Second WR Question: Houston WR’S

[wolves111 82]

In addition to the SF situation the Texans receiver fantasy implications are draft making or draft killing decisions. Collins going round three and Dell a couple rounds later. Both possible #2 wrs along with Diggs. Only one football as they say but I’m beginning to consider other options.

Dells as a #3 ok but Collins round three I’m leery. And then there’s Diggs and Schultz. Throw in Mixon and there’s just to much talent.

 

[IGotWorms 3,759]

Dell is tiny and got hurt last year so I don’t like him at any appreciable price.

Collins, seems like he’s due to regress a bit especially with Diggs in town. I ain’t chasing last years production.

Diggs, I wish he’d fall a bit and I’d be all over him at a discount price. If he hasn’t lost a step he’s a game changing pick. If he has he’ll still perform at a WR3 level. But he’s being drafted just a little higher than I’d like.

[JagFan 117]

6 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Dell is tiny and got hurt last year so I don’t like him at any appreciable price.

Collins, seems like he’s due to regress a bit especially with Diggs in town. I ain’t chasing last years production.

Diggs, I wish he’d fall a bit and I’d be all over him at a discount price. If he hasn’t lost a step he’s a game changing pick. If he has he’ll still perform at a WR3 level. But he’s being drafted just a little higher than I’d like.

My concern about Diggs is how he’s going to react to not being constantly target, because he won’t be.  What’s his attitude going to be down the stretch?  It’s just a tough situation to read.  I think all 3 will have huge weeks, but you’ve got to get lucky picking which one.

[wolves111 82]

6 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Dell is tiny and got hurt last year so I don’t like him at any appreciable price.

Collins, seems like he’s due to regress a bit especially with Diggs in town. I ain’t chasing last years production.

Diggs, I wish he’d fall a bit and I’d be all over him at a discount price. If he hasn’t lost a step he’s a game changing pick. If he has he’ll still perform at a WR3 level. But he’s being drafted just a little higher than I’d like.

Well that’s good news for Stroud owners I guess. Lots of options but now he’s going round four. Can’t take a qb that high 

[Ray_T 673]

6 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Dell is tiny and got hurt last year so I don’t like him at any appreciable price.

Collins, seems like he’s due to regress a bit especially with Diggs in town. I ain’t chasing last years production.

Diggs, I wish he’d fall a bit and I’d be all over him at a discount price. If he hasn’t lost a step he’s a game changing pick. If he has he’ll still perform at a WR3 level. But he’s being drafted just a little higher than I’d like.

hard to say with diggs.   last half of the year he wasnt very good.  as I mentioned in the bills thread, I'm not sure if he played hurt or if he was pouting and not performing to his usual level, or if hes just gotten older and regressed some.

but his addition really takes away the certainty we had with some of the houston players for fantasy.

[wolves111 82]

2 minutes ago, JagFan said:

My concern about Diggs is how he’s going to react to not being constantly target, because he won’t be.  What’s his attitude going to be down the stretch?  It’s just a tough situation to read.  I think all 3 will have huge weeks, but you’ve got to get lucky picking which one.

Yeah there’s a lot of uncertainty with the wrs this year. Dilutes the production for sure. Houston, Rams, Philly, Cincinnati, SF and others. Makes me think rb resurgence this year 

[GobbleDog 890]

In last year's Bold Predictions I picked Nico Collins (then Wr 53) to "finish top 25" because of talent and changes in Houston. Despite missing two games he finished Wr 18 (wks 1-17 ppr) and Wr 15 in points per game.  One for the good guys!

So now Collins is ranked Wr 17.  Ugh...  not much value, but I do think that's about right. Even with Diggs, he should continue producing. He's a proven asset in Houston, entering 4th year, and much better than Diggs at the downfield stuff, which is Stroud's bread and butter.

Diggs at Wr 23 is too rich for my blood. Old, faded horribly last year, new team, poor deep-pass metrics, and number of targets is a huge question.

Dell at Wr 32 seems bit high given the target competition. I think he'd be a better best ball pick as he probably has several spike weeks. He's a deep threat, but that usually means a lot of down weeks too.

[weepaws 2,693]

Collins is the only one I like, not at his current adp, but many mocks I’ve been in he’s been taking later than his adp.  

Mixon I think is the one that will make it difficult owning anyone of-those wrs.  

Mixon is very good in the passing game.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,289]

34 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

 So now Collins is ranked Wr 17.  Ugh...  not much value, but I do think that's about right. Even with Diggs, he should continue producing. He's a proven asset in Houston, entering 4th year, and much better than Diggs at the downfield stuff, which is Stroud's bread and butter.

Diggs at Wr 23 is too rich for my blood. Old, faded horribly last year, new team, poor deep-pass metrics, and number of targets is a huge question.

Dell at Wr 32 seems bit high given the target competition. I think he'd be a better best ball pick as he probably has several spike weeks. He's a deep threat, but that usually means a lot of down weeks too.

This.

Total agreement here.

[wolves111 82]

54 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

This.

Total agreement here.

Agree 

[ralphster 274]

Texans paid diggs all of the rest of the guaranteed money on his deal this year, so there is no next year if his diva attitude decides to visit.  I think diggs develops into a clutch 3rd down/move the chains/red zone guy.

Nico is the wr1, currently being drafted at his ceiling. still likely finishing top 20, but not the value he was last year at all.

Dell would be the one I'd draft, and I'll have several copies in best ball leagues.

[RareN64Dream 11]

The Texans defense seems a bit improved. I could see Joe Mixon being the best player to own on the roster for value in fantasy; while CJ Stroud being solid also.

[Ray_T 673]

2 hours ago, weepaws said:

Mixon is very good in the passing game.  

he is..... if the team is smart enough to use him in this way.

they should, but its not by any means a slam dunk.   some coaches dont necessarily see things the way we do hahaha

[Maximum Overkill 1,125]

Nico is the WR to own in Houston, the contract validates it. 

[polecatt 417]

I think the Texans potentially have 4-5 WRs with fantasy value.

Diggs is obviously the big name, but I think he's on a Deandre Hopkins, 30+ career tour though, so he's probably more like a streaky WR2 than an WR1.

Nico isn't far behind, and it wouldn't shock me if he ends the season as their best WR going forward. Both should be a solid fantasy WR2 or potentially even a low end WR1. It's not that either would be a bad pick, but I don't see either sliding a couple of rounds to where they are great value picks.

Tank Dell is the WR I love on this team though. Or more specifically, he's the type of player I love to have on my team. He's not someone I would want to rely on as a weekly starter, but at the same time, I would feel very good putting him in the starting line up if need be. If one of my regular starters is injured, or on bye, bad match up, etc. Dell is the go to guy. He's also a great guy to put in a flex or WR2 platoon if need be.  He's a first guy off the bench type of guy. There's also some potential he finds a good PPR niche in their offense and is a capable starter.

Noah Brown isn't a bad guy to have at the end of your bench. He's a guy that you may not start more than once or twice in a season but he's as capable as any in this tier of player to have a big game. He developed a little deep ball chemistry with CJ Stroud last season. Plus, if you need to drop a player at some point in the season, you won't feel too bad about dropping him.

Robert Woods, he's probably a little too old at this point to have much fantasy value, but who knows?

 

[lod001 1,311]

Diggs is done as far as a premier receiver. He's 3rd as far as WRs. 

[weepaws 2,693]

107rec, 1183 yards, 8 tds pretty good wr3.  He won’t match those numbers, to many other options for Stroud, but I think Diggs is still better than a wr3. 

[Ray_T 673]

16 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Nico is the WR to own in Houston, the contract validates it. 

I suspect this is probably the case.   My gut tells me Deva Diggs wont be the #1 WR here. 

 

[weepaws 2,693]

No question, Collins received a big uptick in pay,  he’s the safest pick of the three. 

[IGotWorms 3,759]

It’s diva 

[WhiteWonder 2,390]

in a regular redraft, I think this is the type of situation where I won't end up with any of them. There are receivers with similar ADP's to each who I would rather have. I think it's asking a lot of Stroud to be able to produce a Wayne/Harrison/Stokely trio 

[DocNiner 52]

21 hours ago, RareN64Dream said:

The Texans defense seems a bit improved. I could see Joe Mixon being the best player to own on the roster for value in fantasy; while CJ Stroud being solid also.

I agree that Mixon and Stroud are the guys you want from the Texans. Too much going on in the WR group for me in terms of value. I'm.also.drinking the koolaid on the Texans defense.

[Maximum Overkill 1,125]

5 hours ago, Ray_T said:

I suspect this is probably the case.   My gut tells me Deva Diggs wont be the #1 WR here. 

 

Agree. Diggs and Nico may clash. Nico is definitely an alpha, there could be some crap going down if Diggs starts his BS. 

Nico is the obvious WR1 

[Ray_T 673]

4 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

It’s diva 

you say tomato I say Tomahto.

lol

[Super Cubs 140]

PPR Dell is going to be the most consistent fantasy WR on the team.

[weepaws 2,693]

2 hours ago, Super Cubs said:

PPR Dell is going to be the most consistent fantasy WR on the team.

Do you know which one will be the slot wr? 

[Ray_T 673]

3 hours ago, weepaws said:

Do you know which one will be the slot wr? 

it feels like its likely to be Dell.   Though I cannot say for sure.   

wouldnt surprise me if they move everyone around on some plays

[weepaws 2,693]

It’s either going to be Dell or Diggs, Collins will be the number one.   I know that Super Cub is a big Texans fan. 

[kcBlitzkrieg 27]

On 7/17/2024 at 3:35 PM, DocNiner said:

I agree that Mixon and Stroud are the guys you want from the Texans. Too much going on in the WR group for me in terms of value. I'm.also.drinking the koolaid on the Texans defense.

Why do we like Mixon again ?  ADP like or I want him on multiple squads like ?  

What do we expect the split to look like with him and Pierce?  Texans run zone, Mixon ran zone in Cincy since '21 so that's a plus.  He's 27 years old, not too old for nfl RB.  

[weepaws 2,693]

I’m not concern aboutD Pierce And His 2.5 yards per rush att.  It’s going to be all Mixon.  

[Ray_T 673]

21 hours ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

Why do we like Mixon again ?  ADP like or I want him on multiple squads like ?  

What do we expect the split to look like with him and Pierce?  Texans run zone, Mixon ran zone in Cincy since '21 so that's a plus.  He's 27 years old, not too old for nfl RB.  

mixons ADP isnt that early to be frank.   

but for me its a combination of things.    

1) when you can draft a player a couple rounds later than the year before, you are getting more value for the draft capital you are expending.    so I like Mixon a lot more at this years ADP than I did at last years ADP.

2) the line in cincy has not been good the last couple years.   partly due to injury but partly due to non performance of certain players and partly due to losing some starters to free agency.

3)  the line in Houston is better than the line was in his old home.   so its pretty easy to project a better year.     dont get me wrong, I'm not by any means saying this guy is an RB1.   but I am saying he provides good value for where his average draft position is. (which happens to be #49 overall and #16 among RB's on average taken early in the 5th round of PPR drafts)

so as a middling RB2.  I dont mind the pick.

 

 

 

 

[IGotWorms 3,759]

5 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

mixons ADP isnt that early to be frank.   

but for me its a combination of things.    

1) when you can draft a player a couple rounds later than the year before, you are getting more value for the draft capital you are expending.    so I like Mixon a lot more at this years ADP than I did at last years ADP.

2) the line in cincy has not been good the last couple years.   partly due to injury but partly due to non performance of certain players and partly due to losing some starters to free agency.

3)  the line in Houston is better than the line was in his old home.   so its pretty easy to project a better year.     dont get me wrong, I'm not by any means saying this guy is an RB1.   but I am saying he provides good value for where his average draft position is. (which happens to be #49 overall and #16 among RB's on average taken early in the 5th round of PPR drafts)

so as a middling RB2.  I dont mind the pick.

 

 

 

 

My issue with Mixon was he was terrible last year. Pure volume saved him.

I get it, Houston should be a better offense, and he’ll still get volume there. I can nearly talk myself into it. But I think production matters

[DocNiner 52]

23 hours ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

Why do we like Mixon again ?  ADP like or I want him on multiple squads like ?  

What do we expect the split to look like with him and Pierce?  Texans run zone, Mixon ran zone in Cincy since '21 so that's a plus.  He's 27 years old, not too old for nfl RB.  

I think he represents better value at his current ADP. As stated the Texans O-line will be better than Cincy's. He's probably not gonna face.many 8 in the box.given the receiving corps the Texans have with Diggs,Collins and Dell. Defense are.gonna be more worried about them than the run game game so there should be some good holes for Mixon to run through. He won't get a ton of passes his way but enough that.he can do.somethjng with them. Overall I think he'll have a lot better production this year with the Texans than he had last year with the Bengals. Plus he's not old for an.RB yet.

[Ray_T 673]

1 hour ago, IGotWorms said:

My issue with Mixon was he was terrible last year. Pure volume saved him.

I get it, Houston should be a better offense, and he’ll still get volume there. I can nearly talk myself into it. But I think production matters

i understand.   

Mixons efficiency wasnt good.

but when running behind a bad line its only the truly special backs who will perform in that situation.   it also does not help when your starting QB goes down and you are running with a backup.

if I were a Defensive Coordinator I'd  be stacking the box to stop Mixon and force the backup to throw the football.   

I never got to watch many cincy games after the Burrow injury but it wouldnt surprise me if thats the way it went down.   and given that the line wasnt that good to begin with I'm surprised Mixon did as well as he did.

so I guess its a matter of perspective.    

do I think hes a special player.    No.

do I think hes good enough to provide value as a middling RB2 at a fantasy draft?    Yes

to be clear  if you draft him as an RB1 there is a better than average chance he could disappoint and thats likely where he was drafted the Last couple years.   thus, the disappointment

[weepaws 2,693]

1 hour ago, IGotWorms said:

My issue with Mixon was he was terrible last year. Pure volume saved him.

I get it, Houston should be a better offense, and he’ll still get volume there. I can nearly talk myself into it. But I think production matters

Volume will produce his numbers alone.   He’s their rb1, on What Should be one of the best scoring teams in the NFL, nothing to talk yourself into , you seem be to doing the opposite. 

[weepaws 2,693]

20 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

i understand.   

Mixons efficiency wasnt good.

but when running behind a bad line its only the truly special backs who will perform in that situation.   it also does not help when your starting QB goes down and you are running with a backup.

if I were a Defensive Coordinator I'd  be stacking the box to stop Mixon and force the backup to throw the football.   

I never got to watch many cincy games after the Burrow injury but it wouldnt surprise me if thats the way it went down.   and given that the line wasnt that good to begin with I'm surprised Mixon did as well as he did.

so I guess its a matter of perspective.    

do I think hes a special player.    No.

do I think hes good enough to provide value as a middling RB2 at a fantasy draft?    Yes

to be clear  if you draft him as an RB1 there is a better than average chance he could disappoint and thats likely where he was drafted the Last couple years.   thus, the disappointment

Two of the last three seasons, he finished as a rb1.  

[Ray_T 673]

7 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Two of the last three seasons, he finished as a rb1.  

my point is at this adp the odds of a disappointment are a whole lot lower than they were last year because the bar is set lower with the later ADP

[weepaws 2,693]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

my point is at this adp the odds of a disappointment are a whole lot lower than they were last year because the bar is set lower with the later ADP

Mmm in non ppr, half ppr, full ppr His adp is rb2, I think that’s about the norm for him, right? 

[Super Cubs 140]

On 7/19/2024 at 8:27 AM, weepaws said:

Do you know which one will be the slot wr? 

I do not and Dell is more of a gut feeling.  It sounds like CJ and Diggs are really clicking early in camp. Who knows what is going to happen?

[Ray_T 673]

29 minutes ago, Super Cubs said:

I do not and Dell is more of a gut feeling.  It sounds like CJ and Diggs are really clicking early in camp. Who knows what is going to happen?

well, I suspect Diggs would not be the happy camper he is if Houston was planning on playing him out of the slot.

hes gunning for another contract in free agency.   hed be unhappy if they put him in the slot.   Pretty sure we'd see a legendary hissy fit if that were to come to pass.