2024 Top 10 Rbs - let's discuss

[GobbleDog 975]

It's that time of year gentlemen. Let's talk turkey! Top 10 Rb (ppr) per FantasyPros:

1) Christian McCaffery - ADP 1.01. Last year 16 games, 272 car, 1,459 yds (5.4 avg), 67 rec, 564 yds, 21 total Tds with seven 100-yd rush games.  Finished #1 Rb with 24.5 pt/gm. No major coaching or personnel changes. O-line ranks 1st. Ironman past two years, but turns 28 yo soon with 1,968 career touches. At 1.01 McCaff is the ultimate boom/bust player considering age-usage-history. Some worry the Niners might reduce work for playoff push, but the same was said last year and never happened. We shall see...

2)  Breece Hall - APD 1.07. Last year 17 games, 223 car, 994 yds (4.5 avg), 76 rec, 591 yds, 9 total Tds with three 100-yd rush games. Finished #2 Rb with 17.1 pt/gm. Jets drafted a 1st rd O-lineman - no major coaching change, but offense should boost with Rodgers healthy. O-line ranks 4th. Hall just turned 23 yo and enters junior season. Nothing to knock... the clear goal line back, reception guru, great o-line, no injury problems last year, and probably faces fewer stacked boxes with Rogers - the Jets are solid all around.

3) Bijan Robinson - ADP 1.08. Last year 17 games, 214 car, 976 yds (4.6 avg), 58 rec, 487 yds, 8 total Tds with two 100-yd rush games. Finished #9 Rb with 14.5 pt/gm. Falcons drafted... qb Penix (wtf) and nothing else offensively.  New head coach, o-coordinator and Qb - Kurt Cousins so offense expected to improve greatly. O-line ranks 15th. Bijan is 22 yo entering softmore season. The former 8th overall NFL pick didn't quite live up to last year's lofty  expectations, which was mostly blamed on coach Smith and bad qb play. Does Bijan get more goal line work over Algeir with new coaches? Probably, but nobody really knows. Still, a young talented Rb on a loaded offense. Cousins made Cook a reception king years back, so receptions should stay solid and possibly increase. Looks to be a good year.

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4) Jonathan Taylor - ADP 1.12. Last year 10 games, 169 car, 741 yds (4.4 avg), 19 rec, 153 yds, 8 total Tds with only one 100-yd rush game (week 18 unfortunately). Finished #33 Rb with 15.6 pt/gm. Colts drafted o-linemen rds 3 & 4 - no major coaching change. O-line ranks 22nd. Taylor is 25 yo with 1,048 carrier touches. Now enters 5th year with a monster contract (clearly Colts believe). Missed early games last year - supposedly ankle, but more likely hold out... then missed time for thumb surgery.  Hard to know how this situation plays out with qb Richardson eating goal-line work, designed runs, and the o-line not so great. Taylor used to be good for 3-4 rec per game, but that didn't pan out last year. Will Richardson dump it off ? Lot of questions here. Feels a bit risky.

5) Jahmyr Gibbs - ADP 2.01. Last year 15 games, 182 car, 945 yds (5.2 avg), 52 rec, 316 yds, 11 total Tds, with two 100-yd rush games. Finished #10 Rb with 16.1 pt/gm. Lions drafted o-lineman 4th rd and some scrub rb - no major coaching or personnel change. O-line ranks 6th. The former 12th overall NFL pick recently turned 22 yo and had a very productive rookie year. David Montgomery is still around who vultured 13 Tds last year... and shockingly had 219 carries and 1,015 yds (4.6 avg). Monty turns 27 soon, but no reason to believe Gibbs gets a considerably bigger piece of pie this year given how efficient the offense ran. Still, Gibbs seems like a relatively safe pick for another top 10 finish with the receptions, solid o-line, and overall potent offense. If Monty goes down, Gibbs becomes a monster.

6) Saquon Barkley - ADP 2.03. Last year 14 games, 247 car, 962 yds (3.9 avg), 41 rec, 280 yds, 10 total Tds, with one 100-yd rush game. Finished #13 Rb with 15.9 pt/gm. O-coordinator fired and replaced by Kellen Moore (fired from Chargers). O-line ranks 3rd in spite of Kelse retiring. Barkley is 27 yo with 1,489 career touches. Once one of the most elusive Rb's in the league - injuries, age, and usage have taken a toll as metrics have declined in recent years. There won't be much Rb competition in Philly, except for - Jaylen Hurts who cannibalizes goal line TDs. Hard to know what to expect from Barkley this year... he can catch, but the Eagles aren't known for that - last year Swift (known for receptions) had ten games with 2 or fewer catches. So, we have an aged Rb with declining metrics, Hurts taking goal lines, and probably not tons of receptions.... ADP 2.03 ???  Wow.

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7) Travis Etienne Jr. - ADP 2.09. Last year 17 games, 267 car, 1,008 yds (3.8 avg), 58 rec, 476 yds, 12 total Tds, with two 100-yd rush games. Finished #3 Rb with 16.6 pt/gm. Jaguars drafted Wr Thomas Jr. with first pick - no major coaching or other personnel changes. O-line ranks 19th. The former 25th overall pick enters his junior season (25 yo) coming off a great '24 campaign. Many worried the '23 drafting of Tank Bigsby (3rd rd) would spell the end of Etienne's goal line work as he struggled with it in '22, but that didn't pan out - mainly because Bigsby kept fumbling at the season's start and coaches seemed to give up on him. Pure volume made Etienne relevant last year... but his 3.8 yd per carry was awful - Out of the top 25 Rbs, only Rachaad White was lower (3.6). Moving forward, hard to see much change unless coaches decide to give Bigsby a second chance, which they might if the inefficient running continues. Etienne doesn't seem to be a "special" Rb with elite skills - he's just-a-guy and another top 3 finish would be shocking. Top 10-ish feels about right as the receptions are the saving grace.

8)) Kyren Williams - ADP 3.04. Last year 12 games, 228 car, 1,144 yds (5.0 avg), 32 rec, 206 yds, 15 total Tds, with six 100-yd rush games. Finished #7 Rb with 21.3 pt/gm. Rams drafted rb Blake Corum in 3rd, no major coaching or other personnel changes. O-line ranks 14th. The former 5th rd pick (23 yo) enters his junior year after an amazing season. Missed four games mid-season due to high-ankle sprain, but immediately picked up where he left off. Has now missed some ota's due to a "foot issue", which doesn't sound like a big deal. So going forward, what to make of Williams? Dude was a stud last year and if he had the back-field to himself and no injury concerns, he'd probably be a top 5 pick. Prior to last year, coach McVay had historically favored multiple backs over a bell-cow usage. Williams solo work last year might be partly explained by the Rams lack of Rb talent and McVay sticking with the hot hand. Enter Blake Corum (3rd Rb taken) who was excellent at Michigan and is described as a "bowling ball Rb", thus might vulture some goal line work. Overall though, Williams' only real knock is the injury concern, which is somewhat accounted for as an early-mid 3rd rounder.

9) Rachaad White - ADP 3.10. Last year 17 games, 272 car, 990 yds (3.6 avg), 64 rec, 549 yds, 9 total Tds, with two 100-yd rush games (just barely... 100 & 102). Finished #4 Rb with 15.8 pt/gm.  Bucs used a 1st rd on O-lineman, and 4th rd on rb (Bucky Irving), o-coordinator left and now replaced by Kentucky's coordinator (known for running). No other personnel changes. O-line ranks 18th. White - former 3rd round pick is 25 yo and enters his junior season after a strange season. Racked up a lot of receptions and was given 272 carries in spite of unspeakably bad efficiency - likely due to lack of rb competition. White only averaged 3.7 ypc in 2022 so his running skills are questionable at best. The Bucs clearly drafted Bucky Irving - an elusive runner, hoping to add a little more efficiency to the running game thus White's carries will almost certainly decline along with the Td total. But the receptions should remain high and is probably good for a top 15-ish finish.

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10) Isiah Pacheco - ADP 4.03. Last year 14 games, 205 car, 935 yds (4.6 avg), 44 rec, 244 yds, 9 total Tds, with three 100-yd rush games. Finished #15 Rb with 15.3 pt/gm. Chiefs drafted wr 1st (Worthy) and o-lineman 2nd. No major coaching changes, but did sign wr Marquise Brown. O-line ranks 3rd. Pacheco is 25 yo and a former 7th round pick entering his junior year. He did miss two games late last year for a shoulder clean-up procedure, but came back strong and scored in 3 out of the 4 Chiefs playoff games. He's the clear lead back coming off a great season, and maintained high efficiency from the year prior (4.9 avg in '22 on 170 carries). Word is the Chiefs likely acquired wr's Brown and Worthy to try to stretch the field a bit with deep shots, which could open up some running room. Interesting stat - games where Pacheco touched the ball fewer than 15 times last year, the Chiefs record was 1-3, in all games the Chiefs won - Pacheco average 20.3 touches. Seems likely the Chiefs will want to continue feeding him the ball. Overall, an early 4th round pick seems like value.

[jrokh 607]

I’d have Josh Jacobs in there somewhere..

[GobbleDog 975]

11 minutes ago, jrokh said:

I’d have Josh Jacobs in there somewhere..

Jacobs is #11 per Fantasypros.  And I agree, I'd prefer him over Rachaad White.

[gcmmidwest 149]

I'd rather have Henry then hall 

[IGotWorms 4,057]

I’d downgrade Taylor, Barkley and White.

Achane should be in the back end.

Don’t sleep on Chubb or Walker 

[weepaws 3,143]

21 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

I’d downgrade Taylor, Barkley and White.

Achane should be in the back end.

Don’t sleep on Chubb or Walker 

When is the Chubb due back? 

[IGotWorms 4,057]

2 minutes ago, weepaws said:

When is the Chubb due back? 

Reports are positive. Obviously bears watching 

[Super Cubs 153]

I think Mixon could easily finish in the bottom of the 10

[GobbleDog 975]

36 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

I’d downgrade Taylor, Barkley and White.

Total agreement. Barkley in particular is a land-mine waiting to get stepped on.

Quote

Achane should be in the back end.

Dolphins crowded backfield worries me about Achane. Yeah, Mostert is 100 years old, but has little tread and scored 18 Tds last year. The Fish drafted an Achane clone in the 4th (Jaylen Wright). I'd expect slightly fewer Achane highlights this year.

Quote

Don’t sleep on Chubb or Walker 

I don't know what to think of Chubb.... when he returns, how they use him, is he still good.?. 

But Walker - now we're talking. Going late 4th round. Seattle's new coach is Ravens former d-coordinator. He's a defense guy, but he's probably gonna carry over some of that run heavy scheme he experienced in Baltimore the last two years.

[weepaws 3,143]

1 hour ago, Super Cubs said:

I think Mixon could easily finish in the bottom of the 10

Agreed.  

[weepaws 3,143]

1 hour ago, IGotWorms said:

Reports are positive. Obviously bears watching 

It sure does, I’m seeing positive reports but still looks like he will probably miss some early reg season games.  

[weepaws 3,143]

Henry isn’t on that list, but even in ppr, Henry will finish in the top ten, I’m thinking top five.  

[makindollaz 51]

Who are your candidates currently outside the top 20 for RB’s, who could jump into the top 10?

Z. White maybe, but concerned about the Raider offense as a whole.  I like Spears, but not sure how close to a 50/50 split with Pollard there will be.  Brown a definite candidate if he takes the starting job in Cincy from Moss.

Maybe a longshot for top 10, but I like Benson if/when Conner gets hurt in Arizona.

[Maximum Overkill 1,732]

Going out on a limb here but if Jonathan Brooks starts the season he'll be in that top ten, possibly ahead of Rashaad White even. 

Don't forget how Canales force fed Rashaad White targets last season. Brooks will have a monster season If he gets close to that volume.

[weepaws 3,143]

4 hours ago, makindollaz said:

Who are your candidates currently outside the top 20 for RB’s, who could jump into the top 10?

Z. White maybe, but concerned about the Raider offense as a whole.  I like Spears, but not sure how close to a 50/50 split with Pollard there will be.  Brown a definite candidate if he takes the starting job in Cincy from Moss.

Maybe a longshot for top 10, but I like Benson if/when Conner gets hurt in Arizona.

I like White, But top ten I can’t see that happening, like you said, the Raiders don’t have the offense to get him into the top ten. 

I think unless Moss gets hurt, it’s going to be an RBBC with him and Brown. 

Benson/Corum are my two biggest rookie targets. 

[weepaws 3,143]

3 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Going out on a limb here but if Jonathan Brooks starts the season he'll be in that top ten, possibly ahead of Rashaad White even. 

Don't forget how Canales force fed Rashaad White targets last season. Brooks will have a monster season If he gets close to that volume.

Not enough for him from the panthers. 

[Maximum Overkill 1,732]

Just now, weepaws said:

Not enough for him from the panthers. 

Did you see what Dave Canales did with Rasheed White in Tampa? Well, he's in Carolina now and wears RBs out. 

Why would it be crazy to expect high volume, especially in the passing game? 

[weepaws 3,143]

Did you see that he has Young at Qb, that you’ve even said isn’t an nfl Qb,  take that into account, I don’t see the overall team output to think Brooks can make into the top ten. White had a 3.7 per rush avg, But was on a much better offense 

[Maximum Overkill 1,732]

Just now, weepaws said:

Did you see that he has Young at Qb, that you’ve even said isn’t an nfl Qb,  take that into account, I don’t see the overall team output to think Brooks can make into the top ten. 

We're talking Fantasy. Canales loves using one RB and feeding him,. especially in the passing attack. Just look at Rasheed's touches from last year. If healthy Brooks could surpass that easily. 

[weepaws 3,143]

1 hour ago, Maximum Overkill said:

We're talking Fantasy. Canales loves using one RB and feeding him,. especially in the passing attack. Just look at Rasheed's touches from last year. If healthy Brooks could surpass that easily. 

I’m glad you agree talking ff, in ff Brooks won’t make it into the top ten.  Feeding him the ball will be great move for what could be a horrible team, with a very questionable Qb at the helm.  I saw what they did with White in Tampa l even own him, but that Tampa team was a much better team.  White was the only decent rb on the Tampa team last season, Panthers still roster Hubbard, And Sanders, Neither are the quality of player Brooks is, But they will get a share of the work load.   Reminds me of Robinson and Allgeir last season with the Falcons, everyone said Robinson would dominate, but Allgeir received a good amount of work load. 

Thanks 

[Ray_T 738]

3 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I’m glad you agree talking ff, in ff Brooks won’t make it into the top ten.  Feeding him the ball will be great move for what could be a horrible team, with a very questionable Qb at the helm.  I saw what they did with White in Tampa l even own him, but that Tampa team was a much better team.  White was the only decent rb on the Tampa team last season, Panthers still roster Hubbard, And Sanders, Neither are the quality of player Brooks is, But they will get a share of the work load.   Reminds me of Robinson and Allgeir last season with the Falcons, everyone said Robinson would dominate, but Allgeir received a good amount of work load. 

Thanks 

yeah, and white was a pass catching RB so when the game script went poorly he still got fed..

that helped.

generally when the game script goes upside down because the team is bad,  the run game gets abandoned in the second half. (at least if the game isnt all that close)  so RB's on bad teams tend to underperform when compared to their actual talent as a player.

pass catching RB's can do a little better when the game script flips like that but it also depends how much the team/qb like to throw the ball to their RB too.   In Tampa, white got fed a lot in the pass game.   honestly a lot more than I was expecting.   His run stats are actually quite mediocre.    3.6 yards per carry.    but 64 catches at an average of 8.6 yards per catch is pretty sweet.   and for a 2nd year player, thats pretty good.  usually takes a RB a while to get the reads and the routes down pat.   I figured hed build on his rookie year (which was ok) but he did more than that.

as for Brooks, he tore his ACL late last year, so the odds of him being a top 10 RB this season is pretty slim.   Breakout for him is likely next year.   but hes a nice dynasty add now if you are willing to wait a year.   I could see them using him as a scat back to start, but the running will mostly stay with Chubba.   Chubba doesnt excite me as a player, but I think he takes the first and second down role in this offense.

 

[GobbleDog 975]

17 hours ago, Super Cubs said:

I think Mixon could easily finish in the bottom of the 10

Mixon is about to turn 28 yo with 1,854 career touches. Last year's metrics didn't look great with regard to juke rate, breakaway rate, true yac etc. Shockingly hasn't eclipsed 4.1 ypc since...  2018.

In spite of all that, the Texans gave Mixon an insane 3-year $27 mil deal with $13 mill guaranteed.?. I can't explain it. There isn't much competition as Pierce hasn't worked out, so they'll probably feed Mixon all he can handle to justify the contract - I just don't think he can handle it to the tune of top 10.  Ya might think receptions will get him there, but the Texans mostly play the long ball. Last year's top receiving Rb - Singletary with 30 rec.  Pierce had 13.

Mixon has been fairly durable throughout his career, but that was before he was 28 with so much millage. Singletary didn't miss a game last year, ended with 216 carries (4.2 avg), 30 rec, 4 total Tds.... finished RB 32.  Perhaps Mixon gets a few extra Tds, a few more carries/receptions, and stays healthy all year.  Perhaps... but I wouldn't bank on it.

[weepaws 3,143]

39 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Mixon is about to turn 28 yo with 1,854 career touches. Last year's metrics didn't look great with regard to juke rate, breakaway rate, true yac etc. Shockingly hasn't eclipsed 4.1 ypc since...  2018.

In spite of all that, the Texans gave Mixon an insane 3-year $27 mil deal with $13 mill guaranteed.?. I can't explain it. There isn't much competition as Pierce hasn't worked out, so they'll probably feed Mixon all he can handle to justify the contract - I just don't think he can handle it to the tune of top 10.  Ya might think receptions will get him there, but the Texans mostly play the long ball. Last year's top receiving Rb - Singletary with 30 rec.  Pierce had 13.

Mixon has been fairly durable throughout his career, but that was before he was 28 with so much millage. Singletary didn't miss a game last year, ended with 216 carries (4.2 avg), 30 rec, 4 total Tds.... finished RB 32.  Perhaps Mixon gets a few extra Tds, a few more carries/receptions, and stays healthy all year.  Perhaps... but I wouldn't bank on it.

He has a very good shot with the Texans being a top ten rb,has a good ADP.  I’ll buy. 

[Maximum Overkill 1,732]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

as for Brooks, he tore his ACL late last year, so the odds of him being a top 10 RB this season is pretty slim

Which is why I said "I'm going out on a limb". 

[GobbleDog 975]

2 hours ago, weepaws said:

Brooks won’t make it into the top ten. 

That's a given. Top 20 is a stretch.  When the Panthers drafted Brooks I was intrigued. First Rb taken in the NFL draft with great stats at Texas.

People wondered if the Panthers were going to cut Sanders and eat that monster contract after June 1st, but that hasn't happened yet. Chubba Hubbard is still on the team doing what Chubba does - not much while stealing carries. The Panthers recently signed Rashaad Penny on the cheap, who played for coach Dave Canales in Seattle.  There's Book's late acl tear to worry about.  To top it all off... the offense just finished dead last. 

Brooks is currently ranked rb 36 going about rounds 10 or 11, so it's not much risk (though hype train probably takes off leading up to draft).  Overall...  I'm not as intrigued as I was.

[Ray_T 738]

21 minutes ago, weepaws said:

He has a very good shot with the Texans being a top ten rb,has a good ADP.  I’ll buy. 

yeah,  playing on a better team will usually improve the stats.   

[weepaws 3,143]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

That's a given. Top 20 is a stretch.  When the Panthers drafted Brooks I was intrigued. First Rb taken in the NFL draft with great stats at Texas.

People wondered if the Panthers were going to cut Sanders and eat that monster contract after June 1st, but that hasn't happened yet. Chubba Hubbard is still on the team doing what Chubba does - not much while stealing carries. The Panthers recently signed Rashaad Penny on the cheap, who played for coach Dave Canales in Seattle.  There's Book's late acl tear to worry about.  To top it all off... the offense just finished dead last. 

Brooks is currently ranked rb 36 going about rounds 10 or 11, so it's not much risk (though hype train probably takes off leading up to draft).  Overall...  I'm not as intrigued as I was.

I’m in two 14 team redraft leagues, ones non ppr, ones a full ppr, In am passing on Mr Brooks .  In a keeper/dynasty league I would be taking him. 

[GobbleDog 975]

9 hours ago, makindollaz said:

Who are your candidates currently outside the top 20 for RB’s, who could jump into the top 10?

22) R Stevenson - reception monster two years ago. New coordinator from Browns with run-first motto... what else can they do?

23) Z White - got starter reps late last year and looked good with some explosive runs. No goal line competition. Improved o-line. Coach likes work-horse backs.

24) R Mostert - being Dolphins goal line back resulted in 18 Tds last year.

30) Z Moss - takes over Mixon's roll who I think is washed and still had big fantasy points with pure volume. I don't believe in Chase Brown.

31) D Singletary - not a flashy pick, but not much competition. Giants are going to want some return on that $9.5 mil guaranteed contract.

33) J Warren - I love receptions and efficient running. I wish Najee Harris would go away. Perhaps this is the year.

[weepaws 3,143]

Very late rb I like, is A Gibson, he can catch, he’s a very late rd bench rb I wouldn’t mine owning.  

[Maximum Overkill 1,732]

8 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

22) R Stevenson - reception monster two years ago. New coordinator from Browns with run-first motto... what else can they do?

That would bode well for Rhamondre considering they brought in Gibson who's mainly involved in the passing game. 

[GobbleDog 975]

9 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

That would bode well for Rhamondre considering they brought in Gibson who's mainly involved in the passing game. 

Gibson will probably lead rb's in receptions, but isn't stealing significant carries or goal line work.

[Maximum Overkill 1,732]

50 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Gibson will probably lead rb's in receptions, but isn't stealing significant carries or goal line work.

Agree  

[defectivesupport 8]

I think there are a few later rounders that could break the top 10 that others haven't mentioned:

1)  Aaron jones: Pros - Rookie QB (or darnold) will both most likely check down a bunch. Cons -  will probably be in committee and has to stay healthy. 

2) Zeke - Its a strange situation of a player in decline...thats still the lead on a team that will be ahead.  He should also keep most of the goal line tries. I would say low end of the top 10 is ceiling here, but wouldn't be all that surprising.

 

Everything has to go right pick:

3) Jaleel McLaughlin - javonte hasnt proven he should keep the starting job, and if jaleel starts out in committee and gets hot, payton has done well for plenty of RB in the past.

[weepaws 3,143]

Chandler will make things difficult for A Jones owners, plus Vikings will have a very rough season. 

No way will Zeke ever see top ten again. 

To many issues on the Broncos, plus a RBBC to see a top ten rb.  

 

[weepaws 3,143]

Besides Henry, I’ll go with D Montgomery, who owns a great ADP.  

[weepaws 3,143]

With a lot of uncertainty at the wr slot, plus no rb behind him to challenge for any big workload, I’m picking J Cook. 

 

[Maximum Overkill 1,732]

5 hours ago, defectivesupport said:

 

Everything has to go right pick:

3) Jaleel McLaughlin - javonte hasnt proven he should keep the starting job, and if jaleel starts out in committee and gets hot, payton has done well for plenty 

Don't forget Estime. Payton loves the Kid. 

[Ray_T 738]

New York Jets Release Concerning Injury Update On Superstar RB Breece Hall (msn.com)

since hes ranked top 10, I figured I should post this link which just popped up on my feed

[IGotWorms 4,057]

7 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

New York Jets Release Concerning Injury Update On Superstar RB Breece Hall (msn.com)

since hes ranked top 10, I figured I should post this link which just popped up on my feed

Looks like clickbait 

[Ray_T 738]

3 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

Looks like clickbait 

well, it looks like they could have shortened that up by 75% and the article would be just as useful.

important takeaway is he has a lower body injury at the moment.

given he came back from an ACL injury, not entirely surprising.   you are usually a bit more prone to the soft tissue injuries once you have your ACL reconstructed.