Jahmyr Gibbs

[tiggo25 4]

What's your thoughts on Gibbs this year?  Lot of Bijan hype , but also hearing some good things about Gibbs.  

Will this be a 50/50 timeshare with Montgomery and Gibbs taking more of the share as the season progresses?

I'm in a 14 team league with 4 keepers.  Targeting Gibbs and leaning on taking him at 1.08 (If he's available).  I also have 1.12.  Already confirmed Bijan Robinson is going 1.01.  

Also considering moving up in the draft to draft him.  I have some players that I'm not keeping to package with 1.12 to move up.

I've traded some pieces for a younger team with a win next year approach.  I intend to compete this year, but the plan was to get players to win next year.  So far my keepers are: Etienne, Ridley, London, Kelce.

[Showboat 247]

My opinion is that Montgomery will take on the Jamaal Williams role with Gibbs in the Swift role.  I see a bit of risk that Montgomery will take a lot of red-zone scoring opportunities making Gibbs a potentially frustrating player to own this year - if PPR, that may offset the TDs that get vultured by Montgomery.

[weepaws 3,008]

Think wants being forgotten is that Montgomery is a good player in the passing game, the sixty games he’s played in , he has 155 rec. 

I think Montgomery will have a big roll on the Lions off , he’s going to take over j Williams short yardage job, in which Williams registered a lot of short tds, plus he won the eliminated from the passing game entirely, I keep seeing that the lions have used Gibbs out wide.  

I think Gibbs is a very good player, with limitations, I like him more in a full ppr redraft then in a keeper league imo.  

Plus here is comes again, I’m sorry, but once again another keeper league owner talking about going with the approach of competing this season, but winning next season, in ff some reason that just seems nuts.  I play in two big money leagues, I can’t imagine that approach to competing,   So I need to ask, is this a free league? If not what are you playing for? 

[Ray_T 719]

13 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Think wants being forgotten is that Montgomery is a good player in the passing game, the sixty games he’s played in , he has 155 rec. 

I think Montgomery will have a big roll on the Lions off , he’s going to take over j Williams short yardage job, in which Williams registered a lot of short tds, plus he won the eliminated from the passing game entirely, I keep seeing that the lions have used Gibbs out wide.  

we dont agree on everything, but we do agree on this.  

Montgomery will run between the tackles and can catch passes.   This will hurt Gibbs value but not as much as some think.  if they line him up at WR or the slot a fair bit of the time we could be looking at a similar role to Deebo except he is listed at RB while Deebo is listed at WR.

I think they will run a lot of 2 RB sets where he splits out wide before the snap and runs a pass route.

but I also think that he will catch more passes than fftoday has predicted but will also get less carries than they predict.   in the end it will be a wash.  the prediction in terms of overall fantasy points is in the ballpark.   I just disagree a bit on how to arrive at that final number.

He holds high value in PPR.   mediocre value in standard leagues.   Thats my opinion.

[polecatt 471]

I don't know much about him other than he's being hyped the 2nd most of the rookie RBs.

I think people tend to over rate rookie RBs sometimes.

People are saying Bijan should be the top overall pick sometimes. Atlanta isn't exactly the best spot and they have two other decent RBs.

I know RBs adjust to the NFL better than any other position, but that said, they still often have a bit of a learning curve.

Detroit isn't a bad spot and Gibbs should get plenty of opportunities. I would temper expectations a bit though before seeing him play a down.

I would say he's a RB2/flex play at best this season. Maybe he blows up but that's not something to bank on.

[makindollaz 51]

If 56 are being kept, and you have the 8th pick, you may need to move up to get him.

His ADP is in the mid-30’s.

[weepaws 3,008]

ADP early 7th rd, and rb ranking of late rb3 I think Montgomery is a very value.  

[weepaws 3,008]

1 hour ago, polecatt said:

I don't know much about him other than he's being hyped the 2nd most of the rookie RBs.

I think people tend to over rate rookie RBs sometimes.

People are saying Bijan should be the top overall pick sometimes. Atlanta isn't exactly the best spot and they have two other decent RBs.

I know RBs adjust to the NFL better than any other position, but that said, they still often have a bit of a learning curve.

Detroit isn't a bad spot and Gibbs should get plenty of opportunities. I would temper expectations a bit though before seeing him play a down.

I would say he's a RB2/flex play at best this season. Maybe he blows up but that's not something to bank on.

True that. 

[Ray_T 719]

2 hours ago, polecatt said:

I don't know much about him other than he's being hyped the 2nd most of the rookie RBs.

I think people tend to over rate rookie RBs sometimes.

People are saying Bijan should be the top overall pick sometimes. Atlanta isn't exactly the best spot and they have two other decent RBs.

I know RBs adjust to the NFL better than any other position, but that said, they still often have a bit of a learning curve.

Detroit isn't a bad spot and Gibbs should get plenty of opportunities. I would temper expectations a bit though before seeing him play a down.

I would say he's a RB2/flex play at best this season. Maybe he blows up but that's not something to bank on.

I like him better in dynasty than I currently do in redraft.   I'll say that much

[JagFan 129]

I don’t see anything special about Gibbs.  He had 10 total TDs (7 rush, 3 rec) last year.  Yes, that’s a good number for a college RB relatively speaking, but being the RB for a Bama team that scores at will isn’t the typical situation.  
I get why you’re asking the question, but this isn’t the guy you want to talk yourself into.  Not only should you not trade up, but you should pass on him unless he comes to you at a dart throw price.

[tiggo25 4]

16 hours ago, weepaws said:

Think wants being forgotten is that Montgomery is a good player in the passing game, the sixty games he’s played in , he has 155 rec. 

I think Montgomery will have a big roll on the Lions off , he’s going to take over j Williams short yardage job, in which Williams registered a lot of short tds, plus he won the eliminated from the passing game entirely, I keep seeing that the lions have used Gibbs out wide.  

I think Gibbs is a very good player, with limitations, I like him more in a full ppr redraft then in a keeper league imo.  

Agree.  Until he can handle pass blocking, his time could be limited.  This is PPR but disagree with redraft.  Value seems to be much more in Keeper, especially as a rookie this year with Monty on the roster.

[tiggo25 4]

16 hours ago, weepaws said:

Plus here is comes again, I’m sorry, but once again another keeper league owner talking about going with the approach of competing this season, but winning next season, in ff some reason that just seems nuts.  I play in two big money leagues, I can’t imagine that approach to competing,   So I need to ask, is this a free league? If not what are you playing for? 

Why provide good insight then be a douche with your next breath?  I took over a crap team with very bad keepers.   With 4 keepers there isn't much available in the player pool.  So you either look to win current year, or build for next year.  I'm choosing to build for next year and possibly be competitive this year.  Sorry you can't comprehend that.

[tiggo25 4]

16 hours ago, Ray_T said:

we dont agree on everything, but we do agree on this.  

Montgomery will run between the tackles and can catch passes.   This will hurt Gibbs value but not as much as some think.  if they line him up at WR or the slot a fair bit of the time we could be looking at a similar role to Deebo except he is listed at RB while Deebo is listed at WR.

I think they will run a lot of 2 RB sets where he splits out wide before the snap and runs a pass route.

but I also think that he will catch more passes than fftoday has predicted but will also get less carries than they predict.   in the end it will be a wash.  the prediction in terms of overall fantasy points is in the ballpark.   I just disagree a bit on how to arrive at that final number.

He holds high value in PPR.   mediocre value in standard leagues.   Thats my opinion.

Thanks for the insight.  I agree but I'm thinking we'll see more volume second half of the year as he learns the system.  I guess the opposite is true if he can't pass block and get used to the speed of the NFL.  But I'm an optimist on Gibbs.

[tiggo25 4]

16 hours ago, makindollaz said:

If 56 are being kept, and you have the 8th pick, you may need to move up to get him.

His ADP is in the mid-30’s.

Yep my thoughts exactly.

[tiggo25 4]

13 hours ago, JagFan said:

I don’t see anything special about Gibbs.  He had 10 total TDs (7 rush, 3 rec) last year.  Yes, that’s a good number for a college RB relatively speaking, but being the RB for a Bama team that scores at will isn’t the typical situation.  
I get why you’re asking the question, but this isn’t the guy you want to talk yourself into.  Not only should you not trade up, but you should pass on him unless he comes to you at a dart throw price.

Good point.  And you're right, maybe I'm talking myself into this pick with blinders on.  Let's see how he performs preseason for a better assessment.

[tiggo25 4]

16 hours ago, polecatt said:

I don't know much about him other than he's being hyped the 2nd most of the rookie RBs.

I think people tend to over rate rookie RBs sometimes.

People are saying Bijan should be the top overall pick sometimes. Atlanta isn't exactly the best spot and they have two other decent RBs.

I know RBs adjust to the NFL better than any other position, but that said, they still often have a bit of a learning curve.

Detroit isn't a bad spot and Gibbs should get plenty of opportunities. I would temper expectations a bit though before seeing him play a down.

I would say he's a RB2/flex play at best this season. Maybe he blows up but that's not something to bank on.

Thanks man!  RB2 is decent with upside considering we are essentially starting our draft in the 5th round.

[weepaws 3,008]

41 minutes ago, tiggo25 said:

Why provide good insight then be a douche with your next breath?  I took over a crap team with very bad keepers.   With 4 keepers there isn't much available in the player pool.  So you either look to win current year, or build for next year.  I'm choosing to build for next year and possibly be competitive this year.  Sorry you can't comprehend that.

I don’t comprehend that.  But I guess that’s the way some people play ff. Thanks. 

[The Commish 2022 1]

I like Robinson more than I do Gibbs.  Gibbs has that Sproles feel to me.  I drafted Swift as a rookie, and lived through that inconsistent nightmare and he's smaller than Swift.  I get the whole trying to plan for the future part, I took over a crappy team and now 2 yrs after winning it all I got a team full of boom or bust players.  I chose not to move up in the draft cause I didn't want gibbs and I'm sure that Robinson is going number #1.  I know Eckler is a beast in FFB, but Gibbs is also smaller than him and has a bigger back in the line up in Montgomery. Montgomery is a 4 down back and I see Gibbs as a boom or bust 'gadget' player (RB playing WR, or wildcat).  My $0.02

[GobbleDog 918]

Gibbs problem will likely be modest Tds. But - receptions, yardage, and rare Tds should be enough for 15th. Rb 14 doesn't leave much value, but can't imagine he finishes much lower in ppr, so he's sorta "safe" in that respect. Too bad he won't get goal line work, because he'd have top 5-10 upside.

Seems like Swift / Williams all over again. Swift finished 22nd in ppr, but missed three games so probably would've been 16th or so. I expect similar from Gibbs.

 

[The Commish 2022 1]

At 1.08 I'd go QB if Young/Stroud's available.

[The Commish 2022 1]

28 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Gibbs problem will likely be modest Tds. But - receptions, yardage, and rare Tds should be enough for 15th. Rb 14 doesn't leave much value, but can't imagine he finishes much lower in ppr, so he's sorta "safe" in that respect. Too bad he won't get goal line work, because he'd have top 5-10 upside.

Seems like Swift / Williams all over again. Swift finished 22nd in ppr, but missed three games so probably would've been 16th or so. I expect similar from Gibbs.

 

I agree, it's like they said....we'll go younger with Williams and healthier with Swift.

[WhiteWonder 2,480]

20 hours ago, tiggo25 said:

What's your thoughts on Gibbs this year?  Lot of Bijan hype , but also hearing some good things about Gibbs.  

Will this be a 50/50 timeshare with Montgomery and Gibbs taking more of the share as the season progresses?

I'm in a 14 team league with 4 keepers.  Targeting Gibbs and leaning on taking him at 1.08 (If he's available).  I also have 1.12.  Already confirmed Bijan Robinson is going 1.01.  

Also considering moving up in the draft to draft him.  I have some players that I'm not keeping to package with 1.12 to move up.

I've traded some pieces for a younger team with a win next year approach.  I intend to compete this year, but the plan was to get players to win next year.  So far my keepers are: Etienne, Ridley, London, Kelce.

 

19 hours ago, makindollaz said:

If 56 are being kept, and you have the 8th pick, you may need to move up to get him.

His ADP is in the mid-30’s.

 

Gibbs is an early 4th rounder in 12 team redrafts with no keepers. Without knowing your exact keeper rules, I am guessing much of the first 3-4 rounds are already being kept. (assuming each team can keep 4 with no round values, etc) There might be some talent floating around based on some QBs being kept that normally go after round 4 or bad teams without much talent as keepers. 

I would say it's no guarantee that Gibbs would be there at pick 8. If he is, i'd definitely take him. 

[IGotWorms 4,028]

I really only like Bijan in redraft. And even him, he’ll be drafted too high for my liking

[kilroy69 1,162]

he is going to be used as slot wr a lot with the other dumb fock getting suspended. 

[wizbang 10]

Some wild takes here like avoiding rookie RBs. Rookie RBs taken in the first two rounds historically return excellent value. This article is a bit old and RBs aren’t drafted in the first round much anymore.  It is clear though, the ones who earn a big role tend to do very well (Gibbs will have a huge role). Bijan’s best comp is Barkley based on draft capital and he was #1 overall as a rookie. Passing on rookie RBs who have earned a big role is for sure a losing strategy. Heck, Doug Martin was the #2 overall RB his rookie season and never whiffed that success again. 
 

Regarding Montgomery, he is absolutely just a guy. The Lions like him plenty and I think he will get around 200ish carries. That still leaves 250+ touches for Gibbs on one of the highest scoring teams in the NFL. The Lions ran 480 times last season. Atlanta ran a staggering 559 times!  Allgeier can get 250 Carrie’s and Bijan can still push for 300 touches. These were two of the most running heavy teams and have the same coaches in place.  They’re using the RBs. A LOT. 
 

Montgomery was severely outplayed by Herbert and has a pedestrian 3.9 YPC for his career.  He isn’t going to plant Gibbs on the bench, he’s a compliment. The Lions will use Gibbs like a #12 overall selection barring injury.  Camp reports have been glowing. 
 

You might not like his ADP, but passing on Gibbs because of Montgomery or being a rookie isn’t supported by evidence. 
 

https://www.rotoballer.com/are-rookie-running-backs-undervalued-in-fantasy/904045

 

here is the text from a tweet on the subject:

RBs taken in the top 12 of the NFL Draft have been immediate fantasy studs. Rookie season points per game since 2012:

Saquon Barkley: RB2

Leonard Fournette: RB8

Ezekiel Elliott: RB3

Todd Gurley: RB5

Trent Richardson: RB7

Christian McCaffrey: RB13

[GobbleDog 918]

12 hours ago, wizbang said:

RBs taken in the top 12 of the NFL Draft have been immediate fantasy studs. Rookie season points per game since 2012:

Surprisingly true after Google search.  You'd expect some Rbs among that "top 12 pick" qualifier in the last 20 years, to fall below expectations but no. Though it's a small sample.  Makes sense teams with a top 12 pick would work-horse that Rb, especially 5 to 10+ years ago. Though teams have changed to more committee in recent years.

With a larger sample size I'd give more credence to "other top Rb picks did this - so he'll do this" logic. But we only have 6, some from a different era. As I said I think Gibbs adp is reasonable and expect 15+- finish. I like Montgomery more than you, but sounds like we're nearly on the same page.

 

[Ray_T 719]

4 hours ago, wizbang said:

Some wild takes here like avoiding rookie RBs. Rookie RBs taken in the first two rounds historically return excellent value. This article is a bit old and RBs aren’t drafted in the first round much anymore.  It is clear though, the ones who earn a big role tend to do very well (Gibbs will have a huge role). Bijan’s best comp is Barkley based on draft capital and he was #1 overall as a rookie. Passing on rookie RBs who have earned a big role is for sure a losing strategy. Heck, Doug Martin was the #2 overall RB his rookie season and never whiffed that success again. 
 

Regarding Montgomery, he is absolutely just a guy. The Lions like him plenty and I think he will get around 200ish carries. That still leaves 250+ touches for Gibbs on one of the highest scoring teams in the NFL. The Lions ran 480 times last season. Atlanta ran a staggering 559 times!  Allgeier can get 250 Carrie’s and Bijan can still push for 300 touches. These were two of the most running heavy teams and have the same coaches in place.  They’re using the RBs. A LOT. 
 

Montgomery was severely outplayed by Herbert and has a pedestrian 3.9 YPC for his career.  He isn’t going to plant Gibbs on the bench, he’s a compliment. The Lions will use Gibbs like a #12 overall selection barring injury.  Camp reports have been glowing. 
 

You might not like his ADP, but passing on Gibbs because of Montgomery or being a rookie isn’t supported by evidence. 
 

https://www.rotoballer.com/are-rookie-running-backs-undervalued-in-fantasy/904045

 

here is the text from a tweet on the subject:

RBs taken in the top 12 of the NFL Draft have been immediate fantasy studs. Rookie season points per game since 2012:

Saquon Barkley: RB2

Leonard Fournette: RB8

Ezekiel Elliott: RB3

Todd Gurley: RB5

Trent Richardson: RB7

Christian McCaffrey: RB13

honestly Top RB's are more likely to step in and perform as rookies if the O line is reasonable.   TE's and QB's rarely light it up as rookies and WR will occasionally do it but with WR its a little harder to get in tune with the offense if the route running isnt there or if the QB isnt great. (as is sometimes the case with early round picks)

[weepaws 3,008]

I still I feel like in mocks that I’m stealing Montgomery, his ADP is four rounds later, I like Montgomery.  He can catch , he can run, he can take over the job given to J Williams.  

Ps I don’t thing Goff or the Lions offense will be the same has last season, I don’t trust Goff to have the same season he had last season.  

So I think there will be a fall off a little bit.  

[League Champion 1,790]

6 hours ago, weepaws said:

still I feel like in mocks that I’m stealing Montgomery, 

I agree . He's going in the RB2 range which is mind blowing. He's been one of my targets 

[Ray_T 719]

2 hours ago, League Champion said:

I agree . He's going in the RB2 range which is mind blowing. He's been one of my targets 

well, people are down on him because hes no longer an RB1.    but he really only had one (maybe 2) seasons where he was

most of his career hes been a mid to high end RB2.   part of this is because hes been on a crappy team for sure.

that said, the more I see them the more I think hes still an RB2.   likely low to mid range RB2.   

I think we see a lot of first and second down plays where Gibbs is lined up wide or in the slot while Montgomery is in the backfield.   we will also see plays with both in the backfield and one or both can (and will) go out for a pass.    Because Montcomery can catch and run this gives them the latitude to explore some of Gibbs 'other' skills to see what he can do.

in the end, I think this team ends up with two RB's who both put up RB2 numbers.

Thats not a terrible thing for the team.   its not ideal for fantasy but if you know where the players value is, you can make a good decision on when to take them

[weepaws 3,008]

If they both end up rb2, then the Montgomery owners is much happier then the Gibbs owner.  So I want Montgomery 

[kilroy69 1,162]

It is going to be a thunder and lightning type of backfield with Gibbs being used in the slot a lot. They are both going to have value. 

[Ray_T 719]

16 minutes ago, weepaws said:

If they both end up rb2, then the Montgomery owners is much happier then the Gibbs owner.  So I want Montgomery 

well I dont disagree.   Montgomery is still listed as the RB1 for the team as well, so that should tell you something.

though in a case like this, the label RB1 or RB2 is like not of any huge consequence other than the fact it truly looks like a time share.   so no Bell cow.

and it is very hard to justify drafting either as an RB1 because of this.    while it is certainly possible in PPR that both could put up low end RB1 stats I'd be surprised if it happened.  Everything would need to go right for both RB's and the team for this to happen.   it is more likely both are middling to low end RB2.   I'm leaning towards mid range RB2 personally as I like the offense but there is more risk there than an average RB2 so I'd draft as a low end RB2(or close to their ADP.... whichever is the lower of the two) and if I got better production than what I drafted for I'd be happy.

[wizbang 10]

22 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Surprisingly true after Google search.  You'd expect some Rbs among that "top 12 pick" qualifier in the last 20 years, to fall below expectations but no. Though it's a small sample.  Makes sense teams with a top 12 pick would work-horse that Rb, especially 5 to 10+ years ago. Though teams have changed to more committee in recent years.

With a larger sample size I'd give more credence to "other top Rb picks did this - so he'll do this" logic. But we only have 6, some from a different era. As I said I think Gibbs adp is reasonable and expect 15+- finish. I like Montgomery more than you, but sounds like we're nearly on the same page.

The Rotoballer link has a larger sample size and shows rookies taken outside the first.  The overwhelming take away is rookie RBs who earn a big role, almost regardless of where they are drafted, do very well.  Early first rounders simply fall in this category of having big rookie roles more often due to draft capital / talent.  That article has lots of evidence that’s difficult to ignore.  The only wildcard seems to be injury, but that’s true for anyone.

[GobbleDog 918]

2 hours ago, wizbang said:

The Rotoballer link has a larger sample size and shows rookies taken outside the first.  The overwhelming take away is rookie RBs who earn a big role, almost regardless of where they are drafted, do very well.  Early first rounders simply fall in this category of having big rookie roles more often due to draft capital / talent.  That article has lots of evidence that’s difficult to ignore.  The only wildcard seems to be injury, but that’s true for anyone.

Probably true and it makes sense an early Rb pick would get a big workload - obviously talented and low drafting teams likely needs help. I just don't put credence in the "he was drafted here, so he'll do this" thinking.

Ever watch the popular Fantasy Footballers on Youtube?  A month ago one of the "experts" explained why Dameon Pierce won't do well this year. Metrics? Situation? Injury? Nope, "historically 4th round Rbs haven't done well. Here's the history of 4th rd rb success..."  I think Pierce will be very good this year based on metrics/situation and rec should increase given new coaches, but if he doesn't do well it sure as hell won't have anything to do with him being a 4th rd pick in '22. I'm weary of that type of "logic."

[wizbang 10]

49 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Probably true and it makes sense an early Rb pick would get a big workload - obviously talented and low drafting teams likely needs help. I just don't put credence in the "he was drafted here, so he'll do this" thinking.

Ever watch to the popular Fantasy Footballers on Youtube?  A month ago one of the "experts" explained why Dameon Pierce won't do well this year. Metrics? Situation? Injury? Nope, "historically 4th round Rbs haven't done well. Here's the history of 4th rd rb success..."  I think Pierce will be very good this year based on metrics/situation and rec should increase given new coaches, but if he doesn't do well it sure as hell won't have anything to do with him being a 4th rd pick in '22. I'm weary of that type of "logic."

The fallacy many fall for is rookies do worse than 2nd year back. That is entirely based on opportunity. Rookies often do not get opportunity. Those who do produce. Way more than older backs. Many people can’t process this information correctly. 

[Gepetto 1,192]

4 keepers is not a dynasty league, it's a keeper league. Gibbs is way too high; he's drafted to high in redraft and keeper leagues. Ignore Gibbs. Draft Montgomery in the mid-rounds.

[Gepetto 1,192]

I don't draft, in ppr, Darren Sproles or Danny Woodhead types. I draft RBs that get a lot of carries, touchdowns, and a handful of catches every week too, not guys that are dependent on getting 10 catches. 

I have nothing against rookies and think Bijan Robinson and Anthony Richardson are great high picks in FF, even in redraft leagues.