, it's a game.

[schmitty34 2]

I see FF as being very similar to poker, in that the skilled and knowledgeable have an edge that enables them to win over the long run, but the inherent luck of the game gives anybody a chance to win in the short term. You can assign whatever percentage you want to it, but those who put their time into studying FF will almost certainly win more than they lose over time...

 

I agree with this.

 

Whether or not "skill" is the right word, you can definitely do things to give your self a good chance at success. However, any given week or any given season, things can happen that are totally out of your control that will wipe out everything you've done.

 

Injuries, unlucky matchups, etc, can all derail the season of even the most "skilled" ffb manager. Arguing over the % that is luck is pointless, but you can't argue that there is a pretty good amount of luck involved....just like poker.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Okay, so two months ago, yahoo terminated my account. I've had absolutely no control of my team since then. My lineup has been the same for 8 weeks. My team went 6-2 over that time and I'm in the championship game this weekend. Was that pure dumb luck or was there some skill involved in putting together a team that could go 6-2 down the stretch without the need for any changes?

 

I'd say you were very lucky that Yahoo terminated your account and it was on autopilot the last 8 weeks. Otherwise you most likely would really have focked up that team.

[5-Points 3,163]

I'd say you were very lucky that Yahoo terminated your account and it was on autopilot the last 8 weeks. Otherwise you most likely would really have focked up that team.

Absolutely fockin right I would have.

[PATSSOX 22]

I definetly agree

 

#8 seed in my league won first round game by 4 pts because Aaron Rodgers got hurt. In semi finals he played a team that only scored 80 and he scored 89. I scored 110 and lost. Now the focker is in the finals of 2 leagues i play in with him and he is playing vs Kitna in both

[ER1CKSON 0]

If luck wasn't involved I'd never lose.