Kyren Williams...

[Maximum Overkill 1,125]

Kyren is not an every down back and McVay recognizes that. His role is about to change dramatically there. Round 3 draft capital is pretty high for a team who "doesn't need a RB". 

He's still a damn good football player and worth rostering but no longer at that early ADP. 

[weepaws 2,693]

Williams is going to be a good value soon 

[Maximum Overkill 1,125]

11 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Williams is going to be a good value soon 

At the right price. At this point I'm not taking him over guys like Rashaad White. Kyren is just too risky for my blood. 

[weepaws 2,693]

His ADP won’t be what it is at this point, it’s going to drop, and it already has been doing so, value pick soon enough, more so in ppr/half ppr then in a non ppr. Imo 

[weepaws 2,693]

Saw that K Williams said The Corum is very good at running the ball, and that should be good for Williams, so he can catch more passes.

I wouldn’t be drafting Williams at his current ADP, or even in the first five or more rds, It’s a full RBBC, and Corum will get the rushing tds.  

Corum currently has a fantastic ADP.  

[Ray_T 673]

On 5/27/2024 at 5:53 PM, weepaws said:

Williams is going to be a good value soon 

too many people will look at what he did last year and draft accordingly.   those in the know may avoid paying top dollar for him but the rest wont.

good value is relative.   I think his adp rises some but not enough to make him what you would call good value.

 

[weepaws 2,693]

50 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

too many people will look at what he did last year and draft accordingly.   those in the know may avoid paying top dollar for him but the rest wont.

good value is relative.   I think his adp rises some but not enough to make him what you would call good value.

 

It is relative, but his ADP is going to drop,it already has been, and the better Corum looks even more of a drop,  right now I’m passing on Williams, is adp is to high for a rb that will be in a RBBC, and the other guy is going to get the goal line att.  

Corum on the other is a fantastic buy right now, but his adp will be rising.  Darn. 

[weepaws 2,693]

51 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

too many people will look at what he did last year and draft accordingly.   those in the know may avoid paying top dollar for him but the rest wont.

good value is relative.   I think his adp rises some but not enough to make him what you would call good value.

 

If I can get Williams on my ppr team in rd 6 or later, that would be very good value based on his current adp.  

[Ray_T 673]

5 hours ago, weepaws said:

If I can get Williams on my ppr team in rd 6 or later, that would be very good value based on his current adp.  

I would be very surprised if you got him.    most ADP lists I see have him going in the top 3 rounds.   top 2 in standard leagues

[weepaws 2,693]

2 hours ago, Ray_T said:

I would be very surprised if you got him.    most ADP lists I see have him going in the top 3 rounds.   top 2 in standard leagues

Agreed, I won’t get him, because my point is, I won’t pay that much for him, he’s not going to be able to live up to that high of a pick, Corum is the better overall player.  I’m not even looking at Williams, but if he does fall, and once more positive news starts to flow about Corum, Corum adp will go up, Williams down.  Value 

Right now Corum is my target.  

[Maximum Overkill 1,125]

12 hours ago, Ray_T said:

those in the know may avoid paying top dollar for him but the rest wont.

good value is relative.   I think his adp rises some but not enough to make him what you would call good value.

Agree. The value is in Corum and it's not even a question. I'm avoiding Kyren all together. 

 

[Ray_T 673]

7 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Agree. The value is in Corum and it's not even a question. I'm avoiding Kyren all together. 

 

I wouldnt go that far.   Kyren is still the starter, and Corum has to develop more of his game before hes ready to displace him.

but he will take some touches away from him and thats why I dont draft him at his ADP.  I dont think that is being taken into account.

to be clear this isnt a criticism of Corum.   but hes likely next years guy. (or possibly the year after if Kyren puts up another huge year)

[weepaws 2,693]

12 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I wouldnt go that far.   Kyren is still the starter, and Corum has to develop more of his game before hes ready to displace him.

but he will take some touches away from him and thats why I dont draft him at his ADP.  I dont think that is being taken into account.

to be clear this isnt a criticism of Corum.   but hes likely next years guy. (or possibly the year after if Kyren puts up another huge year)

Disagree 

[GobbleDog 890]

On 5/27/2024 at 4:15 PM, Maximum Overkill said:

Kyren is not an every down back

He was definitely "an every down back" last year... on the field for 70% or more snaps in 10 out of 12 games. Week 3... 100%, Weeks 13 & 17... 94%. Rushing attempts, short yardage, goal line duty, receptions - did it all.

I think what you really mean is McVay doesn't want him to have to be the every down back. McVay ran Todd Girley into dust and probably learned a valuable lesson on over-worked Rbs. After Girley retired, the Rams played a damn near even backfield between Akers/Henderson in '20, then Michael/Henderson in '21, and Akers/Henderson again in '22. Last year was the anomaly and many think McVay did it out of pure necessity with old Royce Freeman being the Rams next best Rb.

So they drafted Corum to add some depth and McVay will probably lighten Kyren's load a bit ... but maybe not nearly as much as years past - Kyren Williams is just so damn good. His metrics were unbelievable. I think we're looking at a 66% - 33% split. Which is good enough to justify a 3rd rounder on Kyren in my mind.  And I'm usually opposed to drafting Rb's early. But 3rd feels right for Kyren.

 

[weepaws 2,693]

Think it’s going to more like 55-45.  Corum is really good. And K Williams has taken notice.  

[GobbleDog 890]

19 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Think it’s going to more like 55-45.  Corum is really good. And K Williams has taken notice.  

K Williams is really good. Corum is supposed to be good.  The unknown touches split is the crux of the Kyrem draft pick and nobody knows where it'll end up. Given McVay's historical committee Rb systems and willingness to force feed the hot hand - even rookies (Puka), I understand the trepidation.

Based on last year's sick metrics, I still like the 3rd round investment on Williams, but odds are he'll be gone by then. Somebody else will get (what I consider) a solid Rb who was 2nd in points per game last year. Currently RB 8.

[weepaws 2,693]

K Williams had a great season, last year.  

[GobbleDog 890]

1 minute ago, weepaws said:

K Williams had a great season, last year.  

Williams is about to turn 24 yo.  In other post someone was raving about all the Tds 29 yo Zeke had four years ago in Dallas.  I'm inclined to believe a soon-to-be 24 yo still has it. Old man Zeke... good luck.

[weepaws 2,693]

3 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Williams is about to turn 24 yo.  In other post someone was raving about all the Tds 29 yo Zeke had four years ago in Dallas.  I'm inclined to believe a soon-to-be 24 yo still has it. Old man Zeke... good luck.

I believe that K Williams still has it, but I’m not paying his adp for him, Corum has a great adp, I’ve been able to get him often in mocks.  

I think Corum will be on the front line early and often when the season starts.  

God bless. 

[Ray_T 673]

7 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

He was definitely "an every down back" last year... on the field for 70% or more snaps in 10 out of 12 games. Week 3... 100%, Weeks 13 & 17... 94%. Rushing attempts, short yardage, goal line duty, receptions - did it all.

I think what you really mean is McVay doesn't want him to have to be the every down back. McVay ran Todd Girley into dust and probably learned a valuable lesson on over-worked Rbs. After Girley retired, the Rams played a damn near even backfield between Akers/Henderson in '20, then Michael/Henderson in '21, and Akers/Henderson again in '22. Last year was the anomaly and many think McVay did it out of pure necessity with old Royce Freeman being the Rams next best Rb.

So they drafted Corum to add some depth and McVay will probably lighten Kyren's load a bit ... but maybe not nearly as much as years past - Kyren Williams is just so damn good. His metrics were unbelievable. I think we're looking at a 66% - 33% split. Which is good enough to justify a 3rd rounder on Kyren in my mind.  And I'm usually opposed to drafting Rb's early. But 3rd feels right for Kyren.

 

that's the thing isnt it.

when a RB is highly productive and has those metrics you speak of, its really hard to show him the bench.

Lots of time when you have a young player, they may produce as a backup so you ramp up their playing time and the metrics fall off a bit.   but Kyren has good metrics and they ran the hell out of him.    you dont bench that.  you may ease up on the playing time by getting a Quality backup.   but this is done to avoid injury.   

and a third round pick does not usually replace a starter in year 1.   At least not a productive starter.      Year 2 or 3 he might  but that would be as kyren Williams is getting closer to signing a big money contract that the team doesnt want to pay.

the only way this kid gets 50% of the carries is if Kyren Williams gets hurt or is ineffective.    I dont think he will be ineffective and given  last season I could see them giving him a reasonable leash if he is.

Williams wont drop below 60% of the carries unless he gets hurt or isnt playing well.   you can take that to the bank.      but you wont see Williams getting much more than 65% of the rush attempts anymore even if hes lighting it on fire.   Corum was drafted to ease that burden(and he will)

[Maximum Overkill 1,125]

Keep in mind that Corum didn't allow a sack during his college career when pass blocking. That'll help keep him on the field. 

Kyren is definitely the #1 but Corum is good enough to demand quality touches. That in itself scares me off of Kyren as my #1 

[weepaws 2,693]

Corum will become a factor early and often. 

[IGotWorms 3,759]

On 5/27/2024 at 5:06 PM, Maximum Overkill said:

At the right price. At this point I'm not taking him over guys like Rashaad White. Kyren is just too risky for my blood. 

I’d take him over Rachaad. Rachaad sucks. Yeah he got volume last year but that has to end eventually if he continues to stink 

[Ray_T 673]

20 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

I’d take him over Rachaad. Rachaad sucks. Yeah he got volume last year but that has to end eventually if he continues to stink 

Rachaad white doesnt suck.    but I think his running ability is average at best.   3.6 YPC isnt blowing anybody away.  

But hes a far better receiver than everyone (myself included) thought he would be and he put up decent points on the ground because of volume.

in PPR you gotta love that 64 catch season.   thats top 5.   with that kind of receiving stats his run game doesnt need to be great for him to be a good fantasy producer.    in reality hes a better fantasy player than he is an actual player, but that happens sometimes.

that said, I would take Willams ahead of him any day.   I dont deny williams is ranked higher than he should be  but he should still be able to out produce White for fantasy purposes.

 

 

[weepaws 2,693]

Besides, B Irving is going to be receiving playing time.  He’s a good one 

[Maximum Overkill 1,125]

7 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

I’d take him over Rachaad. Rachaad sucks. Yeah he got volume last year but that has to end eventually if he continues to stink 

I think I agree. Rachaad is strictly a pass catcher IMO. I think you'll see a significant drop off now that he finally has some competition. And you're right, he's useless without the volume. 

[DocNiner 52]

Wherever you're taking Kyren Williams you better make sure to lock up Blake Corum even if you have to over spend for him. Possible Williams injury could be an issue to start the season so we'll have to see what his level of participation is in training camp. For me I'm not willing to take him 1st round or early/mid 2nd round until I'm certain the injury is behind him. If there's still question mark about him in training camp I'll let someone else take the risk and adjust my draft.board accordingly.

[Ray_T 673]

8 hours ago, DocNiner said:

Wherever you're taking Kyren Williams you better make sure to lock up Blake Corum even if you have to over spend for him. Possible Williams injury could be an issue to start the season so we'll have to see what his level of participation is in training camp. For me I'm not willing to take him 1st round or early/mid 2nd round until I'm certain the injury is behind him. If there's still question mark about him in training camp I'll let someone else take the risk and adjust my draft.board accordingly.

yeah.  Corum likely has the most value to whoever owns Kyren Williams. (at least in redraft)

[WhiteWonder 2,390]

Im not super high on Williams but all these posts about full blown RBBC and Kyren isn't a workhorse or every down back are pretty laughable. Where is the evidence that Williams and Corum are in a true RBBC? Not saying it cant happen, but where are we pulling this news from?  And I see Gobble has already taken care of dispelling the notion that Williams isn't an every down back...   it's as if some of you don't watch football.

[WhiteWonder 2,390]

I will add that in today's NFL, it is of course reasonable to expect a rookie RB with some promise to eat into the incumbent's touches a bit. But it's interesting to me that Williams is all of the sudden being viewed almost as a DND in round 3 because of the draft capital used on Corum (rd 3).... the Jets drafted Braelon Allen in round 4. Is Breece Hall now not an every down back? Avoid at his adp?   Curious where we draw the draft capital line. 

[IGotWorms 3,759]

17 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

Im not super high on Williams but all these posts about full blown RBBC and Kyren isn't a workhorse or every down back are pretty laughable. Where is the evidence that Williams and Corum are in a true RBBC? Not saying it cant happen, but where are we pulling this news from?  And I see Gobble has already taken care of dispelling the notion that Williams isn't an every down back...   it's as if some of you don't watch football.

I agree, although I will say — the RBBC notion seems to be based on the belief that the Rams will have to do it. Kyren is not built for bell cow duty and it showed last year.

But yeah, where are the reinforcements? Corum is an unknown as a rookie and typically rookie RBs take a little bit to pick up the game, especially when they’re not a top pick.

Realistically Corum is a play for 2025 and beyond. Not saying he won’t do anything this year but he’s not shoving Williams aside either. Well not unless Williams gets hurt

[Maximum Overkill 1,125]

51 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

Im not super high on Williams but all these posts about full blown RBBC and Kyren isn't a workhorse or every down back are pretty laughable

Well, let's see. 

 

Kyren Williams graded RB141 out of 148 in pass blocking per @PFF. And in 2023 he tied for 5th most hurries allowed.

Corum is faster and more explosive. 

Why wouldn't it be a committee, if not Corum's backfield 

[kcBlitzkrieg 27]

45 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

I will add that in today's NFL, it is of course reasonable to expect a rookie RB with some promise to eat into the incumbent's touches a bit. But it's interesting to me that Williams is all of the sudden being viewed almost as a DND in round 3 because of the draft capital used on Corum (rd 3).... the Jets drafted Braelon Allen in round 4. Is Breece Hall now not an every down back? Avoid at his adp?   Curious where we draw the draft capital line. 

Little talent gap there between Breece and Kyren.... one is a potential overall RB1 and the other is far from it....  

[kcBlitzkrieg 27]

On 6/29/2024 at 12:46 AM, weepaws said:

Besides, B Irving is going to be receiving playing time.  He’s a good one 

Yep   

[weepaws 2,693]

I think K Williams has the rb 1 slot locked up, week one first play,  after that Corum will be invested.  

[JagFan 117]

On 6/27/2024 at 1:23 PM, GobbleDog said:

He was definitely "an every down back" last year... on the field for 70% or more snaps in 10 out of 12 games. Week 3... 100%, Weeks 13 & 17... 94%. Rushing attempts, short yardage, goal line duty, receptions - did it all.

I think what you really mean is McVay doesn't want him to have to be the every down back. McVay ran Todd Girley into dust and probably learned a valuable lesson on over-worked Rbs. After Girley retired, the Rams played a damn near even backfield between Akers/Henderson in '20, then Michael/Henderson in '21, and Akers/Henderson again in '22. Last year was the anomaly and many think McVay did it out of pure necessity with old Royce Freeman being the Rams next best Rb.

So they drafted Corum to add some depth and McVay will probably lighten Kyren's load a bit ... but maybe not nearly as much as years past - Kyren Williams is just so damn good. His metrics were unbelievable. I think we're looking at a 66% - 33% split. Which is good enough to justify a 3rd rounder on Kyren in my mind.  And I'm usually opposed to drafting Rb's early. But 3rd feels right for Kyren.

 

I agree with this.  They needed good depth / change of pace behind Williams.  It makes zero sense to take that much proven production off the field if you’re trying to win games, and keep your job.  Corum is insurance should Williams get dinged up.  Williams still finishes in the top 5 for RBs this year.  

[Showboat 152]

 

1 hour ago, JagFan said:

He was definitely "an every down back" last year... on the field for 70% or more snaps in 10 out of 12 games. Week 3... 100%, Weeks 13 & 17... 94%. Rushing attempts, short yardage, goal line duty, receptions - did it all.

I think what you really mean is McVay doesn't want him to have to be the every down back. McVay ran Todd Girley into dust and probably learned a valuable lesson on over-worked Rbs. After Girley retired, the Rams played a damn near even backfield between Akers/Henderson in '20, then Michael/Henderson in '21, and Akers/Henderson again in '22. Last year was the anomaly and many think McVay did it out of pure necessity with old Royce Freeman being the Rams next best Rb.

So they drafted Corum to add some depth and McVay will probably lighten Kyren's load a bit ... but maybe not nearly as much as years past - Kyren Williams is just so damn good. His metrics were unbelievable. I think we're looking at a 66% - 33% split. Which is good enough to justify a 3rd rounder on Kyren in my mind.  And I'm usually opposed to drafting Rb's early. But 3rd feels right for Kyren.

 

1 hour ago, JagFan said:

I agree with this.  They needed good depth / change of pace behind Williams.  It makes zero sense to take that much proven production off the field if you’re trying to win games, and keep your job.  Corum is insurance should Williams get dinged up.  Williams still finishes in the top 5 for RBs this year.  

Something doesn't make sense here.  If 3rd round feels right for Kyren, that is no better than a top 15 RB, not a top 5 RB.

 

 

[Maximum Overkill 1,125]

4 minutes ago, Showboat said:

 

 

Something doesn't make sense here.  If 3rd round feels right for Kyren, that is no better than a top 15 RB, not a top 5 RB.

 

 

Kyren truthers are torn 

[polecatt 417]

He's the #1 RB on my dynasty team and I'm glad to have him.

I get the concerns people have about him, but I don't think they're really any more concerning than with other RBs.

CMC is the top RB and after him I think 2-7 or so could be about interchangeable. Kyren Williams would be one in that mix.

[weepaws 2,693]

2 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Kyren truthers are torn 

Sometimes one doesn’t want to accept the truth.