Third Year WR's

[RareN64Dream 11]

On 5/26/2024 at 8:52 PM, Ray_T said:

good post.  agree with nearly all of this.

I'm not certain about jameson williams.   hes boom or bust for me.    If hes gonna break out I think it likely needs to happen this year.    I loved his talent at the time he was drafted, but due to his size, I was concerned about how he'd deal with the Jam at the line.  to some extent I'm still concerned about it.   I have not seen enough of him to say I'm satisfied with this.   and if he doesnt make it, this is likely the reason why (this or him doing something else stupid to keep himself off the field)

but provided hes fully recovered from his ACL surgery, I dont have a whole lot of other concerns.   so even with the concerns noted above, I dont mind picking him up late in the draft if hes still on the board.

Yeah, this year is a make or break year for him. He has a lot of speed and you are right about getting jammed at the line. I think, with so many other weapons on that offense; he will get a couple long TDs, that could make the difference in fantasy for points. Good luck in your drafts! He is like a seasoned rookie now with a fresh slate because of the injury and gambling suspension. Rofl

[Ray_T 673]

20 hours ago, Super Cubs said:

As a Texan fan I can honestly say I did not see his 3rd year breakout coming.  Not saying he was going to be  a bust, but a good enough WR not really a breakout candidate. He was often injured in 2022 missing the several games and I never saw anything to make me think he would be more than average at best.  I was curious as to what you saw that I missed.  

there are a couple signs I look for when looking purely at stats.

rookies are noted for their inconsistent play, but if the talent is there, they will still occasionally produce.

Nico, being a 3rd round pick is a guy who you think may develop into a player, but you are not sure about him.     so when I looked I noted as a rookie he had a couple of decent games with a good average yards per catch.  one game with double digit targets (week 14).   while the catch rate wasnt high, he also didnt have great QB play (david Mills/tyrod Taylor)   but week 14 and 18 he had 10 and 8 targets respectively meaning hes either open or (at the very least) hes where hes supposed to be at the time the read was made.   

and he was rewarded with some reasonable stats.    but not enough to project a breakout in 2022

so we go into 2022's game log..... once again with Mills at QB its tough to expect much.

he showed some signs early.  in week 2 targeted 9 times but got 4 catches for 58 yards.  had a couple middling games up to week 5 where he was averaging about 50-60 yards per game.  not bad on limited targets    it doesnt look like much but 60 yards a game works out to 1000 yards over 17 games played  so this is decent production with backup calibre QB.

then he got hurt.

while his production was mediocre upon his return, 49, 48, 44 yard games and a 35 yard game, but look at the high # of targets.   even with subpar QB play, you dont get that number of targets at the NFL level unless you are doing something right.   dude is getting open enough to warrant that many targets, its usually only a matter of time until the production follows.  I only watched a couple of his games, but there were a few times he was targeted and the ball was nowhere close to being where it needed to be.  if it had I'm pretty sure his stats would have been more in line with where you want it to be (at least in the games I watched)  

even so, with a smallish sample size I was reasonably certain with a better QB (and better health) there is a chance he may have broken out in year 2.  but its hard to say for sure.

year 3.  I will admit I was a big believer in the new guy at QB (Stroud)  I was sure the QB play would be better than wed seen the last 2 years.  I anticipated this kid was ripe for a breakout.   if you refer to the July Mock on fftoday, I took this kid in round 13 and was happy to get him. 

So I'm not just making stuff up.  I really liked the kid.  and truly felt with good QB play hed be better.  as it turns out he wasnt just better,  he was a whole lot better.   Even better than I thought he'd be.

so the signs were there.   Maybe I got a little lucky in that I noticed the things I did when watching the small sample size of games, but I felt he passed the eye test to me (which sealed it)

I took him in every draft/auction I could last year and was well rewarded.

 

 

[Ray_T 673]

23 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Nobody is worried about Wilson. He already broke out. He's had 1,000+ yards the last 2 seasons with stiffs as QBs. 

He's extremely undervalued right now 

what is his ADP looking like?

[weepaws 2,693]

22 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

what is his ADP looking like?

Early 2nd.  That’s not undervalued. 

[Maximum Overkill 1,125]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Early 2nd.  That’s not undervalued. 

He's a first rounder all day. It's a joke that Olave is going higher. 

[weepaws 2,693]

It would be if indeed Olave is going higher.  All the ADP I’m seeing in ppr/half/ non ppr,  have Wilson ADP higher. 

14th/20th non ppr,  11th/20th ppr, 11th/18th half ppr, I don’t see undervalue when it comes to Wilson.  I like Wilson value just find , I hope he stays put, so if I have a late pick he could mine.  

Thanks. 

[Ray_T 673]

3 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

He's a first rounder all day. It's a joke that Olave is going higher. 

its because of Rodgers risk of injury and his age.

if they have to go with a backup, his numbers drop.    given the risks, I think hes about where he should be (give or take)

[cmh6476 834]

I don't think nico is on the verge of breaking out.   Dude just made a haul.  He's done arrived. 

 

 

[Ray_T 673]

to be clear, a breakout candidate isnt someone who got 1000 yards or more last year.

for me a breakout candidate is someone who got 500-750 yards (or less) last year and bursts on to get 1000 yards or more the following year.   so we are looking at at least a 30% increase in production year over year.

if a young guy gets 850-900 yards a boost to 1000 yards isnt really a breakout.  its likely an expected progression.   if that playre gets 1200 yards then I'd say fine, thats a breakout.

 

[Maximum Overkill 1,125]

3 hours ago, Ray_T said:

to be clear, a breakout candidate isnt someone who got 1000 yards or more last year.

for me a breakout candidate is someone who got 500-750 yards (or less) last year and bursts on to get 1000 yards or more the following year.   so we are looking at at least a 30% increase in production year over year.

if a young guy gets 850-900 yards a boost to 1000 yards isnt really a breakout.  its likely an expected progression.   if that playre gets 1200 yards then I'd say fine, thats a breakout.

 

481 to 1297 yards. Good Lord, that's a breakout if there ever was one. 

2022 - 37 Receptions, 481 Yards 

2023 - 80 Receptions, 1,297 Yards 

[Ray_T 673]

1 hour ago, Maximum Overkill said:

481 to 1297 yards. Good Lord, that's a breakout if there ever was one. 

2022 - 37 Receptions, 481 Yards 

2023 - 80 Receptions, 1,297 Yards 

agreed.

but he is not a breakout candidate anymore.  he has already broken out.

 

[Maximum Overkill 1,125]

23 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

agreed.

but he is not a breakout candidate anymore.  he has already broken out.

 

Agree, hopefully he can keep it up. 

[Showboat 152]

If not a break-out candidate, maybe he is a regression candidate.   

[Maximum Overkill 1,125]

3 hours ago, Showboat said:

If not a break-out candidate, maybe he is a regression candidate.   

This to