Javonte Williams 2023

[GobbleDog 918]

If you've mock drafted you've seen rb's remaining in rd 7, then notice Javonte Williams. You ignore him, but rd 8 and Williams is still there. Rd 9... Williams.

Dude was fantastic before tearing "acl, lcl, and plc" with surgery in late October 2022. That's 10.7 months before week 1. Normal ACL is 9-12 months. Reports are no setbacks (unlike Dobbins) and looks sharp at drills. Sean Peyton will improve the offense, but definitely won't work Williams much the first half of season.

So he won't play much til Week 8ish and might never be good... but a cheap pick for potential second half star. What say ye Geeks?  Who's rolling the acl dice?

[Pimpadeaux 2,403]

I'd pick him up in Round 9. 

[weepaws 3,023]

I see Perine going about twenty picks later, I would rather take a shot in landing Perine in my two 14 team redrafts.  

J Williams has a low rb3  is to rich for me, and usually taken in the 8th rd, unless he’s available n the double digit rds I’m not going to get him, and I’m okay with that, even though there hasn’t been much talk about any set backs I still have doubts, drills aren’t live action.  

Great question OP, thanks.  

[AxeElf 787]

Too many other good options; I'm basically ignoring him unless I can get him for a dollar or two--and that's probably not happening, thanks to all my self-sacrificing leaguemates.

[GobbleDog 918]

2 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Too many other good options; I'm basically ignoring him unless I can get him for a dollar or two--and that's probably not happening, thanks to all my self-sacrificing leaguemates.

I wouldn't bid much in auction either, but in re-drafts there aren't many "good options" rds 7-9....  D Cook, J Cook, Dillon, Robinson, Jamal Williams, Perine, Penny, etc.... worthless.

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

I wouldn't bid much in auction either, but in re-drafts there aren't many "good options" rds 7-9....  D Cook, J Cook, Dillon, Robinson, Jamal Williams, Perine, Penny, etc.... worthless.

Cam Akers, James Conner and Isiah Pacheco are all currently within 10 ADPs of Williams, and Herbert is about 25 ADPs later.  I'd rather have any of them on my roster than Javonte Williams.

[weepaws 3,023]

Throw D Harris into the mix.  

[GobbleDog 918]

33 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Throw D Harris into the mix.  

I'll give ya Harris. But he's our 9th/10th rnd secret.

[GobbleDog 918]

51 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Cam Akers, James Conner and Isiah Pacheco are all currently within 10 ADPs of Williams, and Herbert is about 25 ADPs later.  I'd rather have any of them on my roster than Javonte Williams.

Purposely didn't mention Akers, Conner or Pacheco since they're the last to go before the Williams decision starts. As for Herbert... in ppr? Ugh. He might lose his starting gig anyway.

[AxeElf 787]

3 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

As for Herbert... in ppr? Ugh.

First mention in this thread of PPR scoring; but then people talked themselves out of drafting Derrick Henry in the past for the same reason.

[polecatt 472]

I would pick him up in the 8th or 9th round.

Why not?

 

[GobbleDog 918]

2 hours ago, polecatt said:

I would pick him up in the 8th or 9th round.

Why not?

I've done it in mocks... feel dirty every time.

Year long roster clogger -vs- Second half superman

History shows you should be skeptical of RBs off acl's and mcl's.

[Ray_T 721]

On 7/9/2023 at 8:58 AM, GobbleDog said:

If you've mock drafted you've seen rb's remaining in rd 7, then notice Javonte Williams. You ignore him, but rd 8 and Williams is still there. Rd 9... Williams.

Dude was fantastic before tearing "acl, lcl, and plc" with surgery in late October 2022. That's 10.7 months before week 1. Normal ACL is 9-12 months. Reports are no setbacks (unlike Dobbins) and looks sharp at drills. Sean Peyton will improve the offense, but definitely won't work Williams much the first half of season.

So he won't play much til Week 8ish and might never be good... but a cheap pick for potential second half star. What say ye Geeks?  Who's rolling the acl dice?

ACL recovery is 9-12 months until you can play.

but most players do not return to their full playing ability until closer to 18 months.   There are exceptions to this rule.  ADP did it in less than a year, but hes really the only one I can think of that came back in less than 18 months  and was just as good as he was before.   and he did it in less than a year to boot.   Ever since people have been over estimating the value of players coming back from this injury.     But I've come to the conclusion that ADP is a physical freak (in a good way) who heals phenominally.   Not everyone heals like he does and I dont think you can bet on it.

Williams will play.  I have no doubt of that, but hes a low end RB2 or high end RB3.

Next year I'd bet on a very good year (assuming good health of course)

if you wanna take a chance on him this year, take him one round earler than his ADP comes in at.

Ie. draft as your RB3 and if he gives you RB2 or RB1 numbers you consider it to be a big bonus.

Thats how I'd approach that one.

[GobbleDog 918]

6 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

 draft as your RB3 and if he gives you RB2 or RB1 numbers you consider it to be a big bonus.

Could be a Dobbins situation - comes back too soon and doesn't finish top 50 among Rbs. The few big games Dobbins had he was mostly benched because nobody knew when to start him.

As the 30th Rb off the board, Williams is tempting... we'll see what happens pre-season. If Williams plays well his adp could drop to 5th-6th rd and he'll become someone else's problem.

[makindollaz 51]

3 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Could be a Dobbins situation - comes back too soon and doesn't finish top 50 among Rbs. The few big games Dobbins had he was mostly benched because nobody knew when to start him.

As the 30th Rb off the board, Williams is tempting... we'll see what happens pre-season. If Williams plays well his adp could drop to 5th-6th rd and he'll become someone else's problem.

This is why I’m staying away.  Took Dobbins too early last year and regretted it.

[weepaws 3,023]

I would draft J Williams late in then double digit rounds, he can manage my bench until he’s fully ready to go, but I’m not so sure that’s going to be the case this next season. Imo 

[seafoam1 2,571]

On 7/9/2023 at 4:26 PM, GobbleDog said:

I wouldn't bid much in auction either, but in re-drafts there aren't many "good options" rds 7-9....  D Cook, J Cook, Dillon, Robinson, Jamal Williams, Perine, Penny, etc.... worthless.

Perine won't be useless this year the way I see it. I'll get him in my auction league before some throws Williams out there for bidding as a Williams owner would probably raise the price for him.

[FrancieFootball 85]

I heard on sports radio today that Williams said he's good to go for training camp.

[weepaws 3,023]

I think that’s a very smart thing for J Williams to say.  

[Ray_T 721]

11 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Could be a Dobbins situation - comes back too soon and doesn't finish top 50 among Rbs. The few big games Dobbins had he was mostly benched because nobody knew when to start him.

As the 30th Rb off the board, Williams is tempting... we'll see what happens pre-season. If Williams plays well his adp could drop to 5th-6th rd and he'll become someone else's problem.

well I have done a lot of research into ACL injuries.    

from what I can tell, the first thing to return in the process of rehab is the straight line speed.   the ability to move laterally and make cuts takes a fair bit more time.

sometimes a team can cover up a certain amount of this by not calling as many plays that require certain cuts on the surgically repaired knee.   but generally that part of the game can take a fair bit more time to return. (usually 4-8 months longer than it takes for the straight line speed to return)

unfortunately the ability to make a sharp cut at high speed is what separates the elite backs from the average ones so you will likely see a guy who is not quite as electric.

because of when he did injure himself, he could be poised to have a decent second  half of the season but I wouldnt be prepared for a full return to form for at least one more year.   And if hes limited early in camp or on the PUP list then I'd likely avoid him altogether.  Let someone else take that risk.

 

[weepaws 3,023]

Not an easy injury for any player to return from.  Even though JW is saying that he feels good, that doesn’t mean he’s game ready.  

[Gepetto 1,194]

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/ppr

Javonte Williams 4.09 ADP in 12 team ppr mock drafts

What am I missing with the late rounds being mentioned?

[Belkster 0]

3 hours ago, Ray_T said:

well I have done a lot of research into ACL injuries.    

from what I can tell, the first thing to return in the process of rehab is the straight line speed.   the ability to move laterally and make cuts takes a fair bit more time.

sometimes a team can cover up a certain amount of this by not calling as many plays that require certain cuts on the surgically repaired knee.   but generally that part of the game can take a fair bit more time to return. (usually 4-8 months longer than it takes for the straight line speed to return)

unfortunately the ability to make a sharp cut at high speed is what separates the elite backs from the average ones so you will likely see a guy who is not quite as electric.

because of when he did injure himself, he could be poised to have a decent second  half of the season but I wouldnt be prepared for a full return to form for at least one more year.   And if hes limited early in camp or on the PUP list then I'd likely avoid him altogether.  Let someone else take that risk. 

 

Yes, he should be avoided. It's a dangerous injury and I don't know of anyone who has ever come back into the game quickly enough after it.

[weepaws 3,023]

3 hours ago, Gepetto said:

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/ppr

Javonte Williams 4.09 ADP in 12 team ppr mock drafts

What am I missing with the late rounds being mentioned?

Value. 

[GobbleDog 918]

9 hours ago, Gepetto said:

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/ppr

Javonte Williams 4.09 ADP in 12 team ppr mock drafts

What am I missing with the late rounds being mentioned?

FFCalculator's rankings are all screwed up. Maybe they'll get better near draft day with more mocks, but right now ya can't trust them for spit.

Calvin Ridley's adp is 9.08.?. Ridiculous. Consistently drafted late 4th/early 5th. There's lots of examples. Jav Williams is mid 8th.

FantasyPros and ESPN have real rankings.

[seafoam1 2,571]

On 7/10/2023 at 11:27 AM, Ray_T said:

ACL recovery is 9-12 months until you can play.

but most players do not return to their full playing ability until closer to 18 months.   There are exceptions to this rule.  ADP did it in less than a year, but hes really the only one I can think of that came back in less than 18 months  and was just as good as he was before.   and he did it in less than a year to boot.   Ever since people have been over estimating the value of players coming back from this injury.     But I've come to the conclusion that ADP is a physical freak (in a good way) who heals phenominally.   Not everyone heals like he does and I dont think you can bet on it.

Williams will play.  I have no doubt of that, but hes a low end RB2 or high end RB3.

Next year I'd bet on a very good year (assuming good health of course)

if you wanna take a chance on him this year, take him one round earler than his ADP comes in at.

Ie. draft as your RB3 and if he gives you RB2 or RB1 numbers you consider it to be a big bonus.

Thats how I'd approach that one.

It's not just ACL recovery. Right?

[Ray_T 721]

1 hour ago, seafoam1 said:

It's not just ACL recovery. Right?

yes, and that complicates things for sure.   what I dont know is how that affects the recovery.   to my knowledge (going from memory)ACL is the one that takes longer to heal, so I suspect if there is an issue in recovery, thats likely where the holdup will be.

it wouldnt surprise me if a doc told me it affects the physio and that it will tack some time onto  the recovery but there is not enough data for me to really nail that down and say 'this is how it is'   but from a logical standpoint, this could affect the recovery time.   I just dont know to what extent.

[GobbleDog 918]

On 7/9/2023 at 4:26 PM, GobbleDog said:

I wouldn't bid much in auction either, but in re-drafts there aren't many "good options" rds 7-9....  D Cook, J Cook, Dillon, Robinson, Jamal Williams, Perine, Penny, etc.... worthless.

Need to revise this ... more I hear, more I like Brian Robinson. Inside word is he might be sitting on 250 carries, even if he stinks. And he might not stink as as bad as last year. 8th-9th rd could be sneaky steal.

[weepaws 3,023]

In a .5 or full ppr I would rather wait and see if I can land Gibson.   

[League Champion 1,790]

I think he's a steal in best ball drafts but I'd be reluctant to reach for him in redraft. I'd feel comfortable if he was my RB4 . 

[weepaws 3,023]

Wasn’t placed on the pup list.  That’s good news.  

[Ray_T 721]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Wasn’t placed on the pup list.  That’s good news.  

very good news.

a bit surprising.    but I'll take it.  I like him as a player. I"d like to see him have a good year.

I"m still a bit skeptical but feeling better about him

[IGotWorms 4,053]

Perine sucks. Pass on that jag.

Javonte is a GREAT deal this year. I would gladly spend a 7th or 8th round pick on him and probably even a 6th if I had to 

[Ray_T 721]

32 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Perine sucks. Pass on that jag.

Javonte is a GREAT deal this year. I would gladly spend a 7th or 8th round pick on him and probably even a 6th if I had to 

agree on Perine.

only reason people are drafting him is because Javonte is coming back from an ACL injury.

Sadly Javonte wont be himself until the second half of the year at the earliest.   More likely hes a good pick next year.  I love the talent.

with the injury I do think hes still better than Perine, but not by enough.  This is a backfield you likely want to avoid this year unless you are getting these guys on the cheap. 

[IGotWorms 4,053]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

agree on Perine.

only reason people are drafting him is because Javonte is coming back from an ACL injury.

Sadly Javonte wont be himself until the second half of the year at the earliest.   More likely hes a good pick next year.  I love the talent.

with the injury I do think hes still better than Perine, but not by enough.  This is a backfield you likely want to avoid this year unless you are getting these guys on the cheap. 

You may have to be patient on Javonte, but I believe he will pay off. Denver’s arrow is pointing up and a rising tide lifts all boats 

[weepaws 3,023]

For a guy who will start the season as the Broncos rb1, Perine ADP is very good value.  He’s shown rb4, in the ninth rd.  Oh I like that. 

[Ray_T 721]

15 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

You may have to be patient on Javonte, but I believe he will pay off. Denver’s arrow is pointing up and a rising tide lifts all boats 

I do think the Denver Offense will be better.

I think the defense was already pretty solid.   but a better performing offense will actually help the defense just because the defense will spend less time on the field.

either way, I fully agree the offense will be better.  not keen on paying for a guy in his first year back from an ACL injury.  in the july mock he was drafted in the low end RB3 territory which I think is appropriate given his injury.

in Dynasty or keeper league format if I was a rebuilding team,  I'd be picking him up.  no doubt about that.

[IGotWorms 4,053]

28 minutes ago, weepaws said:

For a guy who will start the season as the Broncos rb1, Perine ADP is very good value.  He’s shown rb4, in the ninth rd.  Oh I like that. 

Perine has been around for seven seasons and hasn’t had more than 95 carries since his rookie year (when he had a putrid 3.4ypc and just one TD).

He’s had seven TDs his whole career and a career ypc of 4.0.

Now, in his eighth season, he’s going to suddenly bloom into an adequate full time starter (or at least a very good change of pace guy)? I ain’t buying it.

But that said, if the price is right, sure he could be worth a shot I suppose. I’ll pass but I can see where others may differ 

[weepaws 3,023]

With uncertainty to when J Williams will be fully ready to go, and not knowing if he will have any set backs like Dobbins last season, I think Perine in the 9th as a rb4 is a great buy.   

Ps he’s has 7 rushing tds, but in my two ff leagues we count rec tds also, so that would give him 12 tds  

thanks  

But I hope others in my two leagues pass on him.  

[GobbleDog 918]

7 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

Perine has been around for seven seasons and hasn’t had more than 95 carries since his rookie year (when he had a putrid 3.4ypc and just one TD).

He’s had seven TDs his whole career and a career ypc of 4.0.

Which is why it's stunning the Broncos didn't draft a Rb, didn't sign an undrafted Rb, and haven't signed any big name vets... Hunt, Cook, Zeke, Fournette. 

Denver had 8 Rbs play last year, only two are still on the team - Williams and Badie, the rest released.  Broncos currently list four Rbs on depth chart - Williams, Perine, Jones Jr., Badie.

25 yo Tony Jones Jr. undrafted in 2020. Powerback played for Notre Dame. Signed by Saints, then Seattle, and now Denver (signed March).  2.4 yd career average and still hasn't scored a TD. 

23 yo Tyler Badie 2022 6th rd pick Ravens, waived preseason. Signed with Denver Week 18... got 1 carry, 1 rec, and 1 TD.  Pass catching back out of Missouri. 

Last but least...  27 yo Samaje Perine 2017 4th rd pick Redskins. Now on his 5th NFL team. Surprisingly decent receiver, despite 236 lbs. One thing to note he wasn't cut by the Bengals, but turned down their similar offer as Broncos.  Signed March.

So what is Denver thinking?  Turn a hobbled star and 3 bums, into a decent rotation? Perhaps waiting to see if that works, and ready to sign a big name vet if needed.?.  Don't think I want any part of this.