The state of the Presidential race: Kamala slightly ahead in North Carolina

[MDC 6,420]

20 minutes ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

See I know you’re not dumb. What makes it a dei hire is when the president comes right out and says I’m picking a black woman. 
 

if he said I’m picking the most qualified person and that ended up being a black woman that wouldn’t be dei 

If he picked an unqualified black woman solely because she was black, that would be a DEI hire. Presidential candidates pick a VP for political reasons vs their resume all the time. Pence was VP to get the Christian vote, Vance is running mate to get the weirdo vote etc. Spoiler alert: Kamala’s pick will probably be a white guy from a swing state.

[Bill E. 689]

9 hours ago, Mike Honcho said:

I love it when people ask/nominate @Bill E.to do a contest where he puts up a prize that he probably can get a hundred bucks or more. 

If you want a contest, why not make your own and supply a prize. 

I do not mind.  I love the diving more than the business end.  I probably have more than I will ever sell now anyhow.  If I were worried about the money I would quit diving and focus more on selling what I have on hand.   I will try to set something up this week when I am visiting my Mother. 

[Bill E. 689]

9 hours ago, Fireballer said:

Not necessarily a prize needed. As we’ve seen in the Timmy betting fiasco, bragging rights is good enough most of the time. He just sets good parameters for these and is fair.  @Bill E.

It is a good idea.  I will try to set something up this week.  I tend to get busy and drift away from here and the contests keep me remembering to check in. 

[Fireballer 2,542]

10 minutes ago, Bill E. said:

I do not mind.  I love the diving more than the business end.  I probably have more than I will ever sell now anyhow.  If I were worried about the money I would quit diving and focus more on selling what I have on hand.   I will try to set something up this week when I am visiting my Mother. 

You will have to refresh my memory…you set up to dive solo/rec or you go commercial?  I haven’t been diving in a few years since I got transferred away from our water rescue company.  It had gotten to where every dive was dry suit/Aga mask/HazMat/surface supplied . Sitting as a back up diver in 90 degree weather was a PIA.  

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,868]

21 minutes ago, MDC said:

If he picked an unqualified black woman solely because she was black, that would be a DEI hire. Presidential candidates pick a VP for political reasons vs their resume all the time. Pence was VP to get the Christian vote, Vance is running mate to get the weirdo vote etc. Spoiler alert: Kamala’s pick will probably be a white guy from a swing state.

I understand that, but he also did it for SCOTUS, and she is wildly unqualified, shes an activist

 

[seafoam1 2,355]

On 5/6/2024 at 3:45 PM, The Real timschochet said:

I’m starting this thread to discuss the Presidential race, trying to determine who has got the advantage. Not interested in arguing about who I or anyone else WANTS to win, there’s plenty of threads for that, Only an up to date breakdown of who is likely to win. 

So here are my thoughts as of May 6, 2024, based on what I’m reading: 

1. It’s pretty much a dead heat between Biden and Trump. 

2. Trump has a slight lead among all voters. Biden has a slight lead among likely voters. However both leads are within the margin of error, 

3. Trump has a slight lead in most of the battleground states. But this lead was significantly larger 4-5 months earlier; Biden has closed the gap. 
 

4. RFK JR and the other third party candidates  currently have about 8% of the vote. Conventional wisdom suggests that these are votes that Biden would otherwise receive but that is not clear. History suggests that this number will go down as the election gets closer and that come November, it will be nowhere near 8%. 

5. Some polling suggests that if Trump is convicted in the hush money trial that will lose him a significant amount of support. I am extremely skeptical of this.

6. On the main issues that voters claim to be most concerned with, such as the economy, crime, inflation, the border, international affairs, Trump has a commanding 10-12 point advantage in all of these issues. Biden leads in character (though not by much) and on abortion (by a lot.). 
 

There’s a lot more but any thoughts on this so far? 

[LaChup 195]

I think what most, if not all, libtards miss is that the last 3.5 years have been an absolute disaster for our country and the cackling hyena is half responsible for it. She will lose biggly.

[LaChup 195]

1 hour ago, MDC said:

Every left leaning minority is a DEI hire to this crowd. But that Vance dude is highly qualified based on his 18 months as a junior senator. Also he went to Iraq for six months 20 years ago. 

He's actually smart and educated. That's one big difference.

[thegeneral 2,105]

Kamala is going to pick Kelly from AZ. Navy Pilot, Space Shuttle pilot, wife was shot by some nut, he’s relatively moderate.

The far right folks around here will struggle to hate on him

[IGotWorms 3,788]

2 hours ago, LaChup said:

I think what most, if not all, libtards miss is that the last 3.5 years have been an absolute disaster for our country

[Sean Mooney 1,482]

9 hours ago, LaChup said:

He's actually smart and educated. That's one big difference.

Harris is smart and educated too. 

[Alias Detective 1,258]

It’s cute seeing the liberals fall in love with Kamala.  What are her approval ratings again?

 

bwhahahahahahahahahah

[Tree of Knowledge 1,208]

Only a clown would see that vacuous cackling speech as inspirational. She is a dummy.  Kamala would be the female version of President Camacho from Idiocracy come to life.  

[Dizkneelande 972]

22 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

Harris is smart and educated too. 

She failed the bar exam 

[RLLD 3,774]

10 minutes ago, Tree of Knowledge said:

Only a clown would see that vacuous cackling speech as inspirational. She is a dummy.  Kamala would be the female version of President Camacho from Idiocracy come to life.  

I find it challenging to listen to her speak.  She comes across as just so Inauthentic. I think she has a notion in her head as to how she wants to be perceived, and instead of just being herself she tried to sell us on this vision she wants us to have.  

[Sean Mooney 1,482]

15 minutes ago, Dizkneelande said:

She failed the bar exam 

OH NO! She failed it once and then passed it so she's the dumbest person alive.

You know who else fails the CA bar exam? like 50% of the people on their first try. 

[Maximum Overkill 1,131]

1 minute ago, Sean Mooney said:

NO! She failed it once and then passed it so she's the dumbest person alive.

Do you know what she didn't fail? Sex Education  

[Dizkneelande 972]

3 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

OH NO! She failed it once and then passed it so she's the dumbest person alive.

You know who else fails the CA bar exam? like 50% of the people on their first try. 

You just pulling numbers out your azz? 
 

“According to the American Bar Association, over 88% of people who take the bar within two years of graduating from law school pass the exam.”

[Sean Mooney 1,482]

5 minutes ago, Dizkneelande said:

You just pulling numbers out your azz? 
 

“According to the American Bar Association, over 88% of people who take the bar within two years of graduating from law school pass the exam.”

The tests are different state by state and the California one is pretty widely regarded as the toughest one. 

From Juris Education:

Hardest Bar Exams By State

Here’s our list of the hardest bar exams by state. We’ve included information on each state exam, including the pass rate, length, and contents of the exam. Keep in mind that while you can consider the pass rate as an indicator of the difficulty of the exam, it is only one factor and can not accurately describe how difficult the exam is on its own. 

Quote

 

1. California 

Length: Two days 

Pass rate: 52%

Law students across the US may be familiar with the famed “impossible” California bar exam. But why is the California bar exam so hard? For starters, the cut score (the score needed to pass the test) of the California bar is 1390 out of 2000, which is 40 points above the national average. 

The California bar exam is given twice a year over two days and is made up of the following components:

Five essay questions (60 minutes each)

One Performance Test (90 minutes)

The Multistate Bar Examination (MBE), around 200 multiple-choice questions 

The pass rate of California’s bar exam has slightly increased since the state announced it would be lowering the cut score from 1440 to 1390 and spreading the exam over two days rather than three, but it is still widely considered the most challenging in the country.

 

HTH- and no..those numbers aren't out of my azz

[Tree of Knowledge 1,208]

10 minutes ago, Dizkneelande said:

You just pulling numbers out your azz? 
 

“According to the American Bar Association, over 88% of people who take the bar within two years of graduating from law school pass the exam.”

Kim Kardashian passed the California Bar.

[Strike 4,420]

17 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

OH NO! She failed it once and then passed it so she's the dumbest person alive.

You know who else fails the CA bar exam? like 50% of the people on their first try. 

Which is fine if you want to be an ambulance chaser, or Worms.  I expect the elite to pass their first time, as my cousin did.  In CA.

[Hardcore troubadour 13,609]

58 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

Harris is smart and educated too. 

[Sean Mooney 1,482]

3 minutes ago, Tree of Knowledge said:

Kim Kardashian passed the California Bar.

She passed the baby bar (on her 4th try) which isn't the same thing.

Again- according to Juris Education:

Quote

 

The purpose of the baby bar exam is to confirm that law is the right path for students who have chosen to pursue it through an unaccredited law school. It also helps assess if these students are fit to sit at the bar and potentially practice law.

This exam is often also used to test these unaccredited schools’ legal education to see if it provides students with the correct knowledge to adequately practice law.

 

You all are grasping at straws here. 

[Dizkneelande 972]

5 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

The tests are different state by state and the California one is pretty widely regarded as the toughest one. 

From Juris Education:

Hardest Bar Exams By State

Here’s our list of the hardest bar exams by state. We’ve included information on each state exam, including the pass rate, length, and contents of the exam. Keep in mind that while you can consider the pass rate as an indicator of the difficulty of the exam, it is only one factor and can not accurately describe how difficult the exam is on its own. 

HTH- and no..those numbers aren't out of my azz

That just means they have more stupid people taking it i.e. Harris. 
 

University of california, hastings college of law bar exam pass rate 1989

University of California, Hastings College of Law Bar Exam Pass Rate in 1989

According to available data, the first-time bar exam pass rate for University of California, Hastings College of the Law in 1989 was 85.02%. This pass rate is significantly higher than the average pass rate for California as a whole, which was 77.95% that year.

[Sean Mooney 1,482]

4 minutes ago, Strike said:

Which is fine if you want to be an ambulance chaser, or Worms.  I expect the elite to pass their first time, as my cousin did.  In CA.

Cool- so he is in the half who pass the first time. Good for him.

1 minute ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

I get you don't like her (probably because she is a woman and black) but to say she is uneducated is completely idiotic. I don't particularly like Donald Trump but I would never make the case he is uneducated. That is about the stupidest thing you could say about either of them in face of the mountain of information you have about their educational backgrounds. 

[Hardcore troubadour 13,609]

1 minute ago, Dizkneelande said:

That just means they have more stupid people taking it i.e. Harris. 
 

University of california, hastings college of law bar exam pass rate 1989

University of California, Hastings College of Law Bar Exam Pass Rate in 1989

According to available data, the first-time bar exam pass rate for University of California, Hastings College of the Law in 1989 was 85.02%. This pass rate is significantly higher than the average pass rate for California as a whole, which was 77.95% that year.

[The Real timschochet 4,591]

54 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

It’s cute seeing the liberals fall in love with Kamala.  What are her approval ratings again?

 

bwhahahahahahahahahah

Her approval ratings, within a week or so, will be well over 50%. Calling it now. Whole new ballgame, you guys just don’t see it yet. 

[Hardcore troubadour 13,609]

Just now, Sean Mooney said:

Cool- so he is in the half who pass the first time. Good for him.

I get you don't like her (probably because she is a woman and black) but to say she is uneducated is completely idiotic. I don't particularly like Donald Trump but I would never make the case he is uneducated. That is about the stupidest thing you could say about either of them in face of the mountain of information you have about their educational backgrounds. 

She’s obviously educated. I call you a clown for saying she’s smart.  

[Sean Mooney 1,482]

8 minutes ago, Dizkneelande said:

That just means they have more stupid people taking it i.e. Harris. 
 

University of california, hastings college of law bar exam pass rate 1989

University of California, Hastings College of Law Bar Exam Pass Rate in 1989

According to available data, the first-time bar exam pass rate for University of California, Hastings College of the Law in 1989 was 85.02%. This pass rate is significantly higher than the average pass rate for California as a whole, which was 77.95% that year.

Pass rate in 1989 for California was 59.5% according to abovethelaw.com. So you will have to show where you are getting numbers from. 

EDIT- let me amend a little. The LA Times says in 1989: 

Quote

Of the 7,186 people who took the California State Bar exam last July, 52.5% passed and won the right to practice law. But the pass rate was 66.2%--the highest since 1979--among the 4,792 people taking the exam for the first time.

 

So 1/3 of the people taking it for the first time failed. The Hastings numbers are like 73%..so a quarter of them failed. 

[Sean Mooney 1,482]

1 minute ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

She’s obviously educated. I call you a clown for saying she’s smart.  

I guess when you have nothing to add you just attack. Clearly you aren't smart. 

[The Real timschochet 4,591]

This thread has become so much fun to read. You guys go with she’s stupid, inauthentic, a DEI hire. See how far this gets you. Loving this. 
 

It’s amazing how an election can change within just a few days. I would say that at this point she has to be the favorite to win. 

[Hardcore troubadour 13,609]

2 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

I guess when you have nothing to add you just attack. Clearly you aren't smart. 

Clearly you’re a centrist and your observations should be given thoughtful consideration. 

[Hardcore troubadour 13,609]

Harris isn’t even doing the job of VP. She is negligent in the duties and responsibilities of the office. 

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,868]

5 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

This thread has become so much fun to read. You guys go with she’s stupid, inauthentic, a DEI hire. See how far this gets you. Loving this. 
 

It’s amazing how an election can change within just a few days. I would say that at this point she has to be the favorite to win. 

Of course you would say that. You think the woman who couldn’t win a single delegate and is the lowest approval of any vp ever is now a huge favorite  

[Sean Mooney 1,482]

5 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

This thread has become so much fun to read. You guys go with she’s stupid, inauthentic, a DEI hire. See how far this gets you. Loving this. 
 

It’s amazing how an election can change within just a few days. I would say that at this point she has to be the favorite to win. 

It's a little silly to me to keep railing at the "DEI hire" at Kamala. Biden stupidly said what he did and that undercut the qualifications and everything Kamala had achieved in her years of public service. But she was still the most qualified probably of the finalists at the time. Furthermore, all VP picks are strategic in some way meaning they are picked not necessarily based on qualifications but on what they give to the candidate. JD Vance has been a senator for 18 months- nobody is railing about his qualifications for that job. But he kisses the ring nicely and has a chance to extend the MAGA reign for another 8 years beyond Trump based on his age. Mike Pence smoothed the edges around Trump in 2016 and appealed to people worried about Trump's abilities. Biden was there as a steady veteran presence to the relatively young and politically inexperienced Obama. Cheney was there to be the forceful hand guiding W in 2000.

 

There is a stronger case about Ketani Jackson being a DEI hire than Kamala. 

[BrahmaBulls 472]

16 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

Cool- so he is in the half who pass the first time. Good for him.

I get you don't like her (probably because she is a woman and black) but to say she is uneducated is completely idiotic. I don't particularly like Donald Trump but I would never make the case he is uneducated. That is about the stupidest thing you could say about either of them in face of the mountain of information you have about their educational backgrounds. 

She's not black.  She called herself an Indian just a few years ago.

[The Real timschochet 4,591]

2 minutes ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

Of course you would say that. You think the woman who couldn’t win a single delegate and is the lowest approval of any vp ever is now a huge favorite  

In about a week or two polls will come out that reflect the changes since Sunday. Then we’ll know if I am right or wrong about this. Right now I am predicting that her popularity will shoot way up and that she will sprint ahead of Trump in the polls. If I am wrong I will certainly own up to it. If I am right, I trust you will do the same. 

[Sean Mooney 1,482]

8 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Clearly you’re a centrist and your observations should be given thoughtful consideration. 

I've said a number of times there are plenty of things to attack Kamala Harris over but you- and people like you- keep picking the stupid things. Like when you said dumb like "She ain't black" or when people say "She isn't smart or educated." Those aren't criticisms of her ability- they are attacks of her as a black woman

[BrahmaBulls 472]

12 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

This thread has become so much fun to read. You guys go with she’s stupid, inauthentic, a DEI hire. See how far this gets you. Loving this. 
 

It’s amazing how an election can change within just a few days. I would say that at this point she has to be the favorite to win. 

Keep saying it.  You're always wrong.

[Sean Mooney 1,482]

1 minute ago, BrahmaBulls said:

She's not black.  She called herself an Indian just a few years ago.

Her mother was Indian, her father was Jamaican.

This is common knowledge.