Gibbs vs Barkley

[wolves111 82]

There's an interesting debate today on MSM regarding the merits of taking one over the other. Bottom line from the author of the article is that Barkley is the preferred pick because he won't be sharing the backfield like Gibbs will be with Montgomery.

In Fuzzy's FF league Gibbs is going 5 picks ahead of Barkley and 6 picks ahead of Taylor.

I'm holding the 10th pick in a 10-team redraft and there are several really good options. At 10, 11 Gibbs/Puka, Gibbs/Barkley, Barkley/Taylor, Gibbs/Taylor and so on.

Anyone have a strong opinion on the best strategy at the turn in round 1 and 2?

[GobbleDog 890]

4 hours ago, wolves111 said:

Anyone have a strong opinion on the best strategy at the turn in round 1 and 2?

I do!

PPR, Wr-Wr is too obvious especially in a 10-girl league which guarantees numerous starting Rbs in middle rounds. Early picks are your most valuable draft capital. Investing that into the most volatile/unpredictable position is risky.

I've hammered reasons why I think Barkley will be the biggest fantasy disappointment this season. Poor metrics, injury risk, less usage than in NY, Hurts steals goal line. He could fall to the 4th rd and I still wouldn't draft him - that's not hyperbole. I think that low of his prospects.

Don't love Gibbs considering Monty gets bulk of easy short-yard Tds... 17 attempts inside five, scored 8. Gibbs had 10 attempts inside five, scored 4... he has to earn his the hard way - from distance. That's not reliable. They also split too many carries as Gibbs only had 182 carries last year (granted missed two games), but still... 27 other Rbs finished with more carries - including Montgomery. I love the receptions, but I wouldn't spend a 2nd rounder on him.

[wolves111 82]

39 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

I do!

PPR, Wr-Wr is too obvious especially in a 10-girl league which guarantees numerous starting Rbs in middle rounds. Early picks are your most valuable draft capital. Investing that into the most volatile/unpredictable position is risky.

I've hammered reasons why I think Barkley will be the biggest fantasy disappointment this season. Poor metrics, injury risk, lower usage than in NY, Hurts steals goal line. He could fall to the 4th rd and I still wouldn't draft him - that's not hyperbole. I think that low of his prospects.

Don't love Gibbs considering Monty gets bulk of easy short-yard Tds... 17 attempts inside five, scored 8. Gibbs had 10 attempts inside five, scored 4... he has to earn his the hard way - from distance. That's not reliable. They also split too many carries as Gibbs only had 182 carries last year (granted missed two games), but still... 27 other Rbs finished with more carries - including Montgomery. I love the receptions, but I wouldn't spend a 2nd rounder on him.

Picking 10th the wr's available are A,J, Brown and Adams in Fuzzy's mock draft/rankings. I'd rather take two rb;s and get N. Collins and Waddle at picks 30,31.

[GobbleDog 890]

1 hour ago, wolves111 said:

Picking 10th the wr's available are A,J, Brown and Adams in Fuzzy's mock draft/rankings. I'd rather take two rb;s and get N. Collins and Waddle at picks 30,31.

Don't know Fuzzy... but with the 10th pick Brown, Wilson, and Nacua should all be available.

Collins and Waddle are fine picks at the 3rd/4th turn, but whichever two early Rbs you select will likely disappoint. How do I know? Because the majority of early Rb picks don't live up to expectation. And those picks are your most valuable draft capital. In a 10-teamer you can easily fill two Rb spots along with depth from rounds 5 to 10. Throw in some lotto picks later, work the waivers... Let the competition feel the pain of their early picks disappointing.

I can tell you're dead set on drafting an early Rb no matter what I say, and it might work out. Just riskier. If I was FORCED to draft a Rb that early... I'd want Taylor, after the big 3 are gone of course (McCaff, Hall, Bijan). Taylor is in a much better situation, than Gibbs or Barkley.

[weepaws 2,693]

3 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

I do!

PPR, Wr-Wr is too obvious especially in a 10-girl league which guarantees numerous starting Rbs in middle rounds. Early picks are your most valuable draft capital. Investing that into the most volatile/unpredictable position is risky.

I've hammered reasons why I think Barkley will be the biggest fantasy disappointment this season. Poor metrics, injury risk, less usage than in NY, Hurts steals goal line. He could fall to the 4th rd and I still wouldn't draft him - that's not hyperbole. I think that low of his prospects.

Don't love Gibbs considering Monty gets bulk of easy short-yard Tds... 17 attempts inside five, scored 8. Gibbs had 10 attempts inside five, scored 4... he has to earn his the hard way - from distance. That's not reliable. They also split too many carries as Gibbs only had 182 carries last year (granted missed two games), but still... 27 other Rbs finished with more carries - including Montgomery. I love the receptions, but I wouldn't spend a 2nd rounder on him.

Agreed, in ppr wr/wr should be the best way to go, and in small ten team league, always plenty of Rbs available later.  In ten team ppr mocks I have taken three WRs in the first three rds , and still in up in good shape at rb.  

[jrokh 583]

Gibbs finished 7th in avg ppg in half ppr last year. he's going to get the ball more this year. Do the math...

[weepaws 2,693]

PPR leagues WRs go early, and often, best to jump on that slot first.   Half ppr going wr/rb or rb/wr is a good play.   

[GobbleDog 890]

30 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Gibbs finished 7th in avg ppg in half ppr last year. he's going to get the ball more this year. Do the math...

Actually 9th (fantasypros weeks 1-17 hlf pt)  https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/leaders/half-ppr-rb.php?year=2023&start=1&end=17

Regardless, what indicates Gibbs gets the ball more? Lions offense was so efficient last year, I doubt they'd want to make much change. Especially with Monty playing so well and Gibbs at a slight 5'9" 200 lbs... makes sense why Monty got the goal line bulk. Probably don't want to work-horse him.

[jrokh 583]

18 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Actually 9th (fantasypros weeks 1-17 hlf pt)  https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/leaders/half-ppr-rb.php?year=2023&start=1&end=17

Regardless, what indicates Gibbs gets the ball more? Lions offense was so efficient last year, I doubt they'd want to make much change. Especially with Monty playing so well and Gibbs at a slight 5'9" 200 lbs... makes sense why Monty got the goal line bulk. Probably don't want to work-horse him.

Yeah my league doesn’t compute week 17 stats, because why would they. Here is link from GM saying expectations are for a larger workload for Gibbs…

https://x.com/profootballtalk/status/1790476868379881812?s=46&t=RVEI5z4YFGHB1Rohv_MEHA

[Maximum Overkill 1,126]

1 hour ago, jrokh said:

Gibbs finished 7th in avg ppg in half ppr last year. he's going to get the ball more this year. Do the math...

Agree, the pass catching upside is huge. It's Gibbs 

[weepaws 2,693]

One upside for Gibbs owners is possible usage in the slot.  

[Ray_T 673]

2 hours ago, jrokh said:

Gibbs finished 7th in avg ppg in half ppr last year. he's going to get the ball more this year. Do the math...

good post.

and pass catching RB's usually get scarce once you get into round 3.  In my opinion if you can get one or two premium RBs who do it all at the turn, thats a win.   Especially if WR have gone early and often in the early part of the draft.    while there are one (or maybe two) WR who might be around at this point in the draft I'd make the exception for, I think RB is a good call at this point.   You really need a WR in the top tier if you are picking one in round 1.

so for me, the answer is..... it depends on who is on the board.

That said, I have found that going RB-RB or WR-WR at the turn will create a sense of urgency to grab players at that position after you make the selection, so sometimes doing something like this will turn the draft on its head and start a run at the position (which you likely dont care about if you just picked 2) but may significantly alter the draft strategy others have to use.

I know the advantage may be psychological mostly but the problem with that is that you then likely feel like you NEED to take a WR in your next pick.   So to some degree, you are also making yourself a bit more predictable.    sometimes that matters, sometimes it doesnt.

 

[wolves111 82]

2 hours ago, Ray_T said:

good post.

and pass catching RB's usually get scarce once you get into round 3.  In my opinion if you can get one or two premium RBs who do it all at the turn, thats a win.   Especially if WR have gone early and often in the early part of the draft.    while there are one (or maybe two) WR who might be around at this point in the draft I'd make the exception for, I think RB is a good call at this point.   You really need a WR in the top tier if you are picking one in round 1.

so for me, the answer is..... it depends on who is on the board.

That said, I have found that going RB-RB or WR-WR at the turn will create a sense of urgency to grab players at that position after you make the selection, so sometimes doing something like this will turn the draft on its head and start a run at the position (which you likely dont care about if you just picked 2) but may significantly alter the draft strategy others have to use.

I know the advantage may be psychological mostly but the problem with that is that you then likely feel like you NEED to take a WR in your next pick.   So to some degree, you are also making yourself a bit more predictable.    sometimes that matters, sometimes it doesnt.

 

That’s so true. I read years ago a post from a guy who said after years of doing this that sticking to the basics always works. 
Let the draft come to you. If possible go rb, wr, rb, wr to start. Or wr, rb, and so on.

if I can pick Gibbs, Puka, Collins and Walker I’m probably gold.

[Ray_T 673]

8 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

That’s so true. I read years ago a post from a guy who said after years of doing this that sticking to the basics always works. 
Let the draft come to you. If possible go rb, wr, rb, wr to start. Or wr, rb, and so on.

if I can pick Gibbs, Puka, Collins and Walker I’m probably gold.

100%.

if WR (or RB)go early and often, you never wanna go in at the end of a run on a position unless someone slipped through the cracks who shouldn't have.

just like if the RB have been picked clean in the first round, you should then probably take the best two WR on the board.

its all about getting a premium player.   and it doesnt necessarily need to be WR or RB.    it can be either.  but if you pick 2 WR or 2 RB at the turn and nail both, you will dominate at that position.   next goal is to find a second position to dominate.  

 

 

[Ray_T 673]

to be clear, drafting on the end, flexibility is key.  you dont get to set the direction of the draft until it is your turn.    you may wanna take a RB but if 9 of the first 11 picks are RB the smart money doesnt buy a RB at that point (even if you had planned it)     so I'd plan for 2 scenarios.  one where lots of RB go early and one where lots of WR go early.   you may even do a third scenario where it is a mix.   but the key is flexibility when drafting that late.

[wolves111 82]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

to be clear, drafting on the end, flexibility is key.  you dont get to set the direction of the draft until it is your turn.    you may wanna take a RB but if 9 of the first 11 picks are RB the smart money doesnt buy a RB at that point (even if you had planned it)     so I'd plan for 2 scenarios.  one where lots of RB go early and one where lots of WR go early.   you may even do a third scenario where it is a mix.   but the key is flexibility when drafting that late.

Spot on.

[Ray_T 673]

8 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Actually 9th (fantasypros weeks 1-17 hlf pt)  https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/leaders/half-ppr-rb.php?year=2023&start=1&end=17

Regardless, what indicates Gibbs gets the ball more? Lions offense was so efficient last year, I doubt they'd want to make much change. Especially with Monty playing so well and Gibbs at a slight 5'9" 200 lbs... makes sense why Monty got the goal line bulk. Probably don't want to work-horse him.

its hard not to expect a larger workload.  early in the season they used him rather sparingly.    even after he blew up in week 8 (I think) then he was up and down.  That is pretty normal for a rookie until he has fully gained the trust of the coach.

I think there were 5 or 6 games where the guy didnt even get 10 carries.   I have to believe his workload will even out and he will average at least a couple more carries per game.

[weepaws 2,693]

PPR pick ten, ten team league, if A J Brown, And Wilson are available that’s the two to pick.  Rd three in a ten team league, plenty of Rbs available.  

[GobbleDog 890]

10 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

That is pretty normal for a rookie until he has fully gained the trust of the coach.

Apparently he didn't "fully gain the trust of his coach" by the playoffs, despite a solid season:

Wildcard:  Monty 14 carries, Gibbs 8

Division: Monty 10 carries, Gibbs 9

Conference: Monty 15 carries, Gibbs 12

This isn't a "trust" issue - it's a two-man team strategy which worked incredibly well. Monty and Gibbs are gonna split carries until it stops working or one gets injured. I wouldn't spend an early 2nd round pick on a player who doesn't get the bulk of goal line work and might not even get 200 carries. If I was to draft a Rb that early, I'd prefer Taylor - he ain't splitting with anyone, likely gets 250 to 300+ carries, some receptions and all goal line work. But I'd still stick with Wr-Wr. Less risk and several mid-round Rbs to fill two spots.

[Ray_T 673]

56 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Apparently he didn't "fully gain the trust of his coach" by the playoffs, despite a solid season:

Wildcard:  Monty 14 carries, Gibbs 8

Division: Monty 10 carries, Gibbs 9

Conference: Monty 15 carries, Gibbs 12

This isn't a "trust" issue - it's a two-man team strategy which worked incredibly well. Monty and Gibbs are gonna split carries until it stops working or one gets injured. I wouldn't spend an early 2nd round pick on a player who doesn't get the bulk of goal line work and might not even get 200 carries. If I was to draft a Rb that early, I'd prefer Taylor - he ain't splitting with anyone, likely gets 250 to 300+ carries, some receptions and all goal line work. But I'd still stick with Wr-Wr. Less risk and several mid-round Rbs to fill two spots.

Like I said.... not abnormal for a rookie.    and David Montgomery isnt chump change.  at one point in his career he was a top 10 back for fantasy.

my best guess is on passing downs Monty got the call because hes likely better at blitz pickup.     once again, this is a normal thing.   young backs sometimes dont get on the field on passing downs for this very reason.   if they dont pickup the blitz well, they dont play on downs where its likely to happen.   These days the QB is more valuable to a team than a RB so you arent just gonna let your QB get killed.

I'm sure they will coach him up in the offseason.

while I still think the touches and carries will be split, I do think Gibbs will earn more time on the field and more touches.   How much more depends of course on how he progresses.

[WhiteWonder 2,390]

On 7/18/2024 at 9:49 AM, GobbleDog said:

I do!

PPR, Wr-Wr is too obvious especially in a 10-girl league which guarantees numerous starting Rbs in middle rounds. Early picks are your most valuable draft capital. Investing that into the most volatile/unpredictable position is risky.

I've hammered reasons why I think Barkley will be the biggest fantasy disappointment this season. Poor metrics, injury risk, less usage than in NY, Hurts steals goal line. He could fall to the 4th rd and I still wouldn't draft him - that's not hyperbole. I think that low of his prospects.

Don't love Gibbs considering Monty gets bulk of easy short-yard Tds... 17 attempts inside five, scored 8. Gibbs had 10 attempts inside five, scored 4... he has to earn his the hard way - from distance. That's not reliable. They also split too many carries as Gibbs only had 182 carries last year (granted missed two games), but still... 27 other Rbs finished with more carries - including Montgomery. I love the receptions, but I wouldn't spend a 2nd rounder on him.

I like the 10-girl league jab but in reality, a 10 team league with all smart owners is more challenging than a 12 team league with some half ass owners. But I digress. You have to know your league... if RB's go fast and furious, then there could be merit to landing Gibbs and Taylor, which would be my duo of preference although I wouldn't hate the upside of Barkley. 

If you do think there will be good backs available at the 3/4 turn, then I would probably grab Garret Wilson and AJ Brown.

[Ray_T 673]

30 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

I like the 10-girl league jab but in reality, a 10 team league with all smart owners is more challenging than a 12 team league with some half ass owners. But I digress. You have to know your league... if RB's go fast and furious, then there could be merit to landing Gibbs and Taylor, which would be my duo of preference although I wouldn't hate the upside of Barkley. 

If you do think there will be good backs available at the 3/4 turn, then I would probably grab Garret Wilson and AJ Brown.

excellent comment.

number one rule of fantasy football.

1)  Know your league-this includes scoring, rules and what your opponents like to do at the draft table.

this trumps nearly every other rule because it affect everything in one way or another including how you should draft your team to maximize results.

in terms of waiting, it really depends how the draft falls.     you do also need to keep in mind the dynamics for RB isnt the same as the dynamics for WR because  if your league starts 2 RB and its a 10 team draft, the squeeze on the position is a whole lot different than it is for a 12 team draft because in a 12 teamer there are not enough starting RB to go around to allow everyone to have a starter as their third RB.  someone will need to have a backup/committee guy as their RB3.    That dynamic doesnt exist in a 10 teamer as there are enough starting RB for each team to have 2 starters and one backup who are all starters on their respective teams.

 

so the pressure on the position isnt as great.

as such, you are more likely to be able to use a zero RB strategy in this scenario.

 

[weepaws 2,693]

38 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

I like the 10-girl league jab but in reality, a 10 team league with all smart owners is more challenging than a 12 team league with some half ass owners. But I digress. You have to know your league... if RB's go fast and furious, then there could be merit to landing Gibbs and Taylor, which would be my duo of preference although I wouldn't hate the upside of Barkley. 

If you do think there will be good backs available at the 3/4 turn, then I would probably grab Garret Wilson and AJ Brown.

I already covered all of that.  Thank you Mr Tuesday FF Guru.  

[WhiteWonder 2,390]

20 hours ago, weepaws said:

I already covered all of that.  Thank you Mr Tuesday FF Guru.  

someone woke up on the wrong side of the bible 

[weepaws 2,693]

16 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

someone woke up on the wrong side of the bible 

Just pointing out the truth.  Wanna get off my back now, I’m getting tired of carrying you.  

[WhiteWonder 2,390]

1 minute ago, weepaws said:

Just pointing out the truth.  Wanna get off my back now, I’m getting tired of carrying you.  

i'm not going to get into it with a clear troll.  explain to me how the comment you quoted is considered Tuesday Morning FF, when I am responding to someone about a topic that is still relevant until the season begins and drafts end?

thanks, god bless

[Ray_T 673]

20 hours ago, weepaws said:

I already covered all of that.  Thank you Mr Tuesday FF Guru.  

guys we need to chill on this.

this all started with this comment that was borderline offside.

I came down on someone else who criticized you on another thread for a similar action so I'm not being unfair.   Lets keep this about football.  everyone has a right to express an opinion.  You dont need to agree with it.   but we do need to be civil to those who do express theirs.

[WhiteWonder 2,390]

2 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

guys we need to chill on this.

this all started with this comment that was borderline offside.

I came down on someone else who criticized you on another thread for a similar action so I'm not being unfair.   Lets keep this about football.  everyone has a right to express an opinion.  You dont need to agree with it.   but we do need to be civil to those who do express theirs.

he just thinks he's being clever because last season there were a few occasions where I did respond to some posts on the little help board, after the fact.

weepy doesn't bother me at all. although it is sad that posters like him are one of the biggest reasons this forum is such a ghost town. 

[wolves111 82]

Just now, Ray_T said:

guys we need to chill on this.

this all started with this comment that was borderline offside.

I came down on someone else who criticized you on another thread for a similar action so I'm not being unfair.   Lets keep this about football.  everyone has a right to express an opinion.  You dont need to agree with it.   but we do need to be civil to those who do express theirs.

Yeah, it was me. Are you starting to see the common denominator here? This guy whom I have blocked gets into it with anyone and everyone. He's got issues and it takes the fun out of this board.

[wolves111 82]

Just now, WhiteWonder said:

he just thinks he's being clever because last season there were a few occasions where I did respond to some posts on the little help board, after the fact.

weepy doesn't bother me at all. although it is sad that posters like him are one of the biggest reasons this forum is such a ghost town. 

Well, if everyone blocks him end of problem.

[Ray_T 673]

2 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

Yeah, it was me.

I know.   wasnt naming you by name.   but if I'm gonna give you hell for this its only fair I give him hell for doing the same thing.

not trying to be a jerk but I also dont need to see a lot of flames on the board.  I'd prefer this stays about football and not a debate over who is to blame or who is being a jerk.

[wolves111 82]

I agree. This should be a way to engage others about their opinions on football.

But being human sometimes it’s hard to ignore a jerk. Maybe he’ll see the light.

 

[polecatt 417]

This is gonna come down to how the eagles use Barkley in duo with Hurts.

Barkley certainly has huge upside going from a lackluster offense to one of the best rushing offenses in the NFL. What does he have left in the tank?

I think sometimes when a RB makes a move like this, they can get one big season and maybe one okay season, before things bottom out.

If he can still make it a full go for another full season, I can see a high ceiling, of say,   1600-1800 total yards, 50-60 catches, and 13-16TDs. Not saying that's what he's gonna get, but I think he can come close to that if all things align his way next season. I don't think that would be a huge shock to anyone. I also don't think it would shock anyone if he misses 10 games and is mediocre in the ones he does play.

Gibbs, I think he's very talented, but he also has a solid stable mate, Montgomery, with a well carved out role that involves red zone carries. Gibbs should get most of the work in the passing game, but last season's 11TDs may be difficult to match. I expect him to get a few more touches, I don't think it's gonna lead to many more fantasy points. I think he got about as much out of it last season as you could hope for. He may not be so lucky this season with regards to fortunate situation. That said, I think the uptick in touches will mean he scores about the same or even a few more points.

Unless Gibbs pretty much completely takes over as the lead RB though, I don't see the upside that Barkley has.

[weepaws 2,693]

Barkley is the upside pick of the two.  

[Ray_T 673]

23 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Barkley is the upside pick of the two.  

yeah, for this year at least.

keeper/dynasty you obviously want the young guy.  but that much is obvious to most of us.

[GobbleDog 890]

On 7/18/2024 at 7:44 AM, wolves111 said:

I'm holding the 10th pick in a 10-team redraft and there are several really good options.

Helped a friend with his draft last night... he was also 10th in a 10-teamer redraft.  Oddly no Te required, just 3 Wr's and a flex. Whatever. Results:

1) AJ Brown 2) Wilson

3) Metcalf 4) Walker

5) Waddle 6) Richardson ... don't know how Waddle fell that far.

7) Z White 8)) Harris

9) Z Moss 10) Singletary

I thought it went really well. 4 stud Wrs and 5 startable Rbs ... Richardson to boot.  I left the draft at that point, but told him to get a good backup Qb in the next few rounds... idiot ended up picking Jayden Daniels. 

[wolves111 82]

That’s a really nice team. Can’t understand why Walker’s adp isn’t higher. 

[GobbleDog 890]

10 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

Can’t understand why Walker’s adp isn’t higher. 

Agreed. Going late 4th in 12 team mocks, which seems too low.

I've watched Youtube vids of games he played last year - not highlights, just random games of all his touches... like to pretend I know what I'm doing, even though I don't.  The word that comes to mind - vision. Jumps off the screen. Patiently waits or follows the right blockers. Which makes him look slow as he's bruising between tackles. But then you see plays where he beats linebackers to the edge... 4.39 speed.  I'm no scout, but I was impressed.

[jrokh 583]

Walker has the talent, but he always seems to have the red + sign next to his name…

[Gepetto 1,113]

Saquon over GIbbs would be my ranking, however I likely won't draft either.