UPDATE: Derek Carr headed to the Saints

[Ray_T 722]

https://fftoday.com/news/index.php?Item=15563

Gutsy move.  potentially leaving a lot of cash on the table.   but then again, I'm not sure I'd want to play for the Saints right now.

They already have cap issues.  adding  a player with a 40 M cap hit likely means purging the remaining talent on your roster.   I guess he just does not wanna play for a losing team. or hes just that pissed at the way he was treated by the Raiders.

either way.....

ouch.

[weepaws 3,035]

Still doesn’t mean Carr won’t end up playing with the Saints next season.   

[mjeddy66 1]

Want to win $ ... bet the opposite. God Bless!

[TBayXXXVII 2,409]

No idea why he would not want a trade.  Look, I understand wanting to be comfortable in a system/situation, but over the next 3 years, he's set to make $116M in base pay... none of which is guaranteed.  There's no reason for the Raiders to not cut him, as they'll get a $24M cap savings this coming year and less than a $4M hit the following year.  I guess the only thing that they'd lose is a couple of draft picks (as I think they'd probably get at least a 2nd and a 3rd round pick for him).  Carr on the other hand, I don't think he's going to get a deal that pays him an average of $38.7M over the next 3 seasons.  If I had to guess, the best offer he gets is a 4-year / $120M deal with only half of it guaranteed.

When you look at the teams with the most cap space, there's not a lot of need at the QB position.  The top 5 are Chicago, Atlanta, Giants, Houston, and Cincy.  Sure, we could argue Chicago & Atlanta, but the Bears aren't going to replace Fields for an expensive QB who won't upgrade their crappy team and Atlanta has a top 10 pick and a crappy team as well.  I just think both would be wasting money.  Houston has the #2 pick, they're going to sign him and I think Cincinnati is ok with their QB situation.  The Giants could be an option and I think they'd be smart to go after him, but they may rather give Jones another year.  I don't think the Giants would need to tag Jones to keep him.  The tag is $32.4M for QB's... I can't imagine any team giving more than $20M to Jones.

Outside the top 5, the next 5 are Seattle, New England, Baltimore, Las Vegas, Detroit.  I think Seattle will probably re-sign Smith (at a lower number than what Carr is worth), Baltimore will probably tag Jackson, Vegas clearly doesn't want him, and while Carr would be an upgrade in Detroit, I don't think they'd bring him in.  I can see New England making a play for him and they have the cap space.  What I don't know is if Carr would want to go there.  He may see the weapons (or lack there of), and not be too fond of the situation.

Teams that I think would be mutually agreeable with Carr would/could be Washington and the Jets.  I'd love for Tampa to be interested, but they just don't have the money.  They're currently $55M over the cap and have some FA's that probably won't be retained and good players who may get traded... unless they want to kick the can down the road a few more years.  Not sure Carr would want to be a part of that... or play for Todd Bowles.  I wouldn't if I were him.

So, I'm not so sure Carr is making a wise move because, as I said, the places that would probably be mutually agreeable would be teams with limited cap flexibility (Washington at $6M under the cap and the Jets [somehow], $3M over the cap).  Maybe the Giants, maybe NE.  In either case, I think the 4/$120M best offer (I mentioned above), may be a long shot.  He's probably better off just taking the trade.

To note, I'm also guessing that the Saints were probably only willing to trade for him if he renegotiated his contract.  Which again, guessing, that he thinks that whomever would be interested in trading for him would want the same thing.  If that is the reason, I can understand him wanting to be released.  If he's going to have to work out a new deal, he'll want full control over the team that he ends up with and not the Raiders deciding that.

[Ray_T 722]

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I'm also guessing that the Saints were probably only willing to trade for him if he renegotiated his contract.  Which again, guessing, that he thinks that whomever would be interested in trading for him would want the same thing.  If that is the reason, I can understand him wanting to be released.  If he's going to have to work out a new deal, he'll want full control over the team that he ends up with and not the Raiders deciding that.

That is the funny thing to me.  the Saints are in the same position Tampa is in.   They have cap problems, so getting Carr and that contract would make things very nutty over there.

I have to believe you are onto something there.   I cant see them taking that 40 m cap hit. without gutting the team.

I dont blame Carr for not wanting to be a part of that.    But truly I think Carr doesnt care about the money.  I think hes done with the Raiders and wants to control his own destiny.   

That said I still think hes saying he wont accept a trade to anyone.   but that may change if they send him somewhere he actually wants to be.  its just likely a polite way of saying No to New Orleans.  Either way if Vegas releases him I guess he will get what he wants.

[jrokh 597]

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

The Giants could be an option and I think they'd be smart to go after him, but they may rather give Jones another year.  I don't think the Giants would need to tag Jones to keep him.  The tag is $32.4M for QB's... I can't imagine any team giving more than $20M to Jones.

Utter Nonsense. The Giants want to lock up DJ for many years. Multile teams would give Jones way more than $20M. I don't think you understand the market at all. Your takes remain among the worst here in this forearm...

[Ray_T 722]

26 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Utter Nonsense. The Giants want to lock up DJ for many years. Multile teams would give Jones way more than $20M. I don't think you understand the market at all. Your takes remain among the worst here in this forearm...

didnt they refuse his 5th year option earlier?

Granted, This year is the first year hes even come remotely close to touching his potential.   but I do think you are right.  I think they like him in New York(though I'm not 100% sure on that).  Carr remains an option only if Jones decides not to sign in New York.    I guess if you are negotiating a long term QB deal this is the year to do it.  There are lots of QB available if you dont get your guy.

 

[jrokh 597]

1 minute ago, Ray_T said:

didnt they refuse his 5th year option earlier?

Granted, This year is the first year hes even come remotely close to touching his potential.   but I do think you are right.  I think they like him in New York(though I'm not 100% sure on that).  Carr remains an option only if Jones decides not to sign in New York.    I guess if you are negotiating a long term QB deal this is the year to do it.  There are lots of QB available if you dont get your guy.

 

Yes, they refused the 5th year option. It was a new staff and they wanted to see what they had before making a commitment, and rightly so. Now they have and they will lock him up for a few years at minimum. my guess is between 37-42 Mill AAV. No starting quarterbacks can be had for 20 million. Jimmy G probably gets 35 on one or two year deal. The Salary Cap just went up by a significant amount.

[Ray_T 722]

3 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Yes, they refused the 5th year option. It was a new staff and they wanted to see what they had before making a commitment, and rightly so. Now they have and they will lock him up for a few years at minimum. my guess is between 37-42 Mill AAV. No starting quarterbacks can be had for 20 million. Jimmy G probably gets 35 on one or two year deal. The Salary Cap just went up by a significant amount.

sounds about right.

I think to some degree I suspect they still are not 100% sure what they have in him.   This year he has shown signs of being the player he was meant to be but I think he still has another step (possibly two) to get across the finish line.

so I dont see him getting elite money but I think he will still get very good money.   I'd probably sign him for a 3 year deal.  I'm not sure you go longer than that unless the dollar amount is friendly to the team.

[League Champion 1,790]

The Raiders messed this up bad! 

[Ray_T 722]

16 minutes ago, League Champion said:

The Raiders messed this up bad! 

They have been run in a questonable manner for a long time.  this does not surprise me at all.  

honestly in most of the scenarios I can forsee, Carr is better off elsewhere.   

I suspect the Raiders may end up signing JimmyG.   I  think his familiarity with McDaniels scheme from his days in New England makes him potentially a top candidate to fill the vacancy left by Carr but we shall see.

 

 

[Phil Simms 11 133]

He met with the Saints and they arranged for him to do this so the Saints don’t need to trade any assets for him. 
 

In return he gets a renegotiated deal with more years and money guaranteed but less annual average.

 

[League Champion 1,790]

30 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

suspect the Raiders may end up signing JimmyG

I could definitely see that. They really need to sign someone better than Carr or this was all for nothing. 

[Ray_T 722]

1 hour ago, League Champion said:

I could definitely see that. They really need to sign someone better than Carr or this was all for nothing. 

I'm not sure hes better, but hes comparable and he knows the offensive concepts McDaniel will be using.    so hes more likely to be productive early if he signs there.

personally I'd be more worried about his history of injury.   San Fran was right to want to move on from him because the guy just does not seem to have the ability to stay healthy.  

it could be extremely bad luck but its also possible he is fragile.

[weepaws 3,035]

I’m not sure Jimmy G is an upside. But I also wonder what the Raiders might be doing with Jacobs.  

[Ray_T 722]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

I’m not sure Jimmy G is an upside. But I also wonder what the Raiders might be doing with Jacobs.  

fair question.

If I were Jacobs and this was happening I'd be leaning towards leaving unless they bring in someone I felt was as good or better than Carr.

RB Stats tend to mirror how the team is doing.   if the team is losing, the gamescript usually is poor for RB stats...... of course if they throw a pile of cash at him and give him a nice guarantee,  maybe he doesnt care.

[weepaws 3,035]

Jacobs had a very good season while playing on a team that wasn’t good.  

I think Jacobs is in a very positive situation for himself.  

 

[seafoam1 2,579]

I've been to New Orleans about 50 times. It's kinda gross.

[makindollaz 51]

59 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

I've been to New Orleans about 50 times. It's kinda gross.

It’s not everyone’s cup of tea.

It’s one of my favorite cities in the country.

[League Champion 1,790]

1 hour ago, seafoam1 said:

I've been to New Orleans about 50 times. It's kinda gross.

Bourbon Street smells like toilet puke, all of it. It's disgusting. 

[Ray_T 722]

3 hours ago, weepaws said:

Jacobs had a very good season while playing on a team that wasn’t good.  

I think Jacobs is in a very positive situation for himself.  

 

true.  and think about how many seasons hes played for mediocre Raiders team?  

could you imagine him on a good team with substantial garbage time?

one of the reasons he was better this year because I think McDaniel did a great job with the line.   their blocking was better.   

its not normal to perform at a higher level in a losing season as compared to a winning one but thats what happened.

[weepaws 3,035]

15 minutes ago, League Champion said:

Bourbon Street smells like toilet puke, all of it. It's disgusting. 

SF has caught up. 

[weepaws 3,035]

5 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

true.  and think about how many seasons hes played for mediocre Raiders team?  

could you imagine him on a good team with substantial garbage time?

one of the reasons he was better this year because I think McDaniel did a great job with the line.   their blocking was better.   

its not normal to perform at a higher level in a losing season as compared to a winning one but thats what happened.

It was also his contact season.  

[Ray_T 722]

8 minutes ago, weepaws said:

It was also his contact season.  

That is true.  in pre season I highlighted this as one of the reasons to buy.

[League Champion 1,790]

7 hours ago, Ray_T said:

That is true.  in pre season I highlighted this as one of the reasons to buy.

Now is a reason to sell. He's going to get a monster contract and we'll never hear from him again. That's how it goes with RBs. I'm drafting every starting RB who's on a contract year. 

[Ray_T 722]

10 hours ago, League Champion said:

Now is a reason to sell. He's going to get a monster contract and we'll never hear from him again. That's how it goes with RBs. I'm drafting every starting RB who's on a contract year. 

not all RB's but some are like that for sure.

I'll reserve judgement until I know where he is signing.

[League Champion 1,790]

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,409]

6 minutes ago, League Champion said:

 

I don't necessarily think that's a lie.

[League Champion 1,790]

Probably not, especially since they put almost anyone in the Hall of Fame nowadays. If you're a QB and you hang around long enough, you're in. 

[jrokh 597]

14 minutes ago, League Champion said:

especially since they put almost anyone in the Hall of Fame nowadays. If you're a QB and you hang around long enough, you're in. 

Really? Which QB's are currently in The HOF for 'hanging around long enough'?

[Ray_T 722]

3 hours ago, jrokh said:

Really? Which QB's are currently in The HOF for 'hanging around long enough'?

you know....,. all of them.   haha

[weepaws 3,035]

First ballet HOF , I don’t think so.  

[Ray_T 722]

well, I think he will have better talent there than he had most of his career in Vegas.

he put up respectable numbers and other than this last year, did he have any WR you can think of that were good?

all he had was a good TE (Waller)   other than that it was barren in terms of WR talent.

[LaChup 215]

He had Ruggs, but he was too fast.

[Gepetto 1,199]

Possibly.  The Jets are only a slightly above average QB who has a very good year away from winning a Super Bowl, maybe 2.  Jets seem to have a very good roster except QB.

[LaChup 215]

The Saints should just give Taysom Hill $5B for three years and get it over with.

[weepaws 3,035]

Yea the Jets have a good roster, but first ballot HOF.  No.  

[League Champion 1,790]

4 hours ago, Gepetto said:

Possibly.  The Jets are only a slightly above average QB who has a very good year away from winning a Super Bowl, maybe 2.  Jets seem to have a very good roster except QB.

People are way too high on the Jets. They have a decent roster, not Superbowl worthy. Derek Carr is not a difference maker, never was. Derek Carr is what he is, an average QB who disappears during crunch time and folds like a lawn chair in big games. 

Facts 

[League Champion 1,790]

4 hours ago, LaChup said:

The Saints should just give Taysom Hill $5B for three years and get it over with.

I think they did already

[EternalShinyAndChrome 3,493]

3 hours ago, League Champion said:

People are way too high on the Jets. They have a decent roster, not Superbowl worthy. Derek Carr is not a difference maker, never was. Derek Carr is what he is, an average QB who disappears during crunch time and folds like a lawn chair in big games. 

Facts 

This guy gets it.