The case against the top RBs

[IGotWorms 3,759]

Really trying to narrow down which RB you want with a top pick (will do a different thread on top WRs).

1. Christian McCaffrey: Durability concerns up until last year. Coming off almost 300 touches so does he wear down?

2. Bijan Robinson: Everyone assumes no Arthur Smith = Bijan unleashed. However, there is word that the new coaching staff wants to keep Allgeier involved.

3. Breece Hall: Hasn’t had a 1,000 yard season. Doesn’t score many rushing TDs. Definitely a little bit of a projection.

4. Jahmyr Gibbs: Can he approach bell cow status with David Montgomery around? Could come back to earth with lower ypc and less rushing TDs.

5a. Saquon Barkley: Lotta mileage. Breaking tackles and yards after contact down. Hurts stealing rushing TDs. Slight injury concern?

5b. Jonathan Taylor: Injuries. Not a top pass catcher.

Thoughts?

Personally I’d go Breece, BJ, Gibbs. It’s a young man’s position 

[wolves111 82]

17 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Really trying to narrow down which RB you want with a top pick (will do a different thread on top WRs).

1. Christian McCaffrey: Durability concerns up until last year. Coming off almost 300 touches so does he wear down?

2. Bijan Robinson: Everyone assumes no Arthur Smith = Bijan unleashed. However, there is word that the new coaching staff wants to keep Allgeier involved.

3. Breece Hall: Hasn’t had a 1,000 yard season. Doesn’t score many rushing TDs. Definitely a little bit of a projection.

4. Jahmyr Gibbs: Can he approach bell cow status with David Montgomery around? Could come back to earth with lower ypc and less rushing TDs.

5a. Saquon Barkley: Lotta mileage. Breaking tackles and yards after contact down. Hurts stealing rushing TDs. Slight injury concern?

5b. Jonathan Taylor: Injuries. Not a top pass catcher.

Thoughts?

Personally I’d go Breece, BJ, Gibbs. It’s a young man’s position 

Kind of gives credence to drafting Wr early and taking second level rbs. 

[weepaws 2,693]

McCaffrey had over 300 touches in 2022 , and came back last season , and finished number 1. 

[JagFan 117]

3 minutes ago, weepaws said:

McCaffrey had over 300 touches in 2022 , and came back last season , and finished number 1. 

If I get the 1 pick there’s no other pick for me.

[weepaws 2,693]

All I’ve been reading about B Robinson has been positive news if you own him.  

Barkley can And should produce rb1 ff numbers. 

B Hall is in a fantastic spot with the return of Rodgers, I think his adp is spot on. 

I’ve been reading that Gibbs will used more often in the slot, so that’s good news, but if Montgomery stays on the field , he’s still the short yardage goal line rb.   At his adp I’ll pass on Gibbs.  

Taylor , mmm Having a tough time with his adp also, Richardson might be the Colts goal line rb.  

 

[weepaws 2,693]

In a small ten team ppr, back to Bach WRs would be the best way imo.  

12-plus I would still go wr/rb either way you like it in ppr.  

In my 14 team non ppr, I’m going rb if I’m picking early, but if I have a late pick I’m probably looking at a stud wr rd1, rb rd2.  

[weepaws 2,693]

4 minutes ago, JagFan said:

If I get the 1 pick there’s no other pick for me.

Agreed.  

[Ray_T 673]

if you have the #1 pick and you are not allowed to trade it,  CMC needs to be who you take.

if you are allowed to trade the pick, I'd at least shop it around to see what you can get.    Im not 100% keen on the durability so if someone gave me a great offer for that #1 pick I'd let them take that risk.  but thats all speculative.   because the next question becomes.... how much is enough to make you part with the pick.

 

[GobbleDog 890]

My rank... 1) McCaff, 2) Hall, 3) Taylor, 4) Bijan. I wouldn't rank Gibbs top 10, nor Barkley top 15... shows what I think of their situations.

The McCaff over-work thing, yeah huge problem. Hell 339 touches last year, think about 668 touches over the past two years. I'd love to see some breakdown of how often Rbs had that amount of touches over a two year span and how they fared the next year... not to mention age 28 with so much millage already. Very few have done it.

But there's no predicting Rb injuries... even the most durable of durable drop like flies (Chubb). Not to mention, under-performance. So much variance at that position. As such, I likely won't be drafting any of them as they won't fall far enough for me to even consider them.

[weepaws 2,693]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

My rank... 1) McCaff, 2) Hall, 3) Taylor, 4) Bijan. I wouldn't rank Gibbs top 10, nor Barkley top 15... shows what I think of their situations.

The McCaff over-work thing, yeah huge problem. Hell 339 touches last year, think about 668 touches over the past two years. I'd love to see some breakdown of how often Rbs had that amount of touches over a two year span and how they fared the next year... not to mention age 28 with so much millage already. Very few have done it.

But there's no predicting Rb injuries... even the most durable of durable drop like flies (Chubb). Not to mention, under-performance. So much variance at that position. As such, I likely won't be drafting any of them as they won't fall far enough for me to even consider them.

You In a redraft league, and if yes, do you already know your draft spot?  

[TBayXXXVII 2,289]

8 hours ago, Ray_T said:

if you have the #1 pick and you are not allowed to trade it,  CMC needs to be who you take.

if you are allowed to trade the pick, I'd at least shop it around to see what you can get.    Im not 100% keen on the durability so if someone gave me a great offer for that #1 pick I'd let them take that risk.  but thats all speculative.   because the next question becomes.... how much is enough to make you part with the pick.

 

In my medium-competitive 10-team office league, I had the #1 pick and traded it to the guy with the #7 pick.  Other than flipping firsts, I got his 2nd, 3rd, & 5th, he got my 6th, 7th, and 8th.

[Ray_T 673]

5 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

In my medium-competitive 10-team office league, I had the #1 pick and traded it to the guy with the #7 pick.  Other than flipping firsts, I got his 2nd, 3rd, & 5th, he got my 6th, 7th, and 8th.

Thats actually very good

[TBayXXXVII 2,289]

36 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

Thats actually very good

LOL, he offered, I just took it.  Honestly, I didn't even read the whole offer.  In that league, I make all kinds of draft trades to see what can happen.  I think a lot of people in the league do the same.  Kind of like a "what do I need to offer"/"what can I get away with", type thing for people to use as a base in their big money leagues.  I may kind of screw other people up though.... I just take offers without really reading them.  It's the offers that I make and deals I initiate, are the ones I care about.

[Ray_T 673]

20 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

LOL, he offered, I just took it.  Honestly, I didn't even read the whole offer.  In that league, I make all kinds of draft trades to see what can happen.  I think a lot of people in the league do the same.  Kind of like a "what do I need to offer"/"what can I get away with", type thing for people to use as a base in their big money leagues.  I may kind of screw other people up though.... I just take offers without really reading them.  It's the offers that I make and deals I initiate, are the ones I care about.

well, its good for you.  I'd take that offer too if someone made one like that to me in that situation

[GobbleDog 890]

6 hours ago, weepaws said:

You In a redraft league, and if yes, do you already know your draft spot?  

Redraft and don't know spot yet. The reason I'm sure I won't get those guys is McCaff would have to fall to 5th - I want those sure-fire Wrs. Hall would have to fall to about 10th, and Taylor/Bijan  would have to fall to early 2nd round. None of that is happening.

[TBayXXXVII 2,289]

15 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

Really trying to narrow down which RB you want with a top pick (will do a different thread on top WRs).

1. Christian McCaffrey: Durability concerns up until last year. Coming off almost 300 touches so does he wear down?

2. Bijan Robinson: Everyone assumes no Arthur Smith = Bijan unleashed. However, there is word that the new coaching staff wants to keep Allgeier involved.

3. Breece Hall: Hasn’t had a 1,000 yard season. Doesn’t score many rushing TDs. Definitely a little bit of a projection.

4. Jahmyr Gibbs: Can he approach bell cow status with David Montgomery around? Could come back to earth with lower ypc and less rushing TDs.

5a. Saquon Barkley: Lotta mileage. Breaking tackles and yards after contact down. Hurts stealing rushing TDs. Slight injury concern?

5b. Jonathan Taylor: Injuries. Not a top pass catcher.

Thoughts?

Personally I’d go Breece, BJ, Gibbs. It’s a young man’s position 

Injuries are always a concern for everyone.  Sure, some may be more expected, but I tend to not care unless it happens every year.  McCaffrey played every game his first 3 seasons.  The first time he got hurt, was the COVID year, where there was not training camp.  As with a lot of star players, I think they're rushed back sooner than they should, he missed a lot of games the following year.  Well, the next two, he played every game... the only game he missed last year was Week 18, where they punted.  So, in 7 seasons, McCaffrey only missed games in 2 of them.  In 2018, he had 328 touches and over 400 the following season.  In 2022, he had over 320 touches and over 320 last year.  He's shown that he can stay healthy and have consecutive workload seasons.  So, he's not, and never has been a durability concern.  If I'm on the clock and am taking a RB, I'm taking McCaffrey over everyone else and it's not even a debate.

I like Robinson's potential in ATL and I think Allgeier being there is a good thing.  It prevents Robinson from being over used.  Last year, the Falcons were 3rd in the NFL in rush attempts behind only Baltimore and Chicago, both who've used their QB as RB's.  I do expect them to be more efficient this year and expect them to throw more than last year, but I think they'll run more plays because they'll have longer drives, so I don't anticipate a big drop in overall rush attempts.

I'm not worried about Hall's TD's because they had trash running the offense the last two seasons and the team didn't score TD's at all.  I mean, I think his 9 TD total is very promising, considering that the team only scored 18 (on offense).  I like the idea of my RB scoring half of his teams total TD's. 

Gibbs to me would be a great flex option/RB2 because I think he is a boom/bust kind of guy.  He played 15 games and had 6 games where he failed to score double digits and 2 more where he was less than 13.  Last year, 23 RB's averaged at least 13 fpg.

I like Barkley a lot.  I think his presence should scare Hurts owners and not the other way around.  Kelce being gone is going to limit the number of TD's that Hurts gets and I believe Barkley will be the beneficiary.  I think Barkley could end up with 15+ total TD's this season.  He is someone who I would be concerned about with durability issues.

I think there should be some durability concerns with Taylor, but based on the build of this team and their offseason moves, he's going to get the ball a lot.  They let Moss walk and they really don't have anyone else to give the ball to that is a concern.  I wouldn't say he's not a threat to catch the ball.  He's averaging about 3 targets and 2.3 receptions a game.  I think 40 receptions is a nice number.

 

Me, I'm going with McCaffrey every day over everyone else.    I'd rank this group as

1. McCaffrey
2. Hall
3. Barkely
4. Robinson
5. Gibbs
6. Taylor

[weepaws 2,693]

52 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Redraft and don't know spot yet. The reason I'm sure I won't get those guys is McCaff would have to fall to 5th - I want those sure-fire Wrs. Hall would have to fall to about 10th, and Taylor/Bijan  would have to fall to early 2nd round. None of that is happening.

Just a question, not a judgement, if you have one of top three picks? 

[GobbleDog 890]

2 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Just a question, not a judgement, if you have one of top three picks? 

Haven't fully decided order, but I'm leaning 1) Hill 2) Chase 3) Lamb 4) St. Brown ....  whatever order I settle on, I'd take any of them and then McCaff. Which ain't happening in any league in the world.

[IGotWorms 3,759]

10 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

My rank... 1) McCaff, 2) Hall, 3) Taylor, 4) Bijan. I wouldn't rank Gibbs top 10, nor Barkley top 15... shows what I think of their situations.

The McCaff over-work thing, yeah huge problem. Hell 339 touches last year, think about 668 touches over the past two years. I'd love to see some breakdown of how often Rbs had that amount of touches over a two year span and how they fared the next year... not to mention age 28 with so much millage already. Very few have done it.

But there's no predicting Rb injuries... even the most durable of durable drop like flies (Chubb). Not to mention, under-performance. So much variance at that position. As such, I likely won't be drafting any of them as they won't fall far enough for me to even consider them.

Gibbs, I think we can all assume what your issue is with him.

But what’s your issue with Barkley? Age? Wear and tear? Hurts vulturing?

I mean, I’m a little leery myself, but out of the top 15? You must really have some significant concerns 

[weepaws 2,693]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

Haven't fully decided order, but I'm leaning 1) Hill 2) Chase 3) Lamb 4) St. Brown ....  whatever order I settle on, I'd take any of them and then McCaff. Which ain't happening in any league in the world.

Thanks for the reply. 

[WhiteWonder 2,391]

18 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

Really trying to narrow down which RB you want with a top pick (will do a different thread on top WRs).

1. Christian McCaffrey: Durability concerns up until last year. Coming off almost 300 touches so does he wear down? CMC was mostly healthy in 2022 as well. I think there is some merit to being on a far superior team with many other weapons around him. RB's can wear down at any time but 2 straight seasons of relative health should ease those concerns a bit.

2. Bijan Robinson: Everyone assumes no Arthur Smith = Bijan unleashed. However, there is word that the new coaching staff wants to keep Allgeier involved.  Can't be any worse. I find it hard to imagine Allgeier being more involved than he was last year, and improved QB play should open things up a bit.

3. Breece Hall: Hasn’t had a 1,000 yard season. Doesn’t score many rushing TDs. Definitely a little bit of a projection.  RB2 last year (RB6 in ppg), how exactly is he a projection? I think people focus too much on the Rodgers stuff and lose sight of the fact that Hall has been a flat out stud with little in his favor. Yes, there will be some projection because even an old Rodgers is far better than prior QB's on the roster but the 1,000 yard season is overblown. He is entering year 3 (injured as a rookie, but put those worries to rest last season).

4. Jahmyr Gibbs: Can he approach bell cow status with David Montgomery around? Could come back to earth with lower ypc and less rushing TDs. I would be surprised to see him acting as a bell cow. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. I would anticipate his role growing a bit but theres no reason Dmont should be going anywhere. 

5a. Saquon Barkley: Lotta mileage. Breaking tackles and yards after contact down. Hurts stealing rushing TDs. Slight injury concern? All very valid concerns. In another thread I pointed out that he had less rushing yards than Hall on more carries. Every point you mentioned is valid. I think the counter argument would be that the Giants never had AJ Brown/ D Smith/ Goedert or a halfway decent offensive line. Hurts may steal goal line TDs, but his threat as a rusher could play to Barkleys favor.

5b. Jonathan Taylor: Injuries. Not a top pass catcher.  Agreed, but he did get paid and should be a bell cow. I think a lot more may ride on the progression of Richardson. 

Thoughts?

Personally I’d go Breece, BJ, Gibbs. It’s a young man’s position 

 

I'll take them one by one in blue font within your quote.

[Maximum Overkill 1,126]

19 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

Personally I’d go Breece, BJ, Gibbs. It’s a young man’s position

I have no problem with that  

[TBayXXXVII 2,289]

2 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Haven't fully decided order, but I'm leaning 1) Hill 2) Chase 3) Lamb 4) St. Brown ....  whatever order I settle on, I'd take any of them and then McCaff. Which ain't happening in any league in the world.

I'd choose Lamb in that group because he's the only guy commanding targets.  I think he could hit 200 targets this year... unless he signs a new deal.

[GobbleDog 890]

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I'd choose Lamb in that group because he's the only guy commanding targets.  I think he could hit 200 targets this year... unless he signs a new deal.

Possible, but 200 might be a stretch. The all-time NFL record is 205 by Marvin Harrison in '02. In '22, Lamb only had 156.  Over the past five years, the league's highest targets were 181, 184, 191, 166, & 185  (last two being 16 games). Whatever... he's going to get a lot of targets - probably among the top five.

I can't blame anyone for taking Lamb first considering he finished 1st last year and 5th in '22. The reason he doesn't top my list is last year took an insane amount of targets (probably happens again), 14 total Tds of which 2 were rushing (not sure if that happens again), and a career season from Dak (not sure if that happens again). But the sheer volume alone should make him a lock for top 5. Seems like a very safe pick.

[GobbleDog 890]

4 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

But what’s your issue with Barkley? Age? Wear and tear? Hurts vulturing?

Barkley's metrics declined from '21 to '22, and again in '23 - and last year was really bad. Once one of the most elusive Rb's in the league, last year his juke rate ranked 48th, true yac 51st, yd per touch 42nd, yds created per touch 46th, etc.  Some blame the declined metrics on a bad Giants team and there might be some truth to that. But that is some serious decline, which should make anyone drafting him nervous.

In New York, Barkley also had the advantage of being on the field all the time with snap counts around 70 to 90%+ (one week last year was 97%). The Eagles have never been that kind of team and there's no guarantee Barkley continues to get that much volume. The Eagles might also want to preserve him for a playoff push, especially given his age and history.

Hurts doesn't throw much to Rbs so no certainty he gets the 50+ receptions some are expecting. Last year Swift - known for receptions, had just 39. In '22 and '21, Gainwell led the Rbs with just 23 and 33 respectively.  But the death nail is the Tush Push which puts a hard cap on his value. Barkley will have to score most of his Tds from distance - which isn't reliable.

Throw in Barkley's age, millage, and injury history for good measure...  I'm out.  He's currently Rb 6.  I think that's ridiculously optimistic. I get the euphoria - The Legendary Barkley going to the high-powered Eagles. Sounds good, but caveat emptor.

[IGotWorms 3,759]

26 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Barkley's metrics declined from '21 to '22, and again in '23 - and last year was really bad. Once one of the most elusive Rb's in the league, last year his juke rate ranked 48th, true yac 51st, yd per touch 42nd, yds created per touch 46th, etc.  Some blame the declined metrics on a bad Giants team and there might be some truth to that. But that is some serious decline, which should make anyone drafting him nervous.

In New York, Barkley also had the advantage of being on the field all the time with snap counts around 70 to 90%+ (one week last year was 97%). The Eagles have never been that kind of team and there's no guarantee Barkley continues to get that much volume. The Eagles might also want to preserve him for a playoff push, especially given his age and history.

Hurts doesn't throw much to Rbs so no certainty he gets the 50+ receptions some are expecting. Last year Swift - known for receptions, had just 39. In '22 and '21, Gainwell led the Rbs with just 23 and 33 respectively.  But the death nail is the Tush Push which puts a hard cap on his value. Barkley will have to score most of his Tds from distance - which isn't reliable.

Throw in Barkley's age, millage, and injury history for good measure...  I'm out.  He's currently Rb 6.  I think that's ridiculously optimistic. I get the euphoria - The Legendary Barkley going to the high-powered Eagles. Sounds good, but caveat emptor.

I certainly get your concerns. The metrics especially give me pause. People say the giants sucked and that’s true, but in theory some of these metrics shouldn’t be much affected by that.

I am not too concerned about the tush push as I believe the eagles will not want to use it as much. People say kelces retirement also will limit it. I don’t know about that but I do think there would be concerns about injury to the QB and then also there’s the possibility the league steps in and bans it. I dunno, I just get the sense they want to move away from that and Barkley is part of that plan.

But is he the same guy as he used to be? Probably not. I doubt he’s fully washed up though and I could see one or two good seasons from him in Philly.

[TBayXXXVII 2,289]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

Possible, but 200 might be a stretch. The all-time NFL record is 205 by Marvin Harrison in '02. In '22, Lamb only had 156.  Over the past five years, the league's highest targets were 181, 184, 191, 166, & 185  (last two being 16 games). Whatever... he's going to get a lot of targets - probably among the top five.

I can't blame anyone for taking Lamb first considering he finished 1st last year and 5th in '22. The reason he doesn't top my list is last year took an insane amount of targets (probably happens again), 14 total Tds of which 2 were rushing (not sure if that happens again), and a career season from Dak (not sure if that happens again). But the sheer volume alone should make him a lock for top 5. Seems like a very safe pick.

You know what, I forgot Cooks was still there.  I thought he went somewhere else when FA started.  Yeah, 200 seems like a stretch now.  LOL

 

[weepaws 2,693]

Swift’s 39 rec was 15 best among Rbs, I think that’s pretty good signs for an uptick like Barkley, Swift also had over one thousand rush yards and scored 6 total tds, I think Barkley is a better rb, And is a better fit.   I think he improves on Swift’s numbers.  

[GobbleDog 890]

1 hour ago, IGotWorms said:

I am not too concerned about the tush push as I believe the eagles will not want to use it as much. People say kelces retirement also will limit it. I don’t know about that but I do think there would be concerns about injury to the QB and then also there’s the possibility the league steps in and bans it. I dunno, I just get the sense they want to move away from that and Barkley is part of that plan.

The rule can't get banned this year as owners already met and made rule changes - tush push remained in tact. It was illegal to push and pull teammates forward... until 2005 when the NFL repealed the "push" part. The logic was refs couldn't easily judge who was pushing who, which led to some bad calls.

In any case, I keep hearing some Barkley supporters say the Eagles want to get away from it, but I haven't heard that from any official sources (coaches). Even if they did say it - I won't believe it til I see it. The Eagles have perfected a damn-near unstoppable play.

[IGotWorms 3,759]

34 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

The rule can't get banned this year as owners already met and made rule changes - tush push remained in tact. It was illegal to push and pull teammates forward... until 2005 when the NFL repealed the "push" part. The logic was refs couldn't easily judge who was pushing who, which led to some bad calls.

In any case, I keep hearing some Barkley supporters say the Eagles want to get away from it, but I haven't heard that from any official sources (coaches). Even if they did say it - I won't believe it til I see it. The Eagles have perfected a damn-near unstoppable play.

Right. The idea is if you’re using it all the time then the NFL might step up and ban it after this year. But that’s definitely speculative on a few levels for sure