2024 Top 10 Rbs - let's discuss

[weepaws 3,062]

I value my rb3/wr3 as starters, I’m not sure that one couldn’t do better than Ja Williams as a rb3.   

[GobbleDog 919]

On 6/5/2024 at 12:44 AM, defectivesupport said:

Zeke - Its a strange situation of a player in decline...thats still the lead on a team that will be ahead.  He should also keep most of the goal line tries. I would say low end of the top 10 is ceiling here, but wouldn't be all that surprising.

The two most shocking things from the NFL draft - Falcons selecting Penix with the 8th pick, and Cowboys not drafting a Rb.

Cowboys depth: Zeke, Dowdle, Vaughn, Freeman (yeah, Royce)  Why didn't they sign Moss or Mixon, or make a trade, or draft a warm body?  What the hell is Jerry Jones thinking?  "Screw the running game -  just throw it baby!"

I've played with the numbers... Zeke gets xxx carries, xxx rec, xxx Tds. I can't figure a way to make it realistic and worthwhile. FF Mike's projection seems optimistic 186 car, 35 rec, 7 total Tds... though who can argue looking at that depth chart. Even then he'd still finish out of the top 25 - and that assumes he stays healthy. Seems what we'd really get with Zeke is a few spike weeks while he's on the bench. I give up. I'd rather draft some lotto ticket than a piece of the Cowboys backfield.

[weepaws 3,062]

Dowdle has a great ADP, he’s been a rb I’ve drafted in some 14 team non ppr mocks.  But Zeke will get the tds 

[Ray_T 725]

26 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

The two most shocking things from the NFL draft - Falcons selecting Penix with the 8th pick, and Cowboys not drafting a Rb.

Cowboys depth: Zeke, Dowdle, Vaughn, Freeman (yeah, Royce)  Why didn't they sign Moss or Mixon, or make a trade, or draft a warm body?  What the hell is Jerry Jones thinking?  "Screw the running game -  just throw it baby!"

I've played with the numbers... Zeke gets xxx carries, xxx rec, xxx Tds. I can't figure a way to make it realistic and worthwhile. FF Mike's projection seems optimistic 186 car, 35 rec, 7 total Tds... though who can argue looking at that depth chart. Even then he'd still finish out of the top 25 - and that assumes he stays healthy. Seems what we'd really get with Zeke is a few spike weeks while he's on the bench. I give up. I'd rather draft some lotto ticket than a piece of the Cowboys backfield.

well, I think he gets more TD than 7.   hes a red zone beast.

its the other stats I'd need to look at critically.   and honestly I have not done a lot of work on him.   I will at some point but hes not on my hot list haha

[Maximum Overkill 1,580]

29 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

  "Screw the running game -  just throw it baby!"

They better pay CeeDee first, because that's all they got. 

[GobbleDog 919]

15 hours ago, Ray_T said:

well, I think he gets more TD than 7.   hes a red zone beast.

Pollard only scored 6 Tds, with 252 carries and 55 rec.  Yet Dallas was the highest scoring team last year. 

 

[Ray_T 725]

2 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Pollard only scored 6 Tds, with 252 carries and 55 rec.  Yet Dallas was the highest scoring team last year. 

 

all that shows is Pollard isnt a great red zone RB.

Zeke when he played in dallas scored plenty of TD.    2 years ago when he was there he got 12 TD.    I'm not sure you'll be thrilled about the yardage, but the TD should be fine.   if you can get him for an RB3 price I'd suggest there is good value there.

I dont know what his ADP is but thats probably in the ballpark of what I am expecting

[TBayXXXVII 2,420]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

all that shows is Pollard isnt a great red zone RB.

Zeke when he played in dallas scored plenty of TD.    2 years ago when he was there he got 12 TD.    I'm not sure you'll be thrilled about the yardage, but the TD should be fine.   if you can get him for an RB3 price I'd suggest there is good value there.

I dont know what his ADP is but thats probably in the ballpark of what I am expecting

The problem with Tony Pollard wasn't Tony Pollard, it was a faction of the fantasy football world thinking that Tony Pollard was better than what he was.  Pollard was an elite RB2 (on his team), that as the offshoot to Elliott, could be a really good fantasy RB.  As a lead back in the NFL, however, he was not the same player.  He needed to be the second fiddle to be the best fantasy producer that he could be.

In 2022, he had 248.8 (8th overall), fantasy points and in 16 games, averaged 15.6 per game (9th overall).  Last year, he totaled 222.6 (14th overall), points on 75 more touches.  He was an RB1 when he was a backup, but an RB2 as a starter.  If you go back to the links I showed where Tampa was 31st in Run Block Win Rate, the Cowboys were 7th, in 2022.  Last year they were 4th, so with a better line and as a lead back, Pollard wasn't as good.  He's best playing second fiddle.

[weepaws 3,062]

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

The problem with Tony Pollard wasn't Tony Pollard, it was a faction of the fantasy football world thinking that Tony Pollard was better than what he was.  Pollard was an elite RB2 (on his team), that as the offshoot to Elliott, could be a really good fantasy RB.  As a lead back in the NFL, however, he was not the same player.  He needed to be the second fiddle to be the best fantasy producer that he could be.

In 2022, he had 248.8 (8th overall), fantasy points and in 16 games, averaged 15.6 per game (9th overall).  Last year, he totaled 222.6 (14th overall), points on 75 more touches.  He was an RB1 when he was a backup, but an RB2 as a starter.  If you go back to the links I showed where Tampa was 31st in Run Block Win Rate, the Cowboys were 7th, in 2022.  Last year they were 4th, so with a better line and as a lead back, Pollard wasn't as good.  He's best playing second fiddle.

Cowboys had the same problem. 

[weepaws 3,062]

2 hours ago, Ray_T said:

all that shows is Pollard isnt a great red zone RB.

Zeke when he played in dallas scored plenty of TD.    2 years ago when he was there he got 12 TD.    I'm not sure you'll be thrilled about the yardage, but the TD should be fine.   if you can get him for an RB3 price I'd suggest there is good value there.

I dont know what his ADP is but thats probably in the ballpark of what I am expecting

Rb4 is his current ADP.   Three of his last four seasons with the Cowboys, he stumbled into the end zone 10 plus times.  That’s a darn good rb4, with slot rb3 value, plus he’s can catch.  

[GobbleDog 919]

Looking through PlayerProfiler.com of Rb metrics last year. Key categories where most top fantasy Rbs finishers were consistently high (aside from pure volume stats) ... Fantasy Pts per Opportunity, True yac (discounts 10+ yd runs for more accurate measure), Yds per Touch, Juke Rate (elusiveness/evaded tackles), Yds created per Touch (yds beyond what was blocked or juked), Production premium (situational comparison of carries/targets play outcome to league average).

Players like McCaff, Hall, Bijan, etc. ranked in top 15 in nearly all those, but some I didn't expect...

Jaylen Warren  ... fant pts per opp 0.88,  true yac #6, yd per touch #7, juke rate #1, yds created per touch #3, prod prem #7. That's incredible.

Tyjae Spears   ... fant pts per opp 0.9, true yac #26, yd per touch #6, juke rate #4, yds created per touch #5, prod prem #10.

Raheem Mostert... fant pts per opp 1.11, true yac #11, yd per touch #17, juke rate #7, yds created per touch #21, prod prem #8.

Honorable mention to James Connor and Brian Robinson, who weren't quite as good, but better than expected.

Biggest disappointments... Etienne and R. White - volume goes a long way in fantasy football. Food for thought.

[weepaws 3,062]

I just read that Bigsby has been horrible in camp, no true rb to challenge Etienne, I’ll take the volume, Same with R White.  

Steelers with a new OC is a tough one, I’ve heard that Harris is in great shape, RBBC all season , same with Pollard  and Spears.

Be tough to see Mostert matching his td total from last season,but he’s a target of mine in my 14 team non ppr, adp rb 31 rd # 8 , great late value.  

I think Spears is the better player between him and Pollard, But the Titans throw some really good money at Pollard. 

Warren/ Harris about similar ADP, RBBC all season, I’ll pass, unless I really need one of them late.  

Thanks. 

[GobbleDog 919]

14 hours ago, weepaws said:

I just read that Bigsby has been horrible in camp, no true rb to challenge Etienne, I’ll take the volume, Same with R White.

I wasn't implying anyone should or shouldn't draft them. Just interesting metrics. Etienne doesn't have elite talent, but at least he showed he could handle the work. Some Rbs aren't built for workhorse duty (Jerome Ford ). 5'8" Jaylen Warren might not be suited for it. Interestingly, Najee Harris is 6'1" and with Arthur Smith in town, it looks like a maddening time share with Harris getting goal line and Warren receptions. Probably the same for Pollard and Spears.  I wouldn't want to rely them, but decent for occasional spot starts. At least with Warren and Spears, the receptions and relief carries should help them be more consistent. Harris and Pollard will probably have a few more dud games where they don't score and only get 50+- rushing yds.

I do expect White's carries to decline, with the Bucs drafting Bucky Irving in the 4th. Seemed like a clear message they weren't happy with White's inefficiency the past two years.

[weepaws 3,062]

I was just sharing my thoughts.   I do think B Irving  will cut into White volume some.  

[kcBlitzkrieg 29]

Mostert at 31 years of age.

2nd oldest RB ever to score over 20 TDs.  

1st oldest?  Riggins 1983 at 34 years of age. 

Riggins 1984 = only 14 TDs.  

Mostert 2024 =  ??  

 

[kilroy69 1,171]

1 hour ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

Mostert at 31 years of age.

2nd oldest RB ever to score over 20 TDs.  

1st oldest?  Riggins 1983 at 34 years of age. 

Riggins 1984 = only 14 TDs.  

Mostert 2024 =  ??  

 

I would say half that. Not because of age though. No chance he would have hit 20tds had Achane played all year. Plus the phins were not sure what they had in Achane last year. This year they know what he can do. I would guess it is more of a time share with Achane having 14-15  and mostert having 10. 

[GobbleDog 919]

2 hours ago, kilroy69 said:

I would guess it is more of a time share with Achane having 14-15  and mostert having 10. 

If your the Dolphins coach and get to the goal line, who's number you calling?  188 lb Achane who's shown to be somewhat brittle or 205 lb Mostert who's proven to be effective around the goal line?

Achane will score from distance, and get a few with receptions, but probably not much goal line work. "14 to 15 Tds"? I'd be surprised. He blew up Week 3, but after that he played eight full games (not counting his 1 carry game) and a playoff game... had 4 total Tds. Nearly a half a Td per game is decent, but still won't get him to 14. I think it's way more of a time-share than Achane drafters would like to believe.

[weepaws 3,062]

Not so sure many Rbs have scored 18 rushing tds, plus 3 rec tds, I think Mostert hits double figures again, but not more than 12 total tds.  

[kilroy69 1,171]

49ers HC Kyle Shanahan said, “We have to protect Christian McCaffrey from himself,” when asked about the possibility of reducing McCaffrey’s workload in 2024.

Shanahan added that the team has “guys that can run the ball” and noted that while McCaffery has proven capable of handling 20-plus carries a game, at some point, the team would “like to take some of that off of him and give [the ball] to other guys also. McCaffery signed a two-year extension with the 49ers in early June after rushing for 272-1459-14 while adding another 67-564-7 through the air. The 28-year-old running back played in 10 of a possible 33 games from 2020-2021 but has played in all but one regular season contest over the last two years. A potential decline in touches for a back who led the league with 339 touches in 2023 is concerning for fantasy managers, but McCaffrey’s efficiency and pass-catching upside will always keep his ceiling high. We’d also expect him to remain the preferred back near the goal line and high-value areas of the field. Fantasy managers should still feel comfortable taking him at the top of drafts this season.

[weepaws 3,062]

Glad we have that out of the way.  

[kilroy69 1,171]

On 6/29/2024 at 4:33 PM, weepaws said:

Glad we have that out of the way.  

I am making a claim that Henry is going to be the offensive player of the year and the current offensive player of the years coach is saying they are going to scale back his work to less than the 20 touches he gets a game. If McCaffery has his touches paired back it bodes well for Henrys chances 

[DocNiner 58]

I'm not banking on it but a player I think could have a shot at cracking the top 20 this year is Chicago Bears RB Deandre Swift. Yes he's had a little injury history but the dude has still produced. Since the have a rookie QB in Caleb Williams and 3 WRs that are decent and a serviceable TE in Cole Kmet are.they really gonna let this rookie sling the ball all over the field? I.think that would be a recipe for disaster for the young QB no matter how talented he us. Trevor Lawrence was suppose to be the 2nd coming of Peyton Manning but has really lit up the stats sheets. Enter Deandre Swift. If they want Williams to be successful they should try to give him a run game that'll produce and take some pressure of him. I think that Seift has the talent to be a top 10 RB and just needs the opportunities to do so. Yes, it'll depend a lot on him being on the field and not the bench plus how much they want to inject Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson. I say Swift is certainly better than those two.and the Bears need to realize that. If they want to win with this rookie QB then give Swift enough touches to help the passing game. So he may be a Longshot but I still think Swift could end up being a top 10 RB this year if the Bears use him the right way.

[kilroy69 1,171]

31 minutes ago, DocNiner said:

 Yes he's had a little injury history 

Hahaha. as a lions fan I can attest to the fact that is an understatement. Bo Jackson would have been a surefire hall of famer had he not got injured. Swift could be a really good RB if he could ever stay healthy. It would be night out if not for the sun. 

[weepaws 3,062]

In ppr Swift was 19th in points last season.  21st the season before, and 15th In 2021.  Top 20 isn’t news for Swift.  

But they have three Rbs , it’s going to be a RBBC.  Tough situation for Swift owners imo. 

[WhiteWonder 2,566]

Henry not on this list is criminal. He has to start wearing down at some point but his landing spot was absolutely ideal. 

I tend to think Barkley will be very good this season. Just to spite Giants fans.

No issue with Jacobs not on this list. He was not the same back last year. Being very cautious with him and assuming someone else will end up with him at his ADP.

Joe Mixon hasn't really looked the same but I would probably buy him in that offense for this season at least.

[weepaws 3,062]

Jacobs should be, And will probably at the season end be in the top ten, he’s one of the best Rbs in the nfl.  

No one could have been surprised by his performance last season. In 2022 he had 393 touches.  

He still was avg 14:1 points per game which was the 13 best avg per game in ppr.  

I like is landing spot , and a return to the top ten wouldn’t be a surprise.  

[IGotWorms 4,053]

5 hours ago, weepaws said:

Jacobs should be, And will probably in the season in the top ten, he’s one of the best Rbs in the nfl.  

No one could have been surprised by his performance last season. In 2022 he had 393 touches.  

He still was avg 14:1 points per game which was the 13 best avg per game in ppr.  

I like is landing spot , and a return to the top ten wouldn’t be a surprise.  

Jacobs was really bad last year. The fact that he scored anything was based on volume alone.

Now he is only 26 so I do understand the case for a bounce back year. Especially going to a better offense. But I think he’s cooked and will be staying away.

 

Interesting tidbit: did you know he has never scored a receiving touchdown in the NFL?

[weepaws 3,062]

That’s interesting, he’s going get his first, darn good three down rb.  Better team, he’s going to have a very good season. Jacobs is a target of mine. 

[Maximum Overkill 1,580]

8 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

Jacobs was really bad last year. The fact that he scored anything was based on volume alone.

Now he is only 26 so I do understand the case for a bounce back year. Especially going to a better offense. But I think he’s cooked and will be staying away.

 

Nailed it. I feel like GB has buyers remorse on that one. It won't be long before Lloyd owns that job via injury or Jacobs struggling. 

[weepaws 3,062]

Really like Jacobs current adp.  I hope it stays that why  when I draft. 

[Maximum Overkill 1,580]

And Trey Benson is a league winner WHEN James Conner gets hurt. 

 

 

[WhiteWonder 2,566]

On 6/20/2024 at 4:16 PM, GobbleDog said:

The two most shocking things from the NFL draft - Falcons selecting Penix with the 8th pick, and Cowboys not drafting a Rb.

Cowboys depth: Zeke, Dowdle, Vaughn, Freeman (yeah, Royce)  Why didn't they sign Moss or Mixon, or make a trade, or draft a warm body?  What the hell is Jerry Jones thinking?  "Screw the running game -  just throw it baby!"

I've played with the numbers... Zeke gets xxx carries, xxx rec, xxx Tds. I can't figure a way to make it realistic and worthwhile. FF Mike's projection seems optimistic 186 car, 35 rec, 7 total Tds... though who can argue looking at that depth chart. Even then he'd still finish out of the top 25 - and that assumes he stays healthy. Seems what we'd really get with Zeke is a few spike weeks while he's on the bench. I give up. I'd rather draft some lotto ticket than a piece of the Cowboys backfield.

I think there is a little bit of sleeping on Rico

[weepaws 3,062]

Dowdle has a great ADP, he’s free.  He’s a very good end of the bench rb to own.  

[GobbleDog 919]

On 7/2/2024 at 2:53 AM, Maximum Overkill said:

Nailed it. I feel like GB has buyers remorse on that one. It won't be long before Lloyd owns that job via injury or Jacobs struggling. 

It’d be interesting to see analysis of Rb’s with 550+ carries over two years and how they fair the next season. My guess is not great and probably miss games. Jacobs has only played five years and already amassed over 1,500 touches. Lloyd was likely drafted as insurance and to compete with Dillon (who’s been ineffective) as #2. 

I’m not loving the adp’s or situations of any Packers back.

[Maximum Overkill 1,580]

3 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Lloyd was likely drafted as insurance and to compete with Dillon (who’s been ineffective) as #2. 

I'm shocked that they brought Dillon back. He's less than useless. 

[GobbleDog 919]

16 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

I’m shocked that they brought Dillon back. He's less than useless. 

You, me and everyone in the biz. Weird.

[Maximum Overkill 1,580]

1 minute ago, GobbleDog said:

You, me and everyone in the biz. Weird.

Haha. Is there a slower RB on the planet?  

[weepaws 3,062]

Packers rb2 won’t be playing much, so it doesn’t matter.  Jacobs is going to be a three down rb, with very good ff results.  

[Maximum Overkill 1,580]

2 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Packers rb2 won’t be playing much, so it doesn’t matter.  Jacobs is going to be a three down rb, with very good ff results.  

No thanks. There's at least 10 running backs with a better ADP that I'd take after Jacobs. 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/rb.php

[GobbleDog 919]

7 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Jacobs is going to be a three down rb, with very good ff results.  

Packers did make him the 4th highest paid Rb so they’ll want some return on that. We’ll see how much he can take and if last years’s decline was an aberration due to Vegas being so bad, or a sign of a cooked Rb.