The state of the Presidential race: Has Kamala’s momentum slowed down?

[RLLD 3,770]

24 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

not really.  No one said inflation went negative  

any competent person knows that inflation has been cooling (even if it's not as much as dems want you to believe) based on the bandaid fed rate increases. 

You are also wrong that inflation "has fallen much after 2020".  apparently you forgot that inflation rose significantly from the end of 2020 to around mid 2022 (coinciding with those bandaid rate increases). 

did you really minor in finance? 

No, you were correct.  But people will read your posting with intent to see you saying something you are not.

What is rarely raised is the compounding factor, and how the slowing of inflation (while great) does not help all that much.

[Hardcore troubadour 13,571]

Libtards get worked up about the my pillow guy but are ok with George Clooney calling the shots. 

[IGotWorms 3,759]

27 minutes ago, RLLD said:

No, you were correct.  But people will read your posting with intent to see you saying something you are not.

What is rarely raised is the compounding factor, and how the slowing of inflation (while great) does not help all that much.

“The compounding factor”?

Yeah candy isn’t a nickel anymore. I think we all get that

[WhiteWonder 2,390]

33 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

You’re trying to pretend like you knew “inflation falling” means a decrease in the rate of inflation versus actual deflation.

Truth is, you didn’t know that.

But that’s okay, lots of people don’t.

sorry. I don't really want to belabor this but I am not following your line of thinking.  Where did I "pretend" this?  Aside from my very first post, which I said was tongue in cheek (again, i'm not here to play sides but it is a little telling that all the immediate reactions to my post came from one side of the aisle), I was discussing CPI, not inflation. 

did you mean to say  I was pretending to know that "CPI falling" means a decrease in the rate of inflation versus actual deflation?   You would still be incorrect in your commentary but it would at least make some sort of sense as to where you think I was lying or backpedaling. 

However, I never spoke to the idea of CPI falling. I was stating a fact about it going negative for the first time in quite some time. You and I then went on to discuss the merits of this and it's potential impacts. I'm ignoring gutter because he is a petulant child and you are at least capable, usually, of just discussing.  I am still waiting to be told which part was the lie though. All you have to do is highlight it in one of my posts that you have quoted. 

[RLLD 3,770]

3 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

“The compounding factor”?

Yeah candy isn’t a nickel anymore. I think we all get that

Correct. I get that you wont understand it immediately, but if you read up about it, the impacts of compound inflation are nasty; and really bad for the lower classes.

Inflation this year leads to higher prices, those higher prices are the starting point for next year's inflation

Inflation has something called a compound interest curve, resulting in prices increase by a percentage every unit of time. So if inflation is running at 10% per year, and this remains stable, something worth $100 last year will cost $110 this year and $121 next year, NOT $120.

Its not simply more expensive, its much worse than that.

[Mark Davis 249]

1 hour ago, WhiteWonder said:

CPI going negative does not automatically result in deflation and deflation is not automatically bad or result in a very bad recession.  I would argue right now it can be seen as a good thing. It likely cements rate cuts in September and could even put them on the table sooner. 

Short term I agree it would be a good thing.  I think originally as Covid wound down some economists expected short term negative inflation data along with the "transitory" claim about inflation.  As we found out, it wasn't transitory.  Short term getting a negative rate could be good.  Longer term we need to be focused on being at that 2-3% rate.  I hope these signals are showing that maybe we are getting closer to that.  Unfortunately even with elevated interest rates we haven't reduced inflation to that run rate just yet.

[IGotWorms 3,759]

1 minute ago, RLLD said:

Correct. I get that you wont understand it immediately, but if you read up about it, the impacts of compound inflation are nasty; and really bad for the lower classes.

Inflation this year leads to higher prices, those higher prices are the starting point for next year's inflation

Inflation has something called a compound interest curve, resulting in prices increase by a percentage every unit of time. So if inflation is running at 10% per year, and this remains stable, something worth $100 last year will cost $110 this year and $121 next year, NOT $120.

Its not simply more expensive, its much worse than that.

I mean, you’re just stating how things work

Do you think there should never be inflation?

Basically every economist would say that’s a bad thing. Growth means inflation and we need growth.

[IGotWorms 3,759]

7 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

sorry. I don't really want to belabor this but I am not following your line of thinking.  Where did I "pretend" this?  Aside from my very first post, which I said was tongue in cheek (again, i'm not here to play sides but it is a little telling that all the immediate reactions to my post came from one side of the aisle), I was discussing CPI, not inflation. 

did you mean to say  I was pretending to know that "CPI falling" means a decrease in the rate of inflation versus actual deflation?   You would still be incorrect in your commentary but it would at least make some sort of sense as to where you think I was lying or backpedaling. 

However, I never spoke to the idea of CPI falling. I was stating a fact about it going negative for the first time in quite some time. You and I then went on to discuss the merits of this and it's potential impacts. I'm ignoring gutter because he is a petulant child and you are at least capable, usually, of just discussing.  I am still waiting to be told which part was the lie though. All you have to do is highlight it in one of my posts that you have quoted. 

Okay I guess tongue in cheek makes sense. Otherwise I just did not understand how your comment was relevant or made much sense.

Sorry, I shouldn’t have called you a liar.

[RLLD 3,770]

Just now, IGotWorms said:

I mean, you’re just stating how things work

Do you think there should never be inflation?

Basically every economist would say that’s a bad thing. Growth means inflation and we need growth.

I think inflation comes and goes, and its part of the economy for every administration.  Where that administration does obviously stupid things from a policy perspective that exacerbates inflation they deserve to be assailed for it.

What is worse, is the lying about it....denying it....pretending it was transitory and in the process....allowing it to continue without proper action.....and then later throwing MORE money into the system, and then later trying to do it again....  its reprehensible.

[seafoam1 2,291]

I just hope biden digs in and stays put. Because this is fun. 

[IGotWorms 3,759]

9 minutes ago, Mark Davis said:

Short term I agree it would be a good thing.  I think originally as Covid wound down some economists expected short term negative inflation data along with the "transitory" claim about inflation.  As we found out, it wasn't transitory.  Short term getting a negative rate could be good.  Longer term we need to be focused on being at that 2-3% rate.  I hope these signals are showing that maybe we are getting closer to that.  Unfortunately even with elevated interest rates we haven't reduced inflation to that run rate just yet.

Not to nitpick (because I think it does matter for the future), but it actually was transitory. People just didn’t understand what economists meant when they said that.

People thought they meant prices would spike for a little bit and then return to where they were.

What economists meant is that the rate of inflation would spike for a bit and then return to a normal rate, which is exactly what happened. Not that we’d go backwards.

Although that last 1/2 a percent has been hard to shake.

[IGotWorms 3,759]

2 minutes ago, RLLD said:

I think inflation comes and goes, and its part of the economy for every administration.  Where that administration does obviously stupid things from a policy perspective that exacerbates inflation they deserve to be assailed for it.

What is worse, is the lying about it....denying it....pretending it was transitory and in the process....allowing it to continue without proper action.....and then later throwing MORE money into the system, and then later trying to do it again....  its reprehensible.

Nobody’s lying about it. You just don’t understand what they’re saying  

9% inflation was bad, that’s definitely true. But there was no Great Depression like everyone was justifiably afraid of. Pandemics can really wreck the economy, on a global scale.

So you have to balance that harm with the high inflation for a bit. I think it was definitely worth it and I credit both Trump and Biden for seeing that.

Now Biden might’ve gone a little far there at the end. I think that’s fair to ask. But we’re just talking about a matter of degrees at this point 

[RLLD 3,770]

3 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Nobody’s lying about it. You just don’t understand what they’re saying  

9% inflation was bad, that’s definitely true. But there was no Great Depression like everyone was justifiably afraid of. Pandemics can really wreck the economy, on a global scale.

So you have to balance that harm with the high inflation for a bit. I think it was definitely worth it and I credit both Trump and Biden for seeing that.

Now Biden might’ve gone a little far there at the end. I think that’s fair to ask. But we’re just talking about a matter of degrees at this point 

Biden lied about inflation.  First he denied it was happening.  Then he called it transitory. 

Perhaps you believed his lies, but to anyone with a modest understanding of economics, it was clear even then that he was not telling the truth.

His actions, when calling it transitory, to flood the economy with more money, was wrong.....its was reckless. Machin saved him from making it even worse, when he stopped the next round of money Biden sought to flood into the economy.

It was a mistake, an easy one to avoid. His economic policies are not suitable. 

[IGotWorms 3,759]

21 minutes ago, RLLD said:

Biden lied about inflation.  First he denied it was happening.  Then he called it transitory. 

Perhaps you believed his lies, but to anyone with a modest understanding of economics, it was clear even then that he was not telling the truth.

His actions, when calling it transitory, to flood the economy with more money, was wrong.....its was reckless. Machin saved him from making it even worse, when he stopped the next round of money Biden sought to flood into the economy.

It was a mistake, an easy one to avoid. His economic policies are not suitable. 

No, he did not lie, you simply failed to understand what he meant.

I mean, your assertion is ludicrous. Why would Biden or anyone lie about that? It will be easily and quickly shown as a lie, and people would hate you for it.

You don’t understand basic things  

[RLLD 3,770]

2 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

No, he did not lie, you simply failed to understand what he meant.

I mean, your assertion is ludicrous. Why would Biden or anyone lie about that? It will be easily and quickly shown as a lie, and people would hate you for it.

You don’t understand basic things  

No, he lied, you should not defend him on this.  His lies are not being misinterpreted.  https://thehill.com/business/4529787-yellen-regrets-saying-inflation-transitory/And later they "regretted" the lie, which we all knew was a lie when they said it

They lied because they are politicians.  That is what politicians do.  If they speak, you start from the premise that its a lie. Why do they lie about anything.....they want people to like them, support them, vote for them....poll for them.

These are basic elements everyone should understand. If we cannot grasp these basic elements, we end up with a retard to opens up the border, stokes inflation, and inspires foreign wars. A weak and inept leader.

 

[IGotWorms 3,759]

They regretted it because they should’ve known morons like you wouldn’t understand it. And that’s true, it was a dumb thing to say, but no, it was not a “lie”

[Mark Davis 249]

1 hour ago, IGotWorms said:

Not to nitpick (because I think it does matter for the future), but it actually was transitory. People just didn’t understand what economists meant when they said that.

People thought they meant prices would spike for a little bit and then return to where they were.

What economists meant is that the rate of inflation would spike for a bit and then return to a normal rate, which is exactly what happened. Not that we’d go backwards.

Although that last 1/2 a percent has been hard to shake.

Transitory means a short term, I'd have loosely defined it as a year or less.  Here is Janet Yellen saying she regretted that term, even stating it generally meant even a shorter term, and that she was in fact incorrect:

https://thehill.com/business/4529787-yellen-regrets-saying-inflation-transitory/

You have to remember the time of it all.  Largely they used that term because it was the supply chain disruption they viewed as driving most all of it.  Over time they expected that to work out and largely subside, perhaps reduce to close to the original factor.  It luckily has slowed, but took much longer than anticipated and has remained sticky well above that 3% target rate.  I hope we can get to that 3% rate again, but we aren't there.  The Fed would have loved to already have cut rates, but inflation unfortunately has been persistent above that.

[IGotWorms 3,759]

15 minutes ago, Mark Davis said:

Transitory means a short term, I'd have loosely defined it as a year or less.  Here is Janet Yellen saying she regretted that term, even stating it generally meant even a shorter term, and that she was in fact incorrect:

https://thehill.com/business/4529787-yellen-regrets-saying-inflation-transitory/

You have to remember the time of it all.  Largely they used that term because it was the supply chain disruption they viewed as driving most all of it.  Over time they expected that to work out and largely subside, perhaps reduce to close to the original factor.  It luckily has slowed, but took much longer than anticipated and has remained sticky well above that 3% target rate.  I hope we can get to that 3% rate again, but we aren't there.  The Fed would have loved to already have cut rates, but inflation unfortunately has been persistent above that.

It was short term though, certainly in relation to the 70s/80s and other historic periods of high inflation. Perhaps they were too optimistic but I’d say that, fundamentally, they were right 

[GutterBoy 2,896]

I'll take more of this.  Not bad for a DEI hire.

[The Real timschochet 4,509]

3 minutes ago, GutterBoy said:

I'll take more of this.  Not bad for a DEI hire.

She’s great. I think a lot of folks underestimate her. 

[seafoam1 2,291]

1 minute ago, The Real timschochet said:

She’s great. I think a lot of folks underestimate her. 

[IGotWorms 3,759]

21 minutes ago, GutterBoy said:

I'll take more of this.  Not bad for a DEI hire.

That was good. Way more forceful than really Biden has ever been against Trump

And she’s 100% right. You cannot have a traitor in charge of our national security - obviously that is insane

[Hardcore troubadour 13,571]

6 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

That was good. Way more forceful than really Biden has ever been against Trump

And she’s 100% right. You cannot have a traitor in charge of our national security - obviously that is insane

Yup. Miley needs to be hung. After a fair trial of course. 

[Jose M 125]

Pudding brain just introduced Zelenskyy as "President Putin".  

[Maximum Overkill 1,126]

6 minutes ago, Jose M said:

Pudding brain just introduced Zelenskyy as "President Putin".  

Wait, he's fine, no???? 

[Strike 4,389]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/07/11/milwaukee-radio-station-says-it-agreed-to-edit-interview-with-biden/74369012007/

[The Real timschochet 4,509]

2 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Yup. Miley needs to be hung. After a fair trial of course. 

Hang Hannah Montana? Never! 

[seafoam1 2,291]

3 hours ago, Jose M said:

Pudding brain just introduced Zelenskyy as "President Putin".  

He said Trump is the VP. 

Focking guy. 

[Jose M 125]

2 hours ago, Strike said:

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/07/11/milwaukee-radio-station-says-it-agreed-to-edit-interview-with-biden/74369012007/

Holy chit

 

Quote

 

The two edits, according to the station, were:

At time 5:20, the removal of “...and in addition to that, I have more Blacks in my administration than any other president, all other presidents combined, and in major positions, cabinet positions.”

At time 14:15, in reference to Donald Trump’s call for the death penalty for the Central Park Five, the removal of “I don’t know if they even call for their hanging or not, but he–but they said [...] convicted of murder.” 

 

[Maximum Overkill 1,126]

 

 

[Engorgeous George 1,583]

2 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

 

 

That he has that objectionable old man smell, halitosis combined with body odor poorly masked with talc and  that poorly wiped butt stench that oozes forth all steeped in the heady fragrance of Old Spice aftershave..

[edjr 6,048]

 

[Voltaire 4,780]

10 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

 

 

"I should have washed my hair with Deep Woods Off."

[Voltaire 4,780]

None of the most influencial Democrats in Michigan attended Brandon's Michigan campaign rally today. He got the Secretary of State, Lieutenant governor, and a handful of Congressmen.

HalfWhit, both US Senators, and the Attorney General were too busy. HalfWhit claimed that Brandon cannot win Michigan but retracted that later after it got reported.

Also, whoever thought up the "MOTOWN IS JOETOWN" banner deserves a punch in the nose.

[Maximum Overkill 1,126]

 

 

[seafoam1 2,291]

13 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

 

 

"No thank you." 

[Strike 4,389]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/12/us/politics/biden-donors-money.html

[The Real timschochet 4,509]

What’s scary here (for those of us opposed to Trump) is that the folks trying to replace Biden are doing just enough to permanently weaken his chances of victory but will not ultimately make him withdraw. This is what appears to be happening. Joe is being stubborn about this which is normally an admirable trait (even now I can really respect him for it) but he’s leading us to defeat, I fear. 

[SUXBNME 1,403]

5 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

What’s scary here (for those of us opposed to Trump) is that the folks trying to replace Biden are doing just enough to permanently weaken his chances of victory but will not ultimately make him withdraw. This is what appears to be happening. Joe is being stubborn about this which is normally an admirable trait (even now I can really respect him for it) but he’s leading us to defeat, I fear. 

I will never get why so many are opposed to Trump as passionately as they seem to be.  Makes no sense to me. 

[The Real timschochet 4,509]

9 minutes ago, SUXBNME said:

I will never get why so many are opposed to Trump as passionately as they seem to be.  Makes no sense to me. 

I love America.