Bold Predictions

[weepaws 3,005]

24 minutes ago, jrokh said:

If FF is all luck then a random 12 year old, could join your league and have the same chance of winning as you. Is that really your contention? I’m starting to feel bad for you guys. If I thought I had the same chance of success as spinning a roulette wheel, I wouldn’t play...

There is no way you can say with all honestly that you win your ff league every single season.  

So then you play to compete don’t you? 

I know I do, I do my best to win, but with 13 other very good owners, if luck isn’t on my side, I’m not going to win, everyone pretty much comes to the draft with the same cheat sheet, sure if your playing against a rookie 12 year old child, and your a season ff vet, you’ll have a advantage, but not because of better skill, but simply more knowledge of how ff is played, I would hope you would help the rookie 12 year old to learn how to play ff ,, but I almost forgot whoim posting to, so I guess not, you would want to dominate that child and call it skill. 

Thanks. 

[jrokh 596]

25 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

As an example... let's say that any one person on this board went up against 11 "experts" from the fantasy industry in 2 different leagues.  In both leagues, you put in the same requisite work needed to compete... but in one league, you win the championship and in another, you finished dead last.  So, are you "skilled" in only the league you won?  No, you got really lucky in one league and really unlucky in the other.

As I posted earlier if every owner is approximately the same skill level, than luck comes more into play. However, in the above example that is a one season sample size. In both No Limit Hold 'EM and Fantasy Football the larger the sample size the more the Skill comes into play. For example, in most leagues (I assume), its not winner take all. There are cash prizes for most points or best record, 1st 2nd, or even 3rd place. So extrapolated over a 5 or 10 year sample, the owners with the best success rate of 'cashes' are usually the most skilled owners. The same thing holds true in poker tournaments. The best don't measure themselves based on how many times they win the whole thing, which is much more based on luck, but rather their cash %, or top 20 finishes, et. al. In fantasy its the same how many times over a certain number of years were you in the top 3 in total points, or even did you win more money than you put in for league dues...

[jrokh 596]

6 minutes ago, weepaws said:

There is no way you can say with all honestly that you win your ff league every single season.  

So then you play to compete don’t you? 

I know I do, I do my best to win, but with 13 other very good owners, if luck isn’t on my side, I’m not going to win, everyone pretty much comes to the draft with the same cheat sheet, sure if your playing against a rookie 12 year old child, and your a season ff vet, you’ll have a advantage, but not because of better skill, but simply more knowledge of how ff is played, I would hope you would help the rookie 12 year old to learn how to play ff ,, but I almost forgot whoim posting to, so I guess not, you would want to dominate that child and call it skill. 

Thanks. 

No, I play to win, but I consider the season a success if I finish in the black, i.e. win more money in prizes than I pay in dues. Knowledge is a part of skill. If FF was all luck as losers often claim, then it shouldn't matter what anyone 'knows'. Does it matter what anyone 'knows about roulette if you put al your money on a single number? That is an example of something that is ALL LUCK. You don't realize it, but you just disproved your own ridiculous theory...

[TBayXXXVII 2,390]

8 minutes ago, jrokh said:

As I posted earlier if every owner is approximately the same skill level, than luck comes more into play. However, in the above example that is a one season sample size. In both No Limit Hold 'EM and Fantasy Football the larger the sample size the more the Skill comes into play. For example, in most leagues (I assume), its not winner take all. There are cash prizes for most points or best record, 1st 2nd, or even 3rd place. So extrapolated over a 5 or 10 year sample, the owners with the best success rate of 'cashes' are usually the most skilled owners. The same thing holds true in poker tournaments. The best don't measure themselves based on how many times they win the whole thing, which is much more based on luck, but rather their cash %, or top 20 finishes, et. al. In fantasy its the same how many times over a certain number of years were you in the top 3 in total points, or even did you win more money than you put in for league dues...

Yes, the better your competition, the higher the luck.  People are judged based on the level of competition.  That's why I say "luck" favors all.  If you're a great fantasy player, with great league mates, your draw is the same as everyone else.  One night this week, I'll grab my spreadsheet (yes, I am that nerd - I have to be - I'm the commissioner), that has all of the final standings (and results), and let you know how many time each person made the playoffs, finished top 3 in points, middle 4, and bottom 3.

Sample size?  I can change the number to 20 leagues and not 2, with the same results.  It doesn't change the outcome.  Do you listen to satellite radio?  I listen to the Fantasy Sports channel a lot and these "experts" play in tons of leagues all the time against each other ever year.  Who's more skilled?  I don't think any are.  Whether they did well or not in any one league boils down to... how many of your "dark horses" panned out, how healthy your team was, and how many points your opponent scored against you.  Two of those 3 are pure luck.  The other, is mostly luck with a splash of skill.  Why only a splash?  Because everyone, even these experts, have like 10 or so "dark horses" and you're only going to pick 2 or 3 per league... you mix and match randomly.  So yeah, there's a level of skill based on your success percentage, but hitting the right one or two in that league is mostly luck.

[posty 2,486]

4 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Yes, the better your competition, the higher the luck.  People are judged based on the level of competition.  That's why I say "luck" favors all.  If you're a great fantasy player, with great league mates, your draw is the same as everyone else.  One night this week, I'll grab my spreadsheet (yes, I am that nerd - I have to be - I'm the commissioner), that has all of the final standings (and results), and let you know how many time each person made the playoffs, finished top 3 in points, middle 4, and bottom 3.

Sample size?  I can change the number to 20 leagues and not 2, with the same results.  It doesn't change the outcome.  Do you listen to satellite radio?  I listen to the Fantasy Sports channel a lot and these "experts" play in tons of leagues all the time against each other ever year.  Who's more skilled?  I don't think any are.  Whether they did well or not in any one league boils down to... how many of your "dark horses" panned out, how healthy your team was, and how many points your opponent scored against you.  Two of those 3 are pure luck.  The other, is mostly luck with a splash of skill.  Why only a splash?  Because everyone, even these experts, have like 10 or so "dark horses" and you're only going to pick 2 or 3 per league... you mix and match randomly.  So yeah, there's a level of skill based on your success percentage, but hitting the right one or two in that league is mostly luck.

The "dark horses" I would consider luck as well...  Doing research and spending more time on it isn't a "skill" IMO...  The data is out there for all and just because one person spends only five minutes on it compared to five hours, doesn't make the one spending way too much time on it more "skilled"...

[TBayXXXVII 2,390]

2 minutes ago, posty said:

The "dark horses" I would consider luck as well...  Doing research and spending more time on it isn't a "skill" IMO...  The data is out there for all and just because one person spends only five minutes on it compared to five hours, doesn't make the one spending way too much time on it more "skilled"...

That's true, but I was focusing more on the people compiling that info (the experts), not the people like us who use the info.

[posty 2,486]

1 minute ago, TBayXXXVII said:

That's true, but I was focusing more on the people compiling that info (the experts), not the people like us who use the info.

Oh I see...  Thanks for clarifying for me...

[RedzoneMonster 107]

It's a combination of luck and skill.  How much of each, it's impossible to say.  All I know is I've won $ by making it to the SB 8 times in the 20 years I've been in my league (In other words, 40% of the time - I know, I'm so awesome!).  Seriously though, not bragging, bc I'm sure there are many others who have done similar or better.  Just saying if I knew I could go to Vegas and win at roulette 40% of the time I'd be on a plane right now..

[Ironmen 14]

Focus...back to the Bold Predictions;

NFL 2020 Season Canceled

Brady Retires

Belichick Fired

Brady New HC Pats

 

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,390]

9 minutes ago, RedzoneMonster said:

It's a combination of luck and skill.  How much of each, it's impossible to say.  All I know is I've won $ by making it to the SB 8 times in the 20 years I've been in my league (In other words, 40% of the time - I know, I'm so awesome!).  Seriously though, not bragging, bc I'm sure there are many others who have done similar or better.  Just saying if I knew I could go to Vegas and win at roulette 40% of the time I'd be on a plane right now..

It is... but it's vastly in favor of luck.  Something like 95% luck, 5% skill.  Of course, if you listen to the "experts", they'll tell you it's 85% skill and 15% luck.  Why?  Because they want to make money.  If they tell you it's all luck, you won't pay for their service.  You'll just go out and use ESPN's free stuff.

[AxeElf 787]

The bottom line is that people who win regularly at fantasy football and poker are likely to (correctly) view them as games of skill.  Those who don't are likely to have some sour grapes over their own lack of success, and write them off as games of luck.

But whether you see Axe Elf as the most skilled fantasy football player on the planet, or merely the luckiest, there's no dispute in crowning him the best..

[weepaws 3,005]

1 hour ago, jrokh said:

No, I play to win, but I consider the season a success if I finish in the black, i.e. win more money in prizes than I pay in dues. Knowledge is a part of skill. If FF was all luck as losers often claim, then it shouldn't matter what anyone 'knows'. Does it matter what anyone 'knows about roulette if you put al your money on a single number? That is an example of something that is ALL LUCK. You don't realize it, but you just disproved your own ridiculous theory...

Not at all, you keep playing roulette, that has nothing to do with poker nor ff.  

Roulette is all luck, but like I said , if the owners in a league are of equal wisdom based on ff or the players in a poker game our seasonal players, it’s all luck.  

Roulette as nothing to do with.  Now roofing a house, now that takes a skill, or rebuilding a 401 motor on ones Buick , that takes skill. 

But since you brought roulette into it, ff is just like playing roulette, you make a pick, and hope you getting lucky and that number comes up in roulette or hope you get lucky and those players produce in ff.  

Thanks. 

[weepaws 3,005]

23 minutes ago, RedzoneMonster said:

It's a combination of luck and skill.  How much of each, it's impossible to say.  All I know is I've won $ by making it to the SB 8 times in the 20 years I've been in my league (In other words, 40% of the time - I know, I'm so awesome!).  Seriously though, not bragging, bc I'm sure there are many others who have done similar or better.  Just saying if I knew I could go to Vegas and win at roulette 40% of the time I'd be on a plane right now..

If your competitors is full of equal wisdom based on ff knowledge, you’ve been lucky those 40%. 

 

[weepaws 3,005]

45 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

The bottom line is that people who win regularly at fantasy football and poker are likely to (correctly) view them as games of skill.  Those who don't are likely to have some sour grapes over their own lack of success, and write them off as games of luck.

But whether you see Axe Elf as the most skilled fantasy football player on the planet, or merely the luckiest, there's no dispute in crowning him the best..

Right, so it’s in the eye of the beholder, if you play roulette and win, and your a prideful person, you won because you skillfully picked the right number. 

Thanks. 

[Ace08 11]

Chase Edmonds ends up being THE most valuable handcuff pick this year.  Good offense that wants to spread it out while still running the ball, and as a Dolphins fan I have serious concerns about Drake's ability to last an entire season as a lead back.  Drake will be good while in the lineup, but I'm willing to bet Edmonds starts at least 6-7 games this year and does very well.

[snatchit 108]

thanks for all the poker comments and luck.... so irrelevant to the topic

 

[weepaws 3,005]

Darn it , didn’t need for the Bucs to sign McCoy, now it’s a messy wicket. 

 

[snatchit 108]

On 7/26/2020 at 7:47 PM, RedzoneMonster said:

My point is they will play well enough THIS year to be considered 1st or 2nd rd picks next year. Pretty sure everyone else figured that out..

yes we all did, sometimes our boy wiffs on intelligence. Jerick McKinnon will be the SF RB to own

 

[weepaws 3,005]

2 hours ago, snatchit said:

yes we all did, sometimes our boy wiffs on intelligence. Jerick McKinnon will be the SF RB to own

 

Bold pick, now why?  Not a judgement of your statement, just interested to see why you think might be the case. 

Thanks. 

[snatchit 108]

20 hours ago, weepaws said:

Bold pick, now why?  Not a judgement of your statement, just interested to see why you think might be the case. 

Thanks. 

Just saying, something to watch

[stonewall 647]

ADP blows a rear main seal, and Bryce Love becomes a top-10 FF RB this season.

[AxeElf 787]

Ronald Jones will not average 20+ touches per game this season.

Oh wait, that goes in the Lead Pipe Lock Predictions thread.

Sorry.

[snatchit 108]

in regards to luck... just for grins I threw a NBA team together on Draftkings. I know very, very, very little about basketball players. I didnt even read about players I picked. It was a big GPP. When the games kicked off, many of my players were like 2% owned. I ended up winning a bit of money..lol

 

[jrokh 596]

1 minute ago, snatchit said:

in regards to luck... just for grins I threw a NBA team together on Draftkings. I know very, very, very little about basketball players. I didnt even read about players I picked. It was a big GPP. When the games kicked off, many of my players were like 2% owned. I ended up winning a bit of money..lol

 

Nice, I play fanduel, usually just 25 cent games. Winning once is mostly luck. Play ten times and see how you do. The larger the sample size the more skill comes into play, just like in fantasy football. The worst team in your league can beat the best team any given week, but the best team will win far more than the worst team over the 13 week regular season...

[weepaws 3,005]

That’s because , the good team has more good luck, an the bad team had more bad luck. 

Thanks. 

[DocNiner 57]

49ers and Shanahan return to the superbowl this year to face...........the Chiefs 

They get their 6th Lombardi trophy with a         34-33 win over K.C.  WR Brandon Aiyuk scores 2 touchdowns and RB Jerick McKinnon throws a TD to  QB Jimmy Garoppolo.

WR Aiyuk wins MVP with 187 receiving yards, 56 rushing yards and 2 receiving td's.

Shanahan is later fined $100,000 for comments made to head coach Andy Reid about his weight during their handshake after the game.

If it doesn't come to fruition I had fun writing the scenario though

 

[Ray_T 718]

On 8/8/2020 at 9:28 AM, jrokh said:

Nice, I play fanduel, usually just 25 cent games. Winning once is mostly luck. Play ten times and see how you do. The larger the sample size the more skill comes into play, just like in fantasy football. The worst team in your league can beat the best team any given week, but the best team will win far more than the worst team over the 13 week regular season...

well, the outcomes are generally about probabilities.

sometimes you look at a players game log, if hes averaging 15 fantasy points a game, and suddenly has a dog day with only 5 fantasy points,  I have (on occasion) looked up that game.

in some cases the player in question was listed as questionable because he had the flu or something of the sort.  In that case, maybe you bump his average up to 16 fantasy points per game and throw out the 5 point dud from your analysis.

but generally the better player has a higher chance of having a good game.   the poor player has a higher chance of having a bad game.

Thats how these things work.

so you make your own luck by drafting well. 

but sometimes you can generate luck by picking players starting against poor defenses as a one week filler to even the odds out.

timing of this sort of thing can be important.   There is no guarantee that playing the 'matchup' will always work.  sometimes it doesnt.   Usually playing the matchup is a better strategy later in the season.  the first 3-5 games you assume the team is on par with what they were last season, but that's not always the case.   so the strategy can backfire.  

but if you are in a situation where you need to take chances to win, sometimes this strategy as a one off can provide the spark your team needs.

[DrG 102]

Sure some luck. But play diligently and you see elements to each game you didn’t see before.  True of poker. True of FF. Good players have a higher % of drafting the late round success or picking the waiver wire gem. In any given year a lucky player might win. Over time the better players are more consistently in contention. 

[weepaws 3,005]

43 minutes ago, DrG said:

Sure some luck. But play diligently and you see elements to each game you didn’t see before.  True of poker. True of FF. Good players have a higher % of drafting the late round success or picking the waiver wire gem. In any given year a lucky player might win. Over time the better players are more consistently in contention. 

Let me of you would ask you a question, you typed Good Players. 

Im in a league that’s been around 32 years the youngest owners based on years in the league is going to be 8, everyone in this league is Good at ff, now how much luck would be involved? 

When one is in a true leagues that’s been established for so long , and everyone has had their fair share of winning and losing, luck is the biggest reason, when all else is equal, when it comes to ff. 

What say you? 

[phins1921 10]

I think Fitzgerald will be over 1000 yards receiving and have 10 tds

[AxeElf 787]

3 hours ago, weepaws said:

luck is the biggest reason, when all else is equal...

Finally you've said something that isn't patent nonsense!  Now THIS I can agree with!

When all else is equal, luck IS the biggest factor!

But when you're Axe Elf, all else is never equal...

[weepaws 3,005]

3 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Finally you've said something that isn't patent nonsense!  Now THIS I can agree with!

When all else is equal, luck IS the biggest factor!

But when you're Axe Elf, all else is never equal...

You always do.  

Thanks. M. 

[DrG 102]

‘Fair share’  not well quantified in your email. A deeper look might cause you to question that assumption.  But as AE said, if all else is equal, then luck is the only variable. In the multiple leagues I have played in, some are more regularly in the playoffs than others. They either draft better upside players and/or tune their roster as the season goes. There are other components to the game, but those are just two.

Same as playing Texas Hold Em. Some players leverage their chips better, time their bluffs better, or know their odds better. My level is the casual neighborly small potatoes game. But a few more experienced players show for these and clean up. They know the game better and size up opponents better. The small amount of $ lost to them worth it to see how they play and to learn at least a little.

 

 

[DrG 102]

Been only to one of those big Vegas ff extravaganzas. Watching the hardcore element roll in with multiple computers simply a different version of Moneyball.

[gpann101 32]

Most passing yards...Mahomes

Rushing title ..Joe Mixon

WR1...*Godwin

*10 yards shy of Jerry Rice's best season 

Hurst finishes top 3 TE

ROY ..CEH connecting with Mahomes through the air 20 times sealed the deal

Superbowl winner...ATLANTA

[Super Cubs 151]

David Johnson finishes the season as a top 5 RB ppr

Davante Adams, Julio Jones, and Nuk Hopkins fail to finish the season as  top 12 WR

TMZ catches Jerry Jones singing Mammas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up To Be Cowboys

 

[LoOnAtIk 75]

Stephon Diggs and Josh Allen form a great duo and Diggs finishes season as the #1 WR in standard and PPR.

[RabidSeaCows 99]

Tom Brady's weak ass 43 year old arm will be a big waste to TB's 2 great receivers. All he'll be able to throw to by week 5 is WR screens and Gronk for 3-4 yard gains.

He is benched week 8 by Blaine Gabbert when all the teams stack the line of scrimmage/blitz 2 out of 3 downs.

He will then retire at the end of the year while all the Sports caster's talk about how he should of retired 2 years ago after winning his last Superbowl...

TB wins first 4 games and loses the rest...of a shortened season...

Arians is fired....

JMHP

[AxeElf 787]

2 hours ago, RabidSeaCows said:

Tom Brady's weak ass 43 year old arm will be a big waste to TB's 2 great receivers. All he'll be able to throw to by week 5 is WR screens and Gronk for 3-4 yard gains.

I know we're in "Bold Predictions," but this nonsense about Brady not being able to throw the deep ball is getting to be a little much.

Brady has always been a superior deep passer, and he was one of the top 5 deep passers in the NFL last season.

[Serenity Now 63]

@Axe Elf Just curious what players are you endorsing this year? I always see you declaring that you're the best player of all time, but I don't think I've seen a  post where you actually say who you are looking to draft.