2024 Projections & Rankings

[Mike FF Today 718]

Got my first run of projections and rankings  posted. Feel free to ridicule, but remember it's early June! I'll be adding ADP over the weekend.

[weepaws 3,143]

Jefferson in the top 3 , mmm with Addison and a lack of a Qb,I’m not so sure he’s top five.  

[GobbleDog 975]

Rachaad White "246 carries"... I'd be surprised. If we could bet over/under on that, I think even Mike would take the under. Unless his ypc amazingly increases, the Bucs would be insane to keep pouring water down that bottomless well.

James Cook is interesting... (2nd rd out of Georgia). Softmore season: 4.7 ypc on 237 carries with 6 runs of 20+ yds. Added 44 receptions and averaged 10.1 ypr - highest of any RB with 40+ receptions. Mr. efficiency and durable. Only knock is the Bills had 22 rushing Tds last year.... Cook got 2. Allen ate 15 with the rest going to backup Rbs Murray (4) and Harris (1). Huge personnel shift with both top Wrs out, along with Rbs Murray and Harris. Bills drafted Rb Davis who seems suited for goal line work. Allen gets his share at the goal line, Davis gets some.... Cook gets crumbs again (still surely higher than the paltry 2 from last year). Allen has never thrown much to Rbs - last year's 44 is the highest any Rb has ever gotten with Allen. But considering how efficient he was with it, he'll likely replicate it and possibly increase especially with the new Wrs. Overall, Cook seems very safe. 230+ carries, 45+ receptions, big yardage, durability... only question is Tds. He finished Rb 12 last year in ppr, yet he's currently ranked Rb 15 per Fantasypros. Mike ranks him Rb 7. I have to agree.

[Maximum Overkill 1,730]

I think Burrow falls of a cliff, out of the Top 10 for sure. 

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,480]

2 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Rachaad White "246 carries"... I'd be surprised. If we could bet over/under on that, I think even Mike would take the under. Unless his ypc amazingly increases, the Bucs would be insane to keep pouring water down that bottomless well.

Not saying White is a great runner, but he's a lot better than what people give him credit for.  Tampa's iOL was complete trash last year.  On runs designed up the middle, White averaged less than 1 yd before contact.  Meaning, so matter how great of vision you have, you're not getting many yards.  IF the Bucs are right about their OLine additions as well as their belief that Cody Mauch will have a big step forward, I think 4+ ypc isn't just reasonable, it should be expected.   I also think he gets more carries than the 272 he had last year... that's at least until I see Irving play.  

Understand, I think Baker Mayfield is trash and the Bucs offense won't be effective because he won't be.  That said, if by some miracle, he's a decent QB and the Bucs are able to move the ball and score more often than last year... that means the OLine is a lot better and the net result will be more production from White.  Yes, I'm saying that White isn't the problem with that offense, it's the iOL and Mayfield.  If White is the same player as last year with others around him improving, I'd expect about 70 receptions, 1700 total yards and 12 TD's.  Note, that's not a huge increase, that's only 6 more receptions, 160 more total yards, and 3 more TD's.

Summation...  if you fade White because HE's the problem, you're making a mistake.  If you're fading him because you think Mayfield and the iOL still stinks, then I'd agree with you and wouldn't blame you.

[weepaws 3,143]

J Jacobs at #16, he looks like a steal in mocks , I hope I can get him cheap come August. 

[GobbleDog 975]

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Not saying White is a great runner, but he's a lot better than what people give him credit for.  Tampa's iOL was complete trash last year.

Was that also the problem in '22 when White averaged 3.7 ypc - Not his fault, back-to-back years with a crappy o-line.?.  At least Tampa did spend a 1st rd pick on an o-lineman and signed three more in free-agency, so we'll have to wait and see if that fixes the problem. Unfortunately, my draft occurs prior to regular season so I'm gonna have to make an educated guess.... and I'm guessing the 3rd rd pick out of Arizona St who's career ypc is 3.7 ...  stinks.

"I'd expect about 70 receptions, 1700 total yards and 12 TD's."  - you are the ultimate optimist, sir. God bless you.

[wolves111 104]

5 hours ago, weepaws said:

Jefferson in the top 3 , mmm with Addison and a lack of a Qb,I’m not so sure he’s top five.  

Lamb, Hill, St Brown, Chase, Nacua.

 

[weepaws 3,143]

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Not saying White is a great runner, but he's a lot better than what people give him credit for.  Tampa's iOL was complete trash last year.  On runs designed up the middle, White averaged less than 1 yd before contact.  Meaning, so matter how great of vision you have, you're not getting many yards.  IF the Bucs are right about their OLine additions as well as their belief that Cody Mauch will have a big step forward, I think 4+ ypc isn't just reasonable, it should be expected.   I also think he gets more carries than the 272 he had last year... that's at least until I see Irving play.  

Understand, I think Baker Mayfield is trash and the Bucs offense won't be effective because he won't be.  That said, if by some miracle, he's a decent QB and the Bucs are able to move the ball and score more often than last year... that means the OLine is a lot better and the net result will be more production from White.  Yes, I'm saying that White isn't the problem with that offense, it's the iOL and Mayfield.  If White is the same player as last year with others around him improving, I'd expect about 70 receptions, 1700 total yards and 12 TD's.  Note, that's not a huge increase, that's only 6 more receptions, 160 more total yards, and 3 more TD's.

Summation...  if you fade White because HE's the problem, you're making a mistake.  If you're fading him because you think Mayfield and the iOL still stinks, then I'd agree with you and wouldn't blame you.

You think Irving bites into his work load much? 

[weepaws 3,143]

I think G Pickens is right now going for a very good value, the Steelers don’t even roster a wr2 at this time.  

And I keep targeting  Kupp, he has a very good ADP, I see a much better return this season from Kupp.  

 

[GobbleDog 975]

6 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I think G Pickens is right now going for a very good value, the Steelers don’t even roster a wr2 at this time.  

And I keep targeting  Kupp, he has a very good ADP, I see a much better return this season from Kupp. 

I feel like I have good bead on several Rbs, but not so much on the Wr position. Changing Qbs and situations makes it difficult.

Pickens initially jumped off the page at me at a great Wr target. I never believed in Diontae Johnson last year... and I was right - he's a bum. But Pickens - dude finished with 22 receptions of 20+ yds!  Incredible - a stat only the elite Wrs had last year. More amazing considering the garbage qb play. But now enter Wilson. He does love the deep go routes... but stinks at most everything else. And Fields might start/take over at some point. Hard to figure, but I'm leaning towards liking Pickens at his adp.

Don't know what to make of Kupp... 31 yo, considering Puka took over the top spot... still got some soul searching to do on this one. I'm leaning toward thinking Kupp is value, but I'm quite not there yet.

[makindollaz 51]

No major heartburn with the PPR top 30.

I like McBride but feel like he’s a little high at 34, or a 3rd rounder in 12 team.  Feel like Pacheco is a little low at 39…I’d put him more in the 25-30 range.

Also a fan of Pickens, and feel like he could end up being a low WR1/high WR2.

[weepaws 3,143]

Like the comments the OP made about J Reed of the Packers, I like his ADP.  But it’s a crowded situation, if Watson can take care of His hammy, I read that Watson has been seeing a specialist about that issue, but Reed is another wr target of mine based on adp. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,480]

3 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Was that also the problem in '22 when White averaged 3.7 ypc - Not his fault, back-to-back years with a crappy o-line.?.  At least Tampa did spend a 1st rd pick on an o-lineman and signed three more in free-agency, so we'll have to wait and see if that fixes the problem. Unfortunately, my draft occurs prior to regular season so I'm gonna have to make an educated guess.... and I'm guessing the 3rd rd pick out of Arizona St who's career ypc is 3.7 ...  stinks.

"I'd expect about 70 receptions, 1700 total yards and 12 TD's."  - you are the ultimate optimist, sir. God bless you.

To answer your question... yes, their OLine was crappy the last 2 years.  In 2022, they ranked 31st in Run Blocking Win Rate, and 32nd last year.

Chase Edmonds - 4.5 ypc (career pre-2023).  Last year in Tampa, 3.6. 

 

You do realize that those numbers aren't really all that much higher than last year, right?  Also, I said that's if you think the OL is better and that Mayfield doesn't stink.

 

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,480]

2 hours ago, weepaws said:

You think Irving bites into his work load much? 

Not sure yet.  Not enough information on him as of right now.

[Mike FF Today 718]

18 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Not sure yet.  Not enough information on him as of right now.

Yep. This makes projecting White tough right now. Should have a better feel on this situation when we get into camp.

[Gepetto 1,282]

I already saw these a couple of days ago. I must have just got lucky and went looking for it the same day you put these on your site. Looks good. Always appreciate the quality work you do with these and everything here!

[weepaws 3,143]

Jeudy at #51 I think is to low, he has a great current ADP.  He could turn out to be a real steal as a wr5.  

[weepaws 3,143]

M Williams Jets, And C Samuel Bills, both of them could be late rd steals.  

 

[GobbleDog 975]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

M Williams Jets, And C Samuel Bills, both of them could be late rd steals. 

I'm more interested in Bills Wr Keon Coleman, who's ADP (WR 58) is about the same as Samuel & Shakir. I'm rarely bullish on rookie Wrs, but this is the exception.  Coleman isn't fast (4.61 40-meter) and doesn't get separation, but can he do?  The former basketball player jumps up and out-rebounds everyone for the football, as he did time and time again at FSU (even with crappy Qb play). This landing spot with Allen is perfect and I foresee a lot of deep targets, big yardage and Tds.

[Maximum Overkill 1,730]

I feel like McConkey is underrated in redraft. If he's healthy he should see 100+ targets quite easily. Right now he's #1 on the depth chart and the only true possession receiver on the roster. 

I don't love the player but if he can stay healthy, the volume is all but a guarantee.

[GobbleDog 975]

5 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

I feel like McConkey is underrated in redraft. If he's healthy he should see 100+ targets quite easily. Right now he's #1 on the depth chart and the only true possession receiver on the roster. 

I don't love the player but if he can stay healthy, the volume is all but a guarantee.

I haven't given up on Quentin Johnston yet and the Chargers probably haven't either considering the draft capital invested. Quentin was terrible last year, but he was a rookie and the 3rd banana on the team (sometimes 4th after Palmer). He'll get better - can't do any worse, but how much better in a Harbaugh run-first team with Palmer and McConkey competing is debatable. That's why Johnston is ranked WR 65 with an ADP of 13.5. Looks like value to me.

[Maximum Overkill 1,730]

30 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

That's why Johnston is ranked WR 65 with an ADP of 13.5. Looks like value to me.

Definite value there and certainly worth a shot at that ADP. 

[weepaws 3,143]

6 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

I feel like McConkey is underrated in redraft. If he's healthy he should see 100+ targets quite easily. Right now he's #1 on the depth chart and the only true possession receiver on the roster. 

I don't love the player but if he can stay healthy, the volume is all but a guarantee.

I’m hoping he staying underrated, I like as a bench wr, and see what happens, but I think he’s their next Allen.  

[weepaws 3,143]

6 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

I'm more interested in Bills Wr Keon Coleman, who's ADP (WR 58) is about the same as Samuel & Shakir. I'm rarely bullish on rookie Wrs, but this is the exception.  Coleman isn't fast (4.61 40-meter) and doesn't get separation, but can he do?  The former basketball player jumps up and out-rebounds everyone for the football, as he did time and time again at FSU (even with crappy Qb play). This landing spot with Allen is perfect and I foresee a lot of deep targets, big yardage and Tds.

It’s a tough one, so many question marks at the wr slot for Allen.  Reason I’m taking Samuel, experience, plus he’s very fast, he’s going to get rush att at times also, like end arounds.  

[weepaws 3,143]

Rb #50. C Hubbard, I hope I can get him as my 5th rb, He beat out Sanders during the season last yr, Brooks going to miss time, I can get a rb3 at a rb5 price would be great.  

 

[weepaws 3,143]

Rb #25 J Conner, in a non ppr, if I can get him that cheap, my Rbs will be awesome, Conner is better than a rb3.  He’s going to get injured, but he’s going to be their rb1 this season.  

[Maximum Overkill 1,730]

1 minute ago, weepaws said:

Rb #25 J Conner, in a non ppr, if I can get him that cheap, my Rbs will be awesome, Conner is better than a rb3.  He’s going to get injured, but he’s going to be their rb1 this season.  

Good call. I'd back that up with Benson in the later rounds and own that backfield. 

[GobbleDog 975]

56 minutes ago, weepaws said:

It’s a tough one, so many question marks at the wr slot for Allen.  Reason I’m taking Samuel, experience, plus he’s very fast, he’s going to get rush att at times also, like end arounds.  

I think Samuel used to play slot at Washington...  but doubt he does that at Buffalo as that was Shakir's role last year. Obviously Buffalo saw something they like in Samuel giving him a 3-year $24 mill contract with $15 mill guaranteed.  So, you're probably not wrong targeting him.

[weepaws 3,143]

1 hour ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Good call. I'd back that up with Benson in the later rounds and own that backfield. 

Keeper/Dynasty leagues Benson would be near the top of my wish list.  He’s going to be a very good Rb.  

[IGotWorms 4,057]

39 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

I think Samuel used to play slot at Washington...  but doubt he does that at Buffalo as that was Shakir's role last year. Obviously Buffalo saw something they like in Samuel giving him a 3-year $24 mill contract with $15 mill guaranteed.  So, you're probably not wrong targeting him.

Shakir is a jag and Buffalo knows it. If Samuel can shine in the slot then they’ll put him there

[Maximum Overkill 1,730]

18 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Shakir is a jag and Buffalo knows it.

He is a jag but there's definitely a roll with opportunity there. Probably more for those playing best ball. He'll sprinkle in a big game here and there

[weepaws 3,143]

Plenty of opportunities for J Cook, I think he’s a little underrated right now.  

[IGotWorms 4,057]

1 hour ago, Maximum Overkill said:

He is a jag but there's definitely a roll with opportunity there. Probably more for those playing best ball. He'll sprinkle in a big game here and there

My point is, Shakir’s presence is no impediment to Samuel, if Samuel is actually good (I don’t think he is, but that’s a different issue)

[Maximum Overkill 1,730]

54 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

My point is, Shakir’s presence is no impediment to Samuel, if Samuel is actually good (I don’t think he is, but that’s a different issue)

Samuels is 3 for 30 guy. Always has been, always will be. He'll have a breakout game or two but he's not a threat to anyone. 

[weepaws 3,143]

Don’t think any of Buffaloes wr are worth much.  

[GobbleDog 975]

3 hours ago, weepaws said:

Don’t think any of Buffaloes wr are worth much.  

Over the past three years Allen has averaged 384 completions per season. Let's give Cooks 50 (which would be a record high for Allen to Rbs). Let's give te Kincaid 90 (even though he only had 73 last year). Let's say 30 to te Knox. That totals 170 leaving another 210 on the table - at the very least. One of the Wrs is going to get the bulk of those. I don't know which, but Shakir seems least likely given history/situation - so Samuel or Coleman. Given their ridiculously low adp's... how can you not be intrigued?  Looks like free fantasy gold waiting to be mined.

[Ray_T 738]

On 6/7/2024 at 2:26 PM, TBayXXXVII said:

Understand, I think Baker Mayfield is trash

the NFL did at times too.   there were some games (especially early in the year) where they played to stuff the run and dared him to throw the ball.    but he turned out to be a bit better than everyone thought hed be.

I fully agree the line additions via the draft should help though sometimes it takes a year for an O lineman to fully get their feet under them at the pro level.

that said, if we assume that Barton is a plug and play guy (and he could potentially be) that would be a difference maker for this offense.

[weepaws 3,143]

3 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Over the past three years Allen has averaged 384 completions per season. Let's give Cooks 50 (which would be a record high for Allen to Rbs). Let's give te Kincaid 90 (even though he only had 73 last year). Let's say 30 to te Knox. That totals 170 leaving another 210 on the table - at the very least. One of the Wrs is going to get the bulk of those. I don't know which, but Shakir seems least likely given history/situation - so Samuel or Coleman. Given their ridiculously low adp's... how can you not be intrigued?  Looks like free fantasy gold waiting to be mined.

Diggs was good for about 108 or so of those rec.  I not use projections  when I do my own rankings, but after reading what you said for the fun of it I looked up projection for Samuel/Coleman,Shakir, total rec for the three is 157, for Kincaid and Knox total is 100, for Cook it’s 48, that’s 305,  I think it’s logical to think Allen’s numbers might drop a little imo.  

Of the three WRs if I had to take one I’m going with Samuel, but I do think Cook will register more than 48 rec.  

Based on ADP I think Samuel is a good buy low, bench reserve player, but I’m not really targeting any of them.  

[IGotWorms 4,057]

14 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Over the past three years Allen has averaged 384 completions per season. Let's give Cooks 50 (which would be a record high for Allen to Rbs). Let's give te Kincaid 90 (even though he only had 73 last year). Let's say 30 to te Knox. That totals 170 leaving another 210 on the table - at the very least. One of the Wrs is going to get the bulk of those. I don't know which, but Shakir seems least likely given history/situation - so Samuel or Coleman. Given their ridiculously low adp's... how can you not be intrigued?  Looks like free fantasy gold waiting to be mined.

It’s a good theory but Samuel just is not that good and Coleman is a rookie. I’m interested in Coleman because rookie WRs have been making it happen in recent years but still