Trump talk only- no Eagles talk allowed (Steelers talk is OK though)

[TimHauck 2,449]

14 minutes ago, HellToupee said:

He’s done it after her rallies and it’s never been disputed. Now I’ll assume democrats are just as smart as republicans , why isn’t his data disproven? 

Ah the old “if they don’t dispute the allegations some guy on Twitter makes it must be true” line.

Never change GC

[purdygood 306]

11 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

Ultimate alpha male endorsement 

 

Arnold wasn't born in America!

[Horseman 1,987]

Amazing that it took the SCOTUS to kick illegals off voter rolls.  They want to cheat sooooooooooo bad.  None of the regulars will be upset about this I'm sure.

 

 

[TimHauck 2,449]

1 hour ago, jerryskids said:

Lefties here hate data tho.   

Big crowd!  

of paid Antifa losers

Honest question, who is this guy?  He claims to have cell phone data on every phone in the country?  He’s gotta be pretty rich to be able to afford that, unless he is misusing data he received by being a “CIA contractor.”  Also isn’t the point of working with the CIA that you shouldn’t put it in your twitter bio?

[TimHauck 2,449]

 

[jerryskids 6,170]

17 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Honest question, who is this guy?  He claims to have cell phone data on every phone in the country?  He’s gotta be pretty rich to be able to afford that, unless he is misusing data he received by being a “CIA contractor.”  Also isn’t the point of working with the CIA that you shouldn’t put it in your twitter bio?

Honest answer:  I don't know him personally.  I know that he has had multiple similar analyses posted here recently.  I just checked out his X account and he has a lot of posts that seem to lend credibility to him being involved with such things.  And it seems a weird thing to provide such exact-sounding data on. 

He also clearly is a MAGA deplorable NAZI scumbag, though.  So, the Left can just claim he is biased.

I don't know where he gets the data.  It doesn't seem like something that would be publicly available.  I would presume that somebody in the government is investigating this, if it's potentially illegal.

[TimHauck 2,449]

2 minutes ago, jerryskids said:

Honest answer:  I don't know him personally.  I know that he has had multiple similar analyses posted here recently.  I just checked out his X account and he has a lot of posts that seem to lend credibility to him being involved with such things.  And it seems a weird thing to provide such exact-sounding data on. 

He also clearly is a MAGA deplorable NAZI scumbag, though.  So, the Left can just claim he is biased.

I don't know where he gets the data.  It doesn't seem like something that would be publicly available.  I would presume that somebody in the government is investigating this, if it's potentially illegal.

Well he is definitely biased, that is obvious.  The question is whether or not the data is legit.

[jerryskids 6,170]

1 minute ago, TimHauck said:

Well he is definitely biased, that is obvious.  The question is whether or not the data is legit.

It seems that half his posts are pro-Republican, and the other half are how the government and corporations can spy on you through your phone.  This latter group can be seen to lend credibility to his data, but it also seems a little odd that he is doing the spying that he so warns about.

[OldMaid 2,108]

1 hour ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

They didn't vote for Trump to begin with. They have hated him from the start. He isn't losing any real voters who had already voted for him.

Have you seen how many black voters are pro Trump now though? It's a lot. Republicans are setting records in early votes.

You are straight up wrong. Lots of people saying this is their 1st time voting Dem (being previous Trump voters) and voting straight blue down the ticket. He’s lost college educated white men, being dubbed Dobb’s Dads. And he’s even down with non-college educated white men. Men in general is the only demographic he’s leading in and he knows this. That’s why you’re seeing the campaign swing to the total bro mode. He’s banking on the young male vote who is the least reliable voting bloc there is.

Republicans have being saying this for years and it never happens. They’ve managed to move the % by a point over how many years?

Republican women.  The data is out there.

[HellToupee 1,254]

5 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Well he is definitely biased, that is obvious.  The question is whether or not the data is legit.

If his data isn’t legit it would be hammered every time he posts it

[thegeneral 2,496]

15 minutes ago, jerryskids said:

Honest answer:  I don't know him personally.  I know that he has had multiple similar analyses posted here recently.  I just checked out his X account and he has a lot of posts that seem to lend credibility to him being involved with such things.  And it seems a weird thing to provide such exact-sounding data on. 

He also clearly is a MAGA deplorable NAZI scumbag, though.  So, the Left can just claim he is biased.

I don't know where he gets the data.  It doesn't seem like something that would be publicly available.  I would presume that somebody in the government is investigating this, if it's potentially illegal.

What gave you this idea? 

[TimHauck 2,449]

6 minutes ago, HellToupee said:

If his data isn’t legit it would be hammered every time he posts it

 

1 hour ago, TimHauck said:

Ah the old “if they don’t dispute the allegations some guy on Twitter makes it must be true” line.

Never change GC

 

[HellToupee 1,254]

Interesting 

[HellToupee 1,254]

1 minute ago, TimHauck said:

 

 

None of his posts have any community notes or even any proposed notes. I’m in  community notes and can vote on proposed notes etc

[TimHauck 2,449]

12 minutes ago, jerryskids said:

It seems that half his posts are pro-Republican, and the other half are how the government and corporations can spy on you through your phone.  This latter group can be seen to lend credibility to his data, but it also seems a little odd that he is doing the spying that he so warns about.

And posts like this take away that credibility.  I’m shocked, shocked I say that this guy is upset about Biden’s garbage comment after posting a video that Democrats are retarded.

 

[TimHauck 2,449]

Just now, HellToupee said:

None of his posts have any community notes or even any proposed notes. I’m in  community notes and can vote on proposed notes etc

Who would have the data to disprove him other than the government?  and I’m not even sure if they do

[HellToupee 1,254]

1 minute ago, TimHauck said:

Who would have the data to disprove him other than the government?  and I’m not even sure if they do

The data is presented as factual. No one has refuted the data so you can either believe or don’t believe it. 

[thegeneral 2,496]

9 minutes ago, HellToupee said:

None of his posts have any community notes or even any proposed notes. I’m in  community notes and can vote on proposed notes etc

He talks about ghost buses on Jan 6th with people dressed like ninjas in his pinned headline post. 

[TimHauck 2,449]

1 minute ago, HellToupee said:

The data is presented as factual. No one has refuted the data so you can either believe or don’t believe it. 

No one?  Wanna bet?

[HellToupee 1,254]

4 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

He talks about ghost buses on Jan 6th with people dressed like ninjas in his pinned headline post. 

Yes there were ghost buses . The nondescript DOJ vans dropped off people in black and the J6 pipe bomber 

[HellToupee 1,254]

What’s the deal with this? Owns the digital id of every mobile device/computer??

 

I also read a post of his that basically said the same thing Snowden said , that phones can be tracked even with it powered off and some with the battery removed.

 

Benefit from a lifetime of strategic partnerships. Tony, his partners and team member’s clients have included the United States Government, British Government, Israeli Government, Saudi Arabia Government, NEOM, Microsoft, Dell Computers, GE, IBM, General Motors Corporation, The Scott Fetzer Corporation, Managing Dutch East India Company Archives for UNESCO, Procter & Gamble, Raytheon, Mastercard, Walmart, Northrop Grumman, Berkshire Hathaway, General Dynamics, BAE Systems, Standard Oil aka ExxonMobil, Saudi Aramco, et al.

Tony’s been a lifetime data scientist. He owns the digital ID of every mobile device/computer in the U.S. and has indexed and archived every IP address in the world. Tony’s extensive experience in big and deep data, including geotracking and geolocation makes his companies the top authority for providing data to corporations, law enforcement and U.S. government agencies like the CIA, NSA, DoD, DIA, NGA, NRO, FBI, as well as Interpol and foreign intelligence organizations.

[TimHauck 2,449]

This Seruga guy seems like he could be a more sophisticated and not anonymous “Black Insurrectionist”

[TimHauck 2,449]

The water tower sniper in Butler escaped via a zipline guys!

https://twitter.com/mockingbird9222/status/1815599686553612299
 

 

 

 

[thegeneral 2,496]

23 minutes ago, HellToupee said:

Yes there were ghost buses . The nondescript DOJ vans dropped off people in black and the J6 pipe bomber 

What ever came of the investigation into the ghost busses? These were brought up during the Jan 6th congressional hearings.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,883]

1 hour ago, OldMaid said:

You are straight up wrong. Lots of people saying this is their 1st time voting Dem (being previous Trump voters) and voting straight blue down the ticket. He’s lost college educated white men, being dubbed Dobb’s Dads. And he’s even down with non-college educated white men. Men in general is the only demographic he’s leading in and he knows this. That’s why you’re seeing the campaign swing to the total bro mode. He’s banking on the young male vote who is the least reliable voting bloc there is.

Republicans have being saying this for years and it never happens. They’ve managed to move the % by a point over how many years?

Republican women.  The data is out there.

keep telling yourself this. Yeah it's a total coincidence that his speaking engagements are bringing in massive crowds. There were over 20k people around McDonalds to get a glimpse of him. Definitely no correlation.

[OldMaid 2,108]

Trump rage tweeting in the middle of the night about massive voter fraud in PA. I guess someone knows he lost PA.

[Hardcore troubadour 14,164]

36 minutes ago, HellToupee said:

Yes there were ghost buses . The nondescript DOJ vans dropped off people in black and the J6 pipe bomber 

Fact

[OldMaid 2,108]

2 minutes ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

keep telling yourself this. Yeah it's a total coincidence that his speaking engagements are bringing in massive crowds. There were over 20k people around McDonalds to get a glimpse of him. Definitely no correlation.

And… ??? You think no one is showing up for Harris?

[HellToupee 1,254]

6 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

What ever came of the investigation into the ghost busses? These were brought up during the Jan 6th congressional hearings.

It’s hard to investigate when the feds were running an operation. They refused to say how many took part. We know they were there taking part and we know there were bad faith actors there that day as well. How many feds were with the initial group going in? I would expect a few but if there was a lot then that says something.

[HellToupee 1,254]

2 minutes ago, OldMaid said:

Trump rage tweeting in the middle of the night about massive voter fraud in PA. I guess someone knows he lost PA.

Thanks tim 

[Sean Mooney 1,815]

28 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

This Seruga guy seems like he could be a more sophisticated and not anonymous “Black Insurrectionist”

Who were the guys swearing up and down that "Black Insurrectionist" was legit? Digby? Jonmx?

It was hilarious when it was uncovered it was a white dude in his basement making those posts. 

[OldMaid 2,108]

1 minute ago, HellToupee said:

Thanks tim 

Ok, HT (not the big deal one)

[thegeneral 2,496]

5 minutes ago, HellToupee said:

It’s hard to investigate when the feds were running an operation. They refused to say how many took part. We know they were there taking part and we know there were bad faith actors there that day as well. How many feds were with the initial group going in? I would expect a few but if there was a lot then that says something.

The idea that some secret operation to set up Don would be happening but they would all take busses there, they would wear matching outfits, park in a lot, and use cell phones that this goober could track seems unlikely to me.

I think there are better explanations.

[Sean Mooney 1,815]

Here is all you can say we know about polling averages for this- According to 538 Kamala is up 1.4% nationally on Trump, but Trump has a 52% chance of winning the EV based on how states may fall inside those percentages. Depending on what aggregator you use those numbers may vary some but the general feeling across the board is Kamala wins the popular vote, Trump wins the EC.

Now- we know in 2016 there was a polling miss in favor of Trump. In 2020 there was a polling miss in favor of Trump. In 2022 there was a polling miss in favor of Democrats in general as the red wave that was predicted did not happen exactly. Additionally- no party has been underestimated in the polls in swing states for three consecutive election Presidential election cycles since roughly 1972. 

If the polls are off like in 2016 or 2020 then Trump will almost assuredly win in a walk. If they are off like in 2022 then it will be Kamala in a walk. If they are in the middle somewhere we have a down to the wire finish. I tend to think it is somewhere in the middle leaning Trump because as per usual- MAGA people want Trump, not someone other than Trump acting like Trump. 2022 didn't have Trump on the ballot so it may be an outlier here.

Anyone predicting a landslide in any way is just going with their personal feelings rather than what stats and numbers would point to as closer to reality. 

[TimHauck 2,449]

59 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

He talks about ghost buses on Jan 6th with people dressed like ninjas in his pinned headline post. 

Also claims to have every IP address in the whole world, which seems unlikely 

[OldMaid 2,108]

6 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

Here is all you can say we know about polling averages for this- According to 538 Kamala is up 1.4% nationally on Trump, but Trump has a 52% chance of winning the EV based on how states may fall inside those percentages. Depending on what aggregator you use those numbers may vary some but the general feeling across the board is Kamala wins the popular vote, Trump wins the EC.

Now- we know in 2016 there was a polling miss in favor of Trump. In 2020 there was a polling miss in favor of Trump. In 2022 there was a polling miss in favor of Democrats in general as the red wave that was predicted did not happen exactly. Additionally- no party has been underestimated in the polls in swing states for three consecutive election Presidential election cycles since roughly 1972. 

If the polls are off like in 2016 or 2020 then Trump will almost assuredly win in a walk. If they are off like in 2022 then it will be Kamala in a walk. If they are in the middle somewhere we have a down to the wire finish. I tend to think it is somewhere in the middle leaning Trump because as per usual- MAGA people want Trump, not someone other than Trump acting like Trump. 2022 didn't have Trump on the ballot so it may be an outlier here.

Anyone predicting a landslide in any way is just going with their personal feelings rather than what stats and numbers would point to as closer to reality. 

Going back to 1972, the are zero times the polling data has underestimated support for one party 3 times in a row. That would be unprecedented.

[Sean Mooney 1,815]

1 minute ago, OldMaid said:

Going back to 1972, the are zero times the polling data has underestimated support for one party 3 times in a row. That would be unprecedented.

Yeah i mentioned that somewhere in the post. It would be strange....but of course- first time for everything.

[OldMaid 2,108]

Just now, Sean Mooney said:

Yeah i mentioned that somewhere in the post. It would be strange....but of course- first time for everything.

Silver also tweeted yesterday that there is poll herding going on. He’s already making excuses for why the polling will be wrong.

[thegeneral 2,496]

8 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Also claims to have every IP address in the whole world, which seems unlikely 

Def has MyPillow guy vibes with his “information and data”.

[TimHauck 2,449]

Just now, thegeneral said:

Def has MyPillow guy vibes with his “information and data”.

Lol -

https://twitter.com/NoLongerBennett/status/1825214221681926167