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The Real timschochet

Trump talk only- no Eagles talk allowed (Steelers talk is OK though)

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1 minute ago, Strike said:

Oh yeah.  She seems to have a lot of accents in her arsenal, kind of like HItlery has a lot of hot sauces in her purse.

Listen to this racist accent 

 

 

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36 minutes ago, Horseman said:

It hints to the fact that a small portion of him knows he has a problem.  Imagine a message board dominating your life like that.  Not drugs, not alcohol, spreading political bile on a low rent website.  :lol:

It’s always amusing to see me psychoanalyzed. And guys like you always get it wrong. 
 

My motives for posting here are pretty simple: I enjoy discussing politics and there are a few folks here who offer thoughtful back and forth discussion even when I disagree with them: @jerryskids, @Voltaire, @Engorgeous George, a few others. Then there are a few guys who aren’t really serious but with whom I enjoy trading banter and insults back and forth: @Tree of Knowledge, @HellToupee, a few others. These guys make it worth it to come here. The rest of you dudes I tolerate. Sometimes I respond, sometimes you bore me. If you guys bore me too much I suppose I’ll leave. 

  • Haha 1

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1 minute ago, The Real timschochet said:

It’s always amusing to see me psychoanalyzed. And guys like you always get it wrong. 
 

My motives for posting here are pretty simple: I enjoy discussing politics and there are a few folks here who offer thoughtful back and forth discussion even when I disagree with them: @jerryskids, @Voltaire, @Engorgeous George, a few others. Then there are a few guys who aren’t really serious but with whom I enjoy trading banter and insults back and forth: @Tree of Knowledge, @HellToupee, a few others. These guys make it worth it to come here. The rest of you dudes I tolerate. Sometimes I respond, sometimes you bore me. If you guys bore me too much I suppose I’ll leave. 

Thanks, I think.  However, many people claim I am the most serious poster since Riversco/Justin.  

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3 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

It’s always amusing to see me psychoanalyzed. And guys like you always get it wrong. 
 

My motives for posting here are pretty simple: I enjoy discussing politics and there are a few folks here who offer thoughtful back and forth discussion even when I disagree with them: @jerryskids, @Voltaire, @Engorgeous George, a few others. Then there are a few guys who aren’t really serious but with whom I enjoy trading banter and insults back and forth: @Tree of Knowledge, @HellToupee, a few others. These guys make it worth it to come here. The rest of you dudes I tolerate. Sometimes I respond, sometimes you bore me. If you guys bore me too much I suppose I’ll leave. 

You can't leave. You have zero self control. :lol: 

You promised you wouldn't come here ever.  Too Vile!

You promised to stay in your own thread.  

Quote

The other day I wrote that I would be posting a lot less in this forum and that remains true UNLESS anyone wants to engage in some serious discussion with me: you know the kind where you offer ideas and mean them, no trolling, and you’re prepared to back up your arguments. The kind where you try to avoid name calling and gratuitous remarks. If nobody wants to do that, I get it, that’s fine. Stay out of this thread and I’ll stay out of yours. 

All of these things actually happened.  Self imposed.  And you did the same sort of thing multiple times at the other place before you got it shut down.  You're lying to yourself, seek professional help imo.  We'd be better off without your look at me crying for help opinion over fact posts. Then reporting people when you don't get your way.  You and the FBG rejects will get this place shut down too, just a matter of time.

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:banana:

 

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1 hour ago, Horseman said:

You can't leave. You have zero self control. :lol: 

You promised you wouldn't come here ever.  Too Vile!

You promised to stay in your own thread.  

All of these things actually happened.  Self imposed.  And you did the same sort of thing multiple times at the other place before you got it shut down.  You're lying to yourself, seek professional help imo.  We'd be better off without your look at me crying for help opinion over fact posts. Then reporting people when you don't get your way.  You and the FBG rejects will get this place shut down too, just a matter of time.

Poor timmy getting his ass kicked...

Again. 

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3 hours ago, The Real timschochet said:

Is this meant to be a trick question? Most American Muslims believe that Israel is committing grave crimes by killing innocent people in Gaza and Lebanon. But you knew this. 

If they believe this in particular about Lebanon, they are getting the same disinformation that you are.

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45 minutes ago, squistion said:

:banana:

 

 

I love that you keep reminding us that Kamalatoe and her party are the party of elites and big donors and not the party of the people they used to be :thumbsup:

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1 hour ago, squistion said:

:banana:

 

I guess she doesn't need that $5 that Saint Barack asked me for during the football games this weekend? :dunno:

 

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2 minutes ago, League Champion said:

Jesus Christ, she's a dumb C. 

Can you believe these assclowns willingly voting for her

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1 minute ago, HellToupee said:

willingly

It's unreal. She's DEI, she's dumb, she can't think on her own, can't answer a question and has no plan for this Country. 

But they'll still vote for her 

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Kamala is doing interviews because she’s tanking but the more she does the more she tanks

 

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4 minutes ago, HellToupee said:

Kamala is doing interviews because she’s tanking but the more she does the more she tanks

 

lol you guys were ripping her for giving no interviews. Now you’re ripping her for giving interviews. And all the while Trump spews out absolute crazy sh!t and lies 24/7. And you’re dissecting her words. It would be hilarious if it wasn’t so pathetic and dangerous for this country. 

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And yet, she’s still going to be the 47th President of the United States. :banana:

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4 new polls have Harris ahead nationally by 2-5 points: 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/10/09/trump-vs-harris-2024-polls-harris-leads-by-2-points-in-latest-survey/

However another poll, from ActiVote, gives Trump the edge: 

https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-national-polls-1966429

Per Nate Silver, Trump has an electoral college differential of 3 points- kind of like a home field advantage. So for Kamala to win the election, she has to be ahead nationally by 3 points- if she is ahead by 2 or less, or behind, then Trump is likely to win. 

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1 hour ago, The Real timschochet said:

lol you guys were ripping her for giving no interviews. Now you’re ripping her for giving interviews. And all the while Trump spews out absolute crazy sh!t and lies 24/7. And you’re dissecting her words. It would be hilarious if it wasn’t so pathetic and dangerous for this country. 

I think we can better understand now why they were not having her do interviews.  They clearly knew she was a mess and made an effort to shield her, as long as the press was able to tout her and sell her to the public.   That they are doing this now suggests they have some internal polling and they are perhaps just a little desperate. 

They keep trotting her out, she keeps confirming who she is, which is an empty and vacuous person. Its a tough spot to be in

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Actually to correct the above: 

1. if Kamala is ahead nationally by 1 point or less, Trump is very likely to win the election. 
2. If Kamala is ahead nationally by 2 points then it’s a dead heat, 50/50 outcome. 
3. If Kamala is ahead nationally by 3 points or more, she is very likely to win. 

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3 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

4 new polls have Harris ahead nationally by 2-5 points: 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/10/09/trump-vs-harris-2024-polls-harris-leads-by-2-points-in-latest-survey/

However another poll, from ActiVote, gives Trump the edge: 

https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-national-polls-1966429

Per Nate Silver, Trump has an electoral college differential of 3 points- kind of like a home field advantage. So for Kamala to win the election, she has to be ahead nationally by 3 points- if she is ahead by 2 or less, or behind, then Trump is likely to win. 

I think polling is a tricky business. I am not sure we can really trust any of it......

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2 minutes ago, RLLD said:

I think polling is a tricky business. I am not sure we can really trust any of it......

I’m going to repeat over and over- you look for trends. For example, take Morning Consult. It does a national poll every week. Last week it had Kamala up by 5 points. This week it has Kamala up by 5 points. That doesn’t tell us that she’s actually up by 5 points, but it does suggest that nothing happened between last week and this week that changed anyone’s opinions. 
 

With no further debates scheduled, it’s hard to see what might happen over the next 4 weeks that will change the numbers. People always talk about an October surprise but not sure what that would be. 

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Just now, The Real timschochet said:

I’m going to repeat over and over- you look for trends. For example, take Morning Consult. It does a national poll every week. Last week it had Kamala up by 5 points. This week it has Kamala up by 5 points. That doesn’t tell us that she’s actually up by 5 points, but it does suggest that nothing happened between last week and this week that changed anyone’s opinions. 
 

With no further debates scheduled, it’s hard to see what might happen over the next 4 weeks that will change the numbers. People always talk about an October surprise but not sure what that would be. 

I think that if you have an approach to it, that likely helps.   But even then, I look at polling now more than ever.....as nothing more than guessing at this point. Whether those polls suggest a candidate I favor is leading or not.

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8 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Actually to correct the above: 

1. if Kamala is ahead nationally by 1 point or less, Trump is very likely to win the election. 
2. If Kamala is ahead nationally by 2 points then it’s a dead heat, 50/50 outcome. 
3. If Kamala is ahead nationally by 3 points or more, she is very likely to win. 

If Donald doesn’t have at least an 8% lead he will lose . 
 

5% is already baked in for the shenanigans in a normal election 

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iMO there is going to be no significant changing anyone’s minds, and few undecideds left. This election will be decided by those who actually vote. Specifically I’m thinking of Gen Z- they are heavily for Kamala. But will they actually take time away from partying, work and  school (in that order) to vote? If they do she wins. If they don’t Trump wins. 

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Tim is ignoring the swing state polls that came out today.   LOL

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2 minutes ago, HellToupee said:

If Donald doesn’t have at least an 8% lead he will lose . 
 

5% is already baked in for the shenanigans in a normal election 

I love the word “shenanigans”. IMO, life doesn’t have enough shenanigans. 

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2 minutes ago, Strike said:

Tim is ignoring the swing state polls that came out today.   LOL

You mean like the one I have in the title of this thread? What a troll you are. 

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4 minutes ago, HellToupee said:

If Donald doesn’t have at least an 8% lead he will lose . 
 

5% is already baked in for the shenanigans in a normal election 

I have collected thousands of shotgunned ballots. Ready to do my part .

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3 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

You mean like the one I have in the title of this thread? What a troll you are. 

No, I'm referring to the ones you're ignoring.  Hence my comment.

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2 minutes ago, Strike said:

No, I'm referring to the ones you're ignoring.  Hence my comment.

You’re talking about the Quinnipiac polls that have Trump slightly ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin. But they also show Harris ahead in Pennsylvania. If I posted those you would just accuse me of ignoring polls that showed her behind in Pennsylvania. Which is why you’re a troll. 

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2 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

You’re talking about the Quinnipiac polls that have Trump slightly ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin. But they also show Harris ahead in Pennsylvania. If I posted those you would just accuse me of ignoring polls that showed her behind in Pennsylvania. Which is why you’re a troll. 

ROFLMAO.  You loved to use the names people call you against them.  The difference is I've shown you why you're a troll.   You're literally saying that I'm right here.  You acknowledge that you're ignoring polls but then call ME a troll.  You're really nowhere near as smart as you think you are. 

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24 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

I have collected thousands of shotgunned ballots. Ready to do my part .

Painfully unfunny. So cringe as the kids say. 

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1 minute ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Painfully unfunny. So cringe as the kids say. 

When I think humor, I think Hardcore Troubadore!

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