***Wagering thread***

[bostonlager 2,662]

2023 Ryder Cup odds

USA -175

Euro +190

[listen2me 23 1,758]

On 9/27/2021 at 8:37 AM, listen2me 23 said:

Hammer the Bucs now if you are riding with the angle that Brady is going to come back to NE off a loss and tun up the score.  Line will only get worse.  It was -5.5 last night on the look ahead lines.

I got in at -6.

TB -6 offical play.  

ML went from -250 yesterday.  To -278 to -295 to now -315. Line sits at 6.5 at my book now.  It will surely go to 7.

[jerryskids 6,184]

4 hours ago, JustinCharge said:

so far betting the over on games between 2 qbs that either went to a super bowl or won an nfl mvp id like 4-1?  split last week 1-1.   going with seahawks / 49ers over 52.5, ignoring steelers / packers.

I'll probably pass, NFC West games can be slobberknockers, just as likely a 3-3 tie.  Plus JimmyG as the rationale for an over?  

[bostonlager 2,662]

Cincinnati - Jacksonville 

Joe Burrow o 21.5 completions

[GutterBoy 2,897]

This is a great teaser week in the NFL

[Alias Detective 1,314]

13 hours ago, bostonlager said:

Cincinnati - Jacksonville 

Joe Burrow o 21.5 completions

How is this “off”?  Do most books have this at 23 or so?

[Alias Detective 1,314]

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/pass-attempts-per-game

[bostonlager 2,662]

3 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

How is this “off”?  Do most books have this at 23 or so?

Completions vs Jax pass defense this year

week 1 - 21

week 2 - 26

week 3 - 28

 

NFL pass defensive ranking through week 3 -  Jax ranked 28th 

 

 

[Alias Detective 1,314]

26 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

Completions vs Jax pass defense this year

week 1 - 21

week 2 - 26

week 3 - 28

 

NFL pass defensive ranking through week 3 -  Jax ranked 28th 

 

 

The above link has some good info if you didn’t look yet.
Cinci threw 18 times last week.  They average 25 passes over the 3 games.  Granted, a short sample but it’s all we got thus far.

BTW, I like the play.  

[bostonlager 2,662]

4 hours ago, Alias Detective said:

The above link has some good info if you didn’t look yet.
Cinci threw 18 times last week.  They average 25 passes over the 3 games.  Granted, a short sample but it’s all we got thus far.

BTW, I like the play.  

He could easily go 14-18 again. I always say - I have a 40% chance of being wrong. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,404]

Look ahead to the NFL cause this stood out to me Bills -16.5 vs Houston, General public is always suckers for that many points. I'm really liking the Bills giving the points on this one.

[BeenHereBefore 1,404]

On 9/28/2021 at 6:23 PM, bostonlager said:

Cincinnati - Jacksonville 

Joe Burrow o 21.5 completions

My site has 22.5 so I didn't take it.

[listen2me 23 1,758]

6 hours ago, BeenHereBefore said:

Look ahead to the NFL cause this stood out to me Bills -16.5 vs Houston, General public is always suckers for that many points. I'm really liking the Bills giving the points on this one.

I can do that in college.  But it is hard for me to drop that many points in the NFL.  Teams let of the gas.  Backdoor covers happen all the time.

That said, the Texans don't have much of a QB to orchestrate late points and a backdoor cover.  So I could see it.  

[BeenHereBefore 1,404]

15 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

I can do that in college.  But it is hard for me to drop that many points in the NFL.  Teams let of the gas.  Backdoor covers happen all the time.

That said, the Texans don't have much of a QB to orchestrate late points and a backdoor cover.  So I could see it.  

Yea easier to bet on that in college but had times where teams started getting a big lead and pulled their starting QB and I lost those ones.

[bostonlager 2,662]

4 hours ago, BeenHereBefore said:

My site has 22.5 so I didn't take it.

Good call. That’s too high. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,404]

5 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

Good call. That’s too high. 

Cool good to know.

[GutterBoy 2,897]

7 hours ago, BeenHereBefore said:

Look ahead to the NFL cause this stood out to me Bills -16.5 vs Houston, General public is always suckers for that many points. I'm really liking the Bills giving the points on this one.

It's profitable to take more than 14, but betting on a sh!tty team is not fun.

[BeenHereBefore 1,404]

On 9/27/2021 at 8:37 AM, listen2me 23 said:

Hammer the Bucs now if you are riding with the angle that Brady is going to come back to NE off a loss and tun up the score.  Line will only get worse.  It was -5.5 last night on the look ahead lines.

This is looking like a blowout under game to me, 30- 10 Tampa.

[listen2me 23 1,758]

Just now, BeenHereBefore said:

This is looking like a blowout under game to me, 30- 10 Tampa.

My book has first team to 30pts prop.  Bucs at +112.  May end up taking it

[BeenHereBefore 1,404]

1 minute ago, listen2me 23 said:

My book has first team to 30pts prop.  Bucs at +112.  May end up taking it

That sounds good and if my site has that I'm taking it too.

[BeenHereBefore 1,404]

10 minutes ago, GutterBoy said:

It's profitable to take more than 14, but betting on a sh!tty team is not fun.

No it's not.

[GutterBoy 2,897]

3 minutes ago, BeenHereBefore said:

No it's not.

Going back to 2003, underdogs by 14 or more are 70-61-4.

Yes it is.

[BeenHereBefore 1,404]

4 minutes ago, GutterBoy said:

Going back to 2003, underdogs by 14 or more are 70-61-4.

Yes it is.

Thanks good to know.

[TimmySmith 2,782]

6 minutes ago, GutterBoy said:

Going back to 2003, underdogs by 14 or more are 70-61-4.

Yes it is.

Congrats a 10 dollar bet on each just returned you $29 on 135 wagers. Less than 25 cents return per wager.  Very profitable. 

[GutterBoy 2,897]

1 minute ago, TimmySmith said:

Congrats a 10 dollar bet on each just returned you $29 on 135 wagers. Less than 25 cents return per wager.  Very profitable. 

The point of gambling is to win.

[TimmySmith 2,782]

51 minutes ago, GutterBoy said:

The point of gambling is to win.

Gamblers never win, because they don't realize the point is to make money.

[GutterBoy 2,897]

10 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

Gamblers never win, because they don't realize the point is to make money.

Most gamblers, when they go to gamble, they go to win.  Big bank, small bank, I like to make money.

[edjr 6,319]

1 hour ago, GutterBoy said:

The point of gambling is to win not lose.

[listen2me 23 1,758]

1 hour ago, BeenHereBefore said:

That sounds good and if my site has that I'm taking it too.

Bucs to win both halves is +175. I think both are excellent bets.  I know what I think is going to happen in that game.  But everyone seems to see it that way.  Which scares me a bit.    I just don't see Brady being satisfied with anything less than 30-35 pts and winning by at lesst 2 TDs.  NEs defense isnt bad but they arent going to score a ton vs the Bucs defense.  

[jerryskids 6,184]

8 hours ago, BeenHereBefore said:

My site has 22.5 so I didn't take it.

 

4 hours ago, bostonlager said:

Good call. That’s too high. 

Just got o 21.5 at +105 at DK.   

[bostonlager 2,662]

24 minutes ago, jerryskids said:

 

Just got o 21.5 at +105 at DK.   

Its a weird line. I originally got it -115 at Bovada. 

This morning Bovada has it listed at -135 - tells me I'm on the right side of the number. 

Checked on BetBuilder and doubled down at +105

 

Who knows what's going to happen. 

[bostonlager 2,662]

1:00

Carolina - Dallas

Dak Prescott u 14.5 rushing

Dak Prescott u 290.5 passing

Minnesota - Cleveland

Adam Thielen u 67.5 receiving

Adam Thielen u 5.5 receptions

Chicago - Detroit 

D'Andre Swift u 50.5 rushing

Buffalo - Houston

Cole Beasely o 5.5 receptions

Mark Ingram u 34.5 rushing

Miami - Indianapolis

Myles Gaskin o 3 receptions

Kansas City - Philadelphia

Clyde Edwards Heilaire o 2 receptions

Atlanta - Redskins

Calvin Ridley u 77.5 receiving

Mike Davis o 3 receptions

Terry McLaurin o 5.5 receptions

Tyler Heineke u 17.5 rushing

New Orleans - NYG

Daniel Jones u 235.5 passing

Alvin Kamara u 75.5 rushing

Deonte Harris u 31.5 receiving

Adam Trautman u 14.5 receiving

[edjr 6,319]

How does Tompa Bay not beat NE by at least 20?

[bostonlager 2,662]

2 minutes ago, edjr said:

How does Tompa Bay not beat NE by at least 20?

They very well could, but its not a given. Tampa has one of the worst defenses in the league and NE has the 2nd ranked defense vs the pass. If Mac Jones can protect the ball, this could be a close game. 

[Fireballer 2,601]

9 minutes ago, edjr said:

How does Tompa Bay not beat NE by at least 20?

Some sharp podcast hosts are actually calling for betting NE in a ML parlay..

[bostonlager 2,662]

Just now, Fireballer said:

Some sharp podcast hosts are actually calling for betting NE in a ML parlay..

I don't bet sides, but if I did, I would be taking the points. 

[jerryskids 6,184]

I got a free $50 bet with FD so said WTF, did a parlay of o 46.5 and Mixon o 100 rush yds for +306.  They literally are going to give me $50 win or lose.  Also decided to roll with Boyd over Diontae Johnson in fantasy since Higgins is out.  Go offense!   

[shorepatrol 1,828]

Mixon, Chase, Marvin Jones, Robinson any time scorer parlay at +2385

[BeenHereBefore 1,404]

17 hours ago, bostonlager said:

Good call. That’s too high. 

Change my mine and still took it made a few bucks on that and had Jags plus points on one but messed up the o/u on another Anyways thanks good call.

[Fireballer 2,601]

I dropped a nice little chunk on live MLB betting, mostly on Giants ML when they went down 3-1 to Dbacks.  Tied 4-4 now...getting a little nervous.

I love NFL betting.  The team that's 0-3 ATS and has gotten dismantled twice at home, covers on the road against the team that just went into Heinz Field and beat up the Steelers.