GobbleDog 907 Posted May 1, 2018 1. Firenze Fire............... 50-1 2. Free Drop Billy........... 30-1 3. Promises Fulfilled...... 30-1 4. Flameaway................ 30-1 5. Audible........................ 8-1 6. Good Magic............... 12-1 7. Justify.......................... 3-1 8. Lone Sailor................ 50-1 9. Hofburg..................... 20-1 10. My Boy Jack........... 20-1 11. Bolt d'Oro.................. 8-1 12. Enticed.................... 30-1 13. Bravazo.................. 50-1 14. Mendelssohn............ 5-1 15. Instilled Regard...... 50-1 16. Magnum Moon......... 6-1 17. Solomini................. 30-1 18. Vino Rosso..............12-1 19. Noble Indy.............. 30-1 20. Combatant............. 50-1 ..................................................................................... After a 30+ year drought, the favorite has won the Kentucky Derby the last 5 straight years. Bastards. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
supermike80 1,468 Posted May 1, 2018 Biggest favorite is only 3-1?? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
shotsup 832 Posted May 2, 2018 Biggest favorite is only 3-1?? That's a normal opening favorite Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorthernVike 2,082 Posted May 2, 2018 I've always wanted to name a horse Glue Factory. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
supermike80 1,468 Posted May 2, 2018 That's a normal opening favoriteOk. I. Used to 5-2 or 7-5 or whatever Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
shotsup 832 Posted May 2, 2018 Ok. I. Used to 5-2 or 7-5 or whatever Will probably be on Saturday Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Baker Boy 1,607 Posted May 2, 2018 Biggest favorite is only 3-1??The Favorite has won the last five KD. 7 Justify 5 Audible 14 Mendelssohn Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SenatorRock 708 Posted May 2, 2018 We want Gronk! We want Gronk! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GobbleDog 907 Posted May 2, 2018 We want Gronk! We want Gronk! Don't know what happened the horse "Gronkowski" which everyone thought would race in the Derby six months ago. Gronk - the player who's also part owner, reportedly said he wanted to ride that horse someday.... before a reporter pointed out that thoroughbreds aren't used to carrying more than 125 pounds. Maybe he did ride it. And killed it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Vince44 202 Posted May 2, 2018 Let it Ride starring Richard Dreyfuss. Great gambling movie at the race track. Kentucky Derby weekend always makes me wanna watch that terrific comedy again. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BunnysBastatrds 2,054 Posted May 2, 2018 The bar I go to has a few bookies that eat this sh!t up. There's twenty flat screens in the joint and two of them are dedicated to races around the country. They are at one end of the bar and we are at our end. When they are there and a race comes on, we can't talk over them. We just listen to that two minutes race. My friend Todd named them "3 in the 4" crowd. It's stuck. When they win, free drinks. One has a Saudi friend and three partners in a race for the KD. Saturday is going to be fun. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wiffleball 4,730 Posted May 2, 2018 I don't remember a field like this ever. wasn't that long ago when it was pretty damn rare to be 50 to 1. From memory, what? Giacomo and mine that bird? And that was over like 10 years. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bandrus1 413 Posted May 2, 2018 Don't know what happened the horse "Gronkowski" which everyone thought would race in the Derby six months ago. Gronk - the player who's also part owner, reportedly said he wanted to ride that horse someday.... before a reporter pointed out that thoroughbreds aren't used to carrying more than 125 pounds. Maybe he did ride it. And killed it. The horse had a fever and was pulled from the race Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GobbleDog 907 Posted May 2, 2018 I don't remember a field like this ever. wasn't that long ago when it was pretty damn rare to be 50 to 1. From memory, what? Giacomo and mine that bird? And that was over like 10 years.Per Wiki, two horses went off at 50-1 last year and two the year before. Four in 2015. There does seem to be more than usual now, but that'll change by post time. Mine That Bird in 2009 was a 50-1 winner. Most amazing ride of all time. Dead last place until final turn... won by 6 lengths. $1 Trifecta paid $21,000 and $1 Superfecta paid $280,000! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
edjr 6,136 Posted May 2, 2018 Should I do a kentucky derby pool? $5 or $10 per horse, random draw? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
shotsup 832 Posted May 2, 2018 The bar I go to has a few bookies that eat this sh!t up. There's twenty flat screens in the joint and two of them are dedicated to races around the country. They are at one end of the bar and we are at our end. When they are there and a race comes on, we can't talk over them. We just listen to that two minutes race. . My local evolved to the same thing. A mile from Belmont Park and an OTB across the street. Bookies. Phone accounts. Apps. Betting Paradise. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
patweisers44 732 Posted May 2, 2018 Vino Rosso not showing much in workouts leading up to the race, which is his M.O. before he performs well.. Don't like the post position, but I like the 12-1. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
patweisers44 732 Posted May 2, 2018 Should I do a kentucky derby pool? $5 or $10 per horse, random draw? In. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
patweisers44 732 Posted May 2, 2018 Don't bet the chalk. Despite the favorite winning like 4 or 5 years in a row, it wont happen this year...I just pulled Justify in our office drawing. :horsecack: Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GobbleDog 907 Posted May 2, 2018 Last year, I picked the Kentucky Derby winner!!! In 2016, my horse took 2nd and in 2015 my horse took 2nd. I'm on a roll! So here we go... same old qualifiers - Eliminate horses not finishing in the top 2 in the five major prep races. Eliminate all horses not bred in the great state of Kentucky. Say hello to 80% of all Derby winners over past 75+ years. Santa Anita Derby 1. Justify (4-5) 2. Bolt d'Oro (1-1) Arkansas Derby 1. Magnum Moon (4-5) 2. Quip (6-1) Not entered in Derby Blue Grass 1. Good Magic (8-5) 2. Flameaway (5-1) Born in Ontario Florida Derby 1. Audible (8-1) Born in New York 2. Hofburg (8-1) Wood Memorial 1. Vino Rosso (4-1) 2. Enticed (6-5) ......................................................................... Down to 7 horses. Toss out any horse that didn't race as a 2 year old... aka "The Apollo Curse" The last horse to do it - Apollo in.... 18-focking-82. Say goodbye Justify and Magnum Moon. ......................................................................... Down to 5. Time for some arbitrary eliminations. Hofburg.... only 1 stakes race and took 2nd place at high odds. Also, similar to the Apollo Curse, it's very rare if a horse didn't WIN a race as a 2 year old. Out. Vino Rosso.... nobody wins back to back Derby's and Vino is ridden by last year's winning jockey John Velazquez. Starting from the #18 gate... good luck. Out. Enticed.... ridden by Junior Alvarado... never raced a Derby. Also distance issues. ............................................................................... That leaves Bolt d'Oro and Good Magic. The Blue Grass winner hasn't won the Derby since 1991 and reportedly Good Magic's competition wasn't all that. On the other hand, Bolt d'Oro is one of the most talented horses in the race. Has Grade I and Grade II wins, good Beyer rating, and definitely passes the eye test. Which is why Bolt d'Oro is my ***Official Derby Winner***. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TimmySmith 2,782 Posted May 3, 2018 Past Performances. http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Derby18.pdf Who won't win or be in the money 21 15 14 13 12 9 10 8 4 3 2 1 Horses that can finish in the money 20 19 18 17 11 7 6 5 Wont win 20 19 17 11 Superfecta 18 7 6 5 Vin Rosso Justify Good Magic Audible Winner 5 Audible Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hardcore troubadour 13,676 Posted May 3, 2018 Last year, I picked the Kentucky Derby winner!!! In 2016, my horse took 2nd and in 2015 my horse took 2nd. I'm on a roll! So here we go... same old qualifiers - Eliminate horses not finishing in the top 2 in the five major prep races. Eliminate all horses not bred in the great state of Kentucky. Say hello to 80% of all Derby winners over past 75+ years. Santa Anita Derby 1. Justify (4-5) 2. Bolt d'Oro (1-1) Arkansas Derby 1. Magnum Moon (4-5) 2. Quip (6-1) Not entered in Derby Blue Grass 1. Good Magic (8-5) 2. Flameaway (5-1) Born in Ontario Florida Derby 1. Audible (8-1) Born in New York 2. Hofburg (8-1) Wood Memorial 1. Vino Rosso (4-1) 2. Enticed (6-5) ......................................................................... Down to 7 horses. Toss out any horse that didn't race as a 2 year old... aka "The Apollo Curse" The last horse to do it - Apollo in.... 18-focking-82. Say goodbye Justify and Magnum Moon. ......................................................................... Down to 5. Time for some arbitrary eliminations. Hofburg.... only 1 stakes race and took 2nd place at high odds. Also, similar to the Apollo Curse, it's very rare if a horse didn't WIN a race as a 2 year old. Out. Vino Rosso.... nobody wins back to back Derby's and Vino is ridden by last year's winning jockey John Velazquez. Starting from the #18 gate... good luck. Out. Enticed.... ridden by Junior Alvarado... never raced a Derby. Also distance issues. ............................................................................... That leaves Bolt d'Oro and Good Magic. The Blue Grass winner hasn't won the Derby since 1991 and reportedly Good Magic's competition wasn't all that. On the other hand, Bolt d'Oro is one of the most talented horses in the race. Has Grade I and Grade II wins, good Beyer rating, and definitely passes the eye test. Which is why Bolt d'Oro is my ***Official Derby Winner***. That's good stuff. Thanks! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
iam90sbaby 2,265 Posted May 3, 2018 All of my family is from Louisville (St. Matthews) - my uncle and a lot of the locals favorite in their neighborhood is Magnum Moon. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BufordT 392 Posted May 4, 2018 Good stuff Gobble. And thanks Timmy for the PP's. Didn't realize the Wood Memorial was downgraded to a G2 stakes. The Wood was a huge race back in the day. Just scanning the pp's it looks like a more top heavy race than usual between Audible, Justify, Bolt d'oro and Mendelssohn. Mendoelssohn responded awesomely in his only start on dirt overseas. OBrien/Moore combo have done recent damage in the Breeder's Cup. Justify will be one of the bigger stars, though, if he can win the TC. Only knock is he's only run 3 races. I'll have about $100 worth of exacta and trifecta combinations on the #'s 5, 7, 9, 10, 11, 14 and 19, keying mostly 7, 10 & 14. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TimmySmith 2,782 Posted May 4, 2018 Last 20 years winners and month of foal January 0 February 9 March 5 April 5 May 1 This year HORSE DATE INDEX MY BOY JACK 1/26 1.77 BRAVAZO 1/29 2.75 GRONKOWSKI 2/1 3.00 HOFBURG 2/11 2.78 AUDIBLE 2/19 5.00 QUIP 2/19 3.00 FLAMEAWAY 2/28 3.00 GOOD MAGIC 3/1 3.40 BOLT D'ORO 3/17 3.00 FIRENZE FIRE 3/17 4.14 ENTICED 3/23 3.00 JUSTIFY 3/28 3.00 VINO ROSSO 3/29 3.57 LONE SAILOR 3/30 2.71 NOBLE INDY 3/31 3.00 SOLOMINI 4/29 3.00 COMBATANT 5/2 2.60 FREE DROP BILLY 5/3 1.74 MAGNUM MOON 5/9 3.27 PROMISES FULFILLED 5/11 9.00 MENDELSSOHN 5/17 1.80 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Old School 360 Posted May 5, 2018 Last year, I picked the Kentucky Derby winner!!! In 2016, my horse took 2nd and in 2015 my horse took 2nd. I'm on a roll! So here we go... same old qualifiers - Eliminate horses not finishing in the top 2 in the five major prep races. Eliminate all horses not bred in the great state of Kentucky. Say hello to 80% of all Derby winners over past 75+ years. Santa Anita Derby 1. Justify (4-5) 2. Bolt d'Oro (1-1) Arkansas Derby 1. Magnum Moon (4-5) 2. Quip (6-1) Not entered in Derby Blue Grass 1. Good Magic (8-5) 2. Flameaway (5-1) Born in Ontario Florida Derby 1. Audible (8-1) Born in New York 2. Hofburg (8-1) Wood Memorial 1. Vino Rosso (4-1) 2. Enticed (6-5) ......................................................................... Down to 7 horses. Toss out any horse that didn't race as a 2 year old... aka "The Apollo Curse" The last horse to do it - Apollo in.... 18-focking-82. Say goodbye Justify and Magnum Moon. ......................................................................... Down to 5. Time for some arbitrary eliminations. Hofburg.... only 1 stakes race and took 2nd place at high odds. Also, similar to the Apollo Curse, it's very rare if a horse didn't WIN a race as a 2 year old. Out. Vino Rosso.... nobody wins back to back Derby's and Vino is ridden by last year's winning jockey John Velazquez. Starting from the #18 gate... good luck. Out. Enticed.... ridden by Junior Alvarado... never raced a Derby. Also distance issues. ............................................................................... That leaves Bolt d'Oro and Good Magic. The Blue Grass winner hasn't won the Derby since 1991 and reportedly Good Magic's competition wasn't all that. On the other hand, Bolt d'Oro is one of the most talented horses in the race. Has Grade I and Grade II wins, good Beyer rating, and definitely passes the eye test. Which is why Bolt d'Oro is my ***Official Derby Winner***. Thats a pretty good review. Good Magic may be a good add to exotics- Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tubby_mcgee 695 Posted May 5, 2018 I know he is the favorite...but...jeez...the more I read on Justify....I think he will win it...if he is in the clear and within 5 lengths of the lead midway on the first turn. Obviously, they won't let me wait to bet until that point...so....I'll go. 1.) Justify over 2.) Vino Rosso/Good Magic 3.) Vinny Rosso/Good Magic/My Boy Jack/Bolt D'Oro Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Old School 360 Posted May 5, 2018 I know he is the favorite...but...jeez...the more I read on Justify....I think he will win it...if he is in the clear and within 5 lengths of the lead midway on the first turn. Obviously, they won't let me wait to bet until that point...so....I'll go. 1.) Justify over 2.) Vino Rosso/Good Magic 3.) Vinny Rosso/Good Magic/My Boy Jack/Bolt D'Oro I hate betting the fav in a race this big- but when the fav is this strong, you almost have to have him in some action.And, leave him out. He either runs hard and nails it- or hes spent and out of the money. Will key Justify in an Exacta Box Will play another Exacta Box without Justify Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Old School 360 Posted May 5, 2018 Big move this morning The 10- My Boy Jack has been bet down from 30-1 down to 5-1 Hes a strong closer and could have a big finish Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
listen2me 23 1,686 Posted May 5, 2018 Big move this morning The 10- My Boy Jack has been bet down from 30-1 down to 5-1 Hes a strong closer and could have a big finish This was my horse but I had no real reason other than I liked the name. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
shotsup 832 Posted May 5, 2018 This was my horse but I had no real reason other than I liked the name. Unless you have a son named Jack you are a pedophile. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Old School 360 Posted May 5, 2018 Damn- rambling on solo style reminiscent of a GF post. Dinked around a little today Pre Derby Race 9 DD 3 to the 8 Race 10 DD 8 to the 1,10 Race 9 Pick 3- 3 to the 8 to the 1,10 Race 10 Pick 3- 8 to the 10 to the 6,7 Derby W & P #6 Good Magic Exacta- Key the 7 w 5,6,10 Exacta box - 5,6,10 Tri-box- 5,6,10 Tri- key #6 w 5,7,10,11,18 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
listen2me 23 1,686 Posted May 5, 2018 Unless you have a son named Jack you are a pedophile. I had a dog named Jack. Does that count? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
shotsup 832 Posted May 5, 2018 I had a dog named Jack. Does that count? Yes - I was going to say son or pet. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
shotsup 832 Posted May 5, 2018 Where do you bet ? I live a mile from Belmont Have an OTB literally down the block. But I can sit on the couch and bet on the Twin Spires app. For the derby I'll go to OTB and watch at the bar across the street. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Old School 360 Posted May 5, 2018 Where do you bet ? I live a mile from Belmont Have an OTB literally down the block. But I can sit on the couch and bet on the Twin Spires app. For the derby I'll go to OTB and watch at the bar across the street. In theory- I cant do online betting in this state. So- theoretically- Id need a friend to place the action in my honor. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Alias Detective 1,279 Posted May 5, 2018 Tri box 6,11,13 $2 tri box = $12 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cloaca du jour 2,115 Posted May 5, 2018 Hoffburg on a sloppy track!! Man the racial diversity of this event has really grown!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites