The Truthful State of the Election: Landslide confirmed...310 plus EV for Trump!

[jonmx 2,202]

5 minutes ago, Fnord said:

I'm pretty confident in it's definition and usage. That's one of the reasons I posted about it.

Look, I'm not claiming that everyone voting for Trump is pro-fascism; quite the opposite. Most are normal freedom loving people being duped. I don't play games like @jonmx where I accuse everyone that's ever voted Republican of being guilty of supporting all the bad things the GOP has ever attempted. And I'm also not going to guarantee that a Trump victory automatically means we are done as a free nation.

But I do see the parallels, and wish people supporting Trump would see it for themselves. There is nothing being proposed by Harris that is even close to some of the extreme measures put out by Trump, his allies, and Project 2025. I hope I'm wrong about him and what his election might mean.

 

I am not accusing dems of supporting things they attempted, I am accuse those effing bastards of things thst are implemented and in wide usage.   The FBI has issued hundreds of thousands of FISA warrants against American citizens not to stop terrorism, but for spying.   Dozens of federal agencies have highlighted millions of social media posts for deletions.   Dozens of independant media personalities have had their homes raided for frivolous reasons.  There is a coordinated massive censorship alliance between government and big tech and there is not a single Democrats who gives a fuk.   So yeah, you are either fuking ignorant or you support big brother fascism.  

[Fnord 1,664]

2 minutes ago, jonmx said:

 

I am not accusing dems of supporting things they attempted, I am accuse those effing bastards of things thst are implemented and in wide usage.   The FBI has issued hundreds of thousands of FISA warrants against American citizens not to stop terrorism, but for spying.   Dozens of federal agencies have highlighted millions of social media posts for deletions.   Dozens of independant media personalities have had their homes raided for frivolous reasons.  There is a coordinated massive censorship alliance between government and big tech and there is not a single Democrats who gives a fuk.   So yeah, you are either fuking ignorant or you support big brother fascism.  

Got it. All dems/libs bad. Nuanced, insightful, logical thought is lost on you. You'll defend every unconstitutional, freedom-destroying, persecutory thing that Trump does and call everyone else a fascist. You'll proudly help round up the liberals for re-education, won't you? Does it arouse you thinking about it?

Fascist.

[lickin_starfish 1,786]

Hahaha! Get a load of this schit!

 

[TimHauck 2,452]

4 minutes ago, lickin_starfish said:

Hahaha! Get a load of this schit!

 

You fell for fake news.  From the moon

[jonmx 2,202]

5 hours ago, Fnord said:

Got it. All dems/libs bad.

Not at all.  Many are braindead idiots who are easily brainwashed by propaganda and groupthink. 

[jonmx 2,202]

I  am not just guessing that these polls are BS, I know that these polls showing Harris tied or in the lead are BS. 

What these polls are doing is getting a sample size of voters who are 63% white when they know that whites have been 70 to 71 percent of the electorate in recent elections and are not correcting for their sampling error.  What they are doing is correcting for a Dem +4 electorate when Gallup is showowing that this electorate is actually GOP +2 for the first time in decades.  Gallup is the real gold standard for polling but got out of polling for candidates because it is too political. 

These pollsters know their polling is overstating Harris support by 4 to 6 points, but they give the media the talking points propaganda they want.  Trump is up 2 points nationally which means he is winning 300+ electoral votes.  That is not a guess, that is what the data actually shows when you dig beneath their fraudulant manipulations.

[TimHauck 2,452]

10 minutes ago, jonmx said:

I  am not just guessing that these polls are BS, I know that these polls showing Harris tied or in the lead are BS. 

What these polls are doing is getting a sample size of voters who are 63% white when they know that whites have been 70 to 71 percent of the electorate in recent elections and are not correcting for their sampling error.  What they are doing is correcting for a Dem +4 electorate when Gallup is showowing that this electorate is actually GOP +2 for the first time in decades.  Gallup is the real gold standard for polling but got out of polling for candidates because it is too political. 

These pollsters know their polling is overstating Harris support by 4 to 6 points, but they give the media the talking points propaganda they want.  Trump is up 2 points nationally which means he is winning 300+ electoral votes.  That is not a guess, that is what the data actually shows when you dig beneath their fraudulant manipulations.

Newsflash:  ALL polls are BS

[Hardcore troubadour 14,164]

16 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Newsflash:  ALL polls are BS

Why don’t you take the day off? These daily crushing defeats can’t be good for your mental health. Go for a walk. 

[jonmx 2,202]

1 hour ago, TimHauck said:

Newsflash:  ALL polls are BS

The polling data is real.   The problem comes in with the interpretation of that data.  If you want to be in the club where your polls are widely reported in the media and called 'high quality' by the big media owned websites like 538, you adjust your data to produce a result which is positive for the Dems.  

Most pollsters want to be in the big boy club where big tech and establishment media drives traffic to your website and provides funds for your polling.  There are very few honest pollsters who can survive  with being berated and shunned by the establishment.  Censorship is real.  

[Dizkneelande 1,018]

5 minutes ago, jonmx said:

The polling data is real.   The problem comes in with the interpretation of that data.  If you want to be in the club where your polls are widely reported in the media and called 'high quality' by the big media owned websites like 538, you adjust your data to produce a result which is positive for the Dems.  

Most pollsters want to be in the big boy club where big tech and establishment media drives traffic to your website and provides funds for your polling.  There are very few honest pollsters who can survive  with being berated by the establishment.  Censorship is real.  

All the left and their corrupted mouthpiece media do is manipulate. They parrot things like Medicare for all is supported by 65% of the electorate but when you ask if you will support it if that means paying substantially more in taxes and eliminates your private healthcare insurance, it drops into the high 20’s. 

[TimHauck 2,452]

25 minutes ago, jonmx said:

The polling data is real.   The problem comes in with the interpretation of that data.  If you want to be in the club where your polls are widely reported in the media and called 'high quality' by the big media owned websites like 538, you adjust your data to produce a result which is positive for the Dems.  

Most pollsters want to be in the big boy club where big tech and establishment media drives traffic to your website and provides funds for your polling.  There are very few honest pollsters who can survive  with being berated and shunned by the establishment.  Censorship is real.  

Cool, so all polls saying Harris is in the lead are BS and all polls saying Trump is in the lead are accurate?  Just trying to confirm.

[The Real timschochet 5,232]

2 hours ago, TimHauck said:

Cool, so all polls saying Harris is in the lead are BS and all polls saying Trump is in the lead are accurate?  Just trying to confirm.

Not just that- he is also claiming that the polls that have Harris ahead KNOW that they’re wrong but are willing to be embarrassed later on because they want to help the media lie- or something like that. It’s hard to keep straight. 
 

Rasmussen had Harris ahead in his latest poll so he’s obviously part of this leftist conspiracy too. 

[jonmx 2,202]

3 hours ago, TimHauck said:

Cool, so all polls saying Harris is in the lead are BS and all polls saying Trump is in the lead are accurate?  Just trying to confirm.

In this year, that is true.  But what makes polling honest is if they ensure their data correctly represents the electorate.  If their sample severely under represents white voter and Republicans and they do not properly adjust for it, then they are just lying bastards.   I am not calling BS because I don't like the results, I am calling BS because their adjustments are not correcting their known sampling error when they know it over represents Dems.  

[jonmx 2,202]

1 hour ago, The Real timschochet said:

Not just that- he is also claiming that the polls that have Harris ahead KNOW that they’re wrong but are willing to be embarrassed later on because they want to help the media lie- or something like that. It’s hard to keep straight. 
 

Rasmussen had Harris ahead in his latest poll so he’s obviously part of this leftist conspiracy too. 

It is actually easy to keep straight because it is the same all the time.  As far as Ramussen showing a slight Harris lead in one data set, that is within his margin of error.  The difference between Ramussen and the lying bastards is Ramussen will show errors in both directions.   The lying bastards only ever have errors favoring Dems.   A clear sign they are lying.  Statistical errors should be evenly distributed in both directions.   

[jonmx 2,202]

 

Harris's last disparate hope of sweeping the Rust Belt is going going gone.....she is toast...It is so cute the media wants to make this election exciting.

[Sean Mooney 1,815]

1 hour ago, jonmx said:

 

Harris's last disparate hope of sweeping the Rust Belt is going going gone.....she is toast...It is so cute the media wants to make this election exciting.

So your argument is that the media should just treat the election as a foregone conclusion and not try to drive content for the next 3 weeks?

You ever seen the news before?

[TimHauck 2,452]

12 hours ago, jonmx said:

 

Harris's last disparate hope of sweeping the Rust Belt is going going gone.....she is toast...It is so cute the media wants to make this election exciting.

Sweeping?  Isn’t there a middle ground between her sweeping it and her having “no chance” in those swing states?

[jonmx 2,202]

35 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Sweeping?  Isn’t there a middle ground between her sweeping it and her having “no chance” in those swing states?

 

Harris has to sweep those to win.  Her path to victory was very small.  As soon as they call PA going to Trump on election night, it will be over and you can go to bed. 

[TimHauck 2,452]

3 minutes ago, jonmx said:

 

Harris has to sweep those to win.  Her path to victory was very small.  As soon as they call PA going to Trump on election night, it will be over and you can go to bed. 

Maybe, but I’m more thinking of your guarantee of Trump getting over 310 EV’s

[jonmx 2,202]

11 hours ago, Sean Mooney said:

So your argument is that the media should just treat the election as a foregone conclusion and not try to drive content for the next 3 weeks?

You ever seen the news before?

My arguement is the media should report news and not manufacture fake polls to influence results.   If this situation was reversed, the media would be pitting out polls showing Harris with a 10-point lead.  The media cares about pimping for the leftist establishment than ratings.  

[avoiding injuries 1,363]

The betting market would have Trump at 100% if it weren’t for the risk of the steal. 

[Sean Mooney 1,815]

11 minutes ago, jonmx said:

My arguement is the media should report news and not manufacture fake polls to influence results.   If this situation was reversed, the media would be pitting out polls showing Harris with a 10-point lead.  The media cares about pimping for the leftist establishment than ratings.  

They are not manufacturing polls. If anything they are looking at too many polls and just reporting what they are saying which doesn't work because all the polls sample differently which leads to different results.

The last sentence you wrote is just ridiculous. 

[jonmx 2,202]

3 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Maybe, but I’m more thinking of your guarantee of Trump getting over 310 EV’s

 

Trump is pretty solidly at 268 without those.   If Kamala were to sweep those she could get up to 270 and win.  When thos 19, 15, and 10 EVs go to Trump, he ends up at 312.  That is the most likely result.   If it really turns into a blowout and ends up in complete disaster, couple more states out of these NM, NH, VA, and MN could flip to Trump.  

Harris picking off NC, GA, AZ, or NV just ain't happening.  

[jonmx 2,202]

Trump up over 12 points in betting markets.

Delusional leftist remain in denial.  

[The Real timschochet 5,232]

57 minutes ago, jonmx said:

Trump up over 12 points in betting markets.

Delusional leftist remain in denial.  

So are the polls. 

[squistion 1,657]

1 hour ago, jonmx said:

Trump up over 12 points in betting markets.

Delusional leftist remain in denial.  

You should make enough to retire on this if you are right jonny. Don't pass up this golden opportunity to be set for life.

[OldMaid 2,108]

On 10/15/2024 at 4:29 AM, Sean Mooney said:

They are not manufacturing polls. If anything they are looking at too many polls and just reporting what they are saying which doesn't work because all the polls sample differently which leads to different results.

There is actually some debate surrounding this. 1 Dem and 1 Rep strategist seem to think the GOP is flooding the zone with crap polls. Apparently they did it in the 2022 midterms, as well.

[jonmx 2,202]

10 minutes ago, OldMaid said:

There is actually some debate surrounding this. 1 Dem and 1 Rep strategist seem to think the GOP is flooding the zone with crap polls. Apparently they did it in the 2022 midterms, as well.

Nearly every pollster has a strong Democrat-biased i. All their results.  They have been off 5 points the last two presidential elections in favor of Democrats.  Are you stupid.   The Dems are the ones putting out bad polls with obscene over-sampling of Dem voters..  Nobody was polling 538 districts, so the 2022 polls weren't off.   The 2022 guesses were off.   

[OldMaid 2,108]

16 minutes ago, jonmx said:

Nearly every pollster has a strong Democrat-biased i. All their results.  They have been off 5 points the last two presidential elections in favor of Democrats.  Are you stupid.   The Dems are the ones putting out bad polls with obscene over-sampling of Dem voters..  Nobody was polling 538 districts, so the 2022 polls weren't off.   The 2022 guesses were off.   

I’ve already posted the links, Jon. Not my fault you didn’t read it. Looks like 1 of us will have the satisfaction of being right. I’m pretty confident.

[lickin_starfish 1,786]

How to repulse the neighborhood : r/TheBidenshitshow (reddit.com)

[jonmx 2,202]

6 hours ago, OldMaid said:

I’ve already posted the links, Jon. Not my fault you didn’t read it. Looks like 1 of us will have the satisfaction of being right. I’m pretty confident.

 

You posted links from your propaganda sources.  Very i.pressive.   I am sure they had fabulous rock-solid analysis which could be easily picked apart by a second-grader.  

[jonmx 2,202]

6 hours ago, squistion said:

You should make enough to retire on this if you are right jonny. Don't pass up this golden opportunity to be set for life.

You are not going to become rich when you have to bet $150 just to win $100.  

[seafoam1 2,537]

2 hours ago, lickin_starfish said:

How to repulse the neighborhood : r/TheBidenshitshow (reddit.com)

 

[League Champion 1,790]

On 9/27/2024 at 12:09 PM, MDC said:

I don’t doubt Vance is a smart guy. Unfortunately, he struggles to impersonate an earthling and has whatever the opposite of “charisma” is. 

Every time I see him speak I’m reminded of Peefoam trying to convince the GC that he’s a successful well-liked retiree.  

Listen to yourself! You're voting for Kamala. Even in her racist accents she can't put together a coherent sentence. 

She hasn't told you how she's going to fix the problems that SHE CREATED. I'm middle class, I'm middle class, I have a gun, I have a gun. So F'ing what!!! 

[squistion 1,657]

3 hours ago, jonmx said:

You are not going to become rich when you have to bet $150 just to win $100.  

If it is a sure thing as you think, then bet six figures (take a loan if need be as you think the result is guaranteed).

[jonmx 2,202]

2 hours ago, squistion said:

If it is a sure thing as you think, then bet six figures (take a loan if need be as you think the result is guaranteed).

He has had 2 very serious assassination attempts.   Trump is winning if he survives.  

[TimHauck 2,452]

14 hours ago, jonmx said:

Trump up over 12 points in betting markets.

Delusional leftist remain in denial.  

Is it a safe assumption to say that conservatives are probably more likely to be gamblers than libs?

And don’t betting lines move based on how the money is coming in?

So all this really means is more people are betting on Trump, which isn’t a surprise to me given the first point.

[jonmx 2,202]

18 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Is it a safe assumption to say that conservatives are probably more likely to be gamblers than libs?

And don’t betting lines move based on how the money is coming in?

So all this really means is more people are betting on Trump, which isn’t a surprise to me given the first point.

All metrics point to Trump winning.

Early voting by party

Party identification.

Economic conditions

Who better handles top issues

Key demographics shifting to Trump

Battleground polling

Betting Markets

The only thing floating the BS narrative that this is tied are media driven polls which intentionally oversample Democrat voters.  If you want an honest assessment it looks horrible for Harris.   She is doing 4 to 8 points worse than Hillary 2016 and Biden 2020.  Harris will lose by 2 to 3 points nationally. 

[TimHauck 2,452]

8 minutes ago, jonmx said:

 Harris will lose by 2 to 3 points nationally. 

In what, popular vote?  What metric is the “Trump up 12 points in betting markets” referring to?

[avoiding injuries 1,363]

Biden moves ahead of Harris on Polymarket.