This economy is so bad

[Engorgeous George 1,781]

Early indications in the market futures are that the markets love Trump being voted in, or Harris being voted out.  The Dow looks to open up over 1000 points up.

[RLLD 3,928]

25 minutes ago, Engorgeous George said:

Early indications in the market futures are that the markets love Trump being voted in, or Harris being voted out.  The Dow looks to open up over 1000 points up.

Pump your brakes....

I would not be inclined to use the markets as an indication of anything.

Moreover, there is work to be done.  And in order to fix the damage done, we have to be ready to face some challenges.  

Enjoy the day, by all means, but just understand that all the focked up sh!t Democrats have done over the last four years will NOT be easy to fix.

[Engorgeous George 1,781]

1 minute ago, RLLD said:

Pump your brakes....

I would not be inclined to use the markets as an indication of anything.

Moreover, there is work to be done.  And in order to fix the damage done, we have to be ready to face some challenges.  

Enjoy the day, by all means, but just understand that all the focked up sh!t Democrats have done over the last four years will NOT be easy to fix.

Oh I appreciate the futures are a fleeting indicator and by the end of the week the markets may be down, but I did find the initial reaction interesting.

[thegeneral 2,496]

The economy is great again!

[RLLD 3,928]

Rink

Quote

“I know people are going to talk about misinformation and the dumbing down of society, I understand all of that, but you don’t have to be intelligent to know you can’t pay your bills. You don’t have to be intelligent to know you can’t afford groceries.”

 

Gaslighting the voters was a bad idea....pretending they were not suffering was a bad idea.....telling them the economy is "great" just p!ssed them off....

I just wanted to thank Liberals, for refusing to accept reality.....without you, Trump may not have been this successful......

[TimHauck 2,449]

23 hours ago, RLLD said:

Pump your brakes....

I would not be inclined to use the markets as an indication of anything.

Moreover, there is work to be done.  And in order to fix the damage done, we have to be ready to face some challenges.  

Enjoy the day, by all means, but just understand that all the focked up sh!t Democrats have done over the last four years will NOT be easy to fix.

Shocker, already setting the stage to blame Democrats if the economy gets worse.

I’m most concerned about Musk’s goal of gutting the federal government.  Yes, it should help in the long-run, but that’s years away, and it’s also not really Democrats’ (especially recent Democrats’) fault it got to the size it did, the number of Federal employees is actually less than it was in the late 80’s/early 90’s.

There are 3 million federal employees, so based on Musk’s track record we could be looking at 1 million plus heading to unemployment.  And also likely impacts on private sector businesses that depend on government contracts.

 

[RLLD 3,928]

Just now, TimHauck said:

Shocker, already setting the stage to blame Democrats if the economy gets worse.

I’m most concerned about Musk’s goal of gutting the federal government.  Yes, it should help in the long-run, but that’s years away, and it’s also not really Democrats’ (especially recent Democrats’) fault it got to the size it did, the number of Federal employees is actually less than it was in the late 80’s/early 90’s.

There are 3 million federal employees, so based on Musk’s track record we could be looking at 1 million plus heading to unemployment.  And also likely impacts on private sector businesses that depend on government contracts.

 

There is no reason to believe the economy will get worse, and every reason to believe it will improve.   I get some sense that people think the mere presence of Trump is somehow a "fix" and I think people need to recognize how hard it will be to fix this problem. I disdain when people point to some univariate factor as a suggestion the something as complex as the national economy is doing well; especially when people have been suffering....so I might as folks to show some restraint and not latch on to the shiny object.

Now, that being said we already know Trumps policies work because they already worked once, hence people voting him in and Democrats out.

I look forward to see him implement some simple things from the jump.  Whereas Biden stupidly announced his intent to go after the energy sector out of the gate Trump will do the opposite and that has teeth. It takes anywhere from 90 to 120 days for the markets to respond to this in a way the manifests in prices....not just for gas, but across the board....immediate relief is what people will get, and thank god for that....

 

[TimHauck 2,449]

2 minutes ago, RLLD said:

There is no reason to believe the economy will get worse, and every reason to believe it will improve.   I get some sense that people think the mere presence of Trump is somehow a "fix" and I think people need to recognize how hard it will be to fix this problem. I disdain when people point to some univariate factor as a suggestion the something as complex as the national economy is doing well; especially when people have been suffering....so I might as folks to show some restraint and not latch on to the shiny object.

Now, that being said we already know Trumps policies work because they already worked once, hence people voting him in and Democrats out.

I look forward to see him implement some simple things from the jump.  Whereas Biden stupidly announced his intent to go after the energy sector out of the gate Trump will do the opposite and that has teeth. It takes anywhere from 90 to 120 days for the markets to respond to this in a way the manifests in prices....not just for gas, but across the board....immediate relief is what people will get, and thank god for that....

 

You literally just said “we have to be ready to face some challenges.”  That sure sounds like a belief that the economy could get worse to me.

[Sean Mooney 1,815]

Some real talk on the economy:

Both sides provided here- first why the economy stings right now and then why many of the underlying metrics are good even if we are not seeing that daily just yet:

 

Quote

 

Why the US economy stings so much

Housing: America’s home prices have reached new record highs for 15 straight months. That’s great news if you own a home — and not so great if you don’t, especially with mortgage rates remaining stubbornly high, just below 7%. That’s why a record low 2.5% of homes switched owners this year, the lowest in 30 years, according to Redfin.

Rent isn’t offering much relief: About half of American renters shelled out more than 30% of their income on rent in 2023. Households that spend more than 30% of their income on rent, mortgage payments or other housing costs are considered “cost-burdened” by the US Department of Housing and Urban Development.

The housing affordability crisis has helped exacerbate America’s wealth gap, leaving people who are forced to move or don’t own a home in a financial bind. But many people who are hardly poor are also struggling to get by, largely because of how much it costs to live in a home: A fifth of US households that earn more than $150,000 a year are living paycheck to paycheck, according to a Bank of America survey.

Prices: Inflation is back to normal. But that doesn’t mean prices are falling — they’re just not rising at the alarming level they were a couple of years ago. 

Prices are roughly 20% higher now than they were when Biden took office, leaving Americans with a daily reminder of how much inflation stinks every time they go to the store. Gas prices have fallen dramatically over the past couple of years, sinking from a record average high of above $5 in 2022 to below $3 a gallon in many states now. That has helped, but not solved, the inflation problems many Americans continue to face on a daily basis.

Politics: A lot of how you feel about the economy depends on your politics. And the number of registered Republicans in America is growing.

A recent study from the Brookings Institution, released last week, found a correlation between economic sentiment and political affiliation with the party in control of the White House. When Trump took office, Republican economic sentiment surged, while Democratic sentiment cratered. The opposite happened when Biden took office.

But Republicans are three times more likely to think the economy is good when a Republican is in office than Democrats when a Democrat holds the White House — and the reverse is true, too.

 

 

 

Quote

 

Still, Trump will be inheriting a strong economy — on paper, anyway.

Jobs: The biggest indicator of economic security is whether or not you have a job, and a historically high percentage of people do. Even though the unemployment rate has been ticking higher over the past year, at 4.1%, it remains at a very healthy level, rising incrementally from the lowest unemployment rate since the first moon landing.

The US economy’s job-creation machine has slowed this year — particularly in recent months. Last month, the economy added just 12,000 jobs. Still, the economy is continuing to add a monthly average of 170,000 jobs this year, which is almost exactly the number the economy added during the first three years of the Trump administration, before Covid hit (175,000 jobs per month).

Companies are still clamoring so much for workers that the number of job listings is greater than the number of American job seekers, according the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

GDP: The broadest measure of the US economy is booming. Gross domestic product grew at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 2.8% last quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Wednesday. That’s a healthy pace by any measure, and it’s on par with the economic expansion during the Trump administration, when people were feeling much better about the state of the economy.

It has also made America’s economy the envy of the world: Projected US economic growth for this year remains the strongest of any of the G7 economies, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Paychecks: Workers’ paychecks aren’t booming like they were a couple years ago when inflation was truly off the rails. But they’re still growing at a 3.9% adjusted rate, according to the Department of Labor. That’s still a faster clip than inflation, which means the amount of money Americans have to spend is growing.

Inflation-adjusted disposable income per capita rose for the 27th straight month, according to the BEA, the longest streak on record.

Consumerism: Despite polls to the contrary, consumers are acting like the economy is great. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of America’s economy, is surging, rising 3.7% last quarter, the highest rate of growth since the first quarter of 2023, according to the BEA.

And consumer confidence is on the rise, too — it surged in October by the largest amount in any survey since March 2021. Still, it remains well below where it was before the pandemic, during Trump’s first term.

 

 

[RLLD 3,928]

1 minute ago, TimHauck said:

You literally just said “we have to be ready to face some challenges.”  That sure sounds like a belief that the economy could get worse to me.

I think that is a stretch in terms of interpretation.

Inflation is a beast....and absolutely monster.....and fighting it is hard and can take years, sometimes decades..... allowing it to manifest is just horrible.....its like letting cancer grow without treatment.

So yeah, fighting it off is going to be hard....the Fed has the biggest job here.  Trump will foment growth and the Fed is going to have to fight like hell to control inflation as economic improvements become abundant under Trump.   One of my complaints with Trump was when he complained about the Fed response to his prior economic growth....he has to let them be.....

[Sean Mooney 1,815]

8 minutes ago, RLLD said:

I think that is a stretch in terms of interpretation.

Inflation is a beast....and absolutely monster.....and fighting it is hard and can take years, sometimes decades..... allowing it to manifest is just horrible.....its like letting cancer grow without treatment.

So yeah, fighting it off is going to be hard....the Fed has the biggest job here.  Trump will foment growth and the Fed is going to have to fight like hell to control inflation as economic improvements become abundant under Trump.   One of my complaints with Trump was when he complained about the Fed response to his prior economic growth....he has to let them be.....

Inflation has been receding for 6 months now and is essentially at where it was in January/February/March of 2020

[RLLD 3,928]

2 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

Inflation has been receding for 6 months now and is essentially at where it was in January/February/March of 2020

I know.....I know.......they are harming people less and less.......but still harming....

Moreover, drops with inflation do not mean relief......prices stay high, the impacts of inflation do not simply abate in lock step with its lowering......thats not how this all works....the markets have to wring it out of the system, and that takes time.....and given the gravity of what was done over these last four years it will take considerable time to wring it out.....

THAT is why its such a beast.....it does not simply "go away"....

[League Champion 1,790]

11 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

Inflation has been receding for 6 months now and is essentially at where it was in January/February/March of 2020

Yet 4 years has gone by and Moms still cant afford diapers. Pedo Joe and DEI Kamala did nothing for the people 

[Sean Mooney 1,815]

4 minutes ago, RLLD said:

I know.....I know.......they are harming people less and less.......but still harming....

Moreover, drops with inflation do not mean relief......prices stay high, the impacts of inflation do not simply abate in lock step with its lowering......thats not how this all works....the markets have to wring it out of the system, and that takes time.....and given the gravity of what was done over these last four years it will take considerable time to wring it out.....

THAT is why its such a beast.....it does not simply "go away"....

Harm is harm I get that. Always have and never said otherwise.

I'm simply pointing out that the trend is going the right direction. It was 3.7% last September, it is 2.4% now. This is the first time we've had 3 consecutive months under 3% since Jan/Feb/March of 2021. So the trend is moving in the right direction which should give some hope that we are already in the beginning stages of inflation shaking loose out of the system. So since we are trending the right direction it becomes incumbent on what happens next. Do the incoming president's ideas and policies help or hurt the trend? What does the fed do with those policies to keep the trend going?

 

[RLLD 3,928]

4 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

Harm is harm I get that. Always have and never said otherwise.

I'm simply pointing out that the trend is going the right direction. It was 3.7% last September, it is 2.4% now. This is the first time we've had 3 consecutive months under 3% since Jan/Feb/March of 2021. So the trend is moving in the right direction which should give some hope that we are already in the beginning stages of inflation shaking loose out of the system. So since we are trending the right direction it becomes incumbent on what happens next. Do the incoming president's ideas and policies help or hurt the trend? What does the fed do with those policies to keep the trend going?

 

Dont get me wrong, I am happy that its going in the right direction.   

Now, going back to my original point and statement.  Unwinding this is not going to be easy, its going to be hard.   The Fed is going to be challenged to manage this, and historically I am NOT a fan of the Fed, but I give them credit.....over the last couple of years their work to fight inflation has been pretty good.....notably given what the Biden administration did to foment inflation at these astronomic levels. 

I am sure folks at the Fed are bracing for what is coming.   Trump will heat up the economy and the folks at the Fed are going to have to walk a very thin line. 

[Cdub100 3,689]

On 11/1/2024 at 12:15 PM, Cdub100 said:

Which way is fed market leaning. I'm betting .25 cut.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rates-by-25-basis-points-190222469.html

The economy is NOT doing well. The fed wants to cut more but it can't or inflation will shoot up again. I really don't know how they get out of the current situation. 

[RLLD 3,928]

Just now, Cdub100 said:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rates-by-25-basis-points-190222469.html

I am a little surprised by this move.  To me it suggests they feel they have not handled this well recently, and this swing of the bat is more than I would have anticipated....

[Cdub100 3,689]

Just now, RLLD said:

I am a little surprised by this move.  To me it suggests they feel they have not handled this well recently, and this swing of the bat is more than I would have anticipated....

They are stuck between a rock and a hard place. The economy is hurting, and real job growth is negative. But they can't cut too fast, or inflation will get out of hand. So they are moving slow which means the economy will get worse.

[RLLD 3,928]

 

 

[TimHauck 2,449]

Interesting data point.  Obviously not saying this will happen and hopefully it doesn’t (I’m not @edjr who is rooting for a recession)

 

 

[Sean Mooney 1,815]

Quote

 

Trump played a big role in assuring the economy would remain a vulnerability, hammering the administration for creating an “economic catastrophe” after he had handed them a “perfect economy.” But some of the president-elect’s favorite gauges for assessing economic performance have been humming. The stock market repeatedly hit record highs in recent months, even before his reelection sent traders into a frenzy. The economy grew at a healthy 2.7 percent pace during the third quarter. And even though the labor market has been choppy lately, the jobless rate has fallen well below where it was when he left office.

Incoming presidents who defeat an incumbent party are rarely dealt so strong a hand. For Trump, who has long treated high-level economic data as a scorecard, the challenge will be to convince the public that the economy’s current trajectory is a result of his return to power. Some of his top allies on Wall Street — including financiers in line for roles in his administration — have been cranking out op-eds and cable news hits to trumpet how markets surged after he was reelected. (Trump, for his part, made a point of attributing a market surge earlier this year to his ascendance in the polls.)

 

 

[RLLD 3,928]

“The thing that surprised me least about the election was the sharp red shift in these big cities,” Klein said on “Pod Save America” Wednesday. “If you just talk to anybody who lives in them, they are furious.”

 

[TimHauck 2,449]

18 minutes ago, RLLD said:

“The thing that surprised me least about the election was the sharp red shift in these big cities,” Klein said on “Pod Save America” Wednesday. “If you just talk to anybody who lives in them, they are furious.”

 

“Yay for bad metrics on the economy!”

-Republicans 

[jbycho 208]

5 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

“Yay for bad metrics on the economy!”

-Republicans 

Good thing Trump was announced. 

[RLLD 3,928]

7 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

“Yay for bad metrics on the economy!”

-Republicans 

" Hide the truth from people so that we can win elections"

Democrats

(BTW, thank you all for believing the lies and not challenging your preferred politicians, it was incredibly helpful in Trump winning)

[TimHauck 2,449]

20 minutes ago, RLLD said:

" Hide the truth from people so that we can win elections"

Democrats

(BTW, thank you all for believing the lies and not challenging your preferred politicians, it was incredibly helpful in Trump winning)

I voted for Trump.  I agree the economy was better under him.  But not sure I’d go as far as saying it is currently “bad,” and it is lightyears away from being “the worst in the lower classes’ lifetime”

[RLLD 3,928]

4 hours ago, TimHauck said:

I voted for Trump.  I agree the economy was better under him.  But not sure I’d go as far as saying it is currently “bad,” and it is lightyears away from being “the worst in the lower classes’ lifetime”

Your experuences in this economy are better than the majority of people, you should feel lucky for that. For many it is the worse economy of their lifetime, and they voted in that way too.....thankfully

[TimHauck 2,449]

3 minutes ago, RLLD said:

Your experuences in this economy are better than the majority of people, you should feel lucky for that. For many it is the worse economy of their lifetime, and they voted in that way too.....thankfully

They voted in the way that it was better during Trump than Biden.

[Maximum Overkill 1,394]

13 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

They voted in the way that it was better during Trump than Biden.

You didn't reap the benefits of a Trump Presidency? I sure as hell did. I was printing money till Biden destroyed the economy. 

[TimHauck 2,449]

27 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

You didn't reap the benefits of a Trump Presidency? I sure as hell did. I was printing money till Biden destroyed the economy. 

I suggest you reread my recent post(s) in this thread 

[purdygood 306]

35 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

You didn't reap the benefits of a Trump Presidency? I sure as hell did. I was printing money till Biden destroyed the economy. 

I must of missed the news article where Biden put on a Pirate outfit and Raped/Pillaged your home.   Also, printing your own money.  Illegal.  You're a felon. Just like Trump. 

[Reality 3,043]

6 minutes ago, purdygood said:

I must of missed the news article where Biden put on a Pirate outfit and Raped/Pillaged your home.   Also, printing your own money.  Illegal.  You're a felon. Just like Trump. 

[RLLD 3,928]

 

There is a slow trickly of liberals who today... are willing to admit the truth.

[RLLD 3,928]

 

Bill Clinton....telling the truth....admitting the reality of the economy, wow.....

[RLLD 3,928]

 

Bernie Sanders stating what I have been saying for over a year now.

 

Looking for some comments from the cadre of folks who in this thread argued against my assertions, which are not being echoed by Democrats. 

@thegeneral  @TimHauck @Sean Mooney

[Sean Mooney 1,815]

I reiterate what I said the whole time in this thread. The economy in a long view is doing fine. Inside that doing fine however, everyday prices are higher than they were 4 years ago so people voted for that. I also reiterate what I posted from various polls indicating people felt they were doing well right now in the economy but the economy was poor. So there is a disconnect between reality and perception. And the Democrats ran into once again (and still have not learned how to defeat) a guy who is a better salesman than they are.

So that's how Trump (a billionaire) and Elon Musk (as Clinton pointed out, one of the richest men in the world) are seen as rescuing the middle class despite what the reality may be. 

The Democrats need to improve their economic messaging though. Not sure taking cues from Bernie Sanders is the best way to go though. 

[thegeneral 2,496]

The economy continues to be strong, best in the world all things considered. 

[RLLD 3,928]

3 hours ago, Sean Mooney said:

I reiterate what I said the whole time in this thread. The economy in a long view is doing fine. Inside that doing fine however, everyday prices are higher than they were 4 years ago so people voted for that. I also reiterate what I posted from various polls indicating people felt they were doing well right now in the economy but the economy was poor. So there is a disconnect between reality and perception. And the Democrats ran into once again (and still have not learned how to defeat) a guy who is a better salesman than they are.

So that's how Trump (a billionaire) and Elon Musk (as Clinton pointed out, one of the richest men in the world) are seen as rescuing the middle class despite what the reality may be. 

The Democrats need to improve their economic messaging though. Not sure taking cues from Bernie Sanders is the best way to go though. 

So you have learned nothing.   The disconnect was between Democrats and the lived experiences of people. The reality of policy decisions that significantly harmed people.

This is not about messaging at all.  This is the lesson some appear to have learned, and it is what I was hoping you would learn but alas......

[Sean Mooney 1,815]

1 minute ago, RLLD said:

So you have learned nothing.   The disconnect was between Democrats and the lived experiences of people. The reality of policy decisions that significantly harmed people.

This is not about messaging at all.  This is the lesson some appear to have learned, and it is what I was hoping you would learn but alas......

I'm not going to stomp you again in this thread because we've seen you are not capable of having an unbiased discussion on these issues. Besides we are coming up on the holidays and it wouldn't be nice. 

You continue to just spin stuff into what you want it to be. Doesn't make it so. But enjoy your holiday season. 

[RLLD 3,928]

21 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

The economy continues to be strong, best in the world all things considered. 

So then you too have learned nothing.   Oh well, I had hoped for better, particularly given the clout of the people now admitting the truth.

I think the nation needs and benefits from a healthy and normal Democrat party.  Until Democrats are able to admit what has transpired I submit that we will not see that party return to health.  Some of the Democrat leaders are trying to get people back to reality, but will they listen?