Instant Fantasy Analysis - WR Sterling Shepard, Giants

[The Football Guru 221]

In my draft profiles, I stated Shepard's best fit would be in a quick-hitting passing game, and it is hard to find an offense that gets the ball out of the quarterback's hands quicker than New York under new head coach Ben McAdoo. After years of inconsistency from Rueben Randle, New York gets a feisty competitor in the Oklahoma product. Given the uncertainty surrounding Victor Cruz, Shepard gives the Giants someone who is well-equipped to be the long-term answer in the slot, meaning Cruz's return to 100 percent will be more of a bonus than a necessity. Shepard draws comparisons to Kendall Wright, Randall Cobb and Tyler Lockett - all warranted - and should be instant fantasy contributor in all leagues in large part because he can win in one-on-one coverage and will benefit from all the attention Odell Beckham Jr. attracts. Shepard should be considered as a low-end WR3 in redraft leagues, and right behind Corey Coleman and Josh Doctson in the pecking order at receiver in rookie drafts.

[giraldi02 474]

1.04 IMO for rookies

[stonewall 647]

I despise the Sooners.....but this kid is gonna be good.

 

Really good.

[Too Loud 5]

2 posts on the best product of the draft not named Zeke?

 

Coleman is a Brown.

Treadwell has Teddy as his QB

Doctson is just as good option as Shep, but I give shep the nod in ppr.

 

I want points in fantasy football, not hype or perceived value. Shep will be the PPR beast ala Cobb to McAdoo in this draft.

 

Good safe huge upside pick .

[giraldi02 474]

For rookie WR's, I have Shepard in a near identical tie with Michael Thomas prior to the draft as 1a and 1b.

 

Shepard is the best route runner in this year's class. The ultimate question as it pertains to this season will be Victor Cruz's health. But I could see Shepard putting up Jordan Matthews' rookie season-type numbers in the slot.

[Little Big Head 6]

I think Shepperd will have the best season of all the rookie WRs. Like his game and love his fit in the Giants offense

[the spanker 28]

In ppr leagues, is he a WR2? I have no faith in Cruz doing much this year.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,883]

In ppr leagues, is he a WR2? I have no faith in Cruz doing much this year.

I wouldnt count on that

[rholio 339]

In ppr leagues, is he a WR2? I have no faith in Cruz doing much this year.

 

Depending on the size of the league, he's likely a WR 4 or WR 5.

[Kopy 534]

The hype is really starting to ramp up with this kid. I wouldn't be surprised to to him be the first WR taken at this rate.

1.2 maybe

[Ray_T 718]

The hype is really starting to ramp up with this kid. I wouldn't be surprised to to him be the first WR taken at this rate.

1.2 maybe

only in PPR leagues. Standard leagues hes probably still a WR3 or WR4.

 

Keep in mind, there are not a lot of slot receivers who beat 1000 yards in a season, and this kid is still a rookie.

 

so early in his career, he will generate most of his value with lots of catches for short yardage. Good for PPR. mediocre for standard leagues.

[ralphster 274]

I've been through 3 rookie drafts and he's been in the 7-12 range in each. He landed in a great place but he's not going over Doctson, Treadwell, Coleman or Thomas that I've seen.

[Ray_T 718]

I've been through 3 rookie drafts and he's been in the 7-12 range in each. He landed in a great place but he's not going over Doctson, Treadwell, Coleman or Thomas that I've seen.

nor should he.

 

good player, but not in the same ballpark as these guys.

[giraldi02 474]

nor should he.

 

good player, but not in the same ballpark as these guys.

 

He'll be the best rookie WR this season for fantasy purposes, and it won't even be close

[polecatt 471]

He's probably as good a rookie prospect outside of Zeke as there is this year.

He steps into a great situation with a pass heavy offense with a top QB.

Victor Cruz was outstanding in a similar role. I don't know that's how it will play out but it's a good gauge.

Rookie WRs can be hard to judge making the college to pro jump but he should have a great opportunity to succeed even as a rookie.

[Ray_T 718]

 

He'll be the best rookie WR this season for fantasy purposes, and it won't even be close

That is a brave prediction.

[tanatastic 2,062]

Remember guys it was equally dumb to say that a rookie who was to miss the first quarter of the season and playing with Eli manning coming off a disaster of a season was going to make an impact as well. Obj rookie year.

[giraldi02 474]

That is a brave prediction.

 

I think it's a relatively safe prediction personally.

 

Under Ben McAdoo, Eli Manning has averaged 4,423 yards, 32 touchdowns, and 14 INTs. He's completed 62.8% of his passes, and he has career 59.3 completion percentage. This is while attempting over 600 passing attempts both seasons.

 

Prior to McAdoo, Manning completed 60.0+% of his passes in a season four of his first 10 years as a pro. Only two of those four seasons Eli threw the ball more than 510 times.

 

The opportunity is there for Shepard. The NFC East by and large has some weak defenses statistically.

 

Give OBJ his 100 catches on 160 targets. Give him 1,500 yards and 14 TDs.

 

There's still 440 remaining targets, another 2,500-3,000 passing yards, and 15-20 TDs remaining. I don't see how Shepard cannot surpass Rueben Randle's production from a year ago.

 

There's also far less competition for production from Shepard to the other rookie WRs.

 

The Saints spread the ball around. There's already Cooks, Snead, and Fleener. I love Michael Thomas and think he's likely one of the better, if not best, complete wide receivers in this class, but it's an uphill climb for him to establish himself in the offense out of the gates.

 

The Vikings don't throw the ball that much. Treadwell, as good of a prospect as he is, isn't going to catch 70 passes his rookie year IMHO.

 

Doctson needs to get healthy and get on the field. Crowder, Jackson, and Garcon aren't flashy names, but they're proven veterans that know the offense. For a rookie to miss OTA's/Minicamp, he's going to be behind the curve to start.

 

Caroo has Parker, Stills, and Landry to fight against.

 

Corey Coleman has uncertainty at quarterback, but could surprise people given the lack of depth at WR for the Browns.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,883]

Cruz is still expected back this year. I just don't think there are enough targets for him to be good if Cruz plays

[remote controller 143]

He's probably as good a rookie prospect outside of Zeke as there is this year.

He steps into a great situation with a pass heavy offense with a top QB.

Victor Cruz was outstanding in a similar role. I don't know that's how it will play out but it's a good gauge.

Rookie WRs can be hard to judge making the college to pro jump but he should have a great opportunity to succeed even as a rookie.

It seems to me most of Cruz's damage was done getting deep and Eli throwing the rainbow???

[remote controller 143]

Cruz is still expected back this year. I just don't think there are enough targets for him to be good if Cruz plays

Cruz will streak. I see plenty of 3 receiver sets anyway, and Shepard taking many of those grabs they were hitting to the TE the first part of the season.

[nobody 2,461]

I don't get why everyone thinks the Giants are such a great situation for shepard. They usually don't support 2 fantasy receivers. Their wr2 is usually around 800-900 yards, and it's not like he's going to be a red zone threat. I think he shapes up to be a better real football player than fantasy asset.

[giraldi02 474]

I don't get why everyone thinks the Giants are such a great situation for shepard. They usually don't support 2 fantasy receivers. Their wr2 is usually around 800-900 yards, and it's not like he's going to be a red zone threat. I think he shapes up to be a better real football player than fantasy asset.

 

Only 25 receivers topped 1,000 receiving yards last year, and only 41 receivers topped 800 yards. So in a 12-team league, you're looking at the edge of WR3 numbers for yardage. I think that's a pretty nice outlook for a rookie in an uptempo offense (NYG ranked 10th in NFL in offensive plays run last year).

 

The Giants attempted the 6th most passes last season. They had the 9th most in 2014. Opportunity breeds success. In regards to this offense, the tenure of McAdoo is as far back as you can go to look at history of the team's WR2.

 

Seeing that Cruz was hurt, and the rest of the supporting cast likely would do better flipping burgers or working at a call-center, I'm not too discouraged about Shepard's outlook.

[weepaws 3,006]

In and out Burger

 

I have Shepard has a #4 wr at this time .

[nobody 2,461]

Okay, but being a borderline wr3/wr4 isn't the same as "best rookie WR for fantasy purposes and it won't even be close" especially since Coleman is stepping into the number 1 WR role on a hue Jackson team and he'll probably get force fed, and Michael Thomas will probably overtake snead's production at some point this season taking colston's targets. With Treadwell's run after catch skills, he'll probably catch 40 balls on slants and screens alone. If Goff clicks with cooper or thomas, one of those guys could turn into something.

[remote controller 143]

Coleman takes a hit on my rankings for being a Brown. #1 Wr on a horrible team is not necessarily a front row ticket.

[giraldi02 474]

Okay, but being a borderline wr3/wr4 isn't the same as "best rookie WR for fantasy purposes and it won't even be close" especially since Coleman is stepping into the number 1 WR role on a hue Jackson team and he'll probably get force fed, and Michael Thomas will probably overtake snead's production at some point this season taking colston's targets. With Treadwell's run after catch skills, he'll probably catch 40 balls on slants and screens alone. If Goff clicks with cooper or thomas, one of those guys could turn into something.

 

I stated "WR3 numbers for yardage". If Shepard catches 65-75 passes (which he's more than capable of) for 850 yards and 5 TDs, he's going to be the lead rookie WR...by a lot.

 

Additionally, Shepard's red zone abilities are getting overlooked a bit. He was targeted seven times in the red zone last season, catching five TDs. He had a 41" vertical (the best among this class at the combine). His precise route-running and ability to create space is going to make him a very effective weapon for a team that finished as the 4th worst RZ team in the NFL last season.

[nobody 2,461]

Coleman takes a hit on my rankings for being a Brown. #1 Wr on a horrible team is not necessarily a front row ticket.

Me too. I drafted Doctson over him for that reason, but volume is king. I would take Coleman over Shepard in a heartbeat.

[nobody 2,461]

I stated "WR3 numbers for yardage". If Shepard catches 65-75 passes (which he's more than capable of) for 850 yards and 5 TDs, he's going to be the lead rookie WR...by a lot.

Additionally, Shepard's red zone abilities are getting overlooked a bit. He was targeted seven times in the red zone last season, catching five TDs. He had a 41" vertical (the best among this class at the combine). His precise route-running and ability to create space is going to make him a very effective weapon for a team that finished as the 4th worst RZ team in the NFL last season.

 

 

He's 195 pounds. Vertical doesn't matter when you're getting jammed at the line of scrimmage. The hype is getting out of hand.

[giraldi02 474]

He's 195 pounds. Vertical doesn't matter when you're getting jammed at the line of scrimmage. The hype is getting out of hand.

 

Allen Hurns is 195 pounds too. You're ranking players on their weight?

[nobody 2,461]

Bigger players are more effective in the red zone. We were talking about red zone.

[giraldi02 474]

He's 195 pounds. Vertical doesn't matter when you're getting jammed at the line of scrimmage. The hype is getting out of hand.

 

 

Bigger players are more effective in the red zone. We were talking about red zone.

 

My Allen Hurns comment was a response to your first statement, and yes it is still applicable to the red zone.

 

Hurns caught five touchdowns inside the 20, three of which were inside the ten yard line. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HurnAl01/red-zone-receiving-plays/2015

 

He's the same weight but nearly five inches taller so that'd make him slightly leaner than Shepard. It didn't stop him from producing in that area of the field, with a quarterback that isn't as good as Eli Manning. Sure his height gives him an added benefit for jump balls, but press coverage is still going to affect him in nearly the same manner.

 

Randall Cobb is 5'10" and 191 pounds. So slightly smaller than Shepard. Cobb produced heavily in the red zone last season. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CobbRa00/red-zone-receiving-plays/2015

 

Several small receivers produce in the red zone. Edelman, Cobb, John Brown, etc. While bigger players certainly get a lion's share of the targets, look at the smaller guys that are near the top of the targets/receptions list here. Most are stellar route runners. You're not going to find many people saying that Shepard is not among the top two or three route runners in this class. He has the ability to overcompensate for his lack of elite size.

 

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2015/redzone-receiving.htm

 

 

 

[remote controller 143]

He's 195 pounds. Vertical doesn't matter when you're getting jammed at the line of scrimmage. The hype is getting out of hand.

He does struggle with physical players and must figure out how to get off clean. They will move him all over to aid that, and the biggest threats will be covering OBJ.

[nobody 2,461]

Hey look, you're dug in. To borrow a concept from Colin cowherd, you want to be right. You don't care about getting it right.

 

Yeah Cobb was the only pass catcher on the packers offense worth a shìt last year, so he was a red zone target by default. If you want to believe a rookie slot receiver that at best will be the 2nd option on a team that hardly ever produces 2 fantasy relevant receivers is going to be a big factor this year and a red zone machine, feel free to do that. No matter what anyone believes, whatever is going to happen is still going to happen.

 

He's probably going to come in at 750 and 3 TDs. I get you think he's some transcendent talent, but he's going to need to be to get out of that neighborhood.

[remote controller 143]

I see 80+ for 800+ and 8 td's for him myself. Edited to say "potential" in this offense he was picked to play in.

[giraldi02 474]

Hey look, you're dug in. To borrow a concept from Colin cowherd, you want to be right. You don't care about getting it right.

 

...

 

I get you think he's some transcendent talent, but he's going to need to be to get out of that neighborhood.

 

I don't care about getting it right, yet I've provided plenty of examples throughout this thread to back my stance why I feel he'll be productive out of the gates.

I don't know where I insinuated he's a transcendent talent. But to overlook the fact that he's one of the, if not THE, best route runners in this class is simply not doing your homework on the guy.

 

The only rookie I might concede that title to is Michael Thomas, but I'm not willing to rank him higher than Shepard in redraft because the Saints spread the ball and there's plenty of mouths to feed in that offense, where Shepard only has to beat out a gimpy Victor Cruz. Both offenses are going to throw the ball 600+ times. That's more than the Vikings, that's more than the Browns.

 

I'll take talent over situation nine times out of ten, particularly when you're discussing the 40th WR off the board. I don't care if I'm changing someone's mind in their personal rankings. If I can't heap constructive prognostications on Shepard in the Sterling Shepard thread, where would you recommend me doing so? Because his hype is only going to increase as the offseason reaches a conclusion.

[nobody 2,461]

Let's say Manning completes 400 passes which he's never done in his entire career.

 

100 to OBJ

80 cumulative to the backs

70 to some combination of the tightends

Let's say another 20 are eaten up by random receivers like Preston Parker and Dwayne Harris or whatever.

 

So that leaves 130 to spread around to Shepard, Cruz, and Randle, so how many catches do we think Cruz and Randle are going to get?. 60 combined? So that leaves 70 catches for Shepard assuming he becomes the number 2. So he'll be playing out of the slot, so he'll probably average about 11ish yards per catch, so that's 770 yards, so now he needs TDs. Now he's a smallish slot receiver that has trouble versus press coverage, so he won't be a redzone threat until he figures that part of his game out. He's not a burner, so he won't be a deep threat necessarily. Where are the TDs going to come from.

 

Are they going to take away the tightend targets and give them to Shepard? Cruz or Randle will definitely be playing on the outside, so they're going to be involved. What am I missing?

 

So for Shepard to deserve all this hype Shepard has to:

 

1. Beat out Cruz as the number 2 option

2. Have Manning throw for a career high in completions

3. Have the offense cut back tightend and\or runningback targets significantly and give them all to Shepard and not OBJ or Cruz.

4. He has to become a red zone threat.

 

I doubt all of that is going to happen. He'll just be another run of the mill rookie putting up bye week filler type numbers.

 

Oh, and what happens if they actually find a running game this year?

[remote controller 143]

Randle is an Eagle, and Shepard is the listed starter. Cruz is practicing on his own and not working with the team yet. He won't really affect Shepard.

 

McAdoo has been there two seasons and in those two season Eli has thrown over 600 passes.

 

I will say that you have a much better chance of being right in this situation beings he's a rookie Wr. I just feel Shepard is in a great situation and a target of mine this season. You bring up all good points.

[Ray_T 718]

 

I stated "WR3 numbers for yardage". If Shepard catches 65-75 passes (which he's more than capable of) for 850 yards and 5 TDs, he's going to be the lead rookie WR...by a lot.

 

Additionally, Shepard's red zone abilities are getting overlooked a bit. He was targeted seven times in the red zone last season, catching five TDs. He had a 41" vertical (the best among this class at the combine). His precise route-running and ability to create space is going to make him a very effective weapon for a team that finished as the 4th worst RZ team in the NFL last season.

ok so you are talking PPR. Most here dont play PPR. Most play standard rules. (someone correct me if Im wrong)

 

this is why you are finding disagreement here.

 

Slot receivers are considerably more valuable in a PPR format. Especially in a quick hitting offense like what the Giants run.

 

Standard leagues are a whole different ballgame.

[remote controller 143]

ok so you are talking PPR. Most here dont play PPR. Most play standard rules. (someone correct me if Im wrong)

 

this is why you are finding disagreement here.

 

Slot receivers are considerably more valuable in a PPR format. Especially in a quick hitting offense like what the Giants run.

 

Standard leagues are a whole different ballgame.

My guess would be that ppr is more standard now then non???