Would You Draft Jefferson Round Two

[wolves111 94]

Between the QB situation and his hamstring injuries from last year I’ve seen him drop out of the top 10 in recent mocks. In a ten team league I took him at pick 11.

That said it was after getting Taylor at pick 10 he was technically still my #1 wr.

Worth the risk or pass and take Wilson?

 

[polecatt 471]

All else equal, I think JJ is the best overall WR in the NFL.

I get the concerns with him, but I don't think it should drop him down but so far. Guys like CeeDee Lamb and Ja'Marr Chase are already going above him, as well as a couple of RBs that normally wouldn't either. As far as we know he's completely healthy right now going into the season. I don't think he's more injury prone than anyone else.

I would say he's fallen far enough if he's still available at the 10th pick. I would jump on it

[Showboat 246]

Maybe you should have taken Jefferson and Wilson.  So you are worried about Jefferson's recent injuries but not Taylor's?  Any position in the last half of the first round is a steal for JJ.  Plenty of other receivers (Adams, and Moore for example) have done just fine with suspect QB play.  I'd say JJ is a step above those guys and Darnold will be coached to feed his best player.  While thus far Darnold's results have not been great, he has never really been in a situation conducive to success.  If he truly had no talent or potential, he would have been out of the league already.  He also has that contract year incentive as this is probably his last chance to earn a big payday (similar to Mayfield last year and Evans did quite well as his number 1 receiver)..

[weepaws 3,005]

I think based on volume and talent Jefferson is still worth a late 1st rd pick.  

[kilroy69 1,159]

I think that Darnold was likely a better QB than JJ was anyway. Darnold has a good arm and he knows who to feed.   

[wolves111 94]

2 hours ago, kilroy69 said:

I think that Darnold was likely a better QB than JJ was anyway. Darnold has a good arm and he knows who to feed.   

Are you familiar with wishful thinking?

[Maximum Overkill 1,363]

Jefferson is a dog. I'd certainly take him late first round. I doubt he'll be there 

[Ray_T 718]

Jeffereson has been going in round 1 in all the drafts I've been involved with so far.   and I have no shares of him on any of my teams so far.

not that I dislike him.    I just think hes overvalued considering the QB situation in Minny.

[seafoam1 2,523]

Yes. 

[Chickie 73]

Picking 8th tonight in a PPR redraft. Unless I’m very wrong, he’ll be there. My other options I’m considering is G Wilson and one of the few handful bellcows Taylor and Barkley. With the exception of JJ, all three of the aforementioned options is a bit of a small reach. 

 

[Maximum Overkill 1,363]

1 hour ago, Chickie said:

Picking 8th tonight in a PPR redraft. Unless I’m very wrong, he’ll be there. My other options I’m considering is G Wilson and one of the few handful bellcows Taylor and Barkley. With the exception of JJ, all three of the aforementioned options is a bit of a small reach. 

 

I'd be tempted to take Amon Ra if there. It will be close 

[weepaws 3,005]

2 hours ago, Chickie said:

Picking 8th tonight in a PPR redraft. Unless I’m very wrong, he’ll be there. My other options I’m considering is G Wilson and one of the few handful bellcows Taylor and Barkley. With the exception of JJ, all three of the aforementioned options is a bit of a small reach. 

 

If those are the choices, I’m going Jefferson 

[kcBlitzkrieg 29]

Jefferson went 1.11 in my draft tonight.  

[Ray_T 718]

On 8/18/2024 at 9:56 AM, Ray_T said:

Jeffereson has been going in round 1 in all the drafts I've been involved with so far.   and I have no shares of him on any of my teams so far.

not that I dislike him.    I just think hes overvalued considering the QB situation in Minny.

oh, and to answer the initial question.... yes.  I would pick him in round 2

[Maximum Overkill 1,363]

On 8/18/2024 at 10:11 PM, kcBlitzkrieg said:

Jefferson went 1.11 in my draft tonight.  

I drafted Jefferson at 1.09 in a draft yesterday. I'm pretty happy with that. 

[gcmmidwest 146]

JJ is a tough one.... Do You have faith in darnold ? Scary terry McLaren sucked last couple years because his QB sucked ...now this year I bet he produces.... I just don't see darnold going off minny needs to sign a QB there backups are horrific 

[TBayXXXVII 2,390]

In round 2?  Absolutely.  Darnold isn't good enough to keep Jefferson in the top 3, but Jefferson is good enough to keep himself in the top 7.

[TBayXXXVII 2,390]

23 minutes ago, gcmmidwest said:

JJ is a tough one.... Do You have faith in darnold ? Scary terry McLaren sucked last couple years because his QB sucked ...now this year I bet he produces.... I just don't see darnold going off minny needs to sign a QB there backups are horrific 

I agree with the premise, but the difference is that McLaurin is a "good" receiver, Jefferson is "elite".

[crackills 19]

Have we not learned anything from Adams??? Darnold is a joke. I would not take JJ in the 1st... 2nd rd is value.. so yes

[gcmmidwest 146]

On 8/26/2024 at 8:19 AM, TBayXXXVII said:

I agree with the premise, but the difference is that McLaurin is a "good" receiver, Jefferson is "elite".

He was looking better than good last nite ...I knew the talent was there ... Daniels is putting it there 

[TBayXXXVII 2,390]

16 minutes ago, gcmmidwest said:

He was looking better than good last nite ...I knew the talent was there ... Daniels is putting it there 

I'll still stand by my assessment.  He's good, so he'll have a good/great game from time to time.  He's not a guy who's QB proof.  He needs a good QB to be effective.  Nothing wrong with that as at least he can be good.  There's a lot of guys that no matter how good or great their QB is, they still can't be good... see MVS, Juju, Gabe Davis, as examples.

[Law 239]

I love all of the hot takes about Darnold being hot crap on a stick and Jefferson being a 2nd round pick. 

Spot on so far!

[crackills 19]

Ill admit my mistake... i dont think anyone (including Min FO) thought Darnold would find his inner Manning all of a sudden. I did believe Jefferson was all that.. but didnt think much of his QB. That was warranted from last years Oak and now look at whats happening in Miami and partially Chicago. 

[GobbleDog 918]

9 minutes ago, crackills said:

Ill admit my mistake... i dont think anyone (including Min FO) thought Darnold would find his inner Manning all of a sudden. I did believe Jefferson was all that.. but didnt think much of his QB. That was warranted from last years Oak and now look at whats happening in Miami and partially Chicago. 

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,390]

3 hours ago, Law said:

I love all of the hot takes about Darnold being hot crap on a stick and Jefferson being a 2nd round pick. 

Spot on so far!

Sam Darnold 2021, first 4 games:  67.8%, 1187 yards, 5 TD's, 3 Int's, record 3-1.
Sam Darnold 2021, last 8 (7 starts), games:  55.4%, 1338 yards, 4 TD's, 10 int's, record 1-6.

Those who fail to learn from history, are doomed to repeat it.

 

I still stand by my assessment.  I'd definitely would take him in the 2nd round and I believe he'll be a top 7 WR, just not top 3.  Right now he's WR5.  Sounds right to me. 

 

I also said I don't think he gets 10+ targets a game... so far, he's at 8, 7, 6.

[GobbleDog 918]

6 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I also said I don't think he gets 10+ targets a game... so far, he's at 8, 7, 6.

Vikings have been leading after the 1st quarter in every game this year.  The game was effectively over by 4th quarter in two of those with Vikings leading by so much. 

Those targets will increase once they get into some shootouts.

[TBayXXXVII 2,390]

18 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Vikings have been leading after the 1st quarter in every game this year.  The game was effectively over by 4th quarter in two of those with Vikings leading by so much. 

Those targets will increase once they get into some shootouts.

What if their defense is too good to get into shoot out? 

[GobbleDog 918]

4 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

What if their defense is too good to get into shoot out? 

Vikings defense is probably better than some thought... but regression is a coming.  Vikings over/under wins was 6.5 for a reason.

[Law 239]

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Sam Darnold 2021, first 4 games:  67.8%, 1187 yards, 5 TD's, 3 Int's, record 3-1.
Sam Darnold 2021, last 8 (7 starts), games:  55.4%, 1338 yards, 4 TD's, 10 int's, record 1-6.

Those who fail to learn from history, are doomed to repeat it.

 

I still stand by my assessment.  I'd definitely would take him in the 2nd round and I believe he'll be a top 7 WR, just not top 3.  Right now he's WR5.  Sounds right to me. 

 

I also said I don't think he gets 10+ targets a game... so far, he's at 8, 7, 6.

Wow! I did not know that Darnold was with the Vikings and throwing to the likes of Jefferson in 2021!

I thought he was with dysfunctional Carolina in 2021.

My bad. I'll try to learn better Obi-Wan!

[TBayXXXVII 2,390]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

Vikings defense is probably better than some thought... but regression is a coming.  Vikings over/under wins was 6.5 for a reason.

Sure, I don't discount that and actually think that'll happen.  Just like I think it'll happen to Darnold.  If you take only the games where Darnold threw at least 19 passes (59 games - that's me being nice and not counting a game where he was 5 for 15 for 43 yards and 2 Ints and others alike), obviously still counting this 3 game start... an average 17 game season would be:

322 for 534 (60.3%), 3621 yards, 20 TD's, and 16 Int's (80.8 passer rating)

So, a 59 game sample size and you don't think that it's reasonable to expect Darnold to finish with numbers similar?

[TBayXXXVII 2,390]

43 minutes ago, Law said:

Wow! I did not know that Darnold was with the Vikings and throwing to the likes of Jefferson in 2021!

I thought he was with dysfunctional Carolina in 2021.

My bad. I'll try to learn better Obi-Wan!

DJ Moore in 2021 had 93 receptions for 1157 yards and 4 TD's.  He was WR18 that year.  Clearly, he was a quality receiver.  Even with Justin Fields, Moore was able to post 96, 1364, & 8... good for WR6 last year.

Explain to me why Justin Fields was able to make Moore a top 7 (fantasy WR), and Darnold couldn't get him in the top 15... but Darnold will be able to make Jefferson a top 3 WR.

[weepaws 3,005]

43 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

DJ Moore in 2021 had 93 receptions for 1157 yards and 4 TD's.  He was WR18 that year.  Clearly, he was a quality receiver.  Even with Justin Fields, Moore was able to post 96, 1364, & 8... good for WR6 last year.

Explain to me why Justin Fields was able to make Moore a top 7 (fantasy WR), and Darnold couldn't get him in the top 15... but Darnold will be able to make Jefferson a top 3 WR.

He  already has Jefferson at #5. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,390]

4 minutes ago, weepaws said:

He  already has Jefferson at #5. 

https://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/topic/522341-would-you-draft-jefferson-round-two/?do=findComment&comment=7590201

[Law 239]

Yeah. I don't need to convince you of anything. You play your game, I'll play mine. I look at 2024. You look at 2021! That's cool. To each their own. 

[GobbleDog 918]

58 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

So, a 59 game sample size and you don't think that it's reasonable to expect Darnold to finish with numbers similar?

Nearly all of those games were from Darnold's stint with the Jets and Panthers. I wouldn't put much stock in that given those deplorable situations.  No Qb would've succeeded, especially at Darnold's young age with the Adam Gase led talent-less Jets. 

Darnold is on pace for 45 Tds...  probably won't finish with that many, but your projection of 20 ???  He should easily hit that mark by Week 10.

[TBayXXXVII 2,390]

42 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Nearly all of those games were from Darnold's stint with the Jets and Panthers. I wouldn't put much stock in that given those deplorable situations.  No Qb would've succeeded, especially at Darnold's young age with the Adam Gase led talent-less Jets. 

Darnold is on pace for 45 Tds...  probably won't finish with that many, but your projection of 20 ???  He should easily hit that mark by Week 10.

We'll see what happens come seasons end.

Also, I didn't predict he'd throw 20 TD's.  I never made any predictions.  I said that's what his 17 game season averages.  He will fall somewhere between what he's doing now and those averages.  A regression to the mean.  His completion percentage will drop, his TD% will drop, his INT% will increase.  If you think Jefferson's production will be static or improve while Darnold's production drops, then we'll have to agree to disagree.

You even think he'll hit 20 TD's by Week 10... that's 7 games away.  Darnold is averaging almost 3 per game now.  You're saying that 20 after Week 10 gives him 12 in the next 7 games.  That's almost a 50% drop.

[GobbleDog 918]

5 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

You even think he'll hit 20 TD's by Week 10... that's 7 games away.  Darnold is averaging almost 3 per game now.  You're saying that 20 after Week 10 gives him 12 in the next 7 games.  That's almost a 50% drop.

Actually there's a bye-week in there, but whatever... obviously he won't finish at the insane 45 Tds currently on pace for, but low- mid-30's probably.

Regardless, the most important thing - in three games he's shown he can be a fully competent NFL qb. That's all Jefferson needs to succeed.

[weepaws 3,005]

I said that Darnold has been horrible, but he’s never had s better wr to play with.  What Darnold is doing, is a surprise to me, but good for him, and those ff owners that have him.