Showboat 247 Posted June 25 I think the point is that precedent in the NFL means nothing. Goodell could turn on a dime and hand down a suspension before there is any legal determination or he could give a slap on the wrist even if there is a conviction. Plus there is the fact that stupid people usually can't stop themselves from continuing to do stupid things. It is probably foolish to not incorporate those uncertainties/risks into any FF value/ranking you make for Rice, or any other KC WRs. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kcBlitzkrieg 29 Posted June 25 21 minutes ago, Showboat said: I think the point is that precedent in the NFL means nothing. Goodell could turn on a dime and hand down a suspension before there is any legal determination or he could give a slap on the wrist even if there is a conviction. Plus there is the fact that stupid people usually can't stop themselves from continuing to do stupid things. It is probably foolish to not incorporate those uncertainties/risks into any FF value/ranking you make for Rice, or any other KC WRs. Not discounting this at all, hence the possibility of suspension is already priced into the ADP. I guess then I am a proponent of the value you are getting by the "implied odds" the market has set for suspension. My perceived value is based on facts at hand, not "guess work" on what some people "think Goodell will do". “Well, first, we allowed the legal process to move through,” Goodell said during his opening interview Thursday with ESPN’s Mike Greenberg at the first round of the draft. “We obviously are following it closely, and as soon as they’re done with the process, we will be engaged and be prepared to look at that under all of our personal contact policies.” -Goodell, April 26th 2024 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Showboat 247 Posted June 25 To answer the OP question, I think Brown is the KC WR to own. I like that he is playing on a one year prove-it contract in the best situation he has ever been in. I just don't trust Rice to keep his nose clean and even if he does, I expect some regression and a bit of a sophomore slump. By the end of the season, Worthy may be the man but I don't think he will produce consistently this year. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 3,009 Posted June 25 1 hour ago, Showboat said: To answer the OP question, I think Brown is the KC WR to own. I like that he is playing on a one year prove-it contract in the best situation he has ever been in. I just don't trust Rice to keep his nose clean and even if he does, I expect some regression and a bit of a sophomore slump. By the end of the season, Worthy may be the man but I don't think he will produce consistently this year. If Rice doesn’t play, it’s an easy decision for Brown, and I wouldn’t even touch Worthy in redraft. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Showboat 247 Posted June 26 4 hours ago, weepaws said: If Rice doesn’t play, it’s an easy decision for Brown, and I wouldn’t even touch Worthy in redraft. If we could predict the future with 100% accuracy, all the decisions would be easy. With what we know today and the uncertainty of how Rice will handle the off-field distractions (not to mention any potential punishment), I think Brown is the better and safer choice. I could certainly be wrong and Rice could build on his promising rookie year or Worthy could turn out to be a dominant rookie or Toney could suddenly figure it out..... I just happen to think that all of those scenarios are less likely than Brown being the alpha WR for KC this year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 3,009 Posted June 26 Unless Rice isn’t/going to be able to play, yes Brown gets the Vote, But Rice is the better wr. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cmh6476 918 Posted June 26 This would be a perfect thread to point out that Mahomes has as many Lombardi's as starter than all other projected starters combined. And he has more playoff wins than all combined sans Rodgers and Wilson. That is phenomenal, especially when you consider this might be Rodgers and Wilson's last chance to get back to the playoffs. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Showboat 247 Posted June 26 13 minutes ago, cmh6476 said: This would be a perfect thread to point out that Mahomes has as many Lombardi's as starter than all other projected starters combined. And he has more playoff wins than all combined sans Rodgers and Wilson. That is phenomenal, especially when you consider this might be Rodgers and Wilson's last chance to get back to the playoffs. I think you are mis-reading the chart for playoff wins - the number applies to each QB so that would be 36 combined wins versus 15 for Mahomes (not counting Wilson & Rodgers). But still, I don't think that anyone doubts that Mahomes is the best QB in the league right now. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cmh6476 918 Posted June 26 6 hours ago, Showboat said: I think you are mis-reading the chart for playoff wins - the number applies to each QB so that would be 36 combined wins versus 15 for Mahomes (not counting Wilson & Rodgers). But still, I don't think that anyone doubts that Mahomes is the best QB in the league right now. Good mathing, thanks Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WhiteWonder 2,483 Posted June 27 Even with no suspension or continued issues for Rice, I have this gut feeling Brown will still be the 1A. The Chiefs have recently whiffed on speed receivers so I have little interest in Worthy for redraft. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ray_T 721 Posted June 28 11 hours ago, WhiteWonder said: Even with no suspension or continued issues for Rice, I have this gut feeling Brown will still be the 1A. The Chiefs have recently whiffed on speed receivers so I have little interest in Worthy for redraft. a lot of players who have tons of stuff going on off the field seem to have trouble keeping it together on the field. Even if no suspension happens, I'd be very careful about paying for Rice. I suspect Brown may end up being a bigger player in this offense than a lot of people think Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 3,009 Posted June 28 M Brown in ppr adp late Wr2. R Rice in ppr adp late wr3, early wr4. If Rice is playing , he’s going to be a darn good value. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kcBlitzkrieg 29 Posted July 5 Hollywood has had a minimum of 100 targets every season he's played except his rookie year with Ravens. Rashee barely broke 100 targets this past rookie season for him. Hollywood is playing the MVS role in this offense. MVS got a little over 80 targets his best season with Mahomes, with an exact 50% catch on target rate. Only scored 3 TDs with Patrick in those 2 seasons. Brown's career catch rate is a little better than 60% so this comes down to how many targets one expects Brown to get. Is he MVS ? No, he is a faster more elusive version with a little better hands and explosion. Mahomes will be the best QB the guy has every played with. He will score TDs with Patrick. Hollywood's career high is 8 TDs. He should get to that number. He will also be a guy who gets about 100 targets, catches 65-75 balls for maybe 1000 yards. IF Rashee gets suspended then obviously Brown will be of much greater value ADP wise. He would be in store for a career year if Rice were to get 6 games or more. IF Rashee is not suspended then Rice will be the better value ADP wise for sure as he will start off just like he left off last season....a very close #2, or about even, target monster for Sir Patrick. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 3,009 Posted July 5 Mahomes trust Rice, their chemistry was only getting stronger as the season went on. Rice plays he a darn good value. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
IGotWorms 4,028 Posted July 5 2 hours ago, kcBlitzkrieg said: Hollywood has had a minimum of 100 targets every season he's played except his rookie year with Ravens. Rashee barely broke 100 targets this past rookie season for him. Hollywood is playing the MVS role in this offense. MVS got a little over 80 targets his best season with Mahomes, with an exact 50% catch on target rate. Only scored 3 TDs with Patrick in those 2 seasons. Brown's career catch rate is a little better than 60% so this comes down to how many targets one expects Brown to get. Is he MVS ? No, he is a faster more elusive version with a little better hands and explosion. Mahomes will be the best QB the guy has every played with. He will score TDs with Patrick. Hollywood's career high is 8 TDs. He should get to that number. He will also be a guy who gets about 100 targets, catches 65-75 balls for maybe 1000 yards. IF Rashee gets suspended then obviously Brown will be of much greater value ADP wise. He would be in store for a career year if Rice were to get 6 games or more. IF Rashee is not suspended then Rice will be the better value ADP wise for sure as he will start off just like he left off last season....a very close #2, or about even, target monster for Sir Patrick. I don’t think Hollywood is as one dimensional as MVS. So I’d bump up your optimistic projections a bit. Let’s say 85 catches for 1200 yards and 9 TDs. That makes him a high-end WR2 no? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maximum Overkill 1,404 Posted July 5 What has Hollywood ever done? He went over 1,000 yards only once in his career, at 1,008 yards. Besides that he's done dog crap. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 3,009 Posted July 5 50 minutes ago, IGotWorms said: I don’t think Hollywood is as one dimensional as MVS. So I’d bump up your optimistic projections a bit. Let’s say 85 catches for 1200 yards and 9 TDs. That makes him a high-end WR2 no? Maybe obtainable by Brown if Rice isn’t going to be playing. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maximum Overkill 1,404 Posted July 5 Stay off of Brown and take the upside of Worthy. Brown isn't going to win you anything Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
IGotWorms 4,028 Posted July 6 19 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said: Stay off of Brown and take the upside of Worthy. Brown isn't going to win you anything Seems pretty unlikely that worthy wins you anything in redraft Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maximum Overkill 1,404 Posted July 6 1 minute ago, IGotWorms said: Seems pretty unlikely that worthy wins you anything in redraft So why not go with upside, especially since we already know what Brown is? That's if you're playing to win. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GobbleDog 918 Posted July 6 13 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said: Stay off of Brown and take the upside of Worthy. All-time fastest 40-yd dash in NFL combine history... 2024 Xavier Worthy 4.21 Olympic track star speed. Problem is virtually none of the fastest Wrs in the NFL have fared well. It's like they've perfected speed, but lack other skills to be successful at the NFL level like route-running, tackle-breaking, rebounding, catching, etc. Maybe Worthy will be the exception, but that remains to be seen. My guess is he returns kick-offs/punts and has a couple spike receiving games during the season, but not a reliable starter. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maximum Overkill 1,404 Posted July 6 8 minutes ago, GobbleDog said: My guess is he returns kick-offs/punts and has a couple spike receiving games during the season, but not a reliable starter Why? He's not Ross. This kid is a legit WR not just a speed demon. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GobbleDog 918 Posted July 6 4 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said: Why? He's not Ross. This kid is a legit WR not just a speed demon. I've read scouts say Worthy is actually a decent route-runner. The knock is too many drops from lack of concentration or "body-catching" due to the short catch radius. Maybe some of that can be coached out of him. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 3,009 Posted July 6 In redraft Worthy, isn’t worthy. Keeper league I would pick him. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maximum Overkill 1,404 Posted July 6 2 hours ago, weepaws said: In redraft Worthy, isn’t worthy. Keeper league I would pick him. His ADP is nothing, that's why you take a shot. There's no true #1 in KC, if he earns meaningful targets then you may have your next Puka. Nobody drafted Puka in re-draft, I certainly didn't. You're telling me that at that draft Capital, he can't be a Tank Dell? You just drop him if it doesn't work out and hit the waiver wire. Fantasy Football is all about upside, that's how we win. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 3,009 Posted July 6 Worthy isn’t worthy in redraft simple. Keeper leagues is a pickup. In my 14 non ppr, he might make it unto a team, but he’s not sitting on my bench waiting for what will not happen. In my 12 team ppr, I’m not sure he even gets drafted. If he does start to produce after the draft different issue. I don’t see a lot of the upside in a redraft. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maximum Overkill 1,404 Posted July 6 4 minutes ago, weepaws said: 12 team ppr, I’m not sure he even gets drafted Bullshizz, then you're in a free ESPN league. You're not drafting a 1st round WR who's on the best team in the League with maybe the best QB ever?? That's nonsense! So you'll draft Mooney but not him? Good luck Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 3,009 Posted July 6 23 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said: Bullshizz, then you're in a free ESPN league. You're not drafting a 1st round WR who's on the best team in the League with maybe the best QB ever?? That's nonsense! So you'll draft Mooney but not him? Good luck Yea I will draft Mooney over him. Don’t need luck. Thanks. I know he won’t be on my team, might be on someone’s team, he won’t be draft in my non ppr team. Maybe ppr. I hope so, he’s going to be bench warmer for someone. I’ll be more productive with Mooney. Thanks. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maximum Overkill 1,404 Posted July 6 23 minutes ago, weepaws said: Yea I will draft Mooney over him. That's absolutely foolish. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 3,009 Posted July 6 1 hour ago, Maximum Overkill said: That's absolutely foolish. No it’s not, it’s absolutely perfect. Neither in my 14 team non ppr, or 12 team ppr league do I have Worthy listed, st this time, on my cheat sheet rankings. I’ll let the brilliant minded have him. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maximum Overkill 1,404 Posted July 7 5 hours ago, weepaws said: No it’s not, it’s absolutely perfect. Neither in my 14 team non ppr, or 12 team ppr league do I have Worthy listed, st this time, on my cheat sheet rankings. I’ll let the brilliant minded have him. We'll touch base at the end of the season and see who has more fantasy points, Mooney or Worthy. That's easy money Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 3,009 Posted July 7 2 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said: We'll touch base at the end of the season and see who has more fantasy points, Mooney or Worthy. That's easy money Sounds good. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kcBlitzkrieg 29 Posted July 10 On 7/5/2024 at 7:46 PM, Maximum Overkill said: Stay off of Brown and take the upside of Worthy. Brown isn't going to win you anything With Hollywood injury perhaps or 8 game suspension for Rice..... otherwise, Worthy's season will be no better than a Mecole Hardman like stat line. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jtztdm 2 Posted July 15 I am not touching a receiver from kc this year. Kelce is the only one I want Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 3,009 Posted July 15 15 minutes ago, jtztdm said: I am not touching a receiver from kc this year. Kelce is the only one I want I am, in mock drafts I’ve landed Rice or M Brown almost every draft, very good value. Mostly getting them as a wr4. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maximum Overkill 1,404 Posted July 16 13 hours ago, weepaws said: I am, in mock drafts I’ve landed Rice or M Brown almost every draft, very good value. Mostly getting them as a wr4. Rice is a steal there. I want no parts of Brown. I'd rather the upside of Worthy over an average at best Hollywood. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 3,009 Posted July 16 I would rather have Brown over Worthy. If Rice misses time, Brown will be their wr1 until Rice can return, Worthy not so much imo. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gcmmidwest 147 Posted July 17 Brown = fragile handle with care Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maximum Overkill 1,404 Posted July 17 Brown only went over 800 yards just ONCE in his career. Why can't people let go? He's not a WR1, never was. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 3,009 Posted July 17 59 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said: Brown only went over 800 yards just ONCE in his career. Why can't people let go? He's not a WR1, never was. Agreed he’s not a wr1, but if Rice misses time he will be Mahomes wr1, and the best Qb Brown has ever played with, so this could be season two with 800 plus yards. NFL wr1, no, FF wr 1. No. I wouldn’t worry about drafted either him or Rice before their adp, wr4 would be great. . Time for you to let this frustration you have about people’s opinions go. Thanks 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
