Late round 1 draft strategy? Mock Draft Observations...

[Pearmiser 3]

What is your strategy if you are drafting late in round 1? In a couple mocks, its tempting to grab nice WR1's in first 2 picks, but then in round 3 or 4 the RB pool looks pretty weak. Maybe Drake as my RB1.

 

I'm playing Yahoo 2 RB, 3 WR. .5 PPR.

 

If I'm drafting top 5 it looks pretty nice - 5 elite RB to pick from. Seems like there's pretty good WR depth in mid rounds, but RB is super thin. So when I mock at top 5, I find myself going RB/RB/TE, then loading on WR's min middle rounds (Baldwin, etc).

 

Other years, I've wanted to draft late round 1. Not this year.

 

So what do you do? Grab Hopkins paired with Fournette? I guess that's not a bad way to start.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,883]

Sure. Sounds good

[Pearmiser 3]

So if you are drafting late round 1, what is your strategy going into the draft rounds 1 to 4? WR / WR? WR / RB?

[Frozenbeernuts 1,883]

So if you are drafting late round 1, what is your strategy going into the draft rounds 1 to 4? WR / WR? WR / RB?

That sounds terrible. PPR? I am not leaving the 1st two rounds without at least 1 running back

[jrokh 596]

I would pick your 2 highest rated players, regardless of position in rounds 1-2, then maybe address need but not necessarily

[weepaws 3,006]

I think the first five picks should always be looked upon as starters.

 

Usually it’s 2 Rbs and 2 WRs and a flex.

 

So I’m the first round I’m always looking rb first, just can’t seem to shake that strategy.

 

So it’s either 3 Rbs and 2 WRs after five rounds or of course 2 Rbs and 3 WRs.

 

Then I look at Te like a Engram or a Graham and or a Rudolph should be available still.

 

Then some back ups.

 

I draft qbs late and def and kickers only because I have too.

 

Thanks for the question, good job.

[cyclone24 1,912]

I'm picking 10th...unless Antonio brown falls I'm going RB. Then early in round two I've got a cutoff of guys at RB I'll take...if they aren't there then I take from my targeted WRs that then WILL be available.

Then it's all how the draft goes. Definitely RB heavy early probably

[tanatastic 2,062]

Picked 1st in a 10tm non ppr yesterday. Took Gurley but that could be any of the top 4 you like. By the time my 2nd round turn came the best I could do was AJ Green and JHoward. Guy at the end of rnd 1 got Hopkins and OBj after 6th puck took Julio over those guys. Other duos were Barkley/Gordon, Fournette/Hunt.

 

Late picks are far superior to early picks this season imo. You still get studs at the end of the round. Half of these top 6 picks will get hurt or bust anyway.

[The PosterFormerlyKnownAs 78]

I would pick your 2 highest rated players, regardless of position in rounds 1-2, then maybe address need but not necessarily

This is the right answer. I might bump a player up one or three slots to go one at WR and one at RB, but blindly following position is a recipe for disaster.

[DaBeerz 88]

Seems to me this year's draft is no different than any other year's draft in that the top 5 RB all go in the early picks, leaving the stud WR.WR combination, or a low end RB1 and a top WR.

 

Personally, I hate picking late in the first for that reason. The other teams have you beat if they hit on a RB stud, the WR don't seem to match the scoring potential of the RB.

 

I've tried WR/WR stud theory and it never seems to work. I've concluded in most drafts you have to get a RB in the first 2 rounds or you struggle all year.

[seafoam1 2,525]

There is a bigger drop off for RBs than receivers. I would take the 2 best RBs, then target WRs and a TE, or even a great value at RB, as they fall to me over the next 3-4 rounds. If you are going into the 4th round looking for a generally consistent RB, you need luck or will spend the season on the waiver wire sweating about how to fill your RB positions.

[weepaws 3,006]

Interesting that you typed that one would need luck, and not skill. Mmm.

 

Thanks.

[tanatastic 2,062]

Interesting that you typed that one would need luck, and not skill. Mmm.

 

Thanks.

Yes, you need luck to hit on any consistent RB (injury etc), but especially if you wait til rnd 4. But smart owners load up on at least 6-7 RBs if they know they waited too long.

[Cover3 6]

I'm drafting 12 of 12 at the end of the month. My original strategy was to go RB rounds 1-3. In some mock drafts this has worked well, in others not so much. I really want either Fournette/Hunt/Gordon at 12. In half the mocks I've done this has happened. I am just not sold with Dalvin Cook as my #1 RB. His ACL last year and offensive line woes heading into the season worry me. I'd take him if I can pair him with one of the other 3 RB's mentioned above, but going RB/RB and pairing him with Devonta Freeman/Howard/Mixon/McCaffery does not seem strong enough for me to pass on a stud WR at 2.01. Going WR/WR in mocks has been a disaster at the RB position. I originally liked the idea of picking 12th, but if one of my preferred RB's doesn't fall to me I'll be torn on what to do.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,883]

I'm drafting 12 of 12 at the end of the month. My original strategy was to go RB rounds 1-3. In some mock drafts this has worked well, in others not so much. I really want either Fournette/Hunt/Gordon at 12. In half the mocks I've done this has happened. I am just not sold with Dalvin Cook as my #1 RB. His ACL last year and offensive line woes heading into the season worry me. I'd take him if I can pair him with one of the other 3 RB's mentioned above, but going RB/RB and pairing him with Devonta Freeman/Howard/Mixon/McCaffery does not seem strong enough for me to pass on a stud WR at 2.01. Going WR/WR in mocks has been a disaster at the RB position. I originally liked the idea of picking 12th, but if one of my preferred RB's doesn't fall to me I'll be torn on what to do.

In PPR I would trust McCaffery. He is going to touch the ball a lot in the pass game

[Cover3 6]

In PPR I would trust McCaffery. He is going to touch the ball a lot in the pass game

I do like McCaffery this year. I just haven't justified him in my head at 2.01. Do you like him better than Cook? Would you prefer Cook/McCaffery or McCaffery/WR?

 

Thanks.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,883]

I do like McCaffery this year. I just haven't justified him in my head at 2.01. Do you like him better than Cook? Would you prefer Cook/McCaffery or McCaffery/WR?

 

Thanks.

McCaffery/WR. I am nervous about a workload split

[Cover3 6]

McCaffery/WR. I am nervous about a workload split

Thanks for your input. Much appreciated.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

In my opinion its a good year for best player available, you just have to be careful because draft day often goes vastly different than mock drafting. BPA draft, if you aren't consistently going through different scenarios in preparation, can get you in a position on draft day where you look at your team in the 12th round and think 'what the did I do'.

 

I think I have liked WR/WR the least this year when I have gone through it but think it's still a good option if it truly is BPA.

[Cover3 6]

I agree with the BPA strategy to an extent. I just tend to value Low RB1's over mid to high WR1's. I also think if the WR position is deeper then it's safer to take the best player at the RB position early on, even if he's not projected for as many points as the WR. I feel I can get someone closer to the WR production of round 1-2 in rounds 4-7 than I can at the RB position. It also depends how you rank BPA. My league is PPR and starts QB, WR, WR, RB, RB, WR/RB/TE, WR/RB/TE, K, DEF. I envision starting 3 WR AND 3 RB, although not necessarily. I do know I'd rather start 3 RB's than 4 WR's, and I believe in order to do this most successfully I may need to draft RB/RB first 2 rounds.

[weepaws 3,006]

I would rather have D Cook over Mccaffery.

 

I’m more worried about Anderson taking work from Mccaffery then with D. Cook and his return.

 

I think Anderson is a much better rb right now this season then J Stewart was last season.

[tanatastic 2,062]

I would rather have D Cook over Mccaffery.

I’m more worried about Anderson taking work from Mccaffery then with D. Cook and his return.

I think Anderson is a much better rb right now this season then J Stewart was last season.

True, C.J might not be a beast but he is more than capable. In ball control situations where the panthers are ahead there might be little reason to see McCaffrey in the game for drives at a time.

[mobb_deep 919]

The answer is always BPA...

[DaBeerz 88]

The answer is always BPA...

 

There are so many variables to this though. What constitutes BPA? Do you base it off a pure stats analysis of point production based on your league's scoring?

 

Also as some other people mentioned, the drop off from Stud or viable starting RB to utter crap you struggle week to week to fill a spot is hard. You may not want a low-end RB1, but if it's that in some people's minds may still be BPA over a WR1.

[Cover3 6]

There are so many variables to this though. What constitutes BPA? Do you base it off a pure stats analysis of point production based on your league's scoring?

 

Also as some other people mentioned, the drop off from Stud or viable starting RB to utter crap you struggle week to week to fill a spot is hard. You may not want a low-end RB1, but if it's that in some people's minds may still be BPA over a WR1.

Agreed. I often rank players for my drafts considering multiple things: scoring for the league, last year's performance, highest floor, RBBC, etc. I'd always try to take the player I think will help my team win. However, I wouldn't draft back to back QB's in rounds 4 and 5 even if they were the next available player on my rankings. BPA is fine and all, but you have to consider how deep the positions are and how big of a dropoff there is going to be once the tier 1 and tier 2 guys are gone. Looking at a lot of Big Boards, drafting 12th and taking BPA, the majority of the time you'd go WR/WR. I just haven't seen that strategy work too many times.

[Turcaso 1]

I'm seeing M Gordon there at more than half of mocks.....and in all cases you can team him up with Odell or Juilo........that seems like a great start. The RB/RB strategy seems a lot more viable as the WR depth is lasting much longer into the end of the 3rd and early forth than RB's......IMO

[tanatastic 2,062]

Late round 1 is the rare opportunity to pair a stud RB with a top 4 WR. Dont pass that up. Hopkins and OBJ are must draft. Julio is a personal preference, but some put him in that same category. Its lunacy to pass that kind of pairing up.

[thunderball 0]

I'm drafting at the end and I'm leaning towards rb-rb. I agree with tanatastic about pairing a stud rb with a stud wr but feel like you can get two studs at rb. Of course it all depends on what happens to me before I pick. The RBs are not very deep and I think I can get decent WRs in rounds 3/4. With that being said, how would you rank the following RBs:

 

Hunt

Cook

Fournette

Gordon

CMC

 

.5 PPR

[mobb_deep 919]

 

There are so many variables to this though. What constitutes BPA? Do you base it off a pure stats analysis of point production based on your league's scoring?

 

Also as some other people mentioned, the drop off from Stud or viable starting RB to utter crap you struggle week to week to fill a spot is hard. You may not want a low-end RB1, but if it's that in some people's minds may still be BPA over a WR1.

Thats what BPA is right? The best player available, considering tier drop-off, league scoring, etc. At least to me it is. Its not just x player is going to score 150 points and y player is going to score 145, so I take x. If I have a tier with 4 RBs and 1 WR left, the BPA is the WR.