Trump talk only- no Eagles talk allowed (Steelers talk is OK though)

[The Real timschochet 5,398]

Just now, Strike said:

In polls.  That's where.   FFS.

Which poll? Please be specific, Tia 

[Strike 4,869]

3 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Which poll? Please be specific, Tia 

Look for yourself.  YW.

[jonmx 2,251]

 

Nate Silvers projection model has been heavily swinging towards Trump in recent days.  Silver's project Trump has over a 60% chance of winning while giving Harris roughly a 38% chance.   Rasmussen polling is also heavily trending towards Trump.  Whereas they are within a point on the 5-day rolling average the last polling day has Trump +5.  Many of the polls which are strong for Harris have a long history of overstating Democratic candidate's strengths, with polls by CNN and Quinnipiac being the worst offenders both missing election by an average of over 6 points in recent elections.  It is fools gold to buy into the propaganda being pushed by establishment media.  Untill you realize the establishment media is just a mouthpiece for the big governement/corporation establishment power structure, you will remain very ignorant and easily manipulated.

[seafoam1 2,579]

1 minute ago, jonmx said:

 

Nate Silvers projection model has been heavily swinging towards Trump in recent days.  Silver's project Trump has over a 60% chance of winning while giving Harris roughly a 38% chance.   Rasmussen polling is also heavily trending towards Trump.  Whereas they are within a point on the 5-day rolling average the last polling day has Trump +5.  Many of the polls which are strong for Harris have a long history of overstating Democratic candidate's strengths, with polls by CNN and Quinnipiac being the worst offenders both missing election by an average of over 6 points in recent elections.  

Don't tell Timmy. You'll kill his fake buzz. 

The guy drinks N/A beer by the gallon and feels drunk by it. 

[Strike 4,869]

7 minutes ago, jonmx said:

 

Nate Silvers projection model has been heavily swinging towards Trump in recent days.  Silver's project Trump has over a 60% chance of winning while giving Harris roughly a 38% chance.   Rasmussen polling is also heavily trending towards Trump.  Whereas they are within a point on the 5-day rolling average the last polling day has Trump +5.  Many of the polls which are strong for Harris have a long history of overstating Democratic candidate's strengths, with polls by CNN and Quinnipiac being the worst offenders both missing election by an average of over 6 points in recent elections.  It is fools gold to buy into the propaganda being pushed by establishment media.  Untill you realize the establishment media is just a mouthpiece for the big governement/corporation establishment power structure, you will remain very ignorant and easily manipulated.

Emerson college too.  And this is how you know Tim is just a hack.  At the earliest signs of life for Kamalatoe's campaign be changed the title of this thread and left it that way for the last three weeks.  I told him last week that her momentum had waned and to change the title and he refused.  Now it's clear the momentum has swung the other way and the best he will do is say "Meh.". Just a big old hack.

[Horseman 2,036]

It's pretty clear Tim isn't going to think the momentum has changed unless he stops crying every time he hears her speak. 

[Horseman 2,036]

43 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

But basically since she’s been in the race, the bettors have them both at 50-50. So what’s changed? 

Forgetting your unwillingness to look at the real changes in the polls and betting odds to Trump's favor, making you reek like a hack, claiming nothing has changed means zero momentum. 

You're a hack that doesn't understand simple physics.  

[Tree of Knowledge 1,477]

The momentum was fake.  Paid people to attend rallies, oversampling of Democrats in polls, AI enhanced pictures at rallies, spent heavily on social media influencers, media buys and talking points.  It was all bogus. Only a moron is going to vote for Kamala.  No platform, unable to communicate or think  at a level above a 6th grader. The Democrat Party and Deep State are just hoping they can ride a coalition of TDS, dummies, and fake votes to victory in November. 

[HellToupee 1,289]

2 minutes ago, Tree of Knowledge said:

The momentum was fake.

Of course it was

[EternalShinyAndChrome 3,493]

8 minutes ago, Tree of Knowledge said:

The momentum was fake.  Paid people to attend rallies, oversampling of Democrats in polls, AI enhanced pictures at rallies, spent heavily on social media influencers, media buys and talking points.  It was all bogus. Only a moron is going to vote for Kamala.  No platform, unable to communicate or think  at a level above a 6th grader. The Democrat Party and Deep State are just hoping they can ride a coalition of TDS, dummies, and fake votes to victory in November. 

She's the epitome of someone who slept her way to the top.  She beats Trump on that platform.

[Hardcore troubadour 14,284]

Hawaii in play

[The Real timschochet 5,398]

Wow. What a circle jerk in here. You guys crack me up. Love especially how @Strike offered up Emerson- the same folks who now have Kamala within striking distance in Florida and Texas. Lololol. 

Sorry guys the momentum has been real all along and it’s still going strong. The race is still tight but all the signs are leaning in her direction. Am I being delusional again? We’ll find out pretty shortly. 
 

[MDC 6,822]

Texas and Florida in play.  

[The Real timschochet 5,398]

4 minutes ago, MDC said:

Texas and Florida in play.  

Yep. 
 

Here is 538 who only a month ago @Strike loved and is now ignoring- and he has the nerve to call anyone else a hack!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/?ex_cid=abcpromo

Harris is leading in almost all polling- including Emerson- and yet the momentum isn’t real. It’s slowed down and reversed. Sure it has. 
 

ETA- I shouldn’t have written “almost all”- she’s actually leading in every national poll. Of course they don’t use Rasmussen- too many land lines. 
In the swing states she’s either ahead or tied in all of them. 

[Beaker15 200]

Tim you are delusional

[Horseman 2,036]

Someone want to explain to the gimp how momentum isn't determinative of who is currently ahead or behind in a snapshot of time?  Probably not worth the breath.

And hey Tim, your link is the popular vote.    And even that's gone from 3.7% to 3.1% the past two weeks.  Reverse momentum.  

[Gepetto 1,199]

Putin: "As for the favorites, there's no need to define that, it's a choice by the people of America in the end. I've said that our so to say favorite was the acting President, Mr. Biden. He's been taken out of the race. But he's advised all of his supporters to support Mrs. Harris. That's what we'll do; we'll support her too. Secondly, her laugh is so expressive and infectious. That means she's doing well."

 

  

[Tree of Knowledge 1,477]

3 minutes ago, Gepetto said:

Putin: "As for the favorites, there's no need to define that, it's a choice by the people of America in the end. I've said that our so to say favorite was the acting President, Mr. Biden. He's been taken out of the race. But he's advised all of his supporters to support Mrs. Harris. That's what we'll do; we'll support her too. Secondly, her laugh is so expressive and infectious. That means she's doing well."

 

  

Putin seems to be the type of guy Kamala has taken a fancy to in the past.  Who’s to say….

[JuneJuly 192]

Most candidates get a convention bounce. Kamala loses ground.  Momentum!!!!

[JuneJuly 192]

1 hour ago, The Real timschochet said:

In the swing states she’s either ahead or tied in all of them. 

Hold up. GA, AZ and NC aren’t swing states?  Or are you just lying again?   

538 (your link) has Trump leading those 3.  And it has PA tied.  Trump wins those 3 and PA and its game over.  

You ill son.  

[seafoam1 2,579]

15 minutes ago, JuneJuly said:

Hold up. GA, AZ and NC aren’t swing states?  Or are you just lying again?   

538 (your link) has Trump leading those 3.  And it has PA tied.  Trump wins those 3 and PA and its game over.  

You ill son.  

Timmy thinks the swing states are California, Illinois, and New York. 

[The Real timschochet 5,398]

2 hours ago, Horseman said:

Someone want to explain to the gimp how momentum isn't determinative of who is currently ahead or behind in a snapshot of time?  Probably not worth the breath.

And hey Tim, your link is the popular vote.    And even that's gone from 3.7% to 3.1% the past two weeks.  Reverse momentum.  

I don’t think a half a point swing one way or the other is meaningful. I’m still looking at long term trend lines. 

[The Real timschochet 5,398]

1 hour ago, JuneJuly said:

Hold up. GA, AZ and NC aren’t swing states?  Or are you just lying again?   

538 (your link) has Trump leading those 3.  And it has PA tied.  Trump wins those 3 and PA and its game over.  

You ill son.  

If it’s within 2 points one way or the other I see it as essentially a tie. 

[The Real timschochet 5,398]

Another big reason I continue to argue that Kamala’s momentum hasn’t died out is that her personal favorability numbers continue to increase: 

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/harris-vs-trump-polls-kamala-popularity.html

This is a big deal. It wins elections. The fact is that people like Kamala now that they’re getting to know her. Her numbers prior to now were based on Biden’s performance, which was based on people’s dislike of inflation (not on their dislike of Biden; as inflation becomes less of an issue his numbers are rising as well.) 

[Hardcore troubadour 14,284]

2 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Another big reason I continue to argue that Kamala’s momentum hasn’t died out is that her personal favorability numbers continue to increase: 

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/harris-vs-trump-polls-kamala-popularity.html

This is a big deal. It wins elections. The fact is that people like Kamala now that they’re getting to know her. Her numbers prior to now were based on Biden’s performance, which was based on people’s dislike of inflation (not on their dislike of Biden; as inflation becomes less of an issue his numbers are rising as well.) 

You’re a woman 

[jerryskids 6,242]

2 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Another big reason I continue to argue that Kamala’s momentum hasn’t died out is that her personal favorability numbers continue to increase: 

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/harris-vs-trump-polls-kamala-popularity.html

This is a big deal. It wins elections. The fact is that people like Kamala now that they’re getting to know her. Her numbers prior to now were based on Biden’s performance, which was based on people’s dislike of inflation (not on their dislike of Biden; as inflation becomes less of an issue his numbers are rising as well.) 

What have they gotten to know about her?

[JuneJuly 192]

15 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

If it’s within 2 points one way or the other I see it as essentially a tie. 

So Trump is ahead or tied in every single swing state then.   Momentum!!!

[EternalShinyAndChrome 3,493]

3 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Another big reason I continue to argue that Kamala’s momentum hasn’t died out is that her personal favorability numbers continue to increase: 

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/harris-vs-trump-polls-kamala-popularity.html

This is a big deal. It wins elections. The fact is that people like Kamala now that they’re getting to know her. Her numbers prior to now were based on Biden’s performance, which was based on people’s dislike of inflation (not on their dislike of Biden; as inflation becomes less of an issue his numbers are rising as well.) 

This is absurd, Tim.  First you were all about polls when they showed Kamala in the lead.  Now that the honeymoon is over, she's dropped in the polls to the point where now Trump appears to have the advantage and you now proclaim the polls are wrong and then move on to some absurd popularity contest meter (by NYMag, of course) like you're still in high school.

You're all over place with your emotions like a teenage girl.  Think logically.

[Reality 3,055]

Not great. 

 

[Reality 3,055]

 

[JuneJuly 192]

How is Comrade Kamala only up 2 points (tied according to Tim) in WI?  That used to be pushing double digits. Isn't that the tampon state?  Momentum!!!!

[Reality 3,055]

 

[The Real timschochet 5,398]

1 hour ago, EternalShinyAndChrome said:

This is absurd, Tim.  First you were all about polls when they showed Kamala in the lead.  Now that the honeymoon is over, she's dropped in the polls to the point where now Trump appears to have the advantage and you now proclaim the polls are wrong and then move on to some absurd popularity contest meter (by NYMag, of course) like you're still in high school.

You're all over place with your emotions like a teenage girl.  Think logically.

When did I say the polls are wrong? They’re not wrong. Kamala leads nationwide and leads or is effectively tied in all the swing states. It’s a toss up for sure but I think she’s in a favorable position. That’s been my argument all along. 
 

The post you responded to was an argument I made IN ADDITION to the polling not as an alternative. 

[The Real timschochet 5,398]

And this “drop in the polls” thing is nonsense. Let’s be clear: if somebody is 10 points down, then catches up to take a 51-49 lead, then falls behind slightly to 51-49 the other way, that’s not a “drop in the polls.” That means she’s caught up to margin of error and is still caught up. 
Let me know when Kamala loses 5-10 points in a poll the way Trump has. Then I will pay attention. 

[Reality 3,055]

If the polls are close at all, that's not good for Democrats, everybody knows this.

[Strike 4,869]

25 minutes ago, Reality said:

If the polls are close at all, that's not good for Democrats, everybody knows this.

Trump has underpolled by several points in the polls in the previous two Presidential elections.  @The Real timschochet refuses to acknowledge that.  Just another data point that shows how much of an ignorant hack he is. 

[The Real timschochet 5,398]

1 hour ago, Strike said:

Trump has underpolled by several points in the polls in the previous two Presidential elections.  @The Real timschochet refuses to acknowledge that.  Just another data point that shows how much of an ignorant hack he is. 

To the contrary I’ve noted it many times before. However I don’t agree it represents a pattern. I suspect that this time around will reflect more of what we saw in 2022 in which the outrage against overturning Roe was severely underpolled. Look to see suburban women again rise up and suprise pollsters with their numbers for Kamala. 
As far as you calling me a hack I’ve already demonstrated why that is clearly projection on your part. 

[avoiding injuries 1,383]

“getting to know Kamala” >>> Inflation

[peenie 1,829]

I’ve had 2 polling texts ask who I was voting for and I chose Trump both times. 

[peenie 1,829]

Try to watch to the end:
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C_Bcs01Sqas/?igsh=YjYxaWR1OGhxM2Q3